Purdue’s strengths, weaknesses and players to watch

By Staff     Mar 17, 2012

*All statistics courtesy of KenPom.com and are current as of March 17.*

**Team:** Purdue
**Record:** 22-12
**Seed:** 10
**KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking:** 23

**Strengths**

Purdue has been outstanding offensively this year, ranking sixth nationally in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency.

The Boilermakers’ greatest strength is getting shots up. Purdue is No. 1 in the nation in offensive turnover percentage, giving it away on just 13.5 percent of its possessions. Opponents also find it hard to get steals, coming away with swipes on just 5.9 percent of Purdue’s possessions.

Purdue is a dangerous three-point shooting team, making 37.6 percent of its shots from deep (45th nationally). The scarier part for KU might be the number of three-point attempts the Boilermakers take, as 37.3 percent of Purdue’s shots are threes (45th nationally).

**Weaknesses**

Defensively, Purdue hasn’t been great. The Boilermakers rank 87th in adjusted defensive efficiency and thrive in few areas after playing the nation’s 14th-toughest schedule.

More than anything, the Boilermakers haven’t been able to limit good shots. Opponents make 49.4 percent of their twos (231rd nationally) and 34.8 percent of their threes (189th nationally) against Purdue, while the team also doesn’t force a lot of turnovers (19.7 percent, 200th nationally).

Purdue does not grab many offensive rebounds, pulling down 31.2 percent of the available caroms (211th nationally). Free throws also are a weakness, as Purdue has made just 65.7 percent of its attempts from the line (281st nationally).

**Players to Watch**

Even after two torn ACLs, 6-foot-8 senior forward Robbie Hummel remains as Purdue’s best player offensively.

The All-Big Ten first-teamer shoots 28.9 percent of his team’s shots on the floor (126th nationally) while remaining an efficient player. He’s only made 44 percent of his twos this year (117 of 268) but has to be respected as a three-point shooter, making 37 percent there (65 of 175).

Hummel’s greatest strength, though, is his ability to not turn the ball over. He is No. 1 nationally in turnover percentage, as just 6.7 percent of his used possessions result in giveaways. Here’s another way to look at it: Hummel has more than one turnover in just seven of Purdue’s 34 games, and that’s while averaging more than 32 minutes per game.

Hummel is also Purdue’s best defensive rebounder, grabbing 21.6 percent of the available boards on that end (113th nationally).

Lewis Jackson, a 5-9 point guard, gives Purdue its best threat off the dribble. He’s made 50 percent of his twos (114 of 227) while also drawing 4.7 fouls per game. He’s not a danger from three, though, where he’s attempted just 26 all season (six of 26, 23 percent).

Purdue has two other deadly three-point shooters KU will need to track. Senior Ryne Smith pretty much only shoots threes (he has only 34 two-point attempts all season), but he’s made 43.8 percent of his long range shots while taking a whopping 201 of them (88 of 201). His statistical profile almost exactly matches that of Baylor’s Brady Heslip, if you’re looking for a comparable player.

Meanwhile, Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year D.J. Byrd has made 43 percent of his threes this year (61 of 142) while posting one of the nation’s best turnover percentages (8 percent, eighth nationally). He also shoots a lot, putting up 24.9 percent of the Boilermakers’ field-goal attempts when he’s in.

**Bottom Line**

Don’t let Purdue’s 12 losses fool you; the Boilermakers played a tough schedule this year and have seven losses to KenPom top-10 teams.

Purdue is a gifted offensive team that is dangerous because it has few turnovers and is nearly guaranteed to get a lot of shots up.

As mentioned above, the scariest part for KU is the high percentage of threes that Purdue shoots. In a one-game setting, this can make for a wide range of outcomes.

Think of it like this: With every three-pointer Purdue takes against KU, it’s buying a lottery ticket. Hey, there’s the chance that you get 14 straight lottery tickets that lose. If that happens — and Purdue misses almost all its threes — KU has a chance to bury the Boilermakers and win by 20 or more.

But that’s the thing about the lottery tickets … though over time, you will always lose, on a given day, you might win.

As an underdog, the Boilermakers have the tendencies (average-to-slow tempo, high-risk, high-reward offense) that you want when facing a favorite in March.

With a lack of size, Purdue also has played small for much of the year, which included Friday’s 72-69 victory over St. Mary’s.

We’ve seen KU struggle when it’s had to go small against Missouri, and Purdue could present many of the same challenges Sunday.

In short, Purdue is a scary matchup because it is good offensively and has the potential to make up points with a string of good luck.

KenPom predicts a seven-point KU victory, giving the Jayhawks a 73-percent chance of winning.

The Jayhawks will increase their chances of winning if they limit their help on drives and stick to Purdue’s shooters on the perimeter to try to prevent the Boilermakers’ lottery tickets.

Meanwhile, KU needs to perform better offensively against a weak defensive team; the Jayhawks posted just 0.96 points per possession against Detroit on Friday.

KU will have to be better Sunday to outscore Purdue … though the return of guard Tyshawn Taylor to full-time duty should definitely help.

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