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Will Andrew Wiggins average over/under 18 points next season?

Huntington Prep basketball player Andrew Wiggins smiles along side his mother Marita Payne-Wiggins, right, as he announces his commitment to Kansas University during a ceremony on Tuesday, May 14, 2013, at St. Joseph High School in Huntington W.Va. The Canadian star, a top prospect, averaged 23.4 points and 11.2 rebounds per game this season for West Virginia's Huntington Prep.

Huntington Prep basketball player Andrew Wiggins smiles along side his mother Marita Payne-Wiggins, right, as he announces his commitment to Kansas University during a ceremony on Tuesday, May 14, 2013, at St. Joseph High School in Huntington W.Va. The Canadian star, a top prospect, averaged 23.4 points and 11.2 rebounds per game this season for West Virginia's Huntington Prep.

I guess Andrew Wiggins is kind of a big deal.

Not only has he moved the Kansas men's basketball team from 30-to-1 odds to win the national championship to 7.5-to-1, but the site Bovada also had individual odds on whether Wiggins would score over or under 18 points per game next season. No other college player was given similar attention on the site.

This actually brings up a good question: Will Wiggins average more or less than 18 points per game for KU next season?

Let's examine:

3 reasons Wiggins could average 18 points per game

• Opportunity: KU doesn't return much in the way of proven scorers. It'd even be different if a guy like Jeff Withey (13.7 points per game last year) was coming back.

Really, though, who is a guarantee to score more than 10 points per game next year? I would think most KU fans would say a healthy Perry Ellis should, but other than that, what guarantees are there? Wayne Selden is athletic, but will he be an immediate scorer? Conner Frankamp is a great shooter, but how many minutes will he get right away? Tarik Black is a nice addition, but his stats indicate he's more of a complimentary scorer rather than a go-to one.

If Wiggins is the "alpha dog" that KU coach Bill Self says he is, then it's definitely possible he'll be shooting a high percentage of the Jayhawks' shots on a team that doesn't return any starters from a year ago.

• Pace: With athletic players like Wiggins and Selden — and no lumbering centers to slow down the offense — KU should be looking to push the pace in 2013-14. And obviously, more possessions would give Wiggins extra shots to get to the magic 18 point-per-game number.

McDonald's East All-American's Andrew Wiggins (22) and Julius Randle (30) battle for a rebound during the second half of the McDonald's All-American Boys basketball game in Chicago on April 3, 2013.

McDonald's East All-American's Andrew Wiggins (22) and Julius Randle (30) battle for a rebound during the second half of the McDonald's All-American Boys basketball game in Chicago on April 3, 2013.

Self's green light: When Self has had talented offensive players in the past, he's practically begged them to shoot more ... even if they didn't.

KU guard Sherron Collins said that, in practice, Brandon Rush would have to run on the treadmill if he passed up a jumpshot.

This past season, KU guard Ben McLemore often talked about how Self wanted him to be more aggressive, including this quote from a story in late January:

“Coach Self always stresses to me that he needs me to be more aggressive, and I need to create more opportunities offensively to get myself open one pass away. I need to get myself open. I need to do a better job of that. I didn’t plug myself in the first half. I wasn’t aggressive like coach wants me to be. Coach told me to go out second half and be more aggressive and plug myself in.”

Wiggins likely won't hear any grumblings from Self if he decides to be an ultra-assertive player on the offensive end.

3 reasons Wiggins won't average 18 points per game

Schedule: Let's face it: It's much easier to put up points against patsies.

It'll be much tougher for KU players to rack up the points in the non-conference season this year, as the Jayhawks' slate is loaded with contests against Duke, Florida, New Mexico, Georgetown and San Diego State — and that's not even counting a three-game trip to the Bahamas in the Battle 4 Atlantis. Even some of the "easier" games aren't that easy, as Iona (101) and Towson (168) finished in the top half of KenPom's rankings a year ago.

If Wiggins gets to 18 points per game next season, he'll have earned it against what is sure to be a top-five schedule.

18's a high number: Only 48 players averaged 18 points or more per game last season, and just four of those players were on teams that finished the year in the AP top 25 (Creighton's Doug McDermott, Ohio State's Deshaun Thomas, Louisville's Russ Smith and Michigan's Trey Burke). Notice also that none of those players were freshmen.

If you're wondering about Self's 10-year history at KU ... only two players have topped the 18-point-per-game barrier.

Top PPG players under Self

Top PPG players under Self by Jesse Newell

The top freshman scorer under Self? That would be McLemore, who averaged 15.9 PPG last season.

