Pick 6: Bets bets for Week 9 of college football
Best bet: Texas (-1.5) at TCU
TCU opened as a slight favorite, so I hope you got the early line for better value. I’m still willing to take Texas at this latest line, as the market might be overreacting to a 50-48 win over Kansas last week. The Longhorns might be struggling on defense, but this offense is potent and will make enough plays to win this game.
Long shot: California (+21) at Utah
California (4-3, 1-3 in Pac 12) has dropped three consecutive games, including a 21-17 loss to Oregon State last week. While I don’t think the Bears will win this game, their defense is legit enough to cover a three-touchdown spread. California is giving up just 18.7 points per game this season, and the total for this game is set at 36.5 points.
Over of the week: Wisconsin at Ohio State (49.5)
Playing an over in a Big 10 contest can be a dangerous game, but this total is a bit too low for me. Wisconsin (6-1) has a strong defense, but Ohio State (7-0) quarterback Justin Fields is leading an offense that averages 49.7 points per game. He has 30 touchdowns and only one turnover this year. Give me the over in this one.
Under of the week: Oklahoma State at Iowa State (63.5)
My pick for this game is below, but I feel more confident in the under. Much like my over pick, playing an under in a Big 12 game can be a silly suggestion. But ISU’s defense has been playing much better as of late. In Big 12 play, Iowa State is giving up just 21.3 points per game. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, is averaging 29.5 points per game in league play.
NFL action: Seahawks (-7) at Atlanta Falcons
I’d like this line a lot more if it was closer to the opening line of 5.5 points, but you couldn’t pay me enough to bet on the Falcons. Atlanta’s pass defense is really bad, and Russell Wilson will be able to get back on track this week after making some mistakes in a wet loss to the Ravens.
Notable nugget: Fading KU as a slight underdog has been smart
Instead of a sixth bet suggestion, I’m including a relevant piece of information about this week’s game. Kansas is 3-0 against the spread this season as a three-touchdown underdog or more, which includes last week’s narrow loss at Texas. When the line is two touchdowns or less, however, KU is actually 0-4 ATS. But you can see if our crew believes in this trend in our picks below.
KU sports staff picks against the spread
Kansas vs. Texas Tech (-3)
Matt Tait: Kansas
Benton Smith: Kansas
Braden Shaw: Kansas
Shane Jackson: Kansas
Auburn at LSU (-10.5)
Matt Tait: LSU
Benton Smith: LSU
Braden Shaw: LSU
Shane Jackson: LSU
Oklahoma State at Iowa State (-10.5)
Matt Tait: Iowa State
Benton Smith: Oklahoma State
Braden Shaw: Oklahoma State
Shane Jackson: Iowa State
Notre Dame at Michigan (-1)
Matt Tait: Michigan
Benton Smith: Notre Dame
Braden Shaw: Notre Dame
Shane Jackson: Michigan
Denver Broncos (+6) at Indianapolis Colts
Matt Tait: Colts
Benton Smith: Colts
Braden Shaw: Colts
Shane Jackson: Broncos
Green Bay Packers (-4) at Kansas City Chiefs
Matt Tait: Packers
Benton Smith: Packers
Braden Shaw: Packers
Shane Jackson: Chiefs
Shane Jackson: 27-21 (4-2 in Week 8)
Benton Smith: 23-25 (1-5 in Week 8)
Matt Tait: 22-26 (4-2 in Week 8)
Braden Shaw: 17-31 (1-5 in Week 8)