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True or false: Tyshawn Taylor is having the worst turnover season of his career

Myth Busters will take a look at a statement, then go deeper into the statistics to try to examine whether that statement is true or false. All statistics courtesy Statsheet.com unless otherwise noted.

Statement: Kansas guard Tyshawn Taylor is having the worst turnover season of his career.

Let's start with the easiest numbers to go over: turnovers per game.

Kansas guard Tyshawn Taylor comes away with a loose ball as he breaks up the court past Baylor guard Pierre Jackson and teammate Justin Wesley during the first half on Monday, Jan. 16, 2012 at Allen Fieldhouse.

Kansas guard Tyshawn Taylor comes away with a loose ball as he breaks up the court past Baylor guard Pierre Jackson and teammate Justin Wesley during the first half on Monday, Jan. 16, 2012 at Allen Fieldhouse. by Nick Krug

This is the statistic most used when fans and analysts look at turnovers, so this would also be the number that most folks would use to evaluate how well Taylor has been taking care of the basketball.

According to StatSheet, Taylor's 4.1 turnovers per game this year are the most in the Big 12 and ninth-most in the nation.

As you can see from the graph above, Taylor also is averaging 1.4 more turnovers per game this year than he did last year.

It seems pretty clear-cut from those numbers that this is, indeed, his worst turnover year.

Or is it that clear?

Sometimes, the problem with statistics is that we don't always pick the best ones for our evaluations — or the ones that give the best information.

For example, the numbers above don't take into account three factors that are important when evaluating Taylor:

• His playing time
• KU's pace
• How involved Taylor is in the offense

Let's take these one at a time.

It's true that Taylor's turnovers per game are up this season, but could that be a product of him playing more minutes?

Here are the percentage of minutes he's played for KU in each of his four seasons:

As we can see, Taylor has significantly increased his minutes from last year. Obviously, the more time he has on the floor, the more chance he has at having additional turnovers.

With this in mind, let's take a look at his turnovers per 40 minutes, which should allow us to take the playing time variable out of the equation.

Taylor's turnovers don't look as bad in this graph as they did in the turnovers per game graph, though it still appears this has been his most turnover-prone year.

Let's look at the other two factors we haven't considered yet: pace and Taylor's involvement in the offense.

Obviously, if KU is squeezing more possessions into Taylor's minutes, then that could affect his numbers this year.

According to KenPom.com, KU is playing at a faster adjusted tempo this year than in years past.

KU having an extra possession per game this year over Taylor's freshman year could have some effect on his turnovers.

The NCAA average for adjusted tempo is 67 possessions, meaning KU has about three more possessions than a typical team. This also will inflate Taylor's turnover numbers if we compare him to players on teams that play at a more standard pace.

We also need to look at how involved Taylor is in the offense if we want to take an accurate look at his turnover numbers.

To do this, we'll take a look at possession percentage, which is also known as usage percentage.

Basically, to see how involved Taylor is in the offense, we need to measure what percentage of KU's possessions he ends, whether it's by making a shot, missing a shot (without KU getting an offensive rebound), giving out an assist or committing a turnover.

The average possession percentage for a player is 20 percent. Here is a look at Taylor's possession percentage in his four years:

After three years of being about an NCAA average offensive contributor, Taylor's usage percentage has skyrocketed this year because of KU's reliance on him to be a playmaker.

This can't be ignored when discussing his turnovers.

All this brings us to a final stat: turnover percentage (also sometimes called turnover rate), which is figured by dividing a player's turnovers by the number of possessions he ends.

According to the Stat geek blog on Statsheet.com: "Turnover percentage ... attempts to equalize turnovers by taking pace and the number of possessions a team (or player) has into consideration."

So, with this stat, we will take into account the fact that Taylor has an extreme amount of involvement in KU's offense.

Here is Taylor's turnover percentage for his four years at KU:

When we take into account that Taylor is more involved in the offense — while taking out pace and playing time bias — we arrive at a conclusion that is much different than national (and local) perception.

Tyshawn Taylor's turnover percentage this year is actually improved from last year.

Just for fun, I wanted to go ahead and compare Taylor's turnover percentage this year to his career turnover percentage. Here it is:

Though Taylor has been repeatedly criticized this year for being more turnover-prone, we can see above that, in fact, the senior's giveaway numbers are exactly in line with his career numbers.

So, let's get back to our first statement.

Kansas guard Tyshawn Taylor is having the worst turnover season of his career.

Verdict: False.

When you take into account all the factors — and not just the raw turnover numbers — Taylor actually is having his second-best season turnover-wise.

Can we all get off his back now?

Comments

Doug Altman 2 years, 11 months ago

Good read, good analysis, good flow. Good gravy.

Adam Evans 2 years, 11 months ago

I can understand HCBS's frustration, but the only reason for all the criticism this year is because TT is sooo much more in the spotlight than before, and that magnifies all his mistakes. ESPN did an analysis earlier this week, and made a statement that I agree with completely. Despite all of his turnover issues, KU is a .500 team at best and probably 5th in the B12 this year without him. Does he allow other teams extra possessions? Sure. But he is one of, and arguably the, fastest guard to the rim in the country, a terrific defender, and has turned into a better leader at the point than we've had in years. Sherron was great, but Tyshawn is a better leader. It's never the TT show in his mind like it was with sherron. We have all the potential to be a final four team this year. But without TT and TRob carrying us on their backs, we won't make the sweet 16.

MinnesotaJay 2 years, 11 months ago

Good thoughts. And, could you maybe even take it another step beyond pace and involvement, and look at turnovers in relation to positive contribution, in other words, look at net contribution, in which case, you'd be looking at bigtime improvement?

Steve Quatrocky 2 years, 11 months ago

Great Point. Lets take Bill's words, "he makes plays that you cant coach and others that look like he's never been coached," combined with Jesse's analysis that says Tyshawn is just Tyshawn. He is consistent. He's going to average 4-5 TO's per game playing this many minutes and being involved in this many possessions. Two of those are average for any point guard, two of those are going to be "never been coached" moments.

However, he's going to make at least two buckets per game that you cant coach by his ability to penetrate the paint so they wash. Whenever you take the ball in amongst the bigs, there is a higher risk of a turnover/block then when you pass or shoot from outside so given that he is becoming a fixture in the paint, at least two of his TO's per game are going to happen every game, without bad passes out of bounds or dribbling off his foot. So really, given the amount of minutes, possessions, and responsibility on Ty this year, if he could just cut one of those careless turnovers a game out of his play, thats all Coach really wants and understands is the entire difference between "Good Ty" and "Bad Ty" and would get his TO to Assist ratio over 1.5, closer to 2. But given the number of possessions he is ending (when he scores), he doesnt get assists for those and thus I dont think a A/TO of 2 is a realistic expectation in his role, on this team, this year.

I like Ty, his biggest problem is that he want to please everybody, wants everybody to be a fan, yet he gets more crap then just about any player I can remember in a KU uniform. He deserves part of it for his off the court infractions but nothing near the amount of criticism/lack of appreciation he actually gets. The armchair coaches need to just shut up and trust Bill. I do! And Ty, like Bill has told him many times, needs to ignore them and let his play do the talking. If he can eliminate just one TO per game, his value/impact to the team will soar even higher.

jayhawker_97 2 years, 11 months ago

here we go again... this is one of those good article bad article.

jayhawker_97 2 years, 11 months ago

i take back my words, sorry - didn't read through the whole article. bottom line is HCBS has been trusting him since then and he still believes TT is da right man for the job. what do i know. HCBS is right all along.