History of No. 1 prospects: To see how other top-ranked prospects had fared in their first year of college, I looked up the No. 1 recruits over the last eight seasons in the RSCI rankings (which compiles many recruiting rankings to make a comprehensive list). I then looked at how many points per game each player scored in his freshman season.

Only one — USC's O.J. Mayo — averaged more than 18 points per game.

RSCI No. 1s

RSCI No. 1s by Jesse Newell

Interesting, only two players on that list averaged more than 16 points per game, which shows how difficult it has been in the past for a top recruit to step in and produce big point numbers right away at a top program.

Final verdict

Your answer to this question probably depends on your view of Wiggins.

Is he the best high-school basketball player since LeBron James, as a few analysts have claimed? If he's that kind of talent, he should get 18 points per game fairly easily.

If, talent-wise, he's around what the other No. 1 recruits have been, then it's a much tougher question to answer. Most No. 1 guys don't step immediately into blueblood programs and average 18 points per game, but then again, most No. 1 guys aren't entering a team with no returning starters and a coach that has pleaded with his elite players to shoot more in the past.

For me, I'll say Wiggins finishes just under 18 points per game. I think he'll definitely be above McLemore's 15.9 last year, but getting 18-plus against the schedule KU has next year will be a difficult task.

Vegas usually isn't off by much, and I don't think it is here, either. I'll say Wiggins ends somewhere around Marcus Morris' mark of 17.2 PPG in 2010-11.

But I'm definitely not confident enough to put my money where my mouth is.

What do you think: over or under 18 points per game for Wiggins next season? Be sure to vote in our online poll.

More from Jesse Newell

  • Here's what type of player KU is getting in Tarik Black
  • Seen it? The nation's reaction to top recruit Andrew Wiggins choosing Kansas
  • Here's what type of player KU is getting in Hunter Mickelson
  • Ranking the top 10 dunks of 2012-13
  • How a fingertip, a late rotation and a great player contributed to Michigan's frantic comeback over KU
  • ;

    Comments

    yovoy 11 months ago

    I've wondered how well Mr. Wiggins will score for the year he's here. I wasn't thinking anywhere near 18; I was thinking 15ish, but many above make the great point that we don't return much scoring. I'm also thinking that his ppg avg, is going to depend on they "type" of scoring he does.

    That said, I'm wondering how "assertive" we want him to be. If he's as an efficient scorer as BMac, then by all means, he should try to fill it up every night. I just wonder how we will feel when he puts it up 18-30 times/game, and goes 6-for-23. I'm guessing it will depend on if we win or if we lose those games.

    I'm guessing that he will facilitate much more than any of us would imagine. I can see this kid having ~6 assists/game, I can also see him making it to the line, and getting lots of points that way. I'm guessing that he'll avg. 4-6 "junk" points (stickbacks, tips, loose-ball layups). I also believe his ppg will depend on our guards and how well they shoot the ball. If teams try to play gimmicky to keep AW out of the paint, our guys will have to knock down some jumpers, and everyone will have to be acconted for: that leave AW space to work. Putting it all together, if he's a volume shooter (10-15 ppg easy), adding junk points (4 ppg), and f/t (6-10 ppg), then he could be closer to 20 by the end. If he's not volume shooting, those numbers might be lower, but the results might make us happier when all is said and done. If he's volume AND efficient like BMac, then the sky is the limit.

    I like to use Sherron as an example: at any point in his career, he could've gotten the team 15-20 ppg, and in a variety of ways: from distance, driving it, and f/t. He kept us in lots of games by force of will, and even if he didn't have much of a cast, he had a good enough cast that he didn't have to do as much as he tried to. He cost others "development" time, and we faded before many felt we should've. The kid came here ready-made, but he had to wait the system. When he WAS the system, we didn't do so well. AW is supposed to be much more ready-made than Sherron, but he joins a team that's much like the team Sherron had his last 2 years: it had some stars, but they weren't quite ready to shine. I hope this crew is ready to. By Feb/March, I'm guessing that AW will be averaging the number of points he needs to for the team to win. I'm not sure we'll see that early-on though.

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    ollerfarm 11 months ago

    Nadar is another TTaylor. Ball sticks in his hands, if only he was as good as he thinks he is, that would be great. Bill needs a freasman starting point guard with Nadar coming off the bench. I don't think KU can win the NCAA chanp with N.T. at starting point.

