Recap: Startling numbers about KU's recent losses as a double-digit favorite in the NCAAs

Posted by Jesse Newell March 29, 2011 at 4:18 p.m.

Note: Here is a listing of definitions for some terms used in this blog. Also, feel free to ask questions in the comments section below if something doesn't make sense.

It's two days after VCU's 71-61 victory over Kansas in the Elite Eight, and honestly, the longer I think about it, the worse I think this loss was for KU.

Josh Selby consoles Markieff Morris in locker room by Mike Yoder

Because it was the Elite Eight and not the first or second round, most KU fans I've read on here have been pretty forgiving and have seemed to shrug off the defeat as "one of those days."

It's just tough for me to see it that way when KU had probably the easiest path in history to the national championship game (KenPom had KU with a 49-percent chance to win the whole thing before the VCU game) before failing to even make the Final Four.

Let's start with this: KU coach Bill Self is a victim of his own success. He took a top-15 preseason team and molded it into one of the best in the country. He won at least a share of his seventh straight Big 12 title and also led his team to a 35-2 record before its final loss.

But that amazing success in the regular season just boosts expectations for the postseason. He's his own worst enemy in that regard.

Kansas head coach Bill Self directs the offense against Virginia Commonwealth during the first half on Sunday, March 27, 2011 at the Alamodome in San Antonio. by Nick Krug

Having said all that, KU should have cakewalked to the Final Four after getting by Illinois.

I know I bring up KenPom a lot, and his projections gave KU an 88-percent chance of winning the game against VCU on a neutral court. And trust me, the Alamodome was anything but neutral, as KU fans outnumbered the other fans about 10-to-1.

The percentages for KU losing by 10? I can't think that would be better than 1 in 100.

But let's forget KenPom for a second and just look at the Vegas lines. KU was an 11-point favorite over VCU.

I've heard the argument that these same types of upsets in the NCAA Tournament have happened lately at the other big-name schools as well.

I did some research, and that simply isn't true.

Since the 2003-04 season (Self's first at KU), I looked back at all the NCAA Tournament games for the four biggest name college basketball programs: Kansas, Kentucky, Duke and North Carolina.

During that time span, those four teams have gone a combined 31-4 in games where they were favored by 10 points or more in Vegas.

The four losses? Take a look below.

2004 — Kentucky favored by 10 (loss to UAB)
2005 — Kansas favored by 13.5 (loss to Bucknell)
2010 — Kansas favored by 11.5 (loss to Northern Iowa)
2011 — Kansas favored by 11 (loss to VCU)

As a double-favorite in the NCAA Tournament in the last eight years, North Carolina is 10-0. Duke is 9-0. Kentucky is 4-1.

And Kansas is 8-3*.

* — It's worth noting that Kentucky and North Carolina both failed to make the NCAA Tournament during certain seasons in that stretch — something else to keep in mind. Self gets KU to the Tournament every year, which is a credit to him.

When favored by 10-12 points in the last two seasons, KU is 10-0 before the NCAA Tournament. And 1-2 during the NCAA Tournament.

It's something that can't be ignored.

The Kansas Jayhawks sit in a somber locker room following their 71-61 loss to Virginia Commonwealth on Sunday, March 27, 2011 at the Alamodome in San Antonio. by Nick Krug

On Sunday, much of KU's improbable loss was blamed on its shooting.

The best shooting team in the nation (KU had a 57 percent effective field-goal percentage* coming in) posted an eFG% of 37.1 percent — the worst shooting performance by the Jayhawks in the last two seasons.

* — eFG% takes into account the extra value of three-pointers by giving them 1.5 times the credit of twos.

KU also made just 2 of 21 threes (9.5 percent), also its worst mark in the last two years.

How bad was it for KU? Here's a typical shot chart for KU, this one from the first half against Richmond. The circled numbers mean a shot was made, while the numbers to the side of the baseline are layups.

by Jesse Newell

Now, look at KU's second half against VCU.

by Jesse Newell

That's right. The Jayhawks made just one true jump shot in 18 second-half attempts (5.6 percent).

Can this be explained? The best shooting team in the nation making one jump shot in an entire half?

Kansas guard Tyrel Reed attempts a shot under the outstretched arm of Virginia Commonwealth guard Bradford Burgess during the first half on Sunday, March 27, 2011 at the Alamodome in San Antonio. by Nick Krug

You can call it a bad shooting day, but uncanny poor shooting is becoming a pattern for KU in its recent Elite Eight games.