JayHawkFanToo 2 years, 11 months ago

Nice work Jesse! Tyshawn numbers look much better when taken in context.

kusayzone 2 years, 11 months ago

Since there are two sides to every coin, maybe you could shed the light on your perspective as a troll. Show us your stats that state otherwise, we doubt we will see your money.

melrank 2 years, 11 months ago

Jesse has been a supporter of Tyshawn's play all along - that's not a secret - perhaps he did start with an end game in mind.

However, now we have some level of credible statistical analysis to back up Coach Self's claims that we've got the right guy on the court and that he's playing well.

Bottom line, the bashing of the kid for 3 solid years gets old and I'm glad Jesse is setting out to prove his consistent detractors are wrong. Without Tyshawn, we would be singing a WAY different tune about the season so far.

I'm sure all of the responses to this article will be entertaining.

HawksWin 2 years, 11 months ago

And you didn't read this article/stats with the conclusion already in your mind? We see what we want to see - based on our own limited understanding & we won't expand or deepen knowledge if our eyes are closed. Good day.

Ted Toulouse 2 years, 11 months ago

I'd say that all of the statistical analysis boils down to the final graph - the numbers are a wash.

The key with turnovers is how they hurt the team. I could care less if Tyshawn has 15 turnovers throughout the game as long as we are in it at the end and he DOESN'T TURN IT OVER IN CRUNCH TIME.

Earlier this year (see: the Duke game) he was turning it over in crunch time or when we needed him to focus and make plays. Lately he's (admittedly) been more focused and making plays in the big moments instead of turning the ball over.

Again, him losing the ball when we're up by 15 doesn't bother me. It bothers me when we need to score being down by 2 with 30s left and he throws it out of bounds to an assistant coach.

Compare his number to our past 4-year starting point guards and his assist/TO ration sucks eggs. BUT this team needs him, good and bad.

REHawk 2 years, 11 months ago

Hey, I have been an oft-time hairpulling critic of Tyshawn from the getgo. I have also occasionally heaped praise upon him, esp. this season. Of one thing I am totally certain: No way does this team win a league title or advance beyond the Sweet 16 without him. Love him or loathe him, he is a tough competitor, one of the 3 or 4 most exciting and dynamic players in the Big 12, perhaps (in the final analysis) the nation!

REHawk 2 years, 11 months ago

If this squad advances to the national championship game, Nick Krug and Jesse Newell could publish a fantastic photo biography of Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor, surrounded by their supporting cast of players, coaches, trainers, fieldhouse and fans. That might be a top seller even if we don't advance so far. This season bears the potential for being one of the most memorable in the years of Bill Self's ascendancy to the throne of college hoops.

Ted Toulouse 2 years, 11 months ago

Clearly one of Self's best coaching years so far. NOT looking forward to the MU-Baylor-KSU road sequence (I know there's a home game in there too).

But the true test will be how deep he can will them into the tournaments.

Ted Toulouse 2 years, 11 months ago

Clearly one of Self's best coaching years so far. NOT looking forward to the MU-Baylor-KSU road sequence (I know there's a home game in there too).

But the true test will be how deep he can will them into the tournaments.

REHawk 2 years, 11 months ago

In the moment, there appears to be some very special magic underlying the progress of this team, almost epic in its potential to rise toward the pinnacle of collegiate sports fame. If our 3 key bench contributors, and perhaps Naadir and Merv play to the utmost of their potential, and if we can survive the season without serious lasting injury to a starter, the jayhawk Nation is in for a magnificent ride. Already, this team's showing vs. many of the best teams in Div. I ball indicates that the Jayhawks possess the ingredients to shake and bake blue ribbon cuisine. Just imagine. One returning starter and a cast of former bench players, raw recruits and a walk-on possibly advancing to the Final Four.... Bill Self's legacy goes meteoric.

Jack Wilson 2 years, 11 months ago

Hmmm .. me likes the eye test. Based on the eye test, nothing's changed.

Here's a link that show the NCAA assist leaders. TT is 52nd. But in there right hand column is the assist to turnover ratio .. his is 1.29. Among the top 100 assist leaders, he is 99th. One player has a worse ratio of 1.27. And we're only talking the top 100 in assists. That is one true measure of a point guard.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avgAssists/count/81

One thing that does seem clear is that giving EJ more possessions as the point guard is a good thing. It happened last game. The way Tyshawn is shooting the 3, and his ability to penetrate from the wing, playing the 2 half the time at least wouldn't be a bad thing. Gives him some opportunities to take a deep breath here and there.

AsadZ 2 years, 11 months ago

HEM I feel the same way. In Baylor game I noticed that TT was too sped up that caused first few bad TO's. However in 2nd half EJ was handling more PG duty and TT calmed down a lot and was able to do what he is at best, drive and shoot.

Jack Wilson 2 years, 11 months ago

I actually stole that observation from your comment on another page .. should have cited you as the one who made the point.

A number has suggested moving EJ to the point -- ict is one. I was not in that camp, but I agree with you that perhaps a 50-50 split can be good for both EJ and TT.

Sam Constance 2 years, 11 months ago

Ah yes, the "eye" test.

Also known as the "my personal perception of how events are unfolding is much better than a measured, scientific approach to analysis" test.

Paul Wilson 2 years, 11 months ago

How does comparing TT with TT matter?
Bottom line with me... "According to StatSheet, Taylor's 4.1 turnovers per game this year are the most in the Big 12 and ninth-most in the nation."

1 in the Big 12

and if that isn't cause for concern... 9th in the nation.....The Freakin' NATION!!!

Alex Staley 2 years, 11 months ago

Did you not understand the analysis? You aren't getting the full story with stats like 9th in the nation.

Paul Wilson 2 years, 11 months ago

That is not my stat. Read the article. How hard is "ninth most in the nation" to understand. "ninth MOST." And don't forget "the most in the Big 12". I get the analysis. I get the full story. It was a good article. I just don't care about all of the arbitrary information trying to justify his recklessness. Value is not based on comparing a player to himself. Bottom line is that it's to many for a starting, senior, point guard at KU. Do you disagree?

Eric Baker 2 years, 11 months ago

You clearly didn't understand the analysis of the article. You're falling into exactly the same line of thinking that Jesse is trying to dispel by showing that that statistic is incredibly misleading and therefor NOT useful.

Sam Constance 2 years, 11 months ago

He's not saying it's your stat.

He's saying it's a BAD stat to use if you want an accurate picture of whether TT's turnovers are "too much".

You can't say "I get the analysis", then turn around and say "I just don't care about the arbitrary information... to justify his recklessness"

Those two statements are incongruous. If you get the analysis, then you wouldn't frame it as a "justification" and you wouldn't say that the statistical measures are "arbitrary".

And I, for one, do NOT agree. Because a player's value to his team goes so far beyond how he rates in ONE stat line that it's stupid to even suggest it.

The funny thing to me is how the KU faithful have gone from criticizing a player who was virtually mistake-free, but didn't contribute nearly the upside as TT to now criticizing a guy who makes more mistakes, but also makes play after play after play for the team.

