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Posted
by Jesse Newell
December 18, 2009 at 2:12 p.m.
Which team has the best shot at going undefeated? KenPom says it's not KU
Forty and 0.
It seems like everywhere you turn, you hear someone bringing up the possibility of the Kansas men’s basketball team running the table this season, whether it’s the first reader comment under a story or a fan blog or Xavier Henry after his first game.
But, truthfully, what are KU’s realistic chances of completing a perfect season? And, even before that, what are the Jayhawks’ chances of going 31-0 — which would be a perfect run through the regular season?
For help with that question, I sought help from an unbiased source: KenPom.com.
If you don’t know already, the site is a stat-nerd’s delight, giving all of Ken Pomeroy’s advanced statistics and his statistical projections (based on each team’s statistics) for the rest of the NCAA basketball season.
Turns out, according to Ken Pom, there is one team in the NCAA that has a better than 25-percent chance of completing an undefeated regular season ... but it’s not Kansas.
Below are the undefeated teams left, followed by KenPom’s projection of the likelihood of that team completing an undefeated regular season*.
Following each team’s projections, I’ll give some analysis of that team’s chances of staying unbeaten through the regular season.
* — KenPom's stats and projections are updated every day, so these numbers might be different if you are viewing this blog after Friday, Dec. 18.
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1. Texas 25.88%
Current Record — 9-0
Projected record — 30-1
Three toughest games — Feb. 8 vs. Kansas (76-percent chance of winning game); Jan. 18 at Kansas State (82 percent); Feb. 17 at Missouri (82 percent).
Analysis — Ken Pom loves him some Texas. Because of the Longhorns’ phenomenal defense so far (UT leads the nation in two-point percentage defense at 35.6 percent and is second in three-point percentage defense at 22.0 percent), the Longhorns’ defensive efficiency numbers are off the charts. The undefeated percentage still seems a bit optimistic. Ken Pom gives the Longhorns a 97-percent chance of beating North Carolina on Saturday at the Jerry Dome in Arlington, Texas, then a 95-percent chance of beating Michigan State the following Tuesday at home. The Longhorns might be good, but I can’t say they’re that good just yet.
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2. Kansas 2.90%
Current Record — 9-0
Projected record — 28-3
Three toughest games — Feb 8 at Texas (24 percent); Jan. 10 at Tennessee (68 percent); March 6 at Missouri (73 percent).
Analysis — KU’s non-conference schedule the rest of the way should be challenging, as Cal is ranked No. 10 in the KenPom rankings, and road trips to Temple (31st in KenPom) and Tennessee (11th in KenPom) won’t be easy, either. At this point, the Big 12 North (even though there is technically no Big 12 North in basketball) looks to be better than the South, which means KU must play Missouri (14th in KenPom) and Kansas State (17th in KenPom) twice, while UT only has to face those teams once. That’s part of the reason UT’s chance of an undefeated record might be so much higher than KU’s.
3. Syracuse 2.47%
Current Record — 10-0
Projected Record — 28-3
Three Toughest Games — Jan. 16 at West Virginia (32 percent); Feb. 18 at Georgetown (59 percent); Jan. 6 vs. Memphis (74 percent).
Analysis — One weird note to start off about Syracuse: It’s actually made a higher percentage of its two-point shots (62.4 percent) than free throws (62.1 percent) this year. Crazy.
Anyways, SU has been balanced so far, ranking in the top 10 of the Ken Pom’s adjusted efficiency ratings in both offense and defense. The Orange has a difficult conference slate, though, and add in a non-conference game against Memphis, and it’s unlikely that we’ll see it make a push for an undefeated regular season. If it did happen, you can bet Le Moyne would be the proudest Division-II school in the country.
4. West Virginia 1.98%
Current Record — 7-0
Projected Record — 27-3
Three Toughest Games — Jan. 1 at Purdue (44 percent); Feb. 22 at UConn (73 percent); Jan. 23 vs. Ohio State (76 percent).
Analysis — Ken Pom loves Huggy Bear’s defense (fourth nationally in adjusted efficiency) but hates his team’s remaining schedule (three teams left ranked in KenPom’s top 10). The New Year’s Day game at Purdue should be a great test for the Mountaineers.
