Long-suffering Kansas football fans didn’t need Las Vegas’ input to know the Jayhawks aren’t expected to win the Big 12 this fall, in new head coach Lance Leipold’s first season.
While various sports books and websites have continued this summer to roll out some exceedingly long odds for KU football, some new over/under bets posted this week by SportsBettingDime.com figure to be more compelling for those who follow the Jayhawks.
First of all, SBD, which posted regular season statistical over/unders for every Power Five program, landed on 1.0 wins for KU football’s over/under total in 2021. Basically, the Jayhawks are expected to open the Leipold era with a victory over South Dakota on Sept. 3, but play the familiar role of underdog in every other game on the schedule.
Do you think KU can pull off an upset on the road at Coastal Carolina or Duke early in the season? Or beat — just one of — any of the other nine Big 12 programs? If you do, well, you may consider this over/under a source of some easy money.
The most eye-grabbing portion of SBD’s over/under offerings, though, had to do with KU’s personnel. The site is essentially predicting that former North Texas starter Jason Bean will emerge as the Jayhawks’ starting quarterback for 2021.
The online sports book placed the over/under for Bean’s passing yards during his first season in a KU uniform at 1,415.5, and gave the incoming transfer QB an over/under passing touchdowns total of 12.5.
And if you really want to go crazy, SBD has odds for Bean winning the Heisman Trophy at +200,000.
In 2020, Bean was involved in a QB competition with the Mean Green throughout much of the season. Bean threw for 1,131 yards and 14 touchdowns in eight appearances. He went 79-for-145 through the air, with five interceptions and finished with a 54.5% completion percentage.
All of that being said, there’s also a chance Bean could end up as a backup QB for KU. Remember: the Jayhawks haven’t even practiced under Leipold yet, and the QB race truly will be determined during preseason camp, when Leipold and his staff finally get to evaluate all of the QBs live and in person.
The betting experts at SBD also have over/unders for KU’s potential leading rusher and receiver. The sports book zeroed in on No. 0, Velton Gardner, as the likely top runner. Gardner’s over/under for total rushing yards this fall was set at 650.5.
Headed into his third season with the Jayhawks, Gardner is coming off an injury-shortened sophomore campaign, during which the 5-foot-9, 195-pound back from Dallas played in six games but still led the team in rushing. Gardner ran for 325 yards and two TDs in 2020, when he averaged 4.5 yards per carry.
The running back room, though, appears to be crowded this year, with Daniel Hishaw Jr. and Amauri Pesek-Hickson returning and standout Lawrence High product Devin Neal joining the group.
Who will be the Jayhawks’ top passing target? If SBD’s projections are right, it will be the same man who led the receiving unit last year, Kwamie Lassiter II. A super-senior with more college game experience than the other wideouts in the group, Lassiter was given an over/under of 687.5 total receiving yards.
That number would be a new career high for Lassiter, who in eight starts and one appearance as a reserve in 2020 led KU with 458 receiving yards and 43 receptions.
Other potential leading receivers for the Jayhawks this season include former Buffalo receiver Trevor Wilson, sophomore Luke Grimm, redshirt freshman Lawrence Arnold and sophomore Steven McBride.
Oh, yeah. Back to those Big 12 odds. SBD has the Jayhawks at +25,000 just to make the conference title game. Of course, winning the Big 12 is even more of a long shot, at +75,000.
2021 KU football schedule
Sept. 3 — South Dakota, 7 p.m. (ESPN+)
Sept. 10 — at Coastal Carolina, 6:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
Sept. 18 — Baylor, 2:30 p.m. (ESPN+)
Sept. 25 — at Duke
Oct. 2 — at Iowa State
Oct. 9 — Bye week
Oct. 16 — Texas Tech
Oct. 23 — Oklahoma
Oct. 30 — at Oklahoma State
Nov. 6 — Kansas State
Nov. 13 — at Texas
Nov. 20 — at TCU
Nov. 27 — West Virginia
Kansas football fans, you may want to sit down for this.
Oddsmakers don’t like the Jayhawks chances of winning the Big 12 title this year.
Obviously that doesn’t come as a surprise to anyone. But if you follow the Jayhawks closely, the types of odds and props that SportsBettingDime.com put out this week are likely to intrigue in some fashion, even if you don’t want to send any of your hard-earned money in the direction of these outcomes.
Oklahoma, Texas and Oklahoma State are SBD’s favorites to win the Big 12 championship in 2020, while KU head coach Les Miles, a former SEC and national championship winner at LSU, leads a Jayhawks roster the gambling site considers a whopping 50,0000/1 long shot. (The second-longest odds are West Virginia at 105/1.)
What are the chances of KU finishing the Big 12 schedule in one of the top two spots in the standings, assuring the Jayhawks of a berth in the title game? SBD put those odds at 25,000/1.
In this sure to be strange 10-game season in the age of COVID-19, one normal expectation is that the Jayhawks will have to shock some people to win more than a couple games. SBD put KU’s over/under at 2.0 wins for the year.
Fortunately, the gambling experts also delivered some more captivating odds for individual players. Along with declaring KU star running back Pooka Williams a 350/1 dark horse for the Heisman Trophy, SBD placed his total rushing yards over/under at 965.5.
Williams already is a two-time 1,000-yard rusher, going for 1,125 yards as a freshman and 1,061 more as a sophomore. He put up those numbers while playing 11 games in each season. For his career he’s averaging 99.4 rushing yards per game. If Williams maintains that and stays healthy in 2020, he’d come close to a third 1,000-yard season.
Considering KU doesn’t have an obvious starting quarterback at this point, projecting passing numbers is a little trickier. But SBD provided some anyway. The site put Andrew Parchment’s over/under for receiving yards at 605.5. In his first season with the Jayhawks in 2019, Parchment played in all 12 games, finished with 831 yards and averaged 69.2 a game.
SBD also set over/unders for whomever finishes the season as KU’s leading passer (whether that’s Thomas MacVittie, Miles Kendrick or maybe even someone else). Will KU’s leading passer this year throw for more or fewer than 1,550.5 yards and 9.5 touchdowns? That’s for you to decide. Last year Carter Stanley started every game for KU and turned in 2,664 passing yards with 24 touchdowns.
If you’re so daring you also can place a bet on who will start the most games at QB for KU this year. SBD has MacVittie as the favorite, with 2/3 odds, followed by Kendrick at 7/3 and true freshman Jalon Daniels at 9/1.
SportsBettingDime.com’s 2020 Big 12 champion odds
Oklahoma State: 9/2
Iowa State: 8/1
Kansas State: 71/1
Texas Tech: 95/1
West Virginia: 105/1