The moral of the story is: if KU fans decide they don't like you, it is impossible to change their opinion.

DCHawk 2 years, 11 months ago

Jesse, Great analysis but I think what also frustrates some of us at times is that Taylor has not improved this facet of his game over the past four years. Granted, you have shown that it has not gotten worse but shouldn't a senior be better than a freshman at holding on to the ball. It would be interesting to see how other Jayhawk point guards changed (in regards to this stat) over their four year careers. (i.e. Vaughn, Hinrich, Miles, Robinson, and Collins),

Ted Toulouse 2 years, 11 months ago

+1 Confidence in your players should increase each year, not decline or remain problematic.

I am super thankful we have Tyshawn this year for THIS team. But I'm looking forward to not having to worry about him next year...

kwhawk 2 years, 11 months ago

This is exactly what I was going to type! I would say his maturity level has risen, even if it has been ever so marginally!

However I will be the first to admit....this year's bball team would not be where it is without TT. I think he's having a great year. RCJH!

Jack Wilson 2 years, 11 months ago

The one thing Tyshawn has significantly improved on is his three point shooting. Three point shooting was a major team concern coming in .. it was difficult to see where we'd get the production, other than EJ. This can't be overlooked. He's at appx. 45%. I've pointed out before how Aaron Miles jumped to 50% his senior season after being relatively poor. TT could get to 50%. But if he can just maintain the 45%, that would be terrific.

Jayhawk444 2 years, 11 months ago

I always enjoy Jesse's analyses. Statistics can be a fickle b*tch though. For example, another interpretation of these exact same numbers could be that Tyshawn is one of the most turnover-prone guards in the country and has been this way for three years it's just that we didn't know it until this year because the fact was hidden by his lesser playing time and the team's slower tempo in past years

Also - I agree that playing time and tempo should be considered here, but not necessarily the number of possessions that a player ends. A turnover prevents a guard from getting an assist just as much as it prevents him from getting a shot off.

Bottom line though - I do think we all need to get off Tyshawn's back. The dude is part of our Jayhawk family and he can ball with the best of 'em. And he's going to lead us to whatever greatness this year's team achieves.

NomadHawk 2 years, 11 months ago

I couldn't agree more with your bottom line. The kid has gotten more than his fair share of criticism this year. He's obviously working hard to improve many aspects of his game, most importantly his focus. I think we should show a little appreciation for his efforts, which have finally come to light after two solid performances. Of course there is always room for improvement, but I think he can really build on his recent successes and live up to his potential. His new-found confidence combined with support from the Jayhawk Nation could really push him into elite status!!

Brett Arnberger 2 years, 11 months ago

I don't want people to think I'm bashing Taylor in this post, so all those quick to jump on me just hear me out. I'll have to admit that I've never been a full TT supporter. With all of his off the court antics over the years & his ability to be turnover prone has made it tough to not criticize a guy like that, especially when we've been spoiled with some excellent guards over the years. I can recognize that this team wouldn't be where we are without Taylor this year & feel he has played his best ball the last 2-3 weeks. But what frustrates me with his turnovers is that most of them are just careless. Lazy one handed passes, making a no look cross court pass to the crowd when it's perfectly fine to look to see if a guy is there, etc..... Jesse shed some light on some great statistical data, but what has always bothered me is just the carelessness of some of his TO's. But hey, maybe that's just me...

Mike Barnhart 2 years, 11 months ago

Well put! Tyshawn drove me nuts for three years with out of control charges. He seems to have solved that problem. On the other hand, we simply can't wait three more years for him to stop passing the ball to cheerleaders, Coach Self, Dick Vitale, Baby Jay and Olivia Wilde!

saad007 2 years, 11 months ago

HELP PLEASE: Does anyone know any website that streams KU basketball games? I live overseas and there are no TV channels that stream US sports down here. Last season I used to watch the games online in the "justin.tv/wichitachiefsfan" website, but there are no games on it this year. Thanks in advance! Looking forward to watching our hawks exceed expectations this year;) Rock Chalk Jayhawks!!

Jim Roth 2 years, 11 months ago

Find a buddy who lives in the US whose cable company supports espn3.com. Get him to give you his username and password. Most games are shown there. That's how I've watched almost every game for the past 2 years. The quality is not bad.

VancouverHawk 2 years, 11 months ago

saad007 - I also live outside the country. I don't have access to espn3.com, so I just google "live streaming sports" and then try one of the links - usually FirstRow sports has a link to a KU bball game. Quality isn't great, but it works in a pinch.

http://www.firstrow.tv/

Ben Kane 2 years, 11 months ago

Great read Jesse, keep up the good work.

I think the light has finally switched on for TT. Not that he still won't have turnovers.

he realizes that this is his last year, and for the first time it is his team. While the ball still must go through TRob, this is the first year that he is a primary option. Last year it was give the ball to a twin, and if that failed get the ball to reed or morningstar. the year before was defer to Sherron. Now, it is on him to create when there is nothing else and it has taken this long for him to figure out when to do that.

I much prefer to see him charging into the lane than I did Sherron. TT's first step is quicker, he's more athletic, and much better at creating an altered shot than Sherron who could really only do that layup flick. He has also really improved his 3 point shooting and you can see how much more confident he is with his shot.

Sometimes he gets going so fast that his handles cannot keep up with his mind and body but that is a price I'm willing to pay.

Jeffrey Nichols 2 years, 11 months ago

The fact of the matter is he turns the ball over too often, and that has been true throughout his career. That he is doing it less this year, as Jesse points out, than in year's past, doesn't mean it is acceptable. It just isn't as statistically bad, but our perception of it is magnified by his increased playing time. The problem is that his turnovers are unforced - they are frequently so unnecessary. It is the quality and caliber of his turnovers that are the issue, not just that there are too many. It is the reckless and boneheaded nature of flying into the lane, jumping, and then praying someone will be open. It is the dribbling off his foot or the defender's when he is trying to "break them down" when he just needs to pass the ball. That is why it is so difficult to get on board with TT. Although his issues were still apparent the last few games, he contributed in so many other ways that it was bearable. If he can continue to be more court savvy and show a higher basketball IQ, then we will really have something special. I would love to see it happen!!!

Mike Kendall 2 years, 11 months ago

From the beginning of the season, I, like with a lot of Jayhawk Nation, was concerned about Tyshawn's turnovers. When Jesse's A+ analysis is put before me, I am thinking like Coach Self is thinking. Yeah, his "turnovers can drive coaches nuts, at times," Self said, but "we wouldn't be in the position we're in right now without Tyshawn."

That is why I will not be a TT hater. He is what he is. Chuckberry said it best and it is true---Sometimes he gets going so fast that his handles cannot keep up with his mind and body but that is a price I'm willing to pay."

And HCBS is willing to pay that price, too! Thanks, Jesse---love your analysis.

FoCoCoHawk 2 years, 11 months ago

It's probably a sign of the Apocalypse that I'm quoting Al Davis, but:

"Just WIN, baby!"

Daniel Kennamore 2 years, 11 months ago

Whether or not his turnover rate is better or worse this year is irrelevant. The number is too darn high no matter which year you are looking at.