5. New Mexico 1.95%
Current Record — 11-0
Projected Record — 28-3
Three Toughest Games — Feb. 27 at BYU (42 percent); Jan. 5 at San Diego State (50 percent); Jan. 27 vs. BYU (72 percent).
Analysis — New Mexico has just four games left against top-50 KenPom teams (two vs. BYU, two vs. San Diego State), so an undefeated run isn’t out of the question. If it’s going to happen, though, the Lobos will have to be better defensively. New Mexico ranks 74th on the defensive efficiency ratings, and opposing teams are making 48.9 percent of their twos against the Lobos, which is better than the NCAA average (47.6 percent).
6. Missouri State 0.93%
Current Record — 9-0
Projected Record — 25-4
Three Toughest Games — Feb. 14 at Wichita State (43 percent); Jan. 3 at Northern Iowa (46 percent); Dec. 19 vs. St. Louis (66 percent).
Analysis — Missouri State coach Cuonzo Martin is a tough guy not to root for. With a KenPom projected record of 25-4, it looks like his team will be easy to root for this year, too. The Bears aren’t dominant offensively (55th in KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency) or defensively (44th in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency), but it hasn’t hurt that they have made 42.8 percent of their three-pointers this season (NCAA average is 34.1 percent). If Missouri State can get by St. Louis on Saturday, it should still be undefeated heading into the new year.
7. Purdue 0.22 %
Current Record — 9-0
Projected Record — 25-5
Three Toughest Games — Feb. 24 at Minnesota (37 percent); Feb. 17 at Ohio State (38 percent); Jan. 9 at Wisconsin (49 percent).
Analysis — Purdue needs to enjoy its next two cupcakes of Ball State (234th in KenPom) and SIU Edwardsville (325th), because the schedule gets brutal after that. How’s this for a four-game stretch in January? Purdue will play vs. West Virginia (3rd in KenPom), vs. Minnesota (8th), at Wisconsin (8th) and vs. Ohio State (9th). It’s hard to see Purdue surviving that stretch without picking up at least one loss.
T8. Georgetown 0.00%
Current Record — 8-0
Projected Record — 22-7
Three Toughest Games — March 1 at West Virginia (15 percent); Jan. 25 at Syracuse (16 percent); Jan. 30 vs. Duke (40 percent).
Analysis — A lack of depth kills any chance the Hoyas might have at making a serious undefeated run in the Big East, as only 22.2 percent of Georgetown’s minutes come from its bench players (ranking 333rd nationally). Georgetown also has four games remaining against top-five KenPom opponents.
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T8. Kentucky 0.00%
Current Record — 10-0
Projected Record — 24-7
Three Toughest Games — Feb. 27 at Tennessee (14 percent); Feb. 16 at Mississippi State (18 percent); Jan. 12 at Florida (27 percent).
Analysis — If Kentucky flounders down the stretch, we can’t say Ken Pom didn’t try to warn us. Ken Pom’s projection calls for seven UK losses, with all of them coming during SEC play. That would mean a 15-0 start for John Calipari’s crew before a 9-7 finish. So what’s not to like about the Wildcats? Their adjusted offensive and defensive numbers aren’t too impressive (44th offense, 70th defense) and the Wildcats' turnover percentage of 23.5 percent offensively ranks well above the national average of 21.0 percent.
T8. Seton Hall 0.00%
Current Record — 8-0
Projected Record — 19-10
Three Toughest Games — Feb. 20 at West Virginia (7 percent); Jan. 14 at Georgetown (18 percent); Dec. 26 vs. West Virginia (21 percent)
Analysis — In its first eight games, Seton Hall has played just one team in KenPom’s top 200, and that was Cornell (64th). That 0.00% above might even be the Pirates’ likelihood of making it to 2010 undefeated, as they have games against Temple (31st in KenPom), West Virginia (3rd) and Syracuse (5th) all before New Year's Day.
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T8. Texas Tech 0.00%
Current Record — 9-0
Projected Record — 19-11
Three Toughest Games — Jan. 27 at Texas (2 percent); Jan. 16 at Kansas (3 percent); Feb. 20 vs. Texas (7 percent).