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    REHawk 11 months ago

    If he stays healthy, I envision Alpha Dog scoring 14-19 points, game in and out, with a half dozen 23+ games sprinkled throughout the season. I can see JoJo averaging 12 pts. after the first of Feb. And I anticipate that our long range scorers pitch in a handful of 20+ performances. On nights when the opposition is stacked unfavorably against Wiggins, or when his touch is missing, I think Self has a bevy of remedies encased in this scholarship lineup. Am tapping my toes in eager anticipation of this season's tipoff.

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    GabrielMichael 11 months ago

    Don't care too much how much he scores as long as we share the ball and attack. I believe our dribble/drive penetration has potential to be the best we've seen at Kansas.

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    Scott Smetana 11 months ago

    Other Las Vegas Over/Unders:

    87 - Average lines of each Jaybate post this year 11 - Times this season Calipari says, "We have freshmen playing like freshmen" 3,500 - KU fans in Allen Field House West in December 7 - Comparisons made each game by commentators between BMac and Wiggins 10:1 - Odds KU goes 40-0 this season

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    Ralster Jayhawk 11 months ago

    Cont'd: And within the context of the above, Self has got to be pumped (doing his MC Hammer-slide dance) to get a 6'9, 260+ pound Tarik Black--why?? Because he already is able to set devastating screens off-ball, thus allowing the slashers a much easier path to the basket. Or if a help defender rotates over, then Black releases for the assist dunk, just as we saw in that Ytube clip of him in Newell's other article about TBlak. Thinking about it from Self's perspective, having an experienced guy like TBlak on BOTH ends of the court, opens up many possibilities. There's a reason Duke and others were so hot after Black, maybe more for what it does for the other 4 players, than just simply TBlak's personal stat numbers. Coach K made a major attempt to get Tarik for his depleted frontcourt, which, analytically begs one to look 'past' Tarik's personal stats and ask "why did Coach K (&Self) want him so bad". Now add the TBlak Factor to the Wiggins factor and the Tharpe/Ellis/Selden/Frankamp/Embiid factors, and opposing coaches are already experiencing a complex set of symptoms including losing sleep, bowel issues, emotional fluctuations, irritability, headaches, etc...

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    Ralster Jayhawk 11 months ago

    I say Wiggy hits 18ppg. His skillset is different than BMac's, TRob's, and Marcus's. But that's the main attraction for the coming season. BUT, do not sleep on the supporting cast, as they are no slouches...I disagree with all this yearly "where's our points going to come from" talk...My god, are people simply unable to understand what THIS team's system is, after all these years of watching Self's product?? Answer: the whole team scores in a variety of ways. That is how bigmen who didnt do much one year, seemingly "rise" to the occasion, chiefly because they have practiced the plays relentlessly, and then... they get a ton of mpg, which then equates to plenty of "high% looks" when its their time to shine. (Creating yet another Bill Self success story in player development). Why would it be any different this year? Of course Perry Ellis will avg 12-14ppg. He is the alpha of the bigs, and has more ability and polish than soph Marcus did. Forget about Tharpe??? All the focus elsewhere is going to leave backdoor slashes or penetration floaters for him, and he isnt shy about 3att's. Tharpe easily avg 10+ppg. He took notes from "good" Tyshawn...and has that swagger factor+Selfball experience. Tharpe's odds are stacked in his favor. He has the aggressive-guard personality, while we all saw EJ's "attack" personality was just naturally different (not a knock on EJ). So the counterpoint could be: well, why would Wiggins, who does NOT know all our plays or have experience in Selfball, come in and top 18ppg? Because he can get to the rim like a very good guard, and he also happens to be 6'7, and also has developed the skillset+mentality to do it. There is a reason he is #1 (multiple factors). Remember how quick, fast, fearless Tyshawn was our offense for many, many stretches when TRob was doubled-up? Now we have a 6'7 alpha-attack type guy coming in. It may make us look like dribble-drive at times, but Self also is on-record as telling Tyshawn at several key moments to "just drive it" (that familiar 'go get a bucket', when we need it). Watch '13-14JHawks explode...

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    Tony Bandle 11 months ago

    THIS IS WHY JAYHAWK NATION ARE THE BEST FANS IN THE WORLD!!!!

    The string of posts on both sides of this issue are well-thought and expressed with poise and passion. Not only are the regulars on their game but new guys show up and hit home runs as well [2ndprize who are you and where did YOU come from..welcome aboard!! ].

    JESSE, I think all you have to do is every day just ask one question, " What do you think of Jayhawk basketball?" and all of us posters will take care of the rest!!

