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"6.5 wins and no excuses" doesn't have the same ring

If Colorado coach Dan Hawkins is serious about his "10 wins and no excuses" for his Buffaloes this season, he can have his friends put their money where his mouth is.

http://worldonline.media.clients.ellingtoncms.com/img/blogs/entry_img/2009/Jul/20/Hawkins_.jpg

The college football future odds have been released by Vegasinsider.com, and, not surprisingly, sports books have slightly lower expectations for the Buffs.

Vegas Insider's predicted win total for Colorado this season is 6.5. So even if Hawkins's team falls three wins short of his prediction, his friends would still be rolling in the dough if they bet the over.

For fun, here are the predicted regular-season win totals for the Big 12 teams*:

Baylor 5
Kansas State 5.5
Texas A&M 5.5
Missouri 6.5
Colorado 6.5
Texas Tech 8
Nebraska 8
Kansas 8
Oklahoma State 9
Oklahoma 9.5
Texas 10.5

* — Iowa State was not listed.

And here are the odds for each of the conference teams to win the Big 12 Championship Game:

Texas 13/10 
Oklahoma 8/5 
Kansas 5/1
Nebraska 5/1 
Oklahoma State 8/1 
Missouri 20/1 
Colorado 20/1 
Texas Tech 20/1 
Kansas State 40/1 
Baylor 40/1 
Texas A&M 40/1 
Iowa State 75/1 

So here's my question to you guys.

If I gave you $10 right now and said you had to make a bet with it on one of the above odds, which one would you take*?

* — This, of course, is just hypothetical. For one, I'm not promoting that anyone gamble. For two, I can't afford giving everyone $10, though that would be nice of me.

In other words, which of the above numbers looks the most off to you?

I think I'd have to put my 10 Monopoly dollars on the over 9.5 wins for Oklahoma.

http://worldonline.media.clients.ellingtoncms.com/img/blogs/entry_img/2009/Jul/20/monopoly.jpg

Though I don't think the Sooners will win the South, I wouldn't be shocked if they did.

To finish with fewer than 9.5 wins, OU would have to lose three games in the regular season. Though a loss to Texas is likely, the Sooners, as I see it, should be favored in every other game this season.

Take a look at their schedule below:

September 5 — BYU 
September 12 — Idaho State  
September 19 — Tulsa 
October 3 — at Miami 
October 10 — Baylor 
October 17 — Texas 
October 24 — at Kansas 
October 31 — Kansas State 
November 7 — at Nebraska 
November 14 — Texas A&M 
November 21 — at Texas Tech 
November 28 — Oklahoma State

I just don't see three losses above from an Oklahoma team that returns so much talent.

http://worldonline.media.clients.ellingtoncms.com/img/blogs/entry_img/2009/Jul/20/murray.jpg

OK, so where is your (fake) $10 going*?

* — And, just for fun, let's say you can't pick the over for Kansas, as tempting as it might be.

Comments

Robert Brock 5 years, 4 months ago

NU and OSU could make the Sooners sweat.

Mark Anderson 5 years, 4 months ago

I'd take the over on Baylor - I think they will win at least 6 games.

Eric Sorrentino 5 years, 4 months ago

Great stuff, Jesse. I like Oklahoma and I honestly like Texas as well. With UT at 10.5, you're still given one regular-season loss. Let's say, for fun, it's OU. After that, their toughest game is at Okie State, a team that Texas has beaten 11 straight years. UT's non-conference (Lou. Monroe, Wyoming, UTEP, Central Florida) is cupcake central so there's no way it loses any of those. I've said it before: UT's schedule sets up nicely for an undefeated run. And with 10.5, UT can still lose to OU, run the table and win you fake money.

Jesse Newell 5 years, 4 months ago

george — The Baylor over was one of the last ones considered. If you've listened to our podcasts on this site, both Eric and I like Baylor quite a bit.

But I just got a little timid after examining the Bears' schedule a little closer:

Sept. 5 @ Wake Forest Sept. 19 vs. Connecticut Sept. 26 vs. Northwestern St. Oct. 3 vs. Kent State Oct. 10 @ Oklahoma Oct. 17 @ Iowa St. Oct. 24 vs. Oklahoma St. Oct. 31 vs. Nebraska Nov. 7 @ Mizzou Nov. 14 vs. Texas Nov. 21 @ Texas A&M Nov. 28 vs. Texas Tech (Arlington)

Frankly, I don't like BU's tough non-conference schedule. If the Bears started 0-2 against Wake Forest and UConn (which I could see happening), I'm not sure they could recover to get five wins.

Again I was close to taking the over on the Bears, but just a little scared with the way the schedule sets up.

Eric Sorrentino 5 years, 4 months ago

+1 on Baylor. It'd be a great story if they won more than five. And, of course, the line is set perfectly for the following question: Will Baylor make a bowl or not? One of the most interesting questions in the conference this season, considering BU has never made a bowl in the Big 12 era. I also think the schedule sets up a bit too tough to make me super-confident with that over pick.

MinnesotaJay 5 years, 4 months ago

I'd plunk the whole thing (yes, all $10) down on KU taking the Big 12 title, even though I think the payoff should be a little higher to make it a straight-up wager (maybe, more like 13/2 vs. only 5/1). Nonetheless, I think the Jayhawks have the most upside in relation to the pundits' expectations. Plus, I like to have my bets line up with the way I'm rooting (no emotional/financial hedges for me).

jayhawkboogeyman 5 years, 4 months ago

KU is predicted to win 8 games. I have to take the over on that one. With NU coming to Lawrence this year, I think our only losses are at UT and vs OU, with a tough-but-winnable game at TTU. I am not sure what Tech has coming back, but after losing what the did on offense, I see them sliding back a bit next year. And hopefully our guys are pumped after that horrible embarrassment vs TTU last year to go make a statement win.

