Coming off bye week, KU considered a 22-point underdog at Texas
Vegas doesn’t believe a coaching change will do the trick for the Kansas football team.
KU promoted Brent Dearmon to offensive coordinator during the bye week last week, but it will be a tough test in his debut as a Power 5 play caller. Kansas will travel to Texas at 6 p.m. Saturday.
The Longhorns, who are ranked No. 17 in the nation, are coming off a 34-27 loss to No. 5 Oklahoma. The Jayhawks suffered a 45-20 defeat to the Sooners in the first weekend of October. Entering that meeting, Kansas was considered a 33-point underdog in a home matchup with Oklahoma.
KU opened as a 23-point underdog against Texas, though the line has dropped down to 22 points as of Monday afternoon via FanDuel’s Sportsbook. It would be the second-largest spread for the Jayhawks this season, according to Vegas Insider, if it closed at 22 points.
ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Kansas just a 4% chance of winning this game. KU defeated Texas in 2016 by a 24-21 margin, people forget that. The Jayhawks have also lost the last two meetings with the Longhorns by a combined 22 points.
None of that matters, of course. What does matter is that Texas is dealing with injuries, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Defensive end Malcolm Roach will also miss the first half due to an ejection against Oklahoma.
Oh, and Texas is giving up an average of 4.24 rushing yards per attempt. So this could be a big week for KU’s rushing attack. I’m taking the points at this current line. With that, let’s look around the rest of the Big 12 to see if there is any value in the opening lines:
Iowa State (-7) at Texas Tech
People wanted to bury Iowa State after a loss to Baylor in the Big 12 opener, but this team has won two in a row. FPI gives the Cyclones (4-2) at least a 62% chance of winning every game in the second half of the season, except the game against Sooners. Don’t sleep on ISU, I’m fine with laying the points.
Pick ATS: Iowa State
West Virginia at Oklahoma (-33.5)
FPI gives the Sooners a 74.7% chance of winning the Big 12 after a 6-0 start, which included a 34-27 win over Texas last weekend. OU even has a 30.7% chance of winning out, per FPI. Still, the Sooners haven’t covered in each of their last two Big 12 games. If you made me, I’d take the points in this game.
Pick ATS: West Virginia
TCU (-2.5) at Kansas State
FPI gives Kansas State a 52.5% chance of winning this game, but TCU is the favorite. This feels like a big contest for both teams in terms of bowl-game implications. K-State will be without its top receiver, Malik Knowles, and that is a big deal. The Wildcats haven’t run for more than 150 yards in a game since the second week of the season. I think TCU can win by at least a field goal.
Pick ATS: TCU
Baylor at Oklahoma State (-3.5)
Baylor outlasted Texas Tech in overtime to stay undefeated, but will be tested against Oklahoma State. FPI gives the Bears just a 40% chance of winning this week’s matchup with the Cowboys, who fell to the Red Raiders two weeks ago to drop to 4-2 on the year. Maybe I’m a sucker, but I believe in Baylor and will take the points.
Pick ATS: Baylor