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    thmdmph 11 months ago

    One of Self's first thoughts after learning of Wiggins' signing is that KU's fan base will be very impressed when we first see Wiggins plays in Lawrence. Wiggins is super athletic and versatile with lots of weapons. It's all speculations at this point, but with what we know now, I think the probability that he scores +18 is much higher than -18 probability. I actually think he'll be 20+ player. It also depends largely on the rest of the team and his own development.

    Many past years, before the season begins, we felt KU is talented and deep, but when the season begins, we find out we lack fire power, depth, a go-to guy or enough talent to draw double teams away from our team's top offensive threat. This next year, Wiggins' production depends on how his teammates develops. As of today, I think they will punish doubling down on Wiggins.

    The up coming team is horribly athletic and well rounded. Wiggins and JoJo are very athletic for their positions and definitely plays above the rim. Talking about playing above the rim, Selden definitely fits that mold and helps speed up the game and deflects attention from Wiggins. Talking about speeding up the game and deflecting defensive attentions, seeing his U17 game this past year, Frankamp's driving skills through the lanes can also help with that as well. He definitely has the sharp shooting skills to open up the half court game for Wiggins to drive.

    With Wiggins driving, you can't really leave Ellis, Jojo, or Black undefended. Black is a killer when assisted down low. Ellis is a man on his own rights and can create his own shots. JoJo, with his athleticism and depending on weight training and play time, can also makes the defense think twice about leaving him to double Wiggins. Finally, the captain of the ship, Naadir, another year wiser and more experienced, can also open up the half court and minimize doubling on Wiggins. Being a year wiser, if he becomes more patient and is able to slow down the game in his head and see the court better, this would also help Wiggins with assists, not that Wiggins needs any.

    I don't see how the defense can lay off any of these guys to double down on Wiggins, as previous teams would have allowed. Last year, in tournament plays and in crunch times, teams were able to completely play off Young. No more.

    As for his development, he's good from beyond the 15 & 20' range, but Wiggins can definitely become more consistent (be like Mac). That will make defending him so much more difficult.

    Lastly, I think the higher profile schedule will help Wiggins get the +20 points average. Wiggins does have tendency to tone down his games in some mundane matches. He thrives when the pressure is on. Part of Bill's job this year is to get Wiggins to come ready to play each and every games. KU's 2013-14 schedule make that easier.

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    jaybate 11 months ago

    Part 2

    Self's teams all become like good pitchers with a number of speeds on a number of different types of pitches. Self's offenses keep changing up on the defenses, so that the defenses are never "comfortable," are never quite sure of the pace of the attack. But they do so based on what is given both in the opponents defensive skeme and the opponents match-ups at any given moment of substitutions.

    It doesn't take a rocket scientist to look at this team and see that there is going to be a two pronged attack with Andrew and Perry, two natural scorers with great physical abilities, too.

    The obvious missing link is a dominant defensive rebounder, like Thomas Robinson, or a tirelessly scrappy tandem of less dominant boarders like Kevin and Jeff.

    With Perry needing to do A LOT of scoring, the other big is going to have to get on the glass along with Selden and Wiggins, when Wiggins is not pulling the trigger.

    Self has to be hoping that among Black, Jamari, Lucas, and Embiid, someone (or some committe) emerges as a kind of Thomas Robinson that doesn't have to score.

    But everyone of these guys has big question marks about his rebounding.

    Black, according to Jesse's research, has never been much of a defensive rebounder.

    Jam Tray is one of those great leaping studs that does not seem to have the "knack" of rebounding.

    Lucas we don't know about, because we haven't seen him. We have to hope he was given a rouge smoking jacket, because he could grab some caroms.

    Embiid's height makes him a hugely appealing candidate, to both rebound and block and alter, but he is reputedly raw and skinny.

    Somethings never change in basketball.

    Great drivers can't be great drivers unless they can pot the triceratop and have a teammate that can keep the defense honest on the back side.

    You've got to have someone that can go get the basketball when the opponents miss.

    And you've got to have someone that can protect and distribute the ball, presumably Naadir.

    And everyone's got to be able to guard their position and help.

    Oh,and someone's got to be able to feed the post.

    Its amazing how hard it is to find all of this each season even at the top programs.

    Self is so successful largely because he keeps finding these pieces.

    If Andrew, or Wayne, can't drain the trey at 40%, then maybe Conner, AWIII, or Greene can.

    And even if they can't, you could play a damned good game of grind it out on the bounce with Wayne's muscle and Andrew's length.

    But defensive rebounding--you just gotta have it. And so there could be a real problem, unless some guys show some serious chops in short order.

