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How well did KU defend three-pointers against Ohio State?

The most fascinating thing to me about this year's Kansas basketball team is its defensive profile.

With center Jeff Withey swatting shots inside, teams have gone exclusively to shooting three-pointers against KU. So far, this hasn't burned the Jayhawks.

According to KenPom.com, 39 percent of the field goals against KU this year have been three-pointers. Only 25 teams in Div. I (out of 347 total) have had a higher percentage of threes taken against them.

That's not a bad thing when teams don't shoot well from the outside, as the Jayhawks' last four opponents have made 15 percent, 21 percent, 28 percent and 26 percent of their three-point tries.

Of course, there's reason to believe this trend won't continue. Ken Pomeroy, for one, believes teams don't have much control of opponents' three-point percentages, saying teams should try their hardest to prevent threes rather than make opponents miss them.

It's still probably a bit extreme to say defenses have no control on three-point shots by opponents, as it would reason that closely guarded shots are made less often than wide-open ones.

With this in mind, I wanted to take a closer look at the last opponent that shot poorly from three against KU: Ohio State, which made eight of 31 threes (26 percent) for its second-worst three-point shooting game of the year.

Below, I posted a screenshot of each OSU three-point attempt with the shooter as close to the top of his release as I could get.

It's not scientific, but I'll break down the shots into four categories: "Closely guarded," "Somewhat guarded," "Barely guarded" and "Unguarded." I'll also include the shooters' three-point percentages coming into the game, which might help indicate if KU's scouting report said to let a certain player shoot from the outside.

It also might be fun to try to predict if a certain shot went in before scrolling down to see the result.

With that, let's take a look at the threes. We'll tally everything up at the end as well.

No. 1

No. 1 by Jesse Newell

Shooter: Sam Thompson
Three-point percentage: 27% (4 of 15)
Category: Somewhat guarded. Kevin Young closes out well to get a high hand, but he's still in recovery mode.
Result: Made three

No. 2

No. 2 by Jesse Newell

Shooter: Lenzelle Smith, Jr.
Three-point percentage: 49% (19 of 39)
Category: Somewhat guarded. Ben McLemore closes with a high hand, but there's still plenty of room for Smith to get the shot off.
Result: Missed three

No. 3

No. 3 by Jesse Newell

Shooter: Deshaun Thomas
Three-point percentage: 41% (27 of 66)
Category: Closely guarded. Kevin Young is right with Thomas as he attempts this shot.
Result: Missed three

No. 4

No. 4 by Jesse Newell

Shooter: Sam Thompson
Three-point percentage: 27% (4 of 15)
Category: Barely guarded. Young does at least try to contest the shot from a few feet away.
Result: Made three

No. 5.

No. 5. by Jesse Newell

Shooter: Deshaun Thomas
Three-point percentage: 41% (27 of 66)
Category: Closely guarded. McLemore is in Thomas' shorts here. That doesn't stop him from making the shot.
Result: Made three

No. 6.

No. 6. by Jesse Newell

Shooter: LaQuinton Ross
Three-point percentage: 31% (8 of 26)
Category: Barely guarded. The shot is contested, but Perry Ellis is a couple steps away. I will note that this three is a step or so behind the three-point line.
Result: Missed three

No. 7.

No. 7. by Jesse Newell

Shooter: Aaron Craft
Three-point percentage: 33% (10 of 30)
Category: Barely guarded. Elijah Johnson extends a high hand towards Craft, but he's not close to him.
Result: Made three

Shooter: Deshaun Thomas
Three-point percentage: 41% (27 of 66)
Category: Somewhat guarded. Travis Releford is there, but he doesn't elevate to challenge the shot.
Result: Made three

No. 9.

No. 9. by Jesse Newell

Shooter: Shannon Scott
Three-point percentage: 46% (5 of 11)
Category: Barely guarded. Almost a carbon copy of Craft's shot above. Johnson is late getting out and doesn't elevate on the shot.
Result: Made three

No. 10.

No. 10. by Jesse Newell

Shooter: Aaron Craft
Three-point percentage: 33% (10 of 30)
Category: Somewhat guarded. Naadir Tharpe is within a couple of feet of Craft but doesn't jump on the shot.
Result: Missed three

No. 11.