Below are KU's effective field-goal percentages from Self's four Elite Eight appearances, along with KU's season average for eFG% that year.

2004 vs. Georgia Tech — 44.6 eFG% (season eFG% of 51.4%)
2007 vs. UCLA — 44.6 eFG% (season eFG% of 54.5%)
2008 vs. Davidson — 49.0 eFG% (season eFG% of 56.7%)
2011 vs. VCU — 37.1 eFG% (season eFG% of 57.0%)

The point here isn't that KU shot worse than its season average. That's most likely going to happen against a tough opponent in the NCAA Tournament.

In almost all the games, though, KU's shot significantly worse than its season average.

I looked up free-throw percentages from the Elite Eight games, and KU shot below its average in each of those four games as well.

Again, it's something worth exploring for Self. What's the reason for his team's tight play, especially in that Elite Eight round?

"It's amazing to me that we're 6-1 in Sweet 16 and 1-5 in Elite Eight games," Self said Tuesday. "That's the kind of stuff. I need to look at. ... This was the loosest we've ever been going into a game. Even our coaches said, 'Gawdang, if you're tight, no one knows it.' The loosest we've been, so that doesn't guarantee anything either."

It sure appeared to be a different Self once he stepped on the sideline.

One national media member, after watching Self on the bench during the VCU game, told me it almost seemed to him like Self was strangling his team on the sidelines with quick subouts and sharp words, and his team seemed to respond negatively because of it.

Kansas head coach Bill Self walks the sideline during the second half of KU's loss to Virginia Commonwealth Sunday, March 27, 2011 at the Alamodome in San Antonio. by Mike Yoder

Self can't shoot shots, but he can affect the mindset of his team during those games.

Some of these NCAA occurrences don't look like flukes any more. They're starting to look like patterns.

And Self — as he promised Tuesday — will surely do some self-examination to see how his team could be better prepared in future years.

M.O.J. (Most Outstanding Jayhawk)

Only two KU players can even be considered for this award, and though Marcus Morris played harder, Tyshawn Taylor earns the M.O.J. for being a little bit better.

Kansas guard Tyshawn Taylor defends a drive by Virginia Commonwealth guard Darius Theus during the second half on Sunday, March 27, 2011 at the Alamodome in San Antonio. by Nick Krug

Amazingly, the junior guard was the only player on the Jayhawks’ roster to post better than 1 point per possession used against VCU. Taylor notched 1.23 PPP used while ending 17.8 percent of KU’s possessions. His floor percentage (the percentage of possessions he ended where KU scored at least one point) was a team-high 61.3 percent.

Taylor also led KU in effective field-goal percentage (66.6 percent, no one else shot above 46 percent) and assist percentage, contributing 24.6 percent of KU’s assists when he was in.

He just didn’t get help offensively from anyone besides Marcus (0.94 PPP used, 28.6 percent possessions ended).

Room for Improvement

VCU came in scoring 35.4 percent of its points from three-pointers. On Sunday, the Rams scored 50.7 percent of their points from threes.

Kansas guard Brady Morningstar defends a three-pointer from Virginia Commonwealth forward Bradford Burgess during the first half on Sunday, March 27, 2011 at the Alamodome in San Antonio. by Nick Krug

Yes, VCU did hit some tough threes, but it also hit some wide-open ones as well.

Whether it was poor execution of the gameplan or a bad gameplan, KU unnecessarily helped way too much on dribble penetration, allowing the Rams to kick out for open shots.

It was a drastic two-game turnaround for KU’s perimeter defense. After holding 40-percent three-point shooting Richmond to 4-for-26 outside shooting on Friday (15.4 percent), KU allowed 37-percent three-point shooting VCU to hit 12 of 25 threes on Sunday (48 percent).

Coming in, three-point defense hadn’t been a KU weakness. Opponents had made just 29.8 percent of their threes against KU.

That didn’t matter much to VCU, which made 9 of its first 15 threes during the decisive first half.

Here’s a stat I picked up from John Gasaway on Twitter: In five NCAA Tournament games, VCU has made 43.8 percent of its two-pointers. And 43.8 percent of its three-pointers.

I’m not sure why KU’s defenders were so worried about helping out on drives at the risk of giving up open threes, but it definitely cost the Jayhawks.

Tough-Luck Line

In a game full of bad performances, Josh Selby’s was the worst.