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    jaybate 11 months ago

    Part 1

    First, Andrew Wiggins scoring hinges on his own 3PT shooting and on Wayne Selden's 3PT shooting. Andrew has to shoot it very well, or they will just lay way off of him and clobber him off the bounce. Wayne has to shoot it well enough to keep the defense from sagging back side to clog Andrew's alleys to iron. To get the most out of Andrew, it takes both.

    Numerically speaking, If Andrew can shoot 40% from trey, and Wayne can shoot even 38% from trey (or if someone else among AWIII, Greene and Conner can shoot 45% from trey), then Andrew Wiggins holds such a phenomenal MUA putting it on the deck that he could easily (and probably will have to) average 25 ppg on next year's team, while Perry averages 20 ppg, and the other two starters and two subs chip in 25 to get the team to the magic number of Okie Ball: 70, as in 70 point take what they give us.

    Without Andrew AND Wayne (or someone else) accurate from trey, then it is sag city and in D1, Andrew will be fouled so much that his get to the rim game will be slowed to a grind.

    Next, will board rats please stop with the running?

    Bill Self has been here almost a decade and his teams have never run more than situationally, regardless of personnel. It is now fair to say that his teams are never going to play a buzzer to buzzer running game. Rather they are going to oscillate between shortening the court with transition a third, or a half the time, and lengthening it the rest of the time.

    In 70-point-take-what-they-give-you, with the long and athletics Self's teams tend to have, the opposing teams are just not going to give KU many chances to run. And Self's teams do not dictate tempo. Rather they goose it up and down based on what the opponent is giving and on what the MUAs permit. Self teams take what is given.

    When Self talks about playing up-tempo, he just means getting it up the floor quickly with long passes, or with a point guard pushing it, to probe for a transition basket, before "running the stuff" to make them "slide awhile" before someone gets the ball where he can "make a play."

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    William Blake 11 months ago

    Okay... I'm biting on this one.

    Andrew Wiggins will score OVER 18 ppg next year.

    Here is why:

    1. No one has seen the real Andrew Wiggins play ball yet. Everything he's done in the past will seem like small potatoes to how he will perform next year, especially in AFH. He's a young man who will raise his game from finding even higher inspiration. Forget the idea of Andrew having to adjust to D1... instead, consider if D1 will be able to adjust to Andrew.

    2. Andrew has more than a green light. His green light is flourescent and glows in the dark. BMac showed us that CS wants certain players to shoot more... sometimes regardless how bad a shot it turned out to be. Andrew is more capable of creating his own shot than BMac. Even fans didn't complain when BMac forced up a brick. Fans still wanted him to shoot even more. Andrew's green light is more like a nuclear-glow green. If he only gets up 30 shots a game people will be dissatisfied. His coordination, speed, form... fans want to see it put into action, and that means having the ball artfully fling off his fingers to the bottom of the nets!

    3. Pace? Let's refine that to 'pace to Andrew'... better yet... 'pass to Andrew'. Andrew will touch the ball perhaps even more than Naadir. Naadir will push the ball up quicker than any KU PG in years. Naadir is undersized so Naadir will mostly feed our 2 and 3. That means Andrew. Now Andrew has the ball. If he feeds the post, what percentage of the time will the ball come back into his hands? Andrew's artful shooting form will pressure his teammates to take quality shots, too. And if they don't create a good enough shot for themselves, they'll pass the ball back to Andrew.

    4. Opposing teams will figure this out; let Andrew have his 20+ per game and limit other players' scoring. Highly-effective offensive players usually score near their average regardless how many defenders help out against them. KU will have plenty of players who can score and have big nights. Teams focusing too hard on Andrew will get murdered because of....

    5. Andrew can pass the ball well, even in a crowd. Opposing teams will get burned if they focus too hard on stopping Andrew. This loops back to #4 above.

    6. Alpha dog? Well, alpha dog meet alpha world! If Andrew puts up 50 pts in a game fans will be thrilled, and pushing for him to score 60 pts in the next game. KU fans have high basketball IQ. They know in a normal world it's best to spread the scoring out. But when one player is exponentially more gifted on offense, KU fans want that player to score whatever amount is still efficient for the team, and helping us win games. The 'even scoring' principle quickly gets tossed out the window. Give the ball to the guy who is most-likely going to score.

    How can this guy not score at least 20 ppg?

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    Michael Luby 11 months ago

    Fun stuff Jesse, thanks. My gut feeling is that Wiggins tops 18/game.
    either way it will be a very exciting season, cant get here soon enough!