No. 11. by Jesse Newell

Shooter: Sam Thompson
Three-point percentage: 27% (4 of 15)
Category: Unguarded. Releford and Young don't communicate on a screen, and the result is Thompson getting an unblocked view of the rim.
Result: Missed three

No. 12.

No. 12. by Jesse Newell

Shooter: Lenzelle Smith, Jr.
Three-point percentage: 49% (19 of 39)
Category: Closely guarded. Young is close to Smith and elevates to get a high hand up on the shot.
Result: Missed three

No. 13.

No. 13. by Jesse Newell

Shooter: Shannon Scott
Three-point percentage: 46% (5 of 11)
Category: Unguarded. This is where I draw the line. Yeah, Jeff Withey is coming, but he's so far away on the shot that Scott shouldn't be affected.
Result: Missed three

No. 14

No. 14 by Jesse Newell

Shooter: Lenzelle Smith, Jr.
Three-point percentage: 49% (19 of 39)
Category: Barely guarded. Elijah Johnson is close to Smith, but he fails to get a hand up.
Result: Missed three

No. 15.

No. 15. by Jesse Newell

Shooter: Sam Thompson
Three-point percentage: 27% (4 of 15)
Category: Closely guarded. Kevin Young once again is close to the shooter, jumping with his hand up.
Result: Missed three

No. 16.

No. 16. by Jesse Newell

Shooter: Lenzelle Smith, Jr.
Three-point percentage: 49% (19 of 39)
Category: Barely guarded. Elijah Johnson once again has neither hand up on the release.
Result: Missed three

No. 17.

No. 17. by Jesse Newell

Shooter: Deshaun Thomas
Three-point percentage: 41% (27 of 66)
Category: Somewhat guarded. Travis Releford is there, but he doesn't jump on the challenge.
Result: Made three

No. 18.

No. 18. by Jesse Newell

Shooter: Lenzelle Smith, Jr.
Three-point percentage: 49% (19 of 39)
Category: Closely guarded. We've seen a lot of this from Young: high hand, elevating on the shot.
Result: Missed three

No. 19.

No. 19. by Jesse Newell

Shooter: Sam Thompson
Three-point percentage: 27% (4 of 15)
Category: Barely guarded. McLemore has good leaping ability, but he's unlikely to change a shot from that far away.
Result: Missed three

No. 20.

No. 20. by Jesse Newell

Shooter: Deshaun Thomas
Three-point percentage: 41% (27 of 66)
Category: Closely guarded. Thomas takes an ill-advised shot here, as Releford is right on him.
Result: Missed three

No. 21.

No. 21. by Jesse Newell

Shooter: Aaron Craft
Three-point percentage: 33% (10 of 30)
Category: Unguarded. Releford is not challenging this shot at all.
Result: Missed three

No. 22.

No. 22. by Jesse Newell

Shooter: Shannon Scott
Three-point percentage: 46% (5 of 11)
Category: Unguarded. This is about as unguarded as you can get. Scott misses it.
Result: Missed three

No. 23.

No. 23. by Jesse Newell

Shooter: Aaron Craft
Three-point percentage: 33% (10 of 30)
Category: Unguarded. Johnson is chasing and doesn't challenge this three from Craft.
Result: Missed three

No. 24.

No. 24. by Jesse Newell

Shooter: Lenzelle Smith, Jr.
Three-point percentage: 49% (19 of 39)
Category: Somewhat guarded. McLemore is there but doesn't jump to contest.
Result: Missed three

No. 25.

No. 25. by Jesse Newell

Shooter: LaQuinton Ross
Three-point percentage: 31% (8 of 26)
Category: Barely guarded. Young closes out high, but he's not close enough to make much of an impact.
Result: Missed three

No. 26.

No. 26. by Jesse Newell

Shooter: Aaron Craft
Three-point percentage: 33% (10 of 30)
Category: Unguarded. Looks like Releford is content to let Craft have that shot. It's hard to know if that was part of the gameplan (Craft went 2-for-6 from three against KU).
Result: Missed three

No. 27.

No. 27. by Jesse Newell

Shooter: Deshaun Thomas
Three-point percentage: 41% (27 of 66)
Category: Closely guarded. Releford is right with Thomas with a hand extended.
Result: Missed three

No. 28.