Looking at KU's stat page on Kenpom, KU ranks 246 in turnovers. There are only 100 teams in all of division I that turnover the ball more than KU this season. Don't matter how you spin it...it is the biggest and most glaring weakness of this year's team.

Luckily the team, and TT specifically, have played well enough in the past few games to overcome such a high turnover rate...but when T-Rob and TT have a poor offensive showing those turnovers lose games.

cshell 2 years, 11 months ago

for saad007 try http://www.firstrow.tv/ its free and works great. rock chalk jayhawk in panama its firstrowsports

jhawkrulz 2 years, 11 months ago

It would be interesting to see, if you could look at the stats when the team is playing the BCS type schools.
Earlier this year we played two games where I think SweeT-T had 0 and 1 Turnover per game. Than we played Kentucky and they skyrocketed.

Although I would agree almost every point guard plays these types of schedules. I want to know how he is doing against the big schools, not the little ones.

I would agree, that stats are created to say whatever you want them to say. I think this article shows you the workflow of how people will take one stat and keep adjusting it until they see what they want.

Robert Brock 2 years, 11 months ago

Turnovers happen. What I am concerned with is Tyshawn's decision-making. He is a fourth-year starter; his leadership in this area is key to our success. He is doing well. Keep it up, Ty!

buckleyhawk 2 years, 11 months ago

Question on the stats...how exactly was that career TO% calculated? Also, it's going to look a little worse if you are comparing this year to his previous 3 years (leaving out this year as the average is naturally going to gravitate towards this year's number).

Is TT as bad as a lot of us make him out to be? Of course not. And sure he's contributing a lot in the scoring department, which we obviously need. But...

He's supposed to be the point guard!!! Now I put a lot of that on the coaching staff (for not going out and getting another quality PG in 2008/09/10). I can barely handle watching our PG a) averaging over 4 TO's a game, or b) having a 5 to 4 A/T ratio. That's abysmal (at least by Jayhawk standards).

What's worse is the manner in which he turns it over. As previously stated, it's either going way too fast (you would figure by now he has learned going fast in a controlled manner), or even worse, trying to do something that 98% of the people watching the game know for a fact can't be done. You can forgive 1 to 2 of those type of deals once in a while, but when it is 2x a game EVERY game, it gets so old...

Unless he is scoring 20+ a game on good shooting (i.e. he hasn't turned into Kobe -- did anyone catch Chuck Barkley's Kobe "translation" on SNL the other night?).

Either way...I'll have to take the enigma that is TT (pretty much because I have to).

Jesse Newell 2 years, 11 months ago

Taylor's career turnover percentage above is from all four years. He has 314 turnovers and 1,243 possessions. Divide the two, and you get his career turnover percentage.

keeb1211 2 years, 11 months ago

Jesse, one other stat that would be nice is what is the average turnover rate for starting PG's? If the average of the top 25 PG's is in the 2-3 TO's per game then realistically that means that TT's awful 4 per game is at most 2 off. I'd like to think that with his speed and defense he gives KU those additional 2 possessions. Either way, great stuff.

buckleyhawk 2 years, 11 months ago

Here is the B12 PG's (I know Walton starts for Baylor, but Jackson gets way more minutes):

Player Yr Team Gms A TO A/T Tyshawn Taylor Sr Kansas 18 94 73 1.29 Pierre Jackson Jr Baylor 18 98 63 1.56 Myck Kabongo Fr Texas 18 104 58 1.79 Chris Allen Sr Iowa State 18 48 40 1.20 Javarez Willis So Texas Tech 17 33 39 0.85 Phil Pressey So Missouri 18 107 38 2.82 Sam Grooms Jr Oklahoma 17 90 36 2.50 Markel Brown So Oklahoma State 18 36 34 1.06 Dash Harris Sr Texas A&M 17 68 32 2.13 Will Spradling So Kansas State 17 50 30 1.67

This is obviously internet-ugly, but Taylor is easily worst in # of TO and 7th in A/T (ahead of Chris Allen, Markel Brown of OSU and Willis of TT). He is 4th in # of Asst.

I would also venture to say that it's fair to compare him to Kabongo, Allen and Jackson, considering they are all "combo"-type guards...

Jesse Newell 2 years, 11 months ago

I mentioned above that in raw turnover per game numbers, Taylor is first in the Big 12 and ninth in the nation.

In turnover percentage (25.4), Taylor is 17th in the Big 12 and 502nd in the nation.

Here's how Taylor compares to the Big 12 point guards in turnover percentage (using Buckley's list above)

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/turnover_pct?conf=big-12&games=1

  1. A.J. Walton 31.35 percent
  2. Pierre Jackson 29.43 percent
  3. Myck Kabongo 27.48 percent
  4. Javier Willis 25.65 percent
  5. Tyshawn Taylor 25.43 percent
  6. Sam Grooms 24.48 percent
  7. Dash Harris 23.35 percent
  8. Markel Brown 20.11 percent
  9. Will Spradling 19.73 percent
  10. Phil Pressey 19.0 percent
  11. Chris Allen 18.77 percent

Tony Bandle 2 years, 11 months ago

The bottom line on a turnover is you lose a chance score but the other team gains a chance to score.

The stat I would like to see is just how many times does our opponent actually score as a result of a TT turnover!! If the opponent doesn't, the turnover becomes the same as a missed shot.

In my mind, his increased scoring this year more than offsets any points gained off of his increased turnovers.

A couple of breakaway dunks on turnovers leave a horrible perception of his ball-handling, but statistically, the actual opponent scoring result may be a wash.

Having just read my post, my conclusion is:

1] Best scenario - No turnovers 2] Next best scenario - If you make a turnover, defend it like hell. 3] Ultimate scenario - Score more points than the other guy!!!!

Jim Roth 2 years, 11 months ago

The mistrust of statistics expressed by several people is a bit disturbing. Statistics don't say just what you want. They say what they say. As long as they are used with transparency, as Jesse has done, they are useful because you can see exactly how they are derived. The problems can come in how they are interpreted.

He has presented Tyshawn's turnover rate in 3 different ways: TO per game, TO per 40 minutes, and TO per possession. He has made a pretty good argument that the 3rd statistic is the most useful for evaluating the hypothesis that Tyshawn's turnover rate is higher this year than the previous 3 years.

Clearly there are other analyses that could be done. But dismissing Jesse's calculations by stating that stats can be made to say whatever you want to say represents gross misunderstanding of data analysis and its importance. You can't judge somebody's gut feeling, but you can critique their data analysis to look for errors or invalid assumptions. Statements made without data to back them up are merely untested hypotheses.

buckleyhawk 2 years, 11 months ago

I wouldn't call it that disturbing. I am guessing there is a certain level of awareness to the fact that decent analysts can make stats tell the story they want them to tell. A lot of people make a decent amount of money doing just that.

The more I think about this (which at this point is WAAAY too much), the more my problem is

a) it should be better than the rest of of his career (in fact, one would hope to see a negative slope)...why is no one pointing this out? b) why even bother comparing it to the rest of his career? we need to be comparing it to the conference/nation, since he's going to be playing against them and not against his former Point Plank'n-self c) why is anyone making excuses or trying to pretty his TO stats? everyone in the country who pays attention knows he turns the ball over A LOT. We get it. What people are just now realizing is that the other things he is doing may actually indeed outweigh those painful TO's.

jhawkrulz 2 years, 11 months ago

With statistics you can stop at any point or keep cutting up until you see what you want to see.

