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Posted
by Justanotherfan
December 14, 2009 at 3:46 p.m.
Thoughts on Kentucky and Kansas
Kansas
As everybody on this board knows, KU is loaded. I won't spend nearly as much time in this piece on our Hawks because we already know our Hawks. Just a few points that stick out.
1) Kansas is like a 300 pound guy leaning on a stick. They don't have to play exceptionally to beat you. They just sort of lean on you with all that talent. Saturday was a perfect example. La Salle hung around, and hung around, but KU kept leaning on them until eventually they broke. We will see a lot of games like that this year, where our guys don't necessarily play well, but the other team is just eventually overwhelmed by the amount of talent we present every night 1-10. Or 11. Or 12. Or whatever Coach Self decides on.
2) Xavier Henry is our best offensive player. Not just because he's scoring, which I expected. X gets his points the way truly great scorers get a lot of their points - without working exceptionally hard. How many times this year has X scored half his points (or more) on wide open threes or fast breaks? He does everything within the offense, which is perfect for someone so exceptionally talented, on a team with elite talent at every position.
3) Our defense is only going to get better, and that is really scary. Once our guys figure out where each other will be on rotations, the defense will really tighten up. Since everybody knows this team can score more or less whenever they want, the defense getting better is truly a dangerous proposition for our opponents.
4) Our only potential flaw was shown on Saturday - we are only an okay rebounding team. Not great. That may in fact be the only thing we aren't great at. However, the last several national champs have been among the leaders in rebounding margin, so this is something that needs to be shored up quickly. With our size, though, we should be a very good, bordering on dominant, rebounding team.
So who can beat the Hawks? Well, I look down the schedule and am only fearful of Tennessee in the non-con (everyone else lacks talent in some way or another). In conference, it gets more dangerous, because we have to do home and homes with MU and K-State, both of whom have the talent and style to give us problems at least once, plus a trip to Austin against the third most talented team in the country. Other than that, though, only trap games exist (Oklahoma, OSU, Baylor, etc.) I think this team loses only twice.
Kentucky
I have several thoughts on Kentucky now that I have watched them four times.
1) John Wall is better than advertized. The hype did not do him justice. He is faster, stronger and more athletic than I was led to believe. Oh, and he has great basketball skills, too. a. John Wall is impossible to guard straight up in the open court. He splits defenders better than anybody in college basketball at full speed. He's strong as a bull, and he can elevate and dunk from a full sprint, an underrated skill.
quick aside - many guards cannot dunk from a full sprint. They can't jump under control when running full speed, so they have to lay the ball up when at full speed. Wall can dunk (and will, with authority) from a full sprint.
b. Wall is better in the half court than I could have imagined. He's content to run an offense, and only take over late in the game if necessary, or early in the game to jumpstart his team. He has great court sense in this respect.
c. It helps Wall to be paired in the backcourt with Eric Bledsoe, who is a very good guard in his own right. Wall doesn't have to handle it all the time, and can fill the wing on the break if Bledsoe gets the outlet.
2) This UK team will not choke away games late at the line. Wall is an 80% FT shooter. Backcourt mate Eric Bledsoe is in the mid 80s, too. That's who will handle the ball late, so UK should be able to close teams out.
3) Patrick Patterson has expanded his game. He added range out to 18 ft, plus some face up moves. He will be a load to handle.
4) Much was made this year about the DDM, and how Kentucky would use it. UK is rarely in a pure DDM this year, owing to the fact they have three legitimate post scorers (Patterson, Cousins and Orton). Calipari, to his credit, has recognized his talent and adjusted his offense accordingly.
5) UK absolutely has to have either Bledsoe or Wall on the floor at all times in close (or even relatively close) games. Remember, UK didn't have a single true PG on their roster last year. Without Wall and Bledsoe, they still don't, and it shows when those two aren't on the floor.
6) This Kentucky team will only get better defensively, as will KU. Calipari is a very good defensive coach, and his teams have always played high level defense, dating back to his UMass days. There's no doubt in my mind they will be a top flight defensive team.
So who can beat UK?