No. 28. by Jesse Newell

Shooter: Lenzelle Smith, Jr.
Three-point percentage: 49% (19 of 39)
Category: Unguarded. Maybe fatigue played a role at this point, but I don't think you'd normally expect a shooter like Smith to miss this one.
Result: Missed three

No. 29.

No. 29. by Jesse Newell

Shooter: Aaron Craft
Three-point percentage: 33% (10 of 30)
Category: Unguarded. You might argue for a "Barely guarded" here, but Young doesn't even commit to the shot by Craft while staying down defensively. Craft makes it.
Result: Made three

No. 30.

No. 30. by Jesse Newell

Shooter: Deshaun Thomas
Three-point percentage: 41% (27 of 66)
Category: Unguarded. This is one I'd expect a shooter like Thomas to make. Instead, he airballs it.
Result: Missed three

No. 31.

No. 31. by Jesse Newell

Shooter: LaQuinton Ross
Three-point percentage: 31% (8 of 26)
Category: Closely guarded. Desperation shot at the end, and Ross is hounded by Young.
Result: Missed three

A few things that stood out to me with this study before we get to the final tally.

We might not be giving Kevin Young enough credit for his perimeter defense. He had five of KU's "closely guarded" plays in the study above and appears to be the best Jayhawk at getting out to perimeter shooters with elevation and a hand up.

Elijah Johnson still looks like he could improve with his perimeter defense. He was defending on four of the seven "barely guarded" plays above and oftentimes was caught with his hands down while opponents were going up for a three.

KU's three-point defense wasn't as good late, as seven of OSU's unguarded threes came on the Buckeyes' final 11 three-point attempts.

All right, let's get to it. Based on my unscientific defensive grading, here are the final results:

OSU three-pointers vs. KU.

OSU three-pointers vs. KU. by Jesse Newell

This is only a one-game sample, but we can start to see where three-point shooting might be more random than we give it credit for.

KU's close guarding did appear to affect OSU, as the Buckeyes made just one of eight threes when tightly covered.

The rest doesn't make much sense. OSU shot even worse on unguarded jumpers (1-for-9) than it did in any other category. And though it's a small sample, the Buckeyes shot a little better when they were somewhat guarded (50 percent) than when they were barely guarded (38 percent).

If nothing else, this proves KU might have been a bit fortunate with its three-point defense against OSU. The Buckeyes, which came in shooting 39 percent on all threes, ended up making just 11 percent on those shots from the perimeter where they were completely unguarded.

KU coach Bill Self was asked Friday afternoon if he was OK with opponents shooting as many threes as they wanted to against the Jayhawks.

"I'm OK with teams shooting guarded threes," Self said. "I think in large part, our three-point percentage defense was one of the worst in the country the first seven or eight games of the season. It was awful. But the last few games it's gotten better, I think in large part because teams miss, not because we've bothered them as much. And when you're rushed, you don't shoot as good of a percentage.

"But I think the number is too high. I wish we pressured out a little bit more to try to reduce that number and force them into Jeff, which I think would probably be something that could key some fast breaks from time to time."

The study above is limited, but I think it somewhat confirms what Pomeroy claims regarding three-point attempts.

As long as KU continues to surrender a high number of three-point attempts, it will continue to be a bit at the mercy of luck, letting opponent three-point shooting — something that is not completely in the Jayhawks' control — dictate whether many defensive possessions are successful or not.

;

Comments

Boouk 1 year, 9 months ago

If we surrender a bunch of open looks like we did against OSU to a good 3 point shooting team in the NCAA tournament we could be in big trouble.

1

Jesse Johnson 1 year, 9 months ago

Agree. I also think there is more to be said about preventing three attempts. I think there is a lot that a team playing defense can do to prevent attempts. One painful game that comes to mind is VCU in 2011. They won that game by raining three pointers, even closely guarded three pointers. On the other side of the court they were really bothering us by getting out on us way behind line so we couldn't even get a shot off. The problem was we wouldn't get out on them unless they were all the way up to the line. I think if you really bother them on defense by getting out on them well past the 3 pt. line you can make it hard for them to make passes or even get a shot off.

1

Boouk 1 year, 9 months ago

We should focus on limiting opposing guards 3 point attempts and force them to shoot long 2s or have to get their shot off over Withey on the inside.

