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Pick 6: Best bets for Week 12 of college football

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Fans watch as an air refueled flies over Memorial Stadium prior to kickoff on Saturday, Nov. 2, 2019 at Memorial Stadium.

Fans watch as an air refueled flies over Memorial Stadium prior to kickoff on Saturday, Nov. 2, 2019 at Memorial Stadium. by Nick Krug

Best bet: Texas (+7) at Iowa State

It is funny how much things change over the course of a season. Earlier in the year, I was constantly fading Texas. Now, I’m backing the Longhorns because I think the market went too far in the opposite direction. This defense is getting more healthy, and a touchdown is simply too much. Plus, betting Tom Herman as an underdog in his career has been quite the money maker.

Long shot: Ole Miss (+21.5) vs. LSU

Those who have followed this blog all year knew this was coming. Especially in college football, I’m a firm believer in letdown games. By now, you have seen what Joe Burrow and No. 1 LSU did to Alabama last week. The Rebels won’t be a pushover either, as they are leading the SEC in rushing. I think that is enough to cover the three-touchdown spread.

Easy favorite: Alabama (-17.5) at Mississippi State

Along those same lines, putting my money in a Nick Saban-led team coming off a loss seems like a strong play. The Bulldogs have also lost four of their previous five games, with their lone win coming against Arkansas. I’m not sure there was a number too high that would have forced me to stay away.

Over of the week: Kansas at Oklahoma State (67.5)

I’m diving back in on the over for KU games. I just believe Brent Dearmon will have a response off a bye after scoring only 10 points in a 38-10 loss to Kansas State just two weeks ago. Oklahoma State has a stellar offense, which is led by the nation’s leading rusher in Chuba Hubbard.

Under of the week: Oklahoma at Baylor (67.5)

There isn’t a whole lot of logic behind this pick, to be honest. It stood out to me because it was the same total at KU’s Week 12 matchup with Oklahoma State. This is more of a gut feeling pick. If Baylor is going to win this game, it is going to come down to getting key stops and limiting possessions.

NFL action: Buffalo Bills (-6.5) at Miami Dolphins

My NFL bet was a dud last week, but I fully expect to get back in the win column. I don’t understand this line at all. The Bills were a 17-point favorite in the first meeting between these two teams, so the market might be overreacting to a pair of fluky wins by the Dolphins. Buffalo will take care of business this week on the road.

KU sports staff picks against the spread

All of these lines are presented by FanDuel’s Sportsbook. Sign up today on FanDuel using this special promotion.

Kansas at Oklahoma State (-18)

Matt Tait: Kansas

Benton Smith: Kansas

Braden Shaw: Oklahoma State

Shane Jackson: Kansas

Oklahoma (-10) at Baylor

Matt Tait: Baylor

Benton Smith: Baylor

Braden Shaw: Baylor

Shane Jackson: Baylor

Navy at Notre Dame (-9.5)

Matt Tait: Notre Dame

Benton Smith: Notre Dame

Braden Shaw: Notre Dame

Shane Jackson: Navy

USC (-6.5) at California

Matt Tait: USC

Benton Smith: USC

Braden Shaw: USC

Shane Jackson: USC

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5)

Matt Tait: Ravens

Benton Smith: Ravens

Braden Shaw: Ravens

Shane Jackson: Ravens

Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Los Angeles Chargers

Matt Tait: Chargers

Benton Smith: Chiefs

Braden Shaw: Chiefs

Shane Jackson: Chiefs

Season standings

Shane Jackson: 35-31 (2-4 in Week 11)

Benton Smith: 33-33 (4-2 in Week 11)

Matt Tait: 31-35 (4-2 in Week 11)

Braden Shaw: 26-40 (4-2 in Week 11)

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