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October 14, 2009
All right, let’s try this again.
Last week in the ‘Hawks in the NBA blog, we looked at — and even criticized — a blog by ESPN.com’s John Hollinger, who focused on each NBA player’s PER: Player Efficiency Rating.
Hollinger’s PER stat measures the per-minute productivity of more than 300 NBA players and is based purely on statistics. The result, although interesting, left a jumbled mess of potential confusion, as loads of bench players who shined late in games in limited minutes last season found themselves ranked substantially higher than starters and sixth-men who played big minutes and small roles.
As we examined where the former Jayhawks in the Association fell on the list, I began to wonder if there was a better way to rank the current KU alums in the NBA. We all know that Paul Pierce is the most valuable former Jayhawk currently playing pro ball and can assume that Darnell Jackson — because of his role not his ability — is probably the least valuable.
But I figured why not quantify that in some way?
With that, the PVR was born. Please don’t confuse it with PBR, the tasty beverage popular in dive bars, or PAR, any hack golfer’s dream. The PVR is this blog’s Player Value Rating and it takes five things into account: Experience, Ability, Productivity, Intangibles and Potential.
*Please note that this formula was created as a way to generate discussion and should in no way be taken as a scientific formula that measures anything other than one man’s opinion.
I won’t bore you by rating the non-KU guys out there, although it should be pointed out that LeBron James is a perfect 25 in PVR. Big surprise, right?
Anyway, without further ado, I give you this year’s PVR. Remember, the numbers listed below are based on a 1-to-5 scale, with 5 being outstanding and 1 being Ugh.
Enjoy!
2009 Hawks in the NBA PVR
Mario Chalmers — Although Chalmers doesn’t have the experience in terms of longevity, that’s the only thing holding him back at the moment. When it comes to second-year players, though, few have as much experience as Chalmers, a starter for the Heat all of last season. In addition to earning a starting spot, Chalmers was near the top of the league rankings in steals and contributed solid numbers on the offensive end as well. It’s clear by now that Miami got a steal with this guy. He’s going to be a starting point guard in the NBA for many years to come. Experience: 2, Ability: 4, Productivity: 4, Intangibles: 4, Potential: 5, Total: 19.
Paul Pierce — There’s no doubt that Pierce is the better and more accomplished player. But when you consider that he’s at the end of his career and Chalmers is at the beginning of his, the hero of the 2008 national championship game gets ranked ahead of Pierce on the list. Pierce still has a few solid years left, but a large chunk of his current value comes from what he’s done and not what he still can do. Experience: 5, Ability: 4, Productivity: 4, Intangibles: 4, Potential: 2, Total: 19.
Kirk Hinrich — Mark my words, one of these days some team will trade for Hinrich claiming that it was seeking a veteran presence to balance out a youthful lineup. It almost happened this summer with Portland, but Hinrich remained in the Windy City. Because Ben Gordon has been moved, the Bulls clearly still have hopes and expectations for Hinrich. This much we know, he’s experienced, talented (particularly on defense) and possesses a boatload of intangibles. He, too, is on the back end of his career, though, which hurts him in the potential rating. Experience: 5, Ability: 3, Productivity: 3, Intangibles: 4, Potential: 2, Total: 17.
Julian Wright — One of just a few former Jayhawks with a sky-high ceiling in terms of potential. The word from New Orleans is that Wright will get the chance to start this season. Head coach Byron Scott has committed to starting the small forward for the entire preseason. After that he plans to evaluate how it went and move forward from there. Despite his two years in the league, Wright still has very little actual experience. What he does have is a freakish talent, a fresh body and incredible upside. It’s this year or never for Mr. Wright. Experience: 2, Ability: 4, Productivity: 2, Intangibles: 3, Potential: 4, Total: 15.
Drew Gooden — The experience is there and the numbers are, too. Despite bouncing around from franchise to franchise, Gooden has put up plenty of good numbers during his time in the NBA. He still has solid skills that would help any team out, but he’s not as young as he once was, which limits his potential. I’d expect a career year in Dallas this season but things might start to decline after that. Experience: 4, Ability: 3, Productivity: 3, Intangibles: 2, Potential: 2, Total: 14.