0

AsadZ 1 year, 9 months ago

Jesse

I believe that OSU missed some open 3s in 2nd half that could be attributed to tired legs.

I recall that OSU players were out of gas whereas KU players seemed fine despite physical nature and fast pace. This could be attributed to better overall conditioning, Hudy factor, and deeper bench.

1

Jesse Newell 1 year, 9 months ago

I definitely agree with this. OSU seemed to run out of gas late.

Looking at the three-pointers above, though, KU might have lost a little defensive juice as well.

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riverdrifter 1 year, 9 months ago

The stats here don't reflect it but it would seem that the first task at hand would be to reduce the number of unguarded threes. Excellent column, Jesse. º°°º¤ø,¸¸,ø¤º°°º¤ø,¸¸ A+++++ all the way!

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Tony Bandle 1 year, 9 months ago

Maybe Jesse is suggesting that if we let our opponent get off an unguarded three, even when they miss, they should at least be awarded a point and a half as punishment to Kansas for the lax defense.

I sugggest we go to the Umbrella and One Zone. Four players play the perimeter, force the opponent out of threes and make them drive into the" Almost as Big Dipper" for a block or altered shot!!!

Actually, the stats prove that "Less Is More" whereby we should give the opponent more open looks in order to psych him out!!

[Posted with no malice and tongue planted firmly in cheek]

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jermio 1 year, 9 months ago

Jesse, awesome stuff. After watching the game, I thought to myself 'man, they sure did miss a lot of open 3's'. After thinking about it a little bit, I think part of that has to do with the opposing team being frustrated offensively. When teams get out of rhythm, they tend to struggle to put the ball in the basket. I know we have seen this happen to us in the NCAA tourney a couple of times. The fact that they aren't able to get many easy points is frustrating and mentally tiring. Then, when they finally get open, they feel a ton of pressure to make the shot.

I may be grasping at straws here, but I do think that Jeff has a lot more to do with missed shots than we may give him credit for. He is frustrating the other team. Now, this won't always be the case. As soon as some team sees the ball go in the hoop and gets hot, it could obviously hurt us pretty bad. I just think there is more to it here than whether the shot was guarded or not. Obviously our perimeter D needs to step up, though.

1

KGphoto 1 year, 9 months ago

Almost verbatim what I was going to comment. That and the tired legs thing that was also posted above.

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RockChalk0808 1 year, 9 months ago

One game is far too small a sample to even begin to identify a trend. That said, it makes sense that completely unguarded 3 point shots could have a lower make percentage than you might think. It's sort of like shooting technical fouls. Mentally, you expect to be at least "somewhat guarded" and that's what you prepare for in practice. With no defense, there could be just a bit of added anxiety because the player feels added pressure.

"Oh crap, no defense! I better make this one..."

clank

2

oldalum 1 year, 9 months ago

I agree. Also, when the defense is generally good, when a player finds himself open it's possible he hurries the shot in order to get it away before the defense gets to him.

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salden 1 year, 9 months ago

There is a reason for the percentages in the barely guarded and unguarded categories. The scouting report. Craft can't shoot. The others that left open were done so, thought not every time, because the team was purposely letting then have done freedom out there, knowing they'd likely miss. Again, not every time, but a chunk of them. That's good prep.

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illuminatironin 1 year, 9 months ago

Hi Jesse, I was glad to see the mention about the arms being down. I have seen a disturbing trend in our three point defense where our guys don't even put their arms up when going at a shooter. I understand they don't want to get caught in the air and have the guy drive past them. But, it is happening when the guys are in the act of shooting.

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Scott Smetana 1 year, 9 months ago

Fantastic Analysis, more subjects needed. I'm wondering if players shoot better partially guarded vs. wide open. Wide open probably gives them more nerves and more misses. Heavily guarded, you'd think, would be the best.
However, heavily guarded always runs the chances of a 3 point foul or an easier drive to the bucket.
Wish someone could tally the % with thousands of shots.

0

riverdrifter 1 year, 9 months ago

Wish someone could tally the % with thousands of shots.

Or at least hundreds from this year. I'd wager Self & staff are working on this.

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Beate Williams 1 year, 9 months ago

Jesse, I think you have done an excellent job with this analysis. A few things I would like you to consider. The majority of the 3's were taken in the 2nd half (18 vs 13); were most of the unguarded and barely guarded shots taken early or late in the half and if so what would you consider to be the possibility that it was part of the game plan after Self saw that OSU players were breathing hard and quite tired. Not sure if Self would admit to that but I think that is a possibility.

