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"Upsetology" gives ND State 22.6 percent chance of beating KU

Blog: Heard on the Hill

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By Andy Hyland

March 17, 2009

The Wall Street Journal has pegged KU as the three seed most vulnerable to a first-round upset.

In an article titled "The Science of Upsetology," KU would lose to North Dakota State 22.6 percent of the time, according to 10,000 computer simulations of the game run by sports forecaster AccuScore.

KU's chance of losing Friday's game is the highest among the top 12 seeded teams in the tournament, according to the rankings. While that may seem a little grim, especially given KU's first-round upsets in recent history, it's at least better treatment than the simulations gave Washington.

The fourth seed in the West region was only given a 51.9 percent chance of beating 13th-seeded Mississippi State.

Tip of the cap to KUSports.com user TriniHawk for the link.

Comments

memhawk (anonymous) says...

So we have a 77.4% chance of winning?

Let's focus on the positive!

Trinihawk needs to pay closer attention to the sports oriented publications and not so much to the WSJ. Interesting info. but too much "negativology" for me.

March 17, 2009 at 6:40 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

cshjhawk (anonymous) says...

Who ever read a sports article in the Wall Street Journal? The WSJ needs to focus on business journalism!

March 17, 2009 at 6:48 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

CharlesLogan (anonymous) says...

KU lost to Texas Tech.....Every team in the tournament is better than Tech!!!!! The Jayhawks need to focus on EVERY game. Starting now. What happened against Texas Tech, Baylor, and bucknell!!!!!! Can easily happen again. Don't think it will tho. : )

March 17, 2009 at 7:26 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

mariofan11 (anonymous) says...

wc = who cares

March 17, 2009 at 9:36 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

chicagoeddie (anonymous) says...

swc = seriously who cares

March 17, 2009 at 9:54 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

Yakihawk (anonymous) says...

Why all the talk about losing?

March 17, 2009 at 9:56 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

indijayhawk (anonymous) says...

where is the love?

March 17, 2009 at 11:15 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

BoulderHawk (anonymous) says...

The Science of Upsetology?
That statement is ridiculous on so many levels.
WTF Would I want to read the article.

March 17, 2009 at 11:29 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

CaliHawk33 (anonymous) says...

What do ya know? Another East Coast Media outlet talking down on the Hawks.

Beat that @$$ Hawks!

March 18, 2009 at 12:04 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

summers (anonymous) says...

I can think of a few trillion other things on which the Wall Street Journal could report.

March 18, 2009 at 12:30 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

stupidmichael (anonymous) says...

Looks like I have a 22.6% chance of jumping off a bridge...

March 18, 2009 at 12:57 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

LAJayhawk (anonymous) says...

There is a rather obvious reason (or I should say reasons) why computers don't predict sporting events (if they did, there would be a whole lot of very rich betters out there and an equal number of broke bookies). Far too many variables. I'm curious what the margin of error is in this "calculation" or if they even included one. A small sample of variables:

Someone gets sick.

Someone doesn't sleep well.

Someone sleeps too much.

There's a light in the building that effects the best shooter.

Or the worst.

The ball has too much air in it.

Or too little.

The air in the building is extra humid causing someone's hands to be extra sweaty.

One of the referees gets in a fight with his wife before the game, gets whistle happy.

One of the referee's kids gets into a prestigious college; he wonders how he's going to pay for it with his 401k tanking thanks to the advice of Jim Cramer.

One of the referees has an undiagnosed blood clot forming in the back of his head causing vision problems.

A spider crawls into a players shoe before he puts it on; he gets bit.

A player's dog dies.

Or his favorite buffalo.

A player shaves too closely and gets razor burn. Applies Aloe Vera, but discovers he is allergic. Takes benadryl and gets drowsy.

A player dresses with his shorts on backwards. Discovers it in the middle of the game. Crowd doesn't let him hear the end of it.

Or the coach does.

All the members of the University of Kansas Mens basketball team play to a level beyond what was ever expected. Sherron Collins, Cole Aldrich, Tyshawn Taylor, Marcus and Markieff Morris, and Brady Moringstar have the games of their lives each scoring over 20 points and holding their respective opponent to under 5. Collins scores 40 points, has 12 assists to 0 turnovers and records 10 steals. Aldrich scores 32 with 27 rebounds and 16 block shots. We win by 75.

Or by 8.

Either way, we win.

Or at least that's what happens in 77.4% of the multi-universes.

March 18, 2009 at 1:46 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

JayViking (anonymous) says...

Hehe. Good post LA.

March 18, 2009 at 8:13 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

memhawk (anonymous) says...

Did they predict that Derrick Roe would have a tummy ache last year in the championship game from eating too many guumi-bears, skittles and other junk food before the game. And, that Andre Allen, a seasoned player for Memphis would have tested positive on his drug test and not allowed to play in his final game? Now,that definitely should have been one of the computer models that would have been run! But I digress.

March 18, 2009 at 9:17 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

hesshawk (anonymous) says...

I think LAJayhawk has covered every possible variable that could affect a game outcome and he did it with some superior humor. The post is a keeper !

Nearly splattered coffee all over the keyboard !!!

March 18, 2009 at 9:55 a.m. ( | suggest removal )