Josh Selby has little to celebrate on birthday

The freshman posted just 0.57 points per possession used while ending 11.7 percent of KU’s possessions. In 15 minutes, he also had no rebounds, no assists, no steals and no turnovers.

There’s some debate on the usefulness of the plus-minus statistic, but Selby’s was so bad on Sunday that it’s hard to ignore.

During his 15 minutes on the court, KU was outscored 35-15. That also means, in his 25 minutes off the court, KU outscored VCU by 10.

The play-by-play makes things look even worse.

Selby checked into the game at the 13:38 mark of the first half with KU trailing 12-10. When he left the court at the 9:48 mark, KU trailed 20-10.

Then, in the second half, Selby checked in at the 13:11 mark with KU trailing 46-44. When Selby checked out at the 8:48 mark, KU trailed 57-47.

That’s not all on Selby, obviously. He was part of some funky rotations then, and he was one of only five players out there.

That doesn't change the fact that he was on the court for two of the most important stretches of Sunday’s game. And during those nine minutes, KU was outscored 19-3.

The VCU bench celebrates a turnover against Kansas on Sunday, March 27, 2011 at the Alamodome in San Antonio. by Mike Yoder

I often talk about players’ points per possessions used. Multiply this number by 100, and you have the statistic known as a player’s offensive rating.

Here are the final offensive ratings for KU’s rotation players this season, along with their percent of possessions ended, from KenPom.com:

Brady Morningstar 122.7 (14.9 percent)
Marcus Morris 122.1 (26 percent)
Tyrel Reed 122.1 (13.1 percent)
Markieff Morris 120.4 (25 percent)
Travis Releford 118.4 (17.1 percent)
Elijah Johnson 114.9 (13.7 percent)
Mario Little 114.0 (18.6 percent)
Jeff Withey 110.0 (20 percent)
Thomas Robinson 109.0 (26.5 percent)
Tyshawn Taylor 104.2 (21.3 percent)
Josh Selby 94.2 (23.8 percent)

Not only Selby the worst offensive player efficiency-wise for KU, he was the worst player by a good margin. He also was the fourth-highest usage player on the team, meaning oftentimes he was taking offensive possessions away from more efficient players.

When Selby became eligible in December, many wondered how much better he could make KU’s offense.

The numbers would tell us that he only made it worse.

Bottom Line

KU scored just 0.9 points per possession, the second-worst offensive performance of the season for the Jayhawks behind the Texas loss.

Kansas forward Marcus Morris pleads to Markieff Morris and Brady Morningstar to get it together against Virginia Commonwealth during the first half on Sunday, March 27, 2011 at the Alamodome in San Antonio. by Nick Krug

Though KU's offensive rebounding was well above season average (42.2 percent offensive rebounding percentage, compared to season OR% of 36.7 percent) and its turnovers weren't bad (20.6 turnover percentage, which is a good number against VCU), it didn't matter because of the difference in the teams' shooting percentages.

VCU's eFG% of 50.9 percent was just above its season average, while KU's eFG% of 37.1 percent was its worst this season by a mile.

The Rams — coming in not even as a top-100 team in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric — held KU to the 17th-worst shooting game from a Big 12 team this entire season.

If that's a coincidence, then some pretty unnatural forces were at work Sunday.

There's no doubt Self did a good job this year of learning from the Northern Iowa loss to become a better Tournament coach. He was more focused on dictating tempo this year, pressing Boston and Richmond to speed them up, which helped the Jayhawks pull away during both games in the second half.

The growth should continue after this game.

Kansas head coach Bill Self, left, and Thomas Robinson (0) watch from the bench as the VCU Rams jump to an early lead on Sunday, March 27, 2011 at the Alamodome in San Antonio. by Mike Yoder

I heard someone say that this isn't the worst Tournament loss for KU under Self, but it was the biggest blown opportunity. And I agree with that. To make the Final Four, KU had to win four games when it was favored by at least eight points in each game. Then, to make the championship game, KU would have to had beat Butler — a game where it once again would have been about an eight-point favorite.

KU will never, in any year, have an easier road than that.

Self still seems to become a different coach in NCAA Tournament games: His screams are louder, his rants to the officials are longer, his sideline demeanor is more animated and his yanking of bench players is quicker.

I'm not sure why it's necessary when something else has led you to a 32-2 record.

After the Jayhawks scored the first six points on Sunday, VCU went on a 39-15 run. Think about that. How many times this season has KU allowed a team to show that kind of dominance over it?