Well, they have dispatched UNC and UConn both. Louisville is lurking in early January, but they are kind of a mess right now, and that game is at Rupp anyway. Florida gets UK twice, but they didn't look good against Syracuse, and UK is much better than Cuse. Tennessee gets the Cats twice, too. Maybe Ole Miss or LSU could beat them (LSU gets them in Baton Rouge). Other than that, though, they just have trap games. Although Calipari is probably hoping they lose a couple so he can shore up their holes before the tournament.
So who is better between KU and UK?
Well, KU is deeper, but in one game, that won't matter. Looking back to the KU-Memphis national title game, KU was deeper then, too, but depth was irrelevant because both teams played basically only a few guys (Aldrich played just 4 minutes) and in the second half, KU played Jackson, Arthur, Rush, Chalmers and Collins almost exclusively, while Memphis countered with Dozier, Douglas-Roberts, Anderson, Rose and Dorsey (before he fouled out).
I can imagine that if KU and UK met, KU would play Collins, Aldrich, whichever Morris was playing better, X, Tyshawn, either Withey or Robinson and either Morningstar, Reed, Johnson or CJ (depending on who wins that minutes battle) for most of that game and UK would counter with Wall, Bledsoe, Patterson, Cousins, Darius Miller, Perry Stephenson, Daniel Orton and Jon Hood. The bulk of the minutes for each team would go to their future NBAers (Wall, Bledsoe, Patterson, Cousins, Miller vs. Collins, Aldrich, a Morris, X and Taylor), rendering depth irrelevant. I still like KU in this matchup, but wouldn't count Kentucky out because both Patterson and Wall have the ability to take over the game offensively, and KU doesn't have a post player that can take over offensively, because Cole is more of a dominant defensive player than offensive.
Comments
suttonku (anonymous) says…
How does depth not matter in a game? What about fouls? What about injuries? Depth matters in every game. It changes the way you gameplan games. With KUs depth Self will elect to press during the Big 12 season and the tourny...Without depth I dont think we would be pressing but because we have it we have the energy and the fouls to get away with it. Dont tell me that depth doesnt matter in one single game because depth matters in every single game.
WildcatsOne (anonymous) says…
A fair take. I was giving some KU fans grief the other day about their schedule being weak thusfar, but in all honesty,I know they are a good team. I cannot wait till conference play starts as that will give us all a good indication of where we stand.
To all the KU fans....I was just razzing you guys the other day. You really are one of my favorite teams. I am actually going to attend your game in Knoxville against Tennessee, and will be chanting Rock Chalk Jay Hawk all night long. Sorry my budget will not allow for a KU shirt for the event....I spend all that money on Kentucky Blue! I'm sure you can understand.
Good luck to you guys this season....I hope we can meet up in Indy.
waywardJay (anonymous) says…
Widlcats.....
It's funny to hear Kentucky fans speak of Kansas' schedule..... we can't all get by on the gardner webb's ;)
We know you are good too..... I like the matchup our bigs provide yours..... i think our post can cause your post trouble as your guards can cause ours fits.....
I think the break down will end up thusly..... If we were to play
Sherron Collins - Eric Bledsoe.....
Tyshawn Taylor - John Wall.....
Xavier henry - Darius Miller....
Marcus Morris - Patrick Patterson....
Cole ALdrich - Demarcus Cousins.....
Sherron should beat out Beldsoe on experience... Bledsoe's an excellent guard though, John wall will struggle with Taylor but should still score pretty high..... Likewise Xavier with Miller..... Aldrich should manhandle Cousins on the post.... again Cousin's is a good player but I think Cole's inside game will hurt COusin's this year.... maybe not down the road, but as a freshman.... that shoudl go to Cole.....
What it really comes down to in my mind.... is that Morris- Patterson Matchup....
That's a Hell of an Athletic match up right there..... If Kentucky can win that matchup they have a chance.....
Granted, Im one that tends to think that Wall will eventually be stripped of his numbers due to athletic fraud by the NCAA, so this "win or loss" scenario might be fruitless.... but that again is Me... I'm highly critical of his "eligibility" just as I was of Derrick Rose......
Good luck down the Road..... and please tell your brethren to stop throwing rocks at a sleeping bear...... Just ask ALcorn State what happens when you piss Sherron Off......
justanotherfan (anonymous) says…
suttonku
In one game, depth is irrelevant. Look back at that Memphis game.