Darrell Arthur — It’s still early and maybe it’s nothing to panic about, but after landing Arthur in the 2008 NBA Draft, the Memphis Grizzlies sure have stockpiled a lot of big men after him. Typically, that’s not a good sign. But just because he does not fit in with Memphis doesn’t mean Darrell won’t get a shot. With his athleticism and skill set, Arthur is a budding NBA star waiting to emerge. It might not be this year, but my guess is that some day soon he’ll be a big-time pro player. That will push his experience and productivity numbers up and land him higher on this list. Experience: 1, Ability: 4, Productivity: 2, Intangibles: 3, Potential: 4, Total: 14.
Nick Collison — Facts are facts and in this case they seem to say that Collison will never be an NBA star. But can he be a guy with a 10-year career or near double-double averages? Sure. If given the chance. Thus far he’s gotten a pretty fair shake. He’s not the kind of player that will ever be featured but he’s started a lot, played a lot and delivered a little. Things probably won’t fluctuate much from the nice, steady line that has represented Collison’s career so far. But when it’s all said and done, he’ll likely be pretty pleased with what he delivered. Experience: 3, Ability: 3, Productivity: 2, Intangibles: 3, Potential: 2, Total: 13.
Brandon Rush — This one makes little sense to me. I really think Rush is going to be an excellent pro. But when I did the numbers, I just couldn’t justify elevating his PVR. His experience is small, his overall skills are limited and his productivity has yet to take off. If it does, his 2010 PVR could be considerably higher. Experience: 1, Ability: 3, Productivity: 2, Intangibles: 3, Potential: 3, Total: 12.
Darnell Jackson — No experience, little chance for serious playing time anytime soon and no numbers to speak of thus far. Jackson’s one of those guys who could go either way down the road. He’ll either be that guy you always see at the end of a bench or he’ll pop up out of nowhere and become a solid role player. His ability is high and his intangibles are great. He just won’t get much of a chance to do much this year. Experience: 0, Ability: 3, Productivity: 1, Intangibles: 3, Potential: 2, Total: 9.
Others to consider:
Jacque Vaughn — Like LaFrentz, Vaughn is a free agent without a team. Reports from his agent say that Vaughn is interested in playing again this season but he likely will be picky about what team he signs with. Because of that and his veteran presence and poise, his potential rating remains above water. Experience: 4, Ability: 3, Productivity: 1, Intangibles: 3, Potential: 1, Total: 12.
Raef LaFrentz — In Tuesday’s paper, our own Gary Bedore reported that LaFrentz’s career might very well be finished. Still, the free agent has somehow scraped together a decent 11-year career. Experience: 4, Ability: 2, Productivity: 2, Intangibles: 3, Potential: 0, Total: 11.
Billy Thomas — Thanks to his good size and deadly shot, Thomas has hung around the league for a number of years with a number of teams. Unfortunately for Billy T, the only number that might currently matter is his age. Experience: 2, Ability: 3, Productivity: 2, Intangibles: 2, Potential: 1, Total: 10.
Keith Langford — Langford, who recently inked a two-year deal to play in Russia, spent last season playing with the Italian League team Virtus Bologna, where he was the team’s leading scorer and helped lead them to the playoffs. Though he’s locked up for the next two seasons, Keith Freeze continues to work on his game and continues to pop up on NBA summer rosters. Experience: 1, Ability: 3, Productivity: 0, Intangibles: 2, Potential: 2, Total: 8.
Aaron Miles — Recently cut from the Atlanta Hawks, Miles probably has little shot of ever catching on with an NBA team. Experience: 0, Ability: 3, Productivity: 0, Intangibles: 3, Potential: 1, Total: 7.
Russell Robinson — The Cleveland Cavaliers have Russell Robinson listed as one of the choices in an on-line poll question that asks fans who the final roster spot should go to. Although no official decisions are tied to the poll, this clearly demonstrates that Russ-Rob’s NBA career has a pulse. Experience: 0, Ability: 3, Productivity: 0, Intangibles: 3, Potential: 1, Total: 7.
Comments
kcgregory (anonymous) says...
I realize they're close on your list, but I would much rather have Collison than Gooden. You should add a category for inexplicable decisions (make it a negative number). That should fix things nicely. I also think Rush has as much potential as Arthur. Overall though that's all splitting hairs. Thanks for NBA Jayhawk coverage.
October 14