If Jesse had stopped after 2, his conclusion would have been that TT is having the worst TO of his career, but he kept cutting the numbers to get to the third case, which shows the conclusion is false.

However, could he have kept slicing and dicing, the answer is clearly yes, as many on the site have noted, that you could have done a comparison to the nation, conference, high quality opponents verse conference, verse etc.

The problem with statistics isn't that they present bad data, the problem with statistics is when do you stop analyzing. You could probably pull out 2-3 more statistics with 2-3 more ways to slice the information and you would come up with True and Falses to this same question.

Phoggie_Thinking 2 years, 11 months ago

Interesting article, but final statement is inaccurate. You did not prove the "myth" false. You only showed that it was not overwhelming true. He is a FOUR YEAR STARTER.

In this day of early exits that FOUR YEAR thing is proof alone that he is not among the elite guards.

His last couple of games are positive.

James McGuire 2 years, 11 months ago

The opposing teams can also make a huge difference in TT's turnover ratio. Looking at TT's turnovers in the context of the defensive efficiency of our opponents this year versus previous years would also give an indication of where he stands.

Ben Kane 2 years, 11 months ago

also true when comparing him to other guards who have not had as tough of a schedule.

Sam Constance 2 years, 11 months ago

TT's turnover rate is the same as his previous three years AVERAGED TOGETHER.

If you look at them individually, his TO rate has improved. The only year prior to this one in which he was better was 2009-10, his sophomore year. And the funny thing is that that year was SO much better that it made the average of his first three years appear to be on par with this year, even though he is better than his freshman year, and a significant amount better than his Junior year.

SCHNBALL 2 years, 11 months ago

Run the same scenario for RussRob and compare the 2.

Travis Clementsmith 2 years, 11 months ago

I love all the comments that go along the lines "but, he's supposed to be the point guard!" I have to wonder if they really pay attention to what Bill Self prefers in his system. I mean, its been said over and over but I don't know if it really sinks in with some people:

Self prefers combo guards. Not true point guards or shooting guards. He wants a guard that understands that on every possession understands the ball must go to the post at least once and preferably early in the possession. He likes guys who are able to go get their own play once the offense breaks down.

So, those of you pining for a "traditional point guard" are off base. Yes, there will probably be a guard that brings the ball up most of the time in his system. But, labeling this player a "traditional point guard" is what leads to a lot of frustration. Sure, sometimes we will have a guard that has a lower turnover percentage. But, I bet if you asked Self, he would prefer three guards between 6'3" and 6'7" who can pass well and go get their own shot before he'll say someone who thinks "pass first, take care of the ball".

buckleyhawk 2 years, 11 months ago

I am not pining for a traditional PG. Give me Mario any day (or RussRob or even a Monday-night TT). What I am pining for is the "combo" guard who doesn't make ridiculous passes. As I stated, I can take a too-fast-to-the-rack TO a game; what I can't take is all of the ridiculous I-am-not-thinking-at-all pass to the other team that does happen every single game. I mean...how many perimeter passes have ended up in the 3rd row or 10 feet to the left or right of the intended recipient?

That said, go look up historical TO stats for KU.

And here is where I must admit being wrong (after looking up historical KU stats). While TT is still far and away the worst TO/G offender of the Bill Self era, he stacks up a little bit better using TO%.

Year G TO % 2005 Miles 28.79 2011 Taylor 26.86 2008 Robinson 26.42 2006 Chalmers 25.98 2009 Taylor 25.85 2012 Taylor 25.43 2004 Miles 23.99 2007 Chalmers 23.12 2007 Robinson 22.49 2010 Taylor 22.42 2012 Johnson 21.34 2006 Robinson 21.27 2009 Collins 19.29 2008 Chalmers 19.01 2010 Collins 17.67

Travis Clementsmith 2 years, 11 months ago

Every player is going to have their wart, and when it is turnovers, it just sticks out bigger. When its something like "suspect outside shot", nobody cares until March when one of your top players can't be trusted to hit a big shot.

The main problem for TT this year is the Duke game. Fans won't let it go. So any time he makes a "boneheaded" turnover, everyone flashes back to the Duke game and cries way too much about it. TT makes many more plays that give us opportunities to win than he takes away possessions.

If we had won the Duke game, TT wouldn't take near the flack he does now.

buckleyhawk 2 years, 11 months ago

We'll agree to disagree on that Duke game. I pretty much forgot about how he played in it until you mentioned it. For me it's the quantity and consistency of the "boneheaded" turnover.

And back to your traditional PG comment, I will also admit that it drives me crazy that he almost NEVER looks to dish on 2 on 1 situations. But, as my buddy pointed out, that's probably a good thing, as he's much better taking it to the rack than passing!

Travis Clementsmith 2 years, 11 months ago

What I mean about the Duke game is that the turnovers were largely blamed for why we lost. So, everytime he turns it over like that, especially when the game is close, its that fear that creeps back into everyone's mind. If we had won that game, that fear isn't as prevelant.

Tony Bandle 2 years, 11 months ago

Interesting;

There is a subtlety with the turnover that basketball does not catch but baseball does.

When there is errant pitch, it can be assigned as a wild pitch [the pitchers fault] or a passed ball [the catcher's fault].

That differentiation is far more blurred if not applied at all in basketball. If the initiator of the play makes a perfect pass, lob, etc. and the receiving teammate botches it, the turnover still goes to the passer in most cases.

Obviously, violations such as a steal, steps, a walk, double dribble, etc. as an individual act is recorded without question, but it's the two part action that comes into question.

keeb1211 2 years, 11 months ago

I agree. It's the same thing when a WR runs the wrong route and the QB put is where he is supposed to be and it winds up in the DEF hands. The INT goes on the QB. There have been a few instances Ty has made a pass to the corner where EJ, Conner or Travis is supposed to be and they're not. Those passes look awful but are not entirely on Ty.

Steve Gantz 2 years, 11 months ago

90% of statistics are half wrong 75% of the time.

Nick Cole 2 years, 11 months ago

Jesse, can you do an analysis on this:

What percentage of TT's turnovers are due to unforced errors vs. the other team playing good D? Compare this season to seasons past and his overall career. I'm willing to bet he makes unforced TO's at a higher rate this season than ever before. This is the reason so many KU fans have been so frustrated with TT this season. You senior PG should not throw the ball off his own foot at least once per game. Just isn't supposed to happen, especially at KU where the standards are so freaking high.

How about this, compare TT to EJ when each runs the point. I think we can cut down on TT's turnovers by running EJ at the point more often. EJ doesn't pass it to the fans and bounce it off his foot every single game. Just saying.

I love Tyshawn, and we would not be as good w/o him. Any team in America is a better team when they turn it over less, no matter how you spin it. You can add in extra stats to make your point all you want, but bottom line is he still turns it over too much. A Sr. PG on a top 5 team should average less than 2 turnovers per game, bottom line. Run this same statistical analysis and you will likely find that PG's on other teams are still better at taking care of the ball.

I don't know why people love to make so many excuses for TT. Stuff like this gives the kid no incentive to improve. He could read this and be like "See, I'm doin' just fine guys."