I think during the 1st half those unguarded shots and barely guarded, at least the majority, would probably have been on Shannon and Craft, two players who are not great three point shooters, whereas more effort would have been placed on insuring that Thomas and Smith were more closely guarded in the 1st half but after demonstrating they were somewhat exhausted in the 2nd half Self would not put as much effort into guarding them as much as blocking them out so that they could not get to the rebound.

The belielf that has been expressed above regarding the rushing of shots, the frustration as a result of missing and being behind, I believe are all relevant then compound that with the tiredness of the players and you have shots that don't quite make it to the rim.

I love your analysis, excellent job.

0

whitey45 1 year, 9 months ago

Interesting stuff as always Jesse.

0

Jack Wilson 1 year, 9 months ago

Just out .. Joel Embiid ranked #37 by Rivals in the new rankings. We now have 4 in the top 40.

Greene #25

Selden #26

Frankamp #31

Embiid #37

Mason #134

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/recruiting/rankings/rank-2752

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Boouk 1 year, 9 months ago

By the end of his college career he'll be considered a top 10 player in class. Self said he could be the best big he's ever had at KU.

0

Michael Luby 1 year, 9 months ago

Man, thats saying alot considering Wayne, Shady, Darnell, Sasha, Cole, Morri, T Rob. IMO Shady was the most athetic, talented and versatile of those 8 guys. Lets see how Embiid does next year!

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REHawk 1 year, 9 months ago

Nice. Very very nice. Thanks for the update.

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bradynsdad 1 year, 9 months ago

HEM check my post on the other page. Buy stock in frankcamp right now! I didn't believe he would even play his freshman year. Then I went to see him. He has an all around game. The kid is not just a scorer. He should work himself into the top 10. He did lead the USA team in scoring but his defense and his handles are outstanding.

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actorman 1 year, 9 months ago

It's great that you're such a fan, but you should at least learn how to spell his name: It's Frankamp, not Frankcamp.

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Geezer 1 year, 9 months ago

Emotion also plays an unquantifiable role in shooting jump shots. Game situation, shot clock, team momentum, all sorts of things play into it in ways that defy definition. Also each shooter is different from game to game. Thanks Jesse for the work on this piece but next time they may make 50% of them, God forbid.

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BCRavenJHawkfan 1 year, 9 months ago

Let me throw this in the mix:

I was struck by the number of threes taken early in the shot clock.

0

mikehawk 1 year, 9 months ago

The 3 ball is the great equalizer in college basketball. Any team can beat any team, regardless of rank, reputation, or seed, on any night they get hot from beyond the arc. With the 3 ball you "live by the sword and you die by the sword," which is the only chance many schools have against the big boys. KU needs to pick up their perimeter defense over what Jessie just demonstrated. If it is no better than than what we just looked at, you are basically playing Russian roulette. Do schools like ORU, VCU, Rhode Island bring back any memories for anyone? And there are others.

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Brian Powell 1 year, 9 months ago

most people shooting are most comfortable shooting with a defender nearby. That's what you prepare for. That's how most shots are shot. It feels weird to have a wide open shot -- you think about it too much. It's distracting. Then of course being closely guarded is 'distracting'. So I'd say the "unscientific" numbers do have some sense to them... you just gotta look past the numbers ;)

The other factor someone mentioned was just that they were OFF. I mean their best shooter shot airballs. AT HOME. No math or science can explain it, when a team is just feeling like crap because they're missing wide open shots, over and over and over again. It's contagious. It's emotion and psychology and a few other unquantifiable factors.

Also, one game? Well, not even close to statistically significant?

Life is grey, and sometimes I wish all the number worshippers would realize that for a minute -- but hey, we all make the world go 'round, right?

The bottom line is that preventing 3s will be a MUST for us to learn, because as soon as a team -- even an average shooting team-- is able to string together some of those shots, we will have our next entry in the LOSS column. Preventing the shots, or closely guarding them, it's semantics. We need to improve on the perimeter.