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    Randy Bombardier 11 months ago

    I see him putting up 20 or more points if he is aggressive as some of his highlights have shown. I would like to see him strive to drive, so to speak, as it opens up so many good looks. Being too unselfish, not aggressive enough, trying to hard to rotate the ball can backfire.

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    Pitthawk34 11 months ago

    Can't we just let the kid play ball and not have to put expectations on him either over or under on points! POOR BLOG. Just my OP.

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    Dirk Medema 11 months ago

    The greatest counter-point to him getting 18 is the fact that he is suppposed to be a very unselfish player that creates for others as much as for himself. In some ways, I can see a line-up with Conner or Greene as the third perimeter player - allowing Andrew and Wayne create and draw attention with kick-outs for auto-3's or dumps to a post that is left alone.

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    ottomark 11 months ago

    This is called trolling, Jesse...so kudos to you for doing it. Andrew will score 18 because he'll have to next year -- in ways few Hawks have had to score 18 at KU before.

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    John Gill 11 months ago

    IMHO Ellis is they 2nd coming of Wayne Simien, and look where that places him in the season ave scoring chart. After Ellis score the first 3 buckets of the game with a variety of basically un-defendable post moves, opposing 2 guard will start having to hedge off his man to double down on Ellis, which with any the potential options at that position,leave them deadly open for a 3-pt J or first explosive step to the hole. Self's traditional hi-lo might even morph to a triangle set with the shooting and driving ability we'll have at the 2 & 3 spots.

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    GrammarPolice 11 months ago

    At first I thought... yeah, he'll definitely break McLemore's long-held scoring record. But the more I think about it., the fact that the whole rest of the team is an unknown makes it impossible to have anything more than a wild guess.

    A team w all 5 starters gone that has no other weapons is not an unknown. It's KNOWN that he will be leaned on heavily... That ain't Kansas.

    Wiggins has more "competition" for scoring and shot attempts this year than he would have last year, in my opinion.

    1. Ellis... looked like college bball was way too big for him for much of the year... then figured it out. The biggest jump a player makes is from FR to SO year.. and Ellis is going to make it. He's going to continue to be aggressive.

    2. Selden... if we didn't land Wiggins, what is the opinion on Selden? May be our leading scorer. Or close to it? He isn't going to go on the back burner because of Wiggins being here. Self is going to want EVERYONE on the floor to be aggressive. And that is Selden's game, too.

    3. Frankamp. I don't have a single clue why some are dozing on him. Self called him a "stud" before he ever showed up on campus. Usually, he reserves that for guys that have already been playing here. People expected Parker and Okafor and then probably ANYONE ELSE to dominate the scoring on Team USA. Guess who they trailed? The little white guy from Kansas.

    4. Embiid. how much of a wild-card can one guy be? Really?! I mean it's Ceiling, ceiling, ceiling w him. Some people will wanna say Sasha Kaun 2.0... but I don't buy that. SK didn't have a meteoric rise in the rankings and win MVP's at all star events (if my memory is correct). I don't think even BS fully knows what to expect of embiid as far as immediate impact goes.

    5. Black, Lucas & Traylor. Okay, we are getting into 5 frontcourt players. Never has Self had that. W no foreseeable RS possibility... maybe Traylor? But I they talk about Black like he is rare in that he still have "untapped potential". Self talked last year about the great strides Lucas is making, and he already didn't look too bad in the preseason. And is Traylor still not one of the most freakishly athletic power forwards we've ever seen?

    I think for KU's and our sakes... it's better if Wiggins only has to average 15-16 a game because we have scoring coming from so many directions.

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    Adam Bengtson 11 months ago

    Why is this an article? Were obsessed with numbers to much. I want one other statistic it better involve 35 wins, BIg 12 title, and National Title.

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    Suzi Marshall 11 months ago

    I can not tell you how many points AW will average next year. A better bet might be how many shots will he take? Knowing Self, he will want AW to take his shots in the offensive flow of the game, pushing the ball into the paint. I'd take the bet he will average 16 shots per game and 7 FT per game. IF he's 50% on FG and 85% from the line....he's over 18. Hopefully, he'll have alot of dunks off steals, back door plays, and drives.

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    Colby Hebert 11 months ago

    Jesse, keep it coming, this is a great thought provoking and informative article! Feed us more!! Over/under on Selden, Embiid, Ellis, and Tharpe? Bring it!