VancouverHawk 2 years, 11 months ago

Jesse-

An interesting analysis, as usual. One thing I'd like to ask you about is possession percentage. You say that it's determined by what percentage of KU's possessions a player ends, "whether it's by making a shot, missing a shot (without KU getting an offensive rebound) or committing a turnover."

That makes me wonder - if a player makes a pass that leads to an assist, instead of a turnover, that players possession percentage will be lower, because making an assist (apparently) doesn't count in one's possession percentage. But that suggests that for a player such as Taylor, he'd actually have a lower possession percentage if more of his turnovers were assists instead, in spite of the fact that he's still be "relied on" exactly the same amount.

So while I think the statistics obviously show that KU is relying on TT more this year, I think that possession percentage is a bit misleading as a measure of this, because it doesn't seem to account for assists (is that right?). Obviously, the "turnover percentage" is a more useful indicator, and there, as many point out, he's been pretty consistent from year to year.

Jesse Newell 2 years, 11 months ago

Vancouver — You make a great point. Assists are, in fact, taken into account when calculating an individual's possession percentage. I have updated the info above to reflect this.

John Randall 2 years, 11 months ago

However, assists are another example of a two-man collaboration. No credit is given for a great set-up unless the opportunity is converted. That fails to happen often enough for me to sympathize with TT's penchant for going to the hoop himself instead of counting on the questionable reliability of someone else finishing the play. Somewhere there is a balance between the extremes of RussRob and Sherron, and it does seem Taylor is coming closer as the year progresses.

Like others on these boards, the unexplainable turnovers are hard on my stomach, but I'll just have to toughen up and stick around while TT makes it up to us with plays no one else can make for us.

Nathan Scholl 2 years, 11 months ago

The funniest thing to me about all the Tyshawn haters is the fact that most likely, none of them can play a lick of basketball themselves. You're all probably the type of people that watch the games on TV and act like it's "SO EASY" to play highly competitive collegiate basketball at the best program in the country. Play Tyshawn one on one. Please. You wouldn't score a point. Keep up the good work Tyshawn, you fast, fast guy you. Keep shutting up the haters.

John Randall 2 years, 11 months ago

I wonder how many reporters and commentators have as much "game" as the players they report and comment on?

Also, I wonder why so many ex-jocks are so much worse than than guys who study and analyze the game and the players in it.

Makes you think only small arms specialists should be allowed to have opinions on gun control . . .

Kye Clark 2 years, 11 months ago

"Can we all get off his back now?"

The answer is no. And before I explain, let me first say he has been playing better, we are a better team with him on it, I like him attacking, we don't win the ISU game and probably the Baylor game without him going off, no I never played basketball at a high level, and no I don't know more than HCBS. I'm a Tyshawn fan, so don't lump me in with the "haters", those of the ilk that are "happy to see players go" whenever they graduate, jump to the NBA, exhaust their eligibility, etc.

Now again to the question "can we all get off his back now?" While I appreciate the premise of this article and the illustration of how it might not be as bad as we think, it's the wrong premise if you're wanting people to get off his back. I don't care if his turnovers aren't as bad as the simple turnovers stats would indicate. Is he having the worst turnover season of his career? I don't care. All I care about is that his turnovers are too many. And they are. 4.1 is too many on average. Coach Self would tell you that. Now I can handle 4 turnovers in a game that is fast-paced and he is having a great game. For example, 4 in the Baylor game would be OK.

Here's another thing that is troublesome - his turnovers increase, generally, against better competition. I don't care so much about him having only one turnover against Howard. But consider these numbers: vs Baylor - 5 turnovers (and HEM has actually pointed out it should be 6, that for some inexplicable reason Withey was credited with a turnover that clearly should have been on Tyshawn), vs KSU - 8 turnovers, vs Davidson - 5 turnovers, vs Ohio State - 7 turnovers, vs Duke - 11 turnovers. Too many. And again, Coach Self would agree. Now there are two aberration games, against UK & Georgetown.

The last thing that bothers me is this statement: "the senior's giveaway numbers are exactly in line with his career numbers." The senior. I would have liked to see some improvement on those career numbers, being a 4 year starter.

I'm not posting this as a Tyshawn-bashing comment. I just disagree with the premise as an argument that he shouldn't be criticized for what are clearly too many turnovers, regardless of how the career numbers are juggled.

hawk_of_ages 2 years, 11 months ago

I think this is a very fair point. But I would say one further thing in defense of TT that Jesse doesn't cover here: He is offsetting his turnovers with greater production this season than before.

It seems strange to me that turnovers are always paired with assists but not points -- I guess because traditionally, PGs aren't supposed to be scoring machines. In TT's case, the assist-to-TO ratio just isn't good. And that's a very legit criticism -- but if you factor in not only 5 assists per game but also 16 points per game, it starts to look a little better.

Kye Clark 2 years, 11 months ago

That is an interesting way of looking at it. I do in fact look at the assist-to-turnover ration as a guide. Not because I think PGs aren't supposed to score, but because I believe they are supposed to quarterback the offense. They are supposed to create for others. They are supposed to make others better. My main criticism of Tyshawn isn't his turnovers, but rather that he doesn't do these other things with the regularity that I think a PG should. When he drives, it is so very rarely with the intent to drive & dish. He could have Kendall Marshall-like assist totals if he wanted. He is the best guard I've seen this year at getting into the paint, and that opens up passing lanes. If he would pass on occasion, I think it would benefit his scoring too, as after seeing him pass once in awhile teams would be slower coming to him with help defense. But he doesn't, and fortunately most of his guarded shots have been falling lately, or he's been drawing foul calls with more frequency, than was the case for most of the season. And this is why I have argued for TT to be moved to the 2 guard. We have seen this some lately, with EJ being given some of the PG ball handling duties. Tyshawn can do everything he is good at while EJ initiates the offense. If he gets it on the wing or up top during our weave, he can still drive the paint, or find himself open for a shot from the perimeter.

Tyshawn, almost without exception, is a net-positive for this team. Even with inflated TO numbers. And your "defense" of him is valid, factoring in points shows he is even more of a net positive. All that being said, he could clean up his play a little bit and reduce the turnovers, which everybody should want. He's said it himself that the mistakes are correctable. Next step is to actually correct them.

John Randall 2 years, 11 months ago

Like most everyone else here, you are ignoring the fact that Coach Self's offense is not a point guard driven scheme. Ideally, the three on the perimeter will all handle the ball about the same number of times, and any of them can initiate the inside-out sequence the coach is calling for.

To critique "point guard" performance on a team with no point guard, per se, is the definition of non-sequitur.

Kye Clark 2 years, 11 months ago

While it may not be a point guard driven scheme, there are point guard duties. If there weren't, Tyshawn wouldn't be bringing the ball up the floor 90% of the time to initiate the offense. That is of course, until the last couple of games in which EJ has started taking over more of those responsibilities. If there wasn't a point guard position, any player could be at the top of the key last possession of the half when coach Self calls "flat" and the player runs an iso play.

But fine. You say they're just guards, I can make the argument just as well for any guard. EJ drives and looks to pass. Because passing is more times than not the better option on a drive. Tyshawn doesn't. So ideally I'd like my generic perimeter player to be looking to create the best possible offense for the team off the drive, be it a pass or their own shot.