During the stretch, KU's players looked tight. And nervous. And panicked.

No team can get to 35-2 unless it follows its coach's lead.

KU's players might have been doing that again — only this time, to their detriment.

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SCHNBALL 2 years, 1 month ago

Jesse, if you read my comments right before tip, I was concerned about our overated 3 point defense and how well we stopped the 3 against Richmond. What Self has not figured out and what Cal and Shaka have this year is don't double the post, it's not worth it.

Look at Cal's comments after his last 2 games and the board in VCU locker room righ before the tip, straight up on the post with a little digging. Made 3's are worth a possession and a half, as Selby put it, they were not throwing up shot's they were shooting them, with ease.

Self needs an assistant that can game coach to help him, great guy, just to uptight when it counts.

mikendal 2 years, 1 month ago

After reading the CramSession Jesse, everything sounded peachy and good but I did mention that Coach Self had only won one Elite 8 game in four attempts? Five attempts? So, I was a little nervous going into this game, having seen VCU in person. My gut feeling was we were going to struggle. SCHNBALL, I had your concerns, too!

dnvrhawk 2 years, 1 month ago

I've got an idea. Let's just stink up the regular season and the conference, so we don't make it to the Big Dance. Then the Media/opposing fans won't have an opportunity to blast the Jayhawks for choking. Geeze! Give it a rest!!!! KU shot like crap. VCU got lucky. End of story.

drbloom 2 years, 1 month ago

Every stat-head will make numbers conform to what they want them to be. Of course anyone who saw that game, knows KU lost it about every way possible. What isn't in the stat book is how many TERRIBLE calls killed momentum or outright gave VCU another chance to score. Bad officiating can easily leave players wondering if they should drive or pull up because in that game in particular, what was a foul one way was most certainly not called on the other end of the court.
Blasting Selby or Reed or Morningstar seems in vogue, but give the PAID knuckleheads their just desserts. The kids were shaken after VCU made every 3 and seemed to get all the 50/50 calls. We got closer, but then two phantom calls had us back to where we didn't know if there was time left. I watched the game a day later and without any doubt there was missed calls just as bad as any KU player's bad play. For instance 8 minutes in, watch Burgess make a 3 and jaw off at Self who was 1 foot behind him. Technical Foul. Nope, not called. 3 minutes before half, Taylor guards point at midcourt and the ref actually hand signals to 5 seconds. Not called.

Nationally people want the top team to lose, and when KU does win by 11 or whatever, they just move on. KU only has devastating losses because we win 69 home games in a row and other stats so befuddling that we try to understand how it is that KU can ever lose a game. It hurt to watch, but with only so many possessions per game, eventually the dice will show up snake eyes.

KUMatt2001 2 years, 1 month ago

I am definitely not one to blame the refs, but seriously do think a lot of the fouls called on us left players, like Brady when he got those two called back-to-back, wondering what they are supposed to do, not play defense? And when Self stresses "concentrate on defense and your shots will fall" it might kill the players confidence when shooting. The refs won't let me play defense the way I want to, so I guess I'll try to score instead. It also might get in their head 'another phantom foul call and I'm on the bench, so I better score while I have the chance.'

tka 2 years, 1 month ago

drbloom, I think you are dead on. I was complaining more about the officiating in this game than I can remember. And calling them "phantom" calls is absolutely accurate. There were just too many to count. When we lose games due to just poor play, ie; Texas and K-State, I'm willing to accept it. But when something seems rotten with the officiating and it directly affects the outcome of the game, I will call foul. NCAA basketball officiating just seems to be getting more and more suspect. I just want it to be called fair and am not really about, "oh, the calls will balance out". NO! That's absolutely absurd! make the call when it happens. And blatantly swallowing your whistle on a mugging in the post on Marcus Morris late in the game was atrocious. BTW, I didn't even know about the Burgess thing, which should've warranted a technical. I think the NCAA really wants the "cinderella" teams to win out as much as possible. After all, it's good for business.

squawkhawk 2 years, 1 month ago

Here's what the rest of the country thinks of us right now (from a headline in the Austin Statesman..."Hey Kansas, VCU later!". Ughhh!

cklarock 2 years, 1 month ago

Austin's just glad somebody finally beat us. After the tragic nose-dive to lose the Big 12, they could use a bit of schadenfreude.

kureignman 2 years, 1 month ago

Jesse, I anxiously awaited your Statistical analysis after every game (including the 2 losses) except for this one. I was secretly hoping that maybe you were not going to post it after the VCU loss. Anyway, just wanted to thank you for your recaps throughout the season. Men lie, women lie, numbers don't.

