Advertisement

Advertisement

Time for Wild Predictions

The NCAA will be a shell of itself within the next two decades, possibly within the next 5-7 years.

Why? The money train will run out, and move on to greener pastures.

Think about this with me for a second. What did we learn this summer? Remember those wild weeks of conference realignment talk, with the fate of nearly every major conference hinging on what happened in Austin, Tx and South Bend, In? Remember that? Well, the NCAA definitely remembers that, because they had ABSOLUTELY NO CONTROL over what was going on. Let me restate that for those who weren't paying attention.

The National Collegiate Athletic Association SAT BY and watched POWERLESSLY as the entire landscape of college athletics nearly changed OVERNIGHT. College sports nearly had a massive overhaul and the NCAA was sitting on the sidelines, because they have NO REAL POWER.

So what does this mean? Well, it means that when the age of the superconferences comes (and that age is coming, do not fool yourself), the NCAA may be left holding the bag.

Think about college football. There is currently no NCAA Division I football champion. The NCAA doesn't sanction college football, other than ruling on eligibility, etc because the institutions are NCAA member schools. But think about it - why do those schools need the NCAA? Only for their other sports. Football could function entirely outside the NCAA umbrella, save for the fact that as NCAA member institutions, the players must be cleared by the NCAA to be eligible. Who holds the power in college football? The BCS.

There is no question that the BCS holds all the cards in college football. If you aren't in the BCS (like TCU and Boise State) you can win all the games you want, and still wonder if you will ever get a shot at playing for a national title, and the NCAA can't step in and change that.

College sports is big business. It has been since the Big East was formed to take advantage of college hoops in the New York/Boston/Philadelphia/D.C. area in the early 80's. Now the Big Ten has a network, the Pac-10 is starting one, the SEC has one in the works, and Texas is angling for their OWN TV network, just to broadcast Longhorn sports. The money is driving this train, and the NCAA is on the outside looking in.

So what happens once the age of superconferences dawns? Well, there will only be 96 teams (maximum) that make the cut. Six superconferences with 16 teams each. It's hard to predict how that will shake down, but in the end, only 96 schools will matter in Division 1. The rest might as well just drop to D-2, because the money gulf will only widen from here.

Once those 96 schools are sorted out, the BCS can open up shop to replace the NCAA. Their own eligibility system. Their own rankings. Their own championships in every other sport. Think about it. If the Superconferences are really calling all the shots, what could the NCAA do if all the major programs (Michigan, Ohio State, Texas, USC, Florida, etc.) decided they were going to break away and start their own series of championships? Really, who would watch the leftover D-1 programs (teams from the Sun Belt, Conference USA, and the dregs of the WAC and Mountain West) battle it out. Or who would watch an NCAA basketball field without Indiana, Kansas, UCLA, Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky, or any of the other traditional powers?

Remember, the NCAA, because it does not control basketball, makes the vast majority of it's profits from the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. If that cash cow suddenly wasn't producing any milk, the NCAA would have nothing. And if the power schools left, leaving only the Pepperdine's and Butler's and Gonzaga's of the world, would those schools still get potential NBA prospects when the BCS basketball tournament would feature almost all of the top talent?

The Superconferences are coming, and the end of the NCAA could be not too far behind on the horizon.

Comments