I do like how our TEAM defense has stopped the drive inside. While we 'give up' some trey shot attempts, it seems like we limit the drive/dish easier buckets a lot more (Except for in transition during OSU game, after turnovers). But in halfcourt D, we are a centralized defensive unit... stopping easier shots and gobbling up rebounds. I'll take it!

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J.T. Even 1 year, 9 months ago

Here's an interesting statistic: Just looking at the scoreboard on those screenshots, 11 out of 18 three point attempts came within the first eight seconds of the shot clock. I think it was about 7 or 8 came within the first five seconds. I don't know how many of those three point attempts came on a second possession, but I don't remember OSU getting a lot of looks inside. This would suggest that their shots were certainly hurried if not closely guarded. Why the rush on getting a shot off if you're getting open looks? Maybe afraid of turning the ball over? KU defended the three by creating turnovers, by forcing OSU to hurriedly jack up threes without running the offense. Plus as other posters said, taking away the inside game certainly causes more mental pressure when you haven't seen the ball go in the basket in awhile.

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Steve Gantz 1 year, 9 months ago

I've always thought three pointers are more mental than physical. It's really not that hard of a shot. But put good shooters in front of a home crowd who's looking for vengeance and suddenly the shooting becomes a bit wobbly, as OSU clearly demonstrated Saturday.

0

Michael Luby 1 year, 9 months ago

Thanks Jesse, That was very informative to me. After the game I was upset a bit that our 3pt defense seemed a bit, ah, light. I was particularly frustrated with Young but I guess he was one of the better ones! Those guys just need to stick to their man on the perimeter just enough to prevent a team from getting hot from 3 while keeping the post well guarded. Otherwise, come tourney time, we might be in trouble.

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thomc6 1 year, 9 months ago

Nice analysis, Jesse. However, a major component of 3 pt defense is not allowing the shot in the first place. There were several instances in which KU players closed quickly on OSU players on the perimeter which forced them to refrain from shooting and to start a dribble or pass the ball on. This may also have had a secondary effect on their accuracy since when they are again in position to shoot, they know that a KU defender may come flying at them at any second. So in addition to interfering with or blocking the shots directly, defense against the 3's involves shot prevention, making the shooter concerned that a KU defender will be closing on them at any second, and guarding and playing at an intensity that causes fatigue. Do agree that OSU had too many totally open shots....ones that other teams,could exploit, say like VCU or NIU .

1

KGphoto 1 year, 9 months ago

Love the analysis and I agree that it seems tough to accurately pin the percentages to the level of guarding. How about another analysis comparing percentages to spots on the floor where the shot was taken. You see this broken down during games sometimes with "makes" and "misses" being represented with different color dots overlaid on a half-court image.

Instead how about a breakdown of each player and where they like to take their shots from? And how many times KU kept them out of their hot spot. I realize this would be a TON of work because you would have to go through every game of each opposing player, but it would be nice for a coach to know such things.

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Brandon Pope 1 year, 9 months ago

I am not totally surprised at this. In fact the bell shaped curve here is what I guessed it would be before I read the analysis. The reason is two fold and one has already been covered.

  1. Tired legs. The more open three point shots you get up vs a high caliber defense the more likely that defense is tired and by consequence the more likely they shooter is tired. Is hard to elevate on those shots when you have been going up and down in a high paced game. Very few shooters at the college level hav he ability to slow themselves down both physically and mentally to shoot a deep jumper with good form when they have been running up And down. Fortunately for us, McNasty has this rare talent and his jumper look pure regardless of how the game is being played.

  2. There is such a thing as being too open. Players do better when they are shooting in their comfort zone. That typically involves being guarded and playing through some contact. When a guy gets a wide open shot its unfamiliar in game time situations and in the brief instant before the shot is release most players think something along the lines of "can't miss this when I am so wide open". The pressure is on. On the flip side, when a player is rubbing their guy off a screen and curling towards a brisk pass to shoot a somewhat guarded jump shot in the rhythm of his offense the pressure goes way down.

I think the fact that a lot of these unguarded looks came in the second half and what we know of the mentality of shooting open threes this is all pretty expected. Great analysis though.

As far as KU goes, I think the lesson here is the same lesson my coaches used to preach to me. If your man is going to be shooting threes then you better arrive when the ball does and get a hand in his face on the shot. If you don't do that, you might as well not be guarding him. The only exception is that guys may miss more of their wide open looks, but no coach would ever admit that.

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