KU62 2 years, 1 month ago

Really, I think Will Rogers had it right 80 years ago:

There's liars, then there's damned liars, and then there's statisticians.

dochambers 2 years ago

Dear KU62: Will may have never met a man he didn't like, but the quotation you paraphrase was popularized by Mark Twain...who attributed it to Benjamin Disraeli.

Jacobpaul81 2 years, 1 month ago

Numbers can lie too. Numbers typically have not reflected Tyshawn Taylor's level of play all season. This was one of the few occasions where they did. I don't trust numbers anymore than I trust my own eyes. I want to see the whole picture. What I see and what it is on a paper and make my evaluation based on that.

bradyboy 2 years, 1 month ago

Ku and Memphis is in earn classic. Currently 1124 in the second half.

gchawk 2 years, 1 month ago

???

TaylorWitt 2 years, 1 month ago

Here's hoping Selby either goes pro or plays like a pro next year. Just unbelievable numbers from a kid so highly recruited. Self is 0-2 on "can't miss" prospects when you include Xavier, and I think he should maybe try to stay away from Coach Cal Kids like them.

KU flat choked, there's no question, and they're one of three programs in the country that will end this tournament completely devastated. Ohio State and Pitt are the other two. KU fans are spoiled because of the ridiculous regular season success that Self has had, and he does have 08 to show that he can win in the post season, but these crushing losses to mid-majors are just so much more horrible than if they had lost to, say, Louisville or Notre Dame or Purdue. Those teams have talent, they've played in big games, they wouldn't shock the world if they beat KU. But Bradley, Bucknell, Northern Iowa, and VCU will be Self's legacy, which is incredibly sad but not completely undeserved.

squawkhawk 2 years, 1 month ago

So is Self the coach that everyone thinks he is or has he simply been the benefactor of KU's history and reputation? You decide.

DCSven 2 years, 1 month ago

Squawk -- THAT'S the most ludicrous thing I've heard. Ever. On any message board. Or Twitter. Or any place else the nattering nabobs of negativism and arm chair coaches gather to bash and bemoan. "History and reputation" would go 0-25 every season. It's recruiting and coaching that wins. I've resisted coming on this site since the loss and couldn't even look at Twitter during the game -- WHY? -- Not because of the coach and players, but because of the "history and reputation" of Kansas fans -- some of the most NEGATIVE, angry, entitled and boorish people to ever assemble. I've seen many post-season games, and followed the 'hawks east and west when they came close to where I was living -- I'm usually embarrassed by the fans, not the team. Games are played, teams lose, but because our coach delivers only a handful of losses each year, each one is dissected and overblown by an overwrought, arrogant fan base that actually pretends to be supportive, but only seeks to have their egos fed through the actual effort of college kids. Get a grip, or a life. Jesse -- the stats are awesome and the fact that Self can usually spout the most arcane stats in his immediate post-game pressers means he's clued in. He's already asking the right questions. How many coaches have been in longer and still not won a championship? Where does one factor in the PRESSURE that the WHINE and cheese fan base, and the armies of virtual online coaches, put on a program to always win -- how does that impact how tight Self is, and thus how tight his players play? Self is an enormously driven and successful coach in a historic program -- but history is BS on the court -- and while fans should be proud of it -- it's time we all shift our mindset and brand just a bit -- let's focus on the here and now and stop thinking that we're entitled to ANYTHING because of who we are. That helps with recruiting, but frankly, after seeing how fans react, one has to wonder how many recruits reading these pages will opt for other programs. Parity is here, it has been for while. But in the rarefied pages of the history books, Kansas fans seem stuck in the past, as opposed to recognizing this stat: p-a-r-i-t-y. Big isn't better, old isn't better -- hang it up -- the reason the nation cheers against us isn't our coach or players, its our arrogant fan base. Thank you HCBS and one of the greatest teams in history, that has lived into our school's fine reputation well. Too bad our fans can't live up to the standards the school or the program set. Glad I'm not in Kansas Anymore.

cklarock 2 years, 1 month ago

85% win percentage says hi.

Jacobpaul81 2 years, 1 month ago

What is so surprising? He's a freshman. It should be expected.