Kye Clark 2 years, 11 months ago

One last thing, since he's not a point guard, go tell all those people on the other thread complaining that he got snubbed for the Cousy award finalist that it's not the case. That he can't be up for that award because he's not a point guard

KGphoto 2 years, 11 months ago

I think it's more the horribleness of the TOs than the total number.

The ones that make me grab my hair, spin around and walk out of the room red-faced and bug-eyed. The ones that make me squeal some awful noise and return to the room speaking in tongues and looking crazy like Nicholson in The Shining. My wife usually finds something else to do after those. Something on the other side of the house.

Can you graph those turnovers?

buckleyhawk 2 years, 11 months ago

Exactly my point (except better stated).

Kit Duncan 2 years, 11 months ago

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog//id/41766/tyshawn-taylor http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog//id/51383/kendall-marshall

Kendall Marshall is # 2 on the list and, as UNC's point guard, the closest to Tyshawn in caliber of team and schedule as a player at the top of the list.

Tyshawn averages 5.2 assists per game and 16.2 ppg. Kendall Marshall averages 9.6 apg and 5.8 ppg.

I'll give two points per assist as the stat for whether it was a 3 or a 2 is difficult if not impossible to find.

KM 9.6 apg = 19.2 + 5.8 ppg = 25 combined ppg. TT 5.2 apg = 10.4 + 16.2 ppg = 26.6 combined ppg.

Going further, KM's turnover average is 2.8, TT's 4.1 If the opposing team scored on every TO the difference would be 2.6 ppg in favor of KM. With TT's + 1.6 combined ppg it is a difference of 1 ppg in favor of KM.

Going ONE step further... take away the three highest turnover games for both players, KM averages 2.26 turnovers per game while TT drops to 3.1 turnovers per game. Now, KM's 2.26 x 2 = 4.52 ppg to the opposing team while TT's 3.1 x 2 = 6.2 ppg to the opposing team. The difference? 1.68 more points possible by TT's turnovers. BUT, his combined ppg being 1.6 higher means it's a virtual tie between number two in the country and number 52 in the country.

My point here is, you can take any statistics and make them say what you want them to say given enough information.

Tyshawn is an outstanding player and, except for the three games where his turnovers were abnormally high, (KU won 2 and nearly won the third) his turnovers per game would be pretty much in line with the best in the country.

He is OUR point guard and all Jayhawk Nation needs to start rallying around him instead of badmouthing him! As Tyshawn goes, so go the fortunes of this year's team.

RCJH Go KU!

Sam Constance 2 years, 11 months ago

Very well stated. Love this post.

The final comment about him being OUR point guard is, I think, the most spot-on part.

Kit Duncan 2 years, 11 months ago

Thanks, I like your analysis in the next post also, particularly the "unpredictable" play that Tyshawn brings against defenders.

Sam Constance 2 years, 11 months ago

The summarized content of too many posts on this forum:

"I don't care about them fancy number things. I want to maintain my outrage over TT's turnover problems!"

Nevermind the fact that he has the second best TO rate of his entire time here at KU, behind only his Sophomore year.

As tundrahok pointed out, there are a number of people touting the antiquated idea that Jesse is just manipulating the numbers to tell the story he "wants" to tell, when an intelligent person reading the above article should understand that the three successive analyses get MORE ACCURATE, with respect to how TO's occur within an actual game.

This is not a matter of someone only sharing part of the facts to frame a predetermined point. This is a matter of someone using the most robust and descriptive stats available to see whether a commonly-held perception is ACTUALLY true. If the numbers had shown the perception to be true, then you can bet your last dollar that Jesse's conclusion would have been different.

Really, this forum is no different than almost every single other forum on KUsports.com over the last 3-4 years. There is an entirely too large contingent of KU fans who are overly-critical of Tyshawn Taylor and no amount of data or proof could possibly change their minds. When presented with that exact data, rather than read and digest the information for what it is, they start coming up with all sorts of wild rationalizations for how the numbers can't possibly say what they say. I'm not going to get into the semantics of who is a Tyshawn "hater" and who is an "apologist", because I have a feeling that the number of actual "haters" is in the 1st percentile of KU fans. My issue is with the overly-critical focus on Taylor, even from fans who aren't "haters".

(to be continued...)

Sam Constance 2 years, 11 months ago

(...continued)

I would agree that in the "traditional" method of evaluating basketball, 4 TOs per game is "too many". But there are a couple problems with that kind of analysis

1) Jesse has clearly demonstrated that absolute TO numbers are worthless. Without understanding how many TOs he's generating within the context of how much he's touching the ball and being asked to make plays, they are meaningless. Unless people believe that a player who turns the ball over twice per game (only touching the ball four times all game) is "better" than a player who turns the ball over four times per game, but is touching the ball 16-20 times per game. Looking at TT's TO%, it's clear that he is no steel trap with the ball, but his ratio is decent enough to make the laser focus on his TOs from KU fans to be completely ridiculous.

2) It ignores the interconnectivity of the game of basketball. When stats consisted of the things that could be easily cumulatively counted (points, rebounds, assists, turnovers), TOs per game and A/T ratio were the best we could do. But now we have things like TO% and other advanced metrics that are better because they are more illustrative of what's actually occurring than a simple TO tally. We don't need to sit here and argue over whether TT "needs" to cut down on his TOs because you can look at the entire package with things like player efficiency (EFF = pts + reb + ast + blk + stl - missed fg - missed ft - to), which is an "official" NBA stat, that take into account the player's ENTIRE skill set, rather than the stat that makes fans pull out their hair and channel Jack Nicholson from The Shining. Tyshawn, so far this year, has posted an average per game EFF rating of 12.2. To give some perspective on how that rates with prior KU guards (the EFF statistic favors big men slightly, hence comparing him only to other guards), here are the three best single season EFF ratings in the last 20 years of KU basketball:

Kirk Hinrich - 18.8 (Junior season) Mario Chalmers - 16.5 (Junior season) Sherron Collins - 14.8 (Junior season)

Now don't get me wrong, I'm not saying TT is having one of the best guard seasons in KU history, and the numbers clearly display that he isn't. But they also show that he isn't that far off, and I would argue that the level of criticism he receives is no where close to proportionate with his actual shortcomings.

(to be concluded...)

Sam Constance 2 years, 11 months ago

(...conclusion)

Worth noting: all three of those seasons were Junior years. So except for Chalmers, who left after that year, it's obvious that Hinrich and Collins didn't "improve" every year at school, dispelling one of the other comments that I read several times about TT being worthy of criticism because he was a SENIOR!

But I digress...

The reason I go into this diatribe about evaluating a player's entire skill set, rather than parsing out individual metrics is because of how I see TT's game. Part of TT's advantage over his defenders isn't just about his speed/quickness. He's really fast, but more than that, he's unpredictable. A defender can't settle into a specific way of playing TT because, like an improvising jazz musician, he is composing on the fly. Everyone assumes that TOs are mutually exclusive of everything else and that TT can just turn off the TOs while maintaining the positives of his game. I think that's an incredibly reductionist way to view the "playmaker" position.

Krohnutz 2 years, 11 months ago

"I am literally "content" to sit back and see what Tyshawn & this team do next...game after game."

Yeah man, I achieved zen on this team weeks ago.