KU played 8 guys, but Aldrich played 4 minutes, Kaun played 20 and Robinson played 21. That's 45 minutes from three guys. The other 5 (Collins, Rush, Chalmers, Arthur and Jackson) played the remaining 180 between them. Depth was irrelevant in that game because Self didn't want to play a single second of that game without his best possible lineup. That's what renders depth irrelevant in a single game. You think he's going to put Tyrel Reed in for minutes that he could have Xavier Henry in for, with a national title on the line? Of course not. You think Thomas Robinson will take minutes from Cole Aldrich with a trophy standing by? No! You think Sherron Collins won't play every possible second? In a close game for a title, those three guys are getting 35 minutes. For Kentucky, Wall, Patterson, Cousins and Bledsoe all probably get 30-35 minutes each. Both teams would play their best possible lineups, as outlined above, for 30-35 minutes. Only if one teams top unit wasn't playing well would they make drastic changes.
RCJ (anonymous) says…
waywardjay......i would say brady morningstar on john wall
Bluebloodtoo (anonymous) says…
UK fan here - If I were X, I would worry much more about Ramon Harris putting the lock down on me than Darius Miller.
suttonku (anonymous) says…
Ok reread my post...Depth Matters! if it didnt then why are people like Fraschilla making such a big deal about it? You saying that Sherron would play every second that he could in a big game is flawed because you dont take into account getting injured or the foul situation. This team could get into foul trouble at some point and that is where depth comes in. Depth matters in terms of deciding if you want to press the whole game, like KU will do in Big 12 season. If you dont have depth then you really cant press because you cant rely on your bench. I understand that youre saying that Cole and Sherron and X would all want to play every second of a big game but thats not how it works out all the time in basketball. You can play to play an entire game but you do not control the refs and thats where depth comes in. You're a fool if you dont think depth matters.
suttonku (anonymous) says…
And Cole only played 4 minutes because he was a freshman and he couldnt play at the pace of that game very effectively. And KU may have only played 8 players but our bench (depth) outscored Memphis' bench (depth) 15-2. And not to mention, Robinson started that game and only played 20 minutes compared to Collins' 34 minutes. So even in the Championship game, Depth Mattered!
justanotherfan (anonymous) says…
sutton
Depth matters over a long season because of the ups and downs of the season. In a single game, especially a title game, coaches automatically go to their best guys. It's natural. Looking back at the 2008 team, Sherron played the bulk of the "closer" minutes because Self felt his best lineup was Jackson, Arthur, Rush, Chalmers and Collins. So even though Sherron didn't start, he played just about every critical minute of that season. In the title game, Kansas relied heavily on 5 guys, just as every coach would in that situation, because you want your best five guys on the floor as much as possible.
Even if someone were to pick up two quick fouls in the title game, chances that they would sit more than five minutes are slim, because sitting X in favor of Brady for the bulk of the first half, or sitting Sherron in favor of EJ, or whatever it may be, isn't productive with a title on the line. You play them, hope they play smart and don't foul out.
Over a long season, depth matters to avoid getting unnecessary wear and tear on your best guys. But in one game, only the game matters, and that's when its time to play your best guys, and only your best guys.
suttonku (anonymous) says…
So let me get this straight...You think that if X were to pick up 2 quick fouls in a championship game lets say with 13 minutes left in the half that he wouldnt sit until at least 2 or 3 minutes are left? Because he would have to sit at least that amount in my mind. Having to sit him out would be bad but losing him for the game would be even worse. What happens if he picks up a 3rd with 8 minutes left in the half? I agree that it doesnt help you chances of winning a title but it would hurt a whole lot more to lose X with 10 minutes left in the game! Depth matters in any one game and throughout the season.
justanotherfan (anonymous) says…
Which is better, to sit X for 10 minutes, then have a 10 point hole to dig out of, or play him and go to a zone, or switch his defensive assignment, so he stays on the floor offensively?
I say the second option, because offensively, KU doesn't have a guy like X on their bench. Same applies to Sherron and Cole. Cole's situation is tough, because he's inside, but you have to ask him to be smart and not pick up bad early fouls away from the basket (something he has improved on), and to not go for blocks when he is not in great position. Even still, in a title game, you have to play your best guys. It does you no good to save a guy and let the other team take control of the game. Ten minutes without a player of that caliber in a game that important? No way, you have to risk it. Maybe sit him two or three minutes to get him calmed down and let him know he has to be smart, but that's it.
vmwskywalk (anonymous) says…
justanother - one area you overlooked that I think will be a deciding factor should these two teams meet; outside shooting. I've seen UK a few times this year too. They are very streaky, more so than KU. I feel like KU is going to hit their threes this year, and may get better with Brady in the lineup. I think if you can get UK to shoot from outside, you've got a good shot to beat them. If that turns out to be the case, we should see teams throw lots of zone at them by the end of the season.