Analysis — Texas Tech coach Pat Knight won’t be sending Ken Pomeroy a Christmas Card anytime soon. Ken Pom’s final projection for TTU (19-11, 7-9 in conference) would most likely leave the Red Raiders out of the NCAA Tournament. It seems Pomeroy’s projections are trying to tell us the Red Raiders’ nine consecutive wins have been a bit of a fluke. TTU has only played one opponent in the top 100 of KenPom’s rankings (Washington, 36th in KenPom), and Tech needed overtime to win that home game. The Red Raiders will need to improve offensively, as their adjusted efficiency rating of 106.3 (100th nationally) is third-worst in the Big 12.
Comments
KUbsee69 (anonymous) says…
KenPom does not list Tennessee as one of our toughest games, but lists MU & KSU??
I don't think so.
jnewell (Jesse Newell) says…
He did list them. I missed them when going through the schedule. Good catch. I updated it above.
drgnslayr (anonymous) says…
I've watched many Texas games. Their D is pretty good, but they don't hit free throws, turnover often, and sometimes their offense dips. They foul, too. I can't see them going undefeated. I do think they will smash UNC... Michigan State? ... will be one heck of a game.
Texas is very good, but going undefeated? No way... they also don't have the bench to do it.
If KU can make it through January undefeated while improving at a good clip, they will stand a chance, especially if their depth matures. Obviously, they will have to beat Texas at home...
hawkward1 (anonymous) says…
Love the site - but I do believe that his predictive stat modeling this early in the season is subject to large inaccuracies. No conference play yet and any team, conference play or not, can play very different at the beginning (when everyone is getting used to each other) versus the end of the season. This will be the site to pay heed to heading into the NCAAs with a much more reliable bed of history behind the stats, it is then very predictive.
justanotherfan (anonymous) says…
I think the above shows that if (and this is a big if) both Texas and KU go into their game undefeated, the winner of that game has a great shot at finishing the regular season undefeated.
KU has four monster road games (Texas, Tennessee, Mizzou, K-State). Texas has only K-State and Mizzou. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State could be danger games, but I don't think they are nearly as good as the Longhorns.
Any team that defends has a chance to win every game, which is why I agree that Texas, KU, Syracuse and West Virginia rank so high.
twowheels (anonymous) says…
About MO-State - Don't forget that Steve Woodberry is an assistant coach and another reason to cheer for them.
njjayhawk (anonymous) says…
Either Ken Pom or his computer are drunk....or both.
thmdmph (anonymous) says…
Right on twowheels, Steve Woodberry is by far my favorite 6th-man. Hope he goes far.
thmdmph (anonymous) says…
kinda off topic, but here's why Kentsucky sucky.
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketba...
mikendal (KUFanSince1975) says…
thmdmph--thanks for the website--enjoyed the article on John C.
njjayhawk--good one about Ken Pom's computer or himself being drunk. A lot of people read into this stuff about how good a team might be by throwing in all these statistics in a computer and coming up with an analysis.
Personally, I think it is a good read. KU has a chance to go undefeated. However, it is so tough to do today because any decent team can knock you off if you are having a bad night. Anyone remember the 1996-97 KU team? Undefeated going into the game at Columbia and doggone it, we ended up losing that game to Mizzou. That the year we were suppose to win it all and then, the Arizona Wildcats and Coach Lou took us out in the Tournament. I think for me, that was the hardest loss to take that I could ever remember. Yea, the UTEP loss and the Bucknell loss were hard, but, that Arizona loss was tough. It took me several days to get over that one! Just hope that 96-97 scenario doesn't repeat itself this season. The more the Jayhawks stay undefeated, the more the pressure builds. It would be nice to win all of the games this year, but maybe down the road, a loss, especially a close loss, could help the young pups. Who knows!!! RCJHKU!
actorman (anonymous) says…
I think you're right, mikendal. Logically, the Syracuse loss in '03 should be the toughest since we were SO close to winning it all, but for me I think the number one loss will always be that '97 loss to Arizona. It still hurts to think about it.
mikendal (KUFanSince1975) says…
actorman--
Yea, Syracuse--that was another toughie! Wasn't that Roy's last game as the Jayhawk HC? I believe after that game Roy dropped the "S" bomb on live TV to Bonnie (what's her name) in the locker room.
actorman (anonymous) says…
Yep, that was it. And that's also where the numbers 12-for-30 (as in KU's free throws) became etched into KU lore.
mnbw727 (CriBlu) says…
I go to MO State but I'm a born and bred Jayhawk... It's nice to have both my teams on this list.... especially if they somehow by chance end up in St. Louis for the midwest regional. I would root for the hawks if they played, but it'd be fun to see.