KU's had many great players who struggled in their first season. Few come to Kansas and start or put in significant minutes. Freshman are rarely ready to take the court on day one.. or even by the end of year one.

benshawks08 2 years, 1 month ago

Wow those Selby stats are crazy! I just commented on another story about how in my head I thought Selby should have gotten more time to see if he could get hot but completely changed my mind when I saw the box score of 15 minutes 1-5 and 0-3 from 3. Pretty clear that Self gave him the opportunity and he just didn't rise to the occasion.

The real question is with our supposedly deep bench why was Selby the only bench player to get more than 10 minutes? Thomas kept himself out with fouls, but EJ and Mario only got 6 minutes and Releford was credited with none (I thought I saw him in there). For a team with "a lot of best players" Self sure didn't think so on Sunday.

Are there any stats to back up the theory that Self shortens his bench more in those elite eight games or other early losses? It sure seems like he does. The one that sticks out to me is either Bucknell or Bradley (i get them confused now) when it seemed like Self left Roy's seniors out there to win it on their own.

tydon27 2 years, 1 month ago

Mario was a liability this game. Jacked up shots and doesn't play any defense. EJ basically played like he did before TT got suspended and didn't contribute anything offensively the past 6 games or so. The refs killed our energy man off the bench with the 2 ticky tack fouls, and then a 3 one later in the half. Self put Selby out there with this group and put the pressure on him to bring the offense when he hadn't done that all year.

ralster 2 years, 1 month ago

benshawks08, Self left RoysBoys in to win it, since Roy left a pretty thin bench...but then without warning, against VCU, we dont look like ourselves in multiple areas of the game...starters and bench guys...no surprise we lost after you review the gamefilm.

d_prowess 2 years, 1 month ago

This may be one of Jesse's best blogs ever. So informative it is scary!

justinryman 2 years, 1 month ago

Jesse, I wrote a very heart felt Thank you to the team in the blog section of this web site, and it is not apologetic, it's just a Thank you for a season that was still a very good if not great season.

I do agree, the loss to VCU was a bad one, just like it would have been to Richmond as well. It's hard to overcome such a substantial deficit, the 18 at half. But they tried, even with the horrible shooting they still made a run at the Rams until they physically and emotionally ran out of gas, that's what happens when you put that much effort into coming back. Just ask the '08 UNC team.

It has to be said that losing in the Elite 8 doesn't settle well and you head the nail on the head about Coach Self being his own worst enemy. He won his seventh straight Big 12 Conference title, and do we as KU fans want to give that up to Missouri or Texas or K-State? No, this is our conference. Especially winning it this year when one Dick Vitale picked KU 5th in the preseason.

I hate when any season ends on a loss, but really only 3 teams get to finish theirs on a win. Champions of The NCAA, NIT and CBI Tournaments, and let's face it, the NIT and CBI are not worth ending your season with a win, when you are Kansas.

I really hope when the lemons leave everyones taste buds they will be able to look back at this team and see how much they accomplished and overcame.

J.F.L. (Jayhawk For Life)

WWWW 2 years, 1 month ago

I have a slightly different take. I watched Self closely during the Illinois game. He never smiled. He's not enjoying this. In fact many of the elite coaches don't appear to enjoy this. I don't think Roy ever enjoyed this. It's hard to tell with Coach K - I think he's more the John Wooden type - you have a game plan and you've prepared - all you can do is sit back and execute. Maybe he needs a better bench coach, or maybe he needs a player with a calming influence on the rest of the team. I do wonder why he didn't employ Releford and Johnson far more in the VCU game or go to a zone just to put the team in a different frame of mind (to focus less on chasing and more on keeping someone in front of you). Speaking of Selby - it was the same for Xavier Henry last year. The reason you have a top 5 recruit is just for these situations - your offense stinks and somebody has to want the ball. Henry did none of that in the NIU game, either.

tka 2 years, 1 month ago

In my opinion, this team just didn't have the leadership Self needed to be ultimately effective. When we won it all in 2008, there was so much leadership. Starting lineup and bench. That goes a long way. And I seem to remember Self being a bit nervous in that Davidson game, but relatively relaxed otherwise (like Carolina). I chalk that up to player leadership. Which we did not have this year. Sure, Brady and Tyrel were seniors, but led more by example than motivation.

justinryman 2 years, 1 month ago

p.s.

Jesse I am not aiming my last post at you, well not all of it, just the beginning. I just feel this team over achieved and people are to quick to jump to conclusions of disappointment. Even though this team wasn't supposed to succeed, it did and well when you don't win it all you end with disappointment.