    I agree with Jesse as well, I think he will be around 17 points per game. Self's offense is just usually so balanced. I know we have no returning starters but Ellis is about to break out in my opinion. We may even see Ellis as our leading scorer. His face up game inside is unique and intriguing and I just think it took awhile for him to fit it into the collegiate level. Tharpe will chuck it up. Selden is very talented and will get his. We will still feed the post as well.

    Ben could get hot from 3 which really spiked his average higher than it otherwise might have been. Is Wiggins as pure of an outside shooter? It is hard to believe he is, even as talented as he is. It depends on if Wiggins has the ball-handling to drive and slash and draw fouls. If he can get to the line a lot, 20 ppg then could be in the realm of possibilities.

    To showcase Wiggins though, I do not think he has to score at a historic average. If we make a deep run in the tournament, a FF or a championship, that would make him just as wanted as a prospect. GM's know how KU is and what kind of coach Self is.

    We got a load of people drafted off that 2008 championship with no real "go to" guy. It was very balanced. If you are on a bad team you want your individual stats to be impressive. If you are contending for a championship on a balanced team even guys averaging 10ppg will get a look by the league. Sasha and Jackson got drafted without putting up big numbers or being hyped, they benefited from a deep run in the NCAA tournament.

    Win games and everything else will take care of itself. If our freshman adjust well to college, and Ellis has a break out year and we win it all, we could lose Ellis, Embiid, Selden and Wiggins to the draft. I would take that though, we would have another banner to show for it and we still have got talented and intriguing kids in the pipeline.

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    JayDocMD 11 months ago

    Perhaps now's a good time to reevaluate the Anrio Adams departure. If my math is correct, without AA leaving we would not have had the scholarships to sign both Black and Wiggins. Now maybe the Mickelson transfer wouldn't have been offered if AA had stayed, but it's interesting to consider.

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    Bill Skeet 11 months ago

    Putting up numbers similar to Durant would make Wiggins an instant legend. But then, so would another national championship, regardless of the numbers..

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    texashawk10 11 months ago

    A good year for KU offensively will likely look like Wiggins having similar numbers to McLemore with slightly better rebounding numbers, 17 and 7 would be good numbers for Wiggins. I'm thinking 14 and 8 for Ellis would be good numbers for him. The third leading scorer for KU, whether it ends up being Selden or Tharpe should be in the 11-12 ppg range with the other being at 9-10 a game. 5+ assists per game for Tharpe along with a better than 2.5:1 assist to turnover ratio would be good for him. 15 and 10 combined from the rest of the front court combined would be good numbers. 10 ppg from the back court subs would be good for KU as well. That adds up to 75+ a game which with the athleticism of this team and the shooting capabilities players on this team are bringing in make 75+ppg an attainable number. The biggest question for KU next season will be on defense. This will be a very long team with the exception of Tharpe which should help cover deficiencies this team will have because of its youth. If this team can turn into the kind of defensive team we have become accustomed to seeing from Bill Self, this is a team that can win a national title, but if they don't become the great defensive team we're used to seeing under Bill Self, then we can forget about seeing this team win a national title.

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    eric poncharello 11 months ago

    Kevin Durant averaged 25.8 points per game and 11.1 rebounds per game during his freshman season with the Texas Longhorns. In Big 12 games he averaged 28.9 points and 12.5 rebounds per game. I wonder if Wiggin's can do the same?

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    Eliott Reeder 11 months ago

    When I get bored out of my mind at work and have already combed through the few worthwhile message board topics of the day several times and then click back to KUSports front page in desperation for something, ANYTHING new to read about the Hawks... and find a Newell Post or Seen it!?! Well, highlight of my day... thanks for all the extra work you guys put in to keep us junkies entertained!

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    jhawkinsf 11 months ago

    Question: Who is the only person who could hold Michael Jordan to under 25 points per game?

    Answer: Dean Smith.

    Who's going to keep Wiggins to under a certain number of points? Self.

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    wrwlumpy 11 months ago

    Like Parcell used to say, "When you know this offense well, you'll pray that they blitz you." Same way I feel about any team that wants to double Andrew. He will find the open man, usually for a dunk. Every team in the country will have trouble keeping our 3 guards out of the paint. Dunks, Free Throws and 3's.

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    Jack Wilson 11 months ago

    Yes, great read Jesse. Terrific stuff in mid-May.

    The key is pace and approach.

    First, approach: Will coach Self depart from his feed the post mantra? I just can't see Self becoming more perimeter oriented. It's his game. It's how he plays. But also, will he let non-post players post up their defenders? Will he let Wiggins do that? Even when Releford had a 6'2" guy guarding him, it didn't happen.