Other than that, I have to take over 9.5 wins for OU. I don't see them losing 3 games this year. Hopefully they lose at KU (not likely, but we can dream), and the UT game is a push, but otherwise, where do they pick up a loss?

And I am going with the under 6.5 for CU. Despite the guarantee. They will be doing well to get to 6.

KGphoto 5 years, 4 months ago

What color property could I buy with the $50 I win after the Hawks win the title?

waywardJay 5 years, 4 months ago

you can mkae even more money by risking whatever money you have on Us winning our BCS game in that scenario ( those odds will be heavily tilted toewards us losing ... just like Va Tech ... ) you maybe able to build on boardwalk and park place.....

waywardJay 5 years, 4 months ago

6.5 Wins.... doable.... 10 wins.... Are you Kidding me ? Hawkins must be drinking the same kool aid Mayer did when he suggested SHerron's wight problem would make him los th starting spot......

Where did the good old days when coaches QUIETLY talked about good teams to keep them low profile and thend once they accumulated a record of respect.... then they clamour for attention.... Does only Mangino do that anymore ????

Look it, Hawkins. You have two potential blow outs in Kansas and Colorado at home.... Road games in austin, Morgantown and Stillwater.... Guarantueeing 3 of those wins, before the season starts.....

QUite dicey.... let alone he's making talk that Colorado should be no worse than 6-2 in big 12 play.... which should win them the North....i just don't see it happening...

Tony Bandle 5 years, 4 months ago

Northern Colorado @ KU......Puhleeze....WIN KU @ Texas El Paso.......no one drink the water the day before.......WIN Duke @ KU......Duke as in Puke.......WIN Southern Mississippi @ KU... actually not horrible but no place like home.....WIN Iowa State @ KU.....ISU shouldn't, can't, won't.........WIN KU @ Colorado....make sure Coach M has plenty of oxygen.......WIN Oklahoma @ KU...upset of the decade, just not this decade....LOSS KU @ Texas Tech...make each player watch last year's game....ten times!!......WIN KU @ Kansas State...all KSU needs is QB, offense, defense, coach under 100....WIN Nebraska @ KU....Big Red become Big Dead......WIN KU @ Texas...upset of the century, just not this century.....LOSS Missouri @ KU [well, sort of].....tired tiggers try....WIN BIG 12 Championship, Austin, Tx...it will suck to lose in Texas twice...LOSS BOWL....KU willl make it three in a row.......WIN

BabyJayBate 5 years, 4 months ago

Missouri UNDER 6.5 Texas Tech UNDER 8

Take it to the bank...

Anybody know the odds on KU to win the North title?

Oh and by the way, I think Mr. Hawkins might feel differently after KU comes in and donkey punches them on their home field...

MitchumMan 5 years, 4 months ago

If I was to put money down on one and only one, it's got to be Under on OSU. I just don't see the Cowboys hitting that 9 win mark this year. In fact, I just might have to put some money on it. Thanks KU Sports for making me gamble my money! haha

Rivethead 5 years, 4 months ago

Oakville, the Big XII championship game isn't in Austin, TX.

waywardJay 5 years, 4 months ago

ed.... Did Oklahoma St. Get a defense and I missed it.... because last i saw.... was todd reesing running away from them any which direction and lofting a deep down field pass to dexton fields.....

William James 5 years, 4 months ago

Ya know, I always thought that Hawkins was a real good hire for the Buffs, but I would of never expected this Crawford like prediction of ten wins. Mangino in a million years would never say anything like that. I cant help but wonder if his own son is going to do him in in Boulder. We will see.

waywardJay 5 years, 4 months ago

Just wait fabio.... he'lll say mission accomplished after the third win.

Tony Bandle 5 years, 4 months ago

Rivethead....sorry, different city {Arlington], same state [Texas], same result [LOSS]...............and it still sucks!!

John Randall 5 years, 4 months ago

Kansas (or Neb) over 8 doesn't really tempt me. I think 8 wins is spot-on for both teams. To do better would likely require two wins against South teams.

With h2h in Lawrence, KU will be sacrificial lamb in CCG, so that leaves us needing a bowl win to improve on last year's 8-5. This is barring a mediocre performance by OU/UT winner in CCG game, which is possible since either will probably have an earlier win against us and (just) might come in a little big-headed.

I don't think anybody runs the BigXII table, but Tx over 10.5 and Ok over 9.5 are likely the best bets on the board, imho. I see them both 11-1. Can I split the $10?

Jeff Johnson 5 years, 4 months ago

KSU easily over on the 5.5. Laughing at the predictions of KU winning in Lubbock. Tech is one of those teams that is sooo much better at home than on the road. They just plug and go with their QB's and Potts is the best to come in since Kingsbury. KU loses all three south games and at least one from the OOC and north division grouping.

5 years, 4 months ago

KU 34 TT 31, Lubbock, Oct. 6, 2001

http://www.kusports.com/football/2001foes/vstt.html

MesoCat ~

Welcome to the KU boards. As you can see, the Red Raiders are not unbeatable at home. We went in there with a mediocre (at best) Terry Allen team and won, so it can be done. If you guys win 6+ games this year with your schedule, Snyder should be unanimously voted Big 12 Coach of the Year.

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