FreddyinLA 2 years, 1 month ago

The time for Self reflection and evaluation was after last year UNI meltdown. I believe his comments after that blunder was he wasn’t going to look at the game film. Exact opposite of what should have happened.

You can’t win the weekend game of the only tourney that matters when you have ruined the confidence of the reserves and reduced their roles to glorified spectators.

30+ minutes for the five starters in the weekend game equals dead legs and abysmal 3 point and free throw percentages.

Selby was completely mishandled this year. This is why he will not be back next year.

justinryman 2 years, 1 month ago

p.p.s

By the way a very good statistical break down and a great look into the game itself Jesse. It seems like you go above and beyond with some of your looks into games. You are either really analytical or have a crack research department, I will go with option 1.

Thanks for doing such a great job of keeping people like myself and many others so well informed about the Jayhawks. Keep up the good work, I appreciate it all the way up here in Nebraska.

J.F.L.

ncoles 2 years, 1 month ago

Fascinating analysis. I remember reading somewhere that there was a correlation between KU's tournament losses and the scouting reports completed by specific assistant coaches. Is there any truth to that? Just curious.

history_coach 2 years, 1 month ago

I appreciate stats as much as the next guy, but seriously....the media is out of control on Bill Self and the Elite 8 "failure." How many schools would kill to have 4 Elite 8's in 8 years (and 3 out of last 5 with 1 national title)? By the way, his Elite 8 at Tulsa was a HUGE success, not failure and his 1st Elite 8 at KU were success too. Nobody expected that type of run as a 1st year coach at KU without his type of guys. If I was Self, I'd be tight too...the media won't get off of his back.

Would KU "fans" rather we were Mizzou or K-State? Middle of the conference pack and happy to get in the tournament?

Don't be spoiled KU fans. Enjoy the 35 wins, 7th straight conference title, and conference tourney. If those don't matter to you, then I guess we should just have 5 months of practice and 1 national title tournament.

mispay4ku 2 years, 1 month ago

+1 Although this year looked to be ours, well...once the tournament started because I can't say that I thought so all season long, it ended up not to be. We're not going to win every single Championship but the successes have been great at KU. And history_coach is right...it all matters and we had many amazing moments this season that I am proud of. Sure we should have won against VCU, that's a given but I also think there were many other fallen teams who "should have" beat their opponents, too. It happens...it sucks when it happens but I don't for one second think that I hurt more than coach Self and the guys do. None of them wanted to disappoint the fans that they so often thank. I just think it's our job to be supportive and appreciative of the great program that we have. And let the haters say their "choke" jokes...you can only choke when you are expected to win and we're ALWAYS expected to win. The higher you climb the harder you fall.

dek9219 2 years, 1 month ago

drbloom 2 years, 1 month ago

+1 Exactly! KU only has devastating losses because they happen about as often as Oklahoma loses a football game. Would you trade being a KU fan for a Kentucky fan and a coach who has made the Final Four two other times to have both appearances "washed away" because he cheats? Hell no!

Self is a great coach, he made a decent team amazing this year, and he will again next year. And you will enjoy 30-some wins and then bemoan him once we lose to end the season. We'll never miss the tournament, and probably never lose the Big12 while he coaches in Lawrence, and somehow that's not good enough.... Tell me how good you all are at your job????

gerald_bostock 2 years, 1 month ago

great article and research, jesse. somehow, make sure Bill and the other coaches read this

ralster 2 years, 1 month ago

No. Anyone can look up box stats. See my rationale below...

PikesPeakSmitty 2 years, 1 month ago

Great article Jesse. My thoughts from being at the game and reading these posts...keeping in mind that I think Bill Self and KU are awesome.

I do think there's a part in saying "bad luck" or "one of those days", especially when I think stepping on the baseline twice and our shooting in the first half.

KU looked tired, and I think it's due to our relentless defense and rebounding in the second half. I hope our team didn't stay up too late the nights before. I also think we may have over-guarding their drives. One of the biggest shots of the second half came as a VCU guard easily drove on TT who then kicked it out for a wide open huge shot at the top of the key. Although it's painful to play our bench over starters in huge games, I think this shows that it's a must.

I thought we had it won after the VCU technical... wasn't the 'neutral site' KU crowd awesome?! Marcus getting called for a block instead of getting the charge killed a run. Reed also got hammered in the corner on a press leading to a turnover and score. It also killed us to miss 2-3 dunks by getting stuffed late in the game. I never saw the replays and don't want to.