PikesPeakSmitty (anonymous) says…
24% at Texas.... nice.
It will be nice to be an underdog. I can't wait for this season to begin.
When is preseason over, anyway?
HAWKTOPIA (anonymous) says…
Remember there is a freak unknown here. Jeff Withey! Just having 5 more fouls in the bigs is great. A phenominal shot blocker is always good to, and the potential for a dual, withey aldrich tandem could be crazy with the individual penetrators we possess. Take KU undefeated with twin tower power!
lance1jhawk (anonymous) says…
Texas will loose to North Carolina
Jhawkerman (anonymous) says…
Running the table? Not unless we get 7 solid players who play together most of the time. Having so many good to great players has its disadvantages .. we showed that again today against Michigan .. we lacked purpose .. we look lost with the ball, not knowing what to do, or not doing what was needed. The 1-3-1 showed our lack of desire when Sherron didn't penetrate hardly at all ( which is the key to defeating that defense ) .. we just spent the day skip passing and losing a number of passes to turnovers. At this point I think we should know how works well with who and they should play together .. then maybe we should make a second team of stars to play together while resting the "Starting 5" .. we just seem so lost as to what we needed to do .. I know we need to "get the ball inside", but we passed up a number of good opportunities to get that done early and then Cole quit trying so hard (who could blame him when he worked to get open and they just passed the ball around). I think Cole had (other then blocking shots) his worst game of the year today ... Hopefully it will be his last. With Cole I don't understand him getting the ball and then waiting for the double team to come .. Get the ball and make your move before the double team . He still sadly has a lid on the basket (hopefully ending soon). I know he is one of the keys to our success but Balance is also a key and we sometimes look so hard to "get the ball inside" we lose the balance that will open up the middle. You can't force it and most teams know that KU will spend the first number of possessions trying to get the ball inside so they pack it in and we end up turning the ball over. Even a missed shot is better then a turn over so take the open shot if they are packing it in and lets see how the defense reacts.. just turning the ball over make NO sense. Sherron has stopped looking to score most of the game and I think its hurting his game an the team. He is the leader and needs to lead.. Go back to being a scorer and the middle will open up .. Anyway .. some thoughts I needed to get off my chest .. I still Love this team and only want to best for them as that is the best for our fans.. Go KU ..
Rock Chalk
theebest (anonymous) says…
Jhawkerman I agree with you to a point but they got beat from the bench. You learn not to learn to through cross court passes against a zone in the middle school. You are dead on about Aldrich but the same is also of the other forwards except Thomas. When you are in the paint its a catch and shoot or move not wait. Roy Williams got beat like that against Syracuse. The guards need a mid-range game 11-14 out they are way too fast to not take advantage of their speed and good shooting. Trust me its from the bench you my not be old enough to have seen Bill Self play. Plus Aldrich plays on his heels instead of the ball of his feet. Manning ain't seen that but he claims its about foot work which is true. I am sick of these sideline breaks. You pass to the middle or dribble to the middle that forces the defense on the ball which leaves your wing players open for a uncontested shot or drive. That is just not old school its winning basketball. If they don't get it Texas will kill them I love their guard play. I pisses me off because I know Kansas got blazing guards Reed and Morningstar are jets with a shot I just feel they got the Reigns on them. I will never forget When Dick Vatale ask Bill Self when he got the job will he run fast. He said we will but not that fast.Sometimes a coach has to trust that they will have composure on the breaks.
RockCaCO3 (anonymous) says…
actorman, the remote to my tv somehow got smashed against a wall after the 97 loss to Arizona. That one sucked. Bad.