    Second, pace: Will he really play fast? On playing fast, the main way we'll know if Self is really playing faster is if there is not a designated player throwing the ball in .. the closest player throws it in. That means we're pushing it on made buckets. Don't bet on it.

    The key to Wiggins scoring 18+ is solely on coach Self's shoulders.

    That all being said, I'm not convinced that Wiggins scoring 18+ per game is clearly a good thing. Don't want the "stand around and watch the star" syndrome to set in. If it is done without guys always looking to him to score, fine. I'll take 22 per game. But if it is constantly deferring to Wiggins, that's a recipe for a quick tourney exit.

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    clevelandjayhawker 11 months ago

    Didn’t know I could get even more excited for Late Night to get here....but it just happen. Thanks Jesse

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    Tony Bandle 11 months ago

    Great job, as always, Jesse. allow me to throw in my two Abes.

    1] I think the schedule will actually help his scoring, because there will be many more close games where he'll play virtually the whole game as opposed to some walkovers that see the coaches sons by the middle of the second half.

    2] He will score over 18 points a game because he CAN!! Outside shot, slashing to the basket, fast break opps..he can do it all whereby BenMac kind of contained his game to the outside and stil averaged almost 16.

    3] As mentioned earlier, no one to defer to..Perry?, Jamari? Naadir?...don't think so and even the most experienced guy on the team, Tarik, is also a first year Jayhawk.

    4] HCBS planning for the future. This season may be one of the most important seasons in the next ten years, because if Andrew does become the OAD Jewel of the KAW, every present and future OAD will know about it and that will add a BIG PLUS for KU.

    5] And finally, Kansas will present nightmare match-ups all over the court [Perry Jo Jo, Wayne] so no team will truly be able to double up on Andrew. In fact, I predict just the opposite, in that teams will start letting Andrew get his points and focus on stopping everyone else.

    It should be really, really fun this next season!!!

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    CrimsonPhoenix 11 months ago

    Kevin Durant averaged 25.8 points per game his freshman year, he's just a hack... don't see why Wiggins can't put up over 18 per game. :)

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    Andrew Horigan 11 months ago

    I think his ppg depends on what Selden does. Before we landed Wiggins we all would have been expecting good number from Selden. Not 18ppg but definitely around 12-14ppg. If both players get hot and feed off each other we could be looking at something similar to 2008, where we have two players averaging around 14-16ppg. Then add Naadir putting up around ten (he'll have to chill out on shooting so many 3's), add Ellis around 12 or so and I'm expecting our bench to be incredible, look at all the talent. This team has the ability to put up serious numbers. Especially if Wiggins is going off on a 30 point burst. Man I am excited! We have SO MANY weapons. I'm not expecting the freshman to just come in making tons of shots, but come conference time...

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    Kurt Eskilson 11 months ago

    Great post! I really enjoyed the detailed research.

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    SuperCorona 11 months ago

    I'm guessing he'll get 8-10 a game from the FT line. That means he'll only need 4-5 FGs to hit 18. That doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility at all.

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    63Jayhawk 11 months ago

    After attending 3 schools in 4 years, what are the odds that Wiggins ends up in the same position as Mclemore and Traylor.......not eligible to play next year?

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    Ben Kane 11 months ago

    If this was a vegas bet and i had some odds, i would pick him to average over 20. first of all he can. secondly, Self understands that he must showcase a man who has been called the best since lebron or he will ruin his ability to compete on oads.

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    FarSideHawk 11 months ago

    I concur Jesse. I think he will be around that number. One thing that sticks out most about Wiggins versus other star freshmen that we've had (McLemore, Selby, Xavier), is that all three of them joined a very experienced team with clear team leaders and stars (Xavier with Sherron/Cole; Selby with Morri; McLemore with the 4 seniors). Considering the fact that these kids were, for the most part, team-first and humble players, they deferred a lot to the upper-classmen.

    Wiggins should be able to play with much more freedom which should help his numbers.

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    702Hawk 11 months ago

    For as much attention as Wiggins has gotten he seems like we will be double teamed most of the time. I think he has a better chance of getting two Triple Doubles than averaging above 18 ppg.

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    fearthephog512 11 months ago

    Nice insight, Jesse. 17.2 PPG sounds about right to me. Sort of also depends on how Self modifies the playbook for Wiggins, considering HCBS previously said he'll plug in Wiggins similar to McLemore. I'm thinking this will definitely be more of a fast break team than in years past, which will be great for our 3-point shooters, too. Can't wait for next season! Rock Chalk.

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