I just hope the twins know there's no FOE in the NBA. One more year!

HawkBBall 2 years, 1 month ago

Great analysis, Jesse. To me, the team looked either tired or confused. I didn't think they were tight until the the shots were not falling. I began to think they were exhausted, and wondered what the team did between Friday night and Sunday. I thought the same fatigue that cost us the Texas game in Lawrence was haunting us again. If it was not exhaustion, then it had to be a lack of mental preparation.

I, too, did not understand the rotation, or the lack thereof. I wondered why Josh and not EJ or Travis. I saw a lot of complaining to the referees from Coach Self, much of which was justified. I saw him barking at the players.

To suceed in this single-elimination tournament, you have to be prepared mentally. Whatever the reason for this loss, it falls squarely on the coach.

dylans 2 years, 1 month ago

I didn't see fatigue in the Jayhawks, but I did see the VCU players sucking air at times. The Hawks didn't guard, didn't hit shots, and didn't listen to the scouting report according to the players themselves. They looked shell shocked in the first half and dug too deep a hole.

dek9219 2 years, 1 month ago

the Hawks were drained, and I don't know why you didn't see that. Tugging at their shorts midway through the first half was a telling sign. Not sure why they were so drained as they weren't guarding hard enough to be so physically tired.

stupidmichael 2 years, 1 month ago

Well, excuse me while I shoot myself.

KUbsee69 2 years, 1 month ago

Nobody could understand the pressure the coaches and players feel at a top tier school. The annual expectations at KU are far beyond those at all but a couple of schools. The pressure during the NCAA tournament is surely magnified by the consequences factor.

During the season, a loss is just one loss out of thirty or so games. You just mark it down, and go on from there. But in the tournament, one loss and you're gone. So, of course, the coach's and player's demeanor is bound to be different. When did you ever see the players come to tears over a regular season game?

The coaches & players at a school like VCU are not held to the standards and expectations of KU. They have nothing to lose. Therefore, they don't feel the same pressures. You can't really dull a mat finish.

So, yeah, we're all disappointed. But, lets stop the overanalysis and the blame game. The grief in any of us can not compare to that felt by the players & coaches.

Eride 2 years, 1 month ago

LOL.

Only an absolutely pathetic fan base would whine and complain about the ability of a coach who has accomplished what Self has at Kansas.

Guess what. KU was great this year, but even great teams lose. That is why the overall number one seed almost never wins the tournament. That is why a team hasn't won the title while going undefeated for decades. Teams have an off day, and they lose.

Self has managed to win at least a share of 7 straight conference titles and 4 out of the 5 last conference tournament titles. He has also overseen 3 Elite Eight runs (and 1 national championship) in five years and been the coach for almost the entire time span (10 years) while KU amassed the most NCAA tournament victories of any school. Before this guy even came to our school he managed to bring a crappy mid-major program and a crappy major to the Elite Eight. He is the only active coach that, I know of, that has brought three different programs to an Elite Eight (that hasn't had those victories revoked for NCAA violations).

Basically. This guy has accomplished amazing things both before and after he came here. He has proved he knows how to coach as good or better than the best coaches in America... and yet you guys are doing nothing but whining incessantly about his coaching ability.

What a bunch of poor, pathetic fans you guys are. And what a lame hometown newspaper for support such inappropriate negativity with a constant stream of negative articles. Try celebrating what this team did accomplish instead of focusing on one sad, disappointing moment.

dnvrhawk 2 years, 1 month ago

Winner, winner, chicken dinner!!!!!!

FairgroveJayhawk 2 years, 1 month ago

Completely agree.

mgolany 2 years, 1 month ago

Jesse I have to tell you this article mad me cry like a baby! To think of all the tough teams we could have lost to but to lose to a team we crush on the regular hurts so much. We had a spot on the final four on the line and we blew it. We blew it and it pains me to say we had a great chance for another national title and we blew it and I'm crying and this article hammered it home. It was a great season!

kusayzone 2 years, 1 month ago

I hope this article represents the last nail in the coffin. Sometimes we forget the human part of the game, and in our society, something has to be the blame for the bad that routinely happens. 35-3. That is enough for anyone to say that KU has a fantastic season. The best and most talented team doesnt always win the tourney. My money is that KU will be back next year in full blaze of glory, and VCU-well I would figure their return, especially if they lose their coach... How many days until Late Night? I cant wait!