Taylor is fast, real fast. TRob is strong, real strong.

Right now college basketball is so thinned on the amount of talented, experienced teams, there is absolutely no telling what this team could accomplish just having those two guys at the forefront.

But I'll say this, I think this has been potentially Coach's best year.

Was Davidson their turning point?

Kye Clark 2 years, 11 months ago

Good post. I will readily admit that I am critical of Tyshawn. As I've stated elsewhere on this thread, it is mostly because (as Ralster states in his response here) that I prefer a pass-first point guard. Now on this team we NEED his points. I get that, and am more than pleased with his scoring output. What bothers me is that he seems to have his mind made up long before the play develops as to whether he is going to shoot or not. Most often he drives with absolutely no intention of passing the ball. Sometimes his shot goes in, especially in the past couple of games, but that's not the point. The point is that I think a higher percentage of shots for the team would go in if he was finding the open man more often. To give an NBA comparison, he is a little too much Russel Westbrook, and not enough Steve Nash. The comparison is especially apt because I know OKC Thunder fans have similar debates about their star PG.

I will also admit to being one of the posters that thinks he should have improved as a senior. The thing I disagree with your defense of it not being a valid criticism is that you changed the metric of the original statement. Jesse was using turnover percentage, and it showed that Taylor is turning it over at the same clip that he has done his whole career. Then you post numbers using player efficiency. But you said yourself that player efficiency gives us a better look at the entire package, and that's not really what we're talking about is it? Yes those 3 players had tremendous junior seasons - as an entire package, in 2 cases obviously better than the entire-package results of their senior seasons. But what were their turnover percentages? Did their turnover percentages get better during their career? If we compared Hinrich & Collin's turnover percentage their senior years against that of their whole careers, would it show improvement? I don't know, and I honestly don't care enough to look them up, because (at least in my case) I wasn't stating that he wasn't a better player as a senior than he was as a junior, sophomore, or freshman, just that he has shown little to no improvement on his ability to take care of the ball, which is bore out by Jesse's stat.

And to your last point that "Everyone assumes that TOs are mutually exclusive of everything else and that TT can just turn off the TOs while maintaining the positives of his game." No, but how many are just careless? It is easier for fans to live with the mistakes of commission rather than the mistakes of omission (I believe Fran Frischilla is the one who talks about the difference during his broadcasts). The getting the pocket picked at the top of the key. Dribbling off his leg. The lazy one-armed passes. Etc. This is where I think letting EJ bring the ball up and initiate the offense immediately takes 1-2 turnovers/game off the board. And if it doesn't hurt Tyshawn's ability to score, what's the harm?

Sam Constance 2 years, 11 months ago

Only one disagreement, really, with your post. And maybe "disagreement" isn't the right word.

Yes, I did change metrics, sort of. Before I mentioned (or maybe it was after) the EFF statistic, I did note that while this year's TO% is about the same as the aggregate of the previous three years, if you look at each year individually, this is his second-best:

1st: soph 2nd: senior 3rd: fresh 4th: junior

He is better (to a degree) as a senior in terms of turning the ball over than he was as a freshmen, although that raises a whole host of other questions, seeing as how his trend is a zig-zag, rather than steady improvement or decline.

It sounds like we agree that he has improved as an overall player in his four years, but you are correct in noting that said improvement has not necessarily been demonstrated in the ballhandling area.

I do appreciate your final point about having EJ bring up the ball, or doing other things in general to reduce the amount of time TT has the ball in his hands. I especially like the idea of doing it in a way that still capitalizes on the ability Taylor has in the halfcourt, while relieving some of the pressure of having a really high usage rate.

jaycon11 2 years, 11 months ago

baseball number-crunchers have developed a metric for determining performance in "clutch" situations (see fangraphs.com). unfortunately, i don't think basketball is so easily catagorized. having said that, i wonder if the perception of tyshawn's growing turnover problem is more a case of turnovers happening at times that kill momentum or a rally and stand out more in folks' minds than a turnover would when the team is up by 20 pts.

Kit Duncan 2 years, 11 months ago

Thank you! I was flabbergasted when I saw the undercut that caused Ty's turnover and went uncalled. Tyshawn often shows his embarrassment when he makes a mistake, but that time he turned to the ref with arms upraised in disbelief that it wasn't called. I agreed completely.

Krohnutz 2 years, 11 months ago

Right now this team is playing better than Duke. Actually, I would say no team in the top ten has improved more from game 1 to now moreso than KU. Some have even taken a few steps back.

But what do we do with Kentucky and all their World Wide Wes storebought team? Are they improving or just not playing tough road games? They are one shot from being undefeated, but look at their other road games, they are a joke. Where is the concensus on UK right now?

djhawk75 2 years, 11 months ago

So Taylor is just as turnover prone in his Senior season as he has been throughout the rest of his college career. I still see that as a problem. A big problem.

On the other hand, his performances against Iowa St. and Baylor were undeniably brilliant. I've noticed that Taylor is much more crafty when he drives toward the basket. Sometimes the officials don't give him the proper credit for his creativity in the paint, and they will call a charge against Taylor when the defender actually slid into him. I saw one such call in the first half against Baylor that was so bad it hurt to watch the replay. Overall Taylor is a very good player, and I'm now excited to see how far he can lead this team.

Krohnutz 2 years, 11 months ago

Jesse you should be ashamed for those statistics. I understand you want to support Super T. To be honest, I have accepted what he is, and have come around. But the stats...

Seriously, you just proved that his turnover ratio has, if anything, remained high through all but one year of his college career. You most likely tried to put the fire out with 100LL airplane fuel. Not good.

-For the Critics:

The critics point out that Taylor turns the ball over compared to OTHER players. I don't see itchawk on here saying, "He used to be awesome, now he turns it over." He consistently says that his turnovers are too high as compared to assists for a point guard. At ninth in the nation, and a 5.2/4.1 ratio, he has a valid argument. You proved to us lemons were bitter, unfortunately we wanted to know if oranges were sweet.

To the Super T. supporters and naysayers, can we please stop trying to act like he doesn't turn the ball over a ridiculous amount of times? I've come to terms with it, he is not Aaron Miles, both GOOD and BAD.

He is great off the dribble, he is stellar at getting to the line. I would be curious to know how many point guards average more free throw attempts per game than Super T (if any). Find THAT stat. He gets to the line better than most big men. I respect that.

-For the Supporters:

Here is what Taylor has done this year to improve himself: 1. He has improved his 3pt. shot tremendously, in both performance and selection. 2. I think most of us would agree he takes a smarter look at a ranged shot, and instead drives it to the hoop. 3. His free throw percent has slightly dropped, but he is on pace to shoot more free throws by next game than any ENTIRE previous season. 4. I think he and Self have as good a relationship right now as ever. 5. I think he actually could be considered a "leader" on this team right now by his teammates, not himself.

-To Jessie:

Seriously, stop trying to sell me a '67 convertible Chevelle when it is clearly a '94 Metro.

jaybate 2 years, 11 months ago

Jesse,

Now do you see why I was encouraging you to use graphs? :-)

jaybate 2 years, 11 months ago

More graphs equal more audience participation. I've learned this over the years in presentations.

In your case, more graphs equal more clicks.

More clicks equals more boss-happinenss.

More boss happiness equals more raises.

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