And to those who want to compare the KU/UK schedule so far. RPI has KUs strength of schedule ranked one spot ahead of UK at this point. Kansas will certainly improve their schedule strength from here on out.
suttonku (anonymous) says…
First of all, going to a zone doesnt mean X would stop fouling...Ever heard of a charge? and you can still pick up defensive fouls in a zone...
And who is to say we would absolutely be in a hole if X was in foul trouble? Maybe he wasnt having a good game. I think we would be in more trouble without Sherron but I guess we are only talking about X.
In a title game you have to play the players that are going to get you the win but you also have to account for variable change and when X gets into foul trouble, thats variable change. I would take X out of the game and put him back in at the appropriate time or if we looked like crap on the floor but if we look OK without him then I would save him for the second half and if it was in the second half I would sit him and save him for the final push...Have you ever coached basketball? I have and you have to take out even your best players if they get in foul trouble because you will need them for the final push. And that, ladies and gentleman, is why depth is important in every SINGLE game. I rest my case. Thank you.
justanotherfan (anonymous) says…
I have coached basketball before.
You take players out, yes. But in playoff type situations, you will get burned more often than not by sitting a guy too long rather than playing him too long.
Have you ever seen a player sit for an abnormally long time (8-10 minutes) then come back in and be out of sync and out of the flow of the game? That's the risk you take by sitting a player for longer than they are used to. I bet you X hasn't sat for a 10 minute stretch since he was in middle school. Doing that in a critical game could throw off his timing, meaning he might not be effective once he gets back in. That's the risk. I'm not saying you leave a guy in no matter what, but you have to ask your best players to be situationally smart. Further, if you fall too far behind trying to save your best players for that final push, your final push will be to make the score respectable rather than to win.
As for outside shooting, UK isn't a bad shooting team. As a team they have shot 38% from three. Of their five primary three point shooters, none shoots worse than 36%. And the fact that they have five guys that can shoot decently (including Bledsoe, who is over 50%) makes them dangerous. Furthermore, the fact that Cousins and Patterson can both step to the high post means they can attack a zone that way, which is the best way to attack it, anyway, rather than hoisting threes all day.
suttonku (anonymous) says…
I will say it again...You can play X or whoever with 2 fouls early but when he picks up his 4th with 14 minutes left in the second half you could be in trouble. Bench scoring is very important to winning games and KUs bench scoring should be through the roof. You coach a championship game like you would coach any other game because once you change the way you coach thats when mistakes happen. I would sit X on the bench if he was in foul trouble until we were starting to get into a hole or we just cant do anything on offense. I would sit him as long as I possibly could without getting in trouble. Say if I had a 15 point lead and it got down to 8 I would put him in at that time and move to a zone in hopes that he wont foul, granted it probably takes away his ability to drive to the rim because he cannot pick up a charging foul. I do think you could get away with having CJ or Morningstar on the floor for 5-8 minutes because they both play pretty good defense and they both are threats from the outside so they still stretch the defense out. And that's why depth is important. Again, I rest my case.
jayhawkintx73 (anonymous) says…
Whoa. Wait a second here. If we were playing Kentucky in the regular season I would be interested in discussing this right now, but here is what I see for the Jayhawks. 15-1 in Conference play, and I think that loss will come to K-State. What? K-State. There is some bulletin board material over the intentional foul on that dude that elbowed Morningstar in the back a year ago. Videos on Youtube of what some people see Morningstar throwing a punch, but of course, we know that he wasn't, but they don't care about that.
Regular season record for the Jayhawks? 29-2, plus 3 in the Big 12 tourney. 32-2. And then a march to the title game, which even as being a number one seed, won't be easy. But I do see this. KU vs Texas in the National Championship game, a rematch of the Big 12 championship game. The most exciting national championship game in the history of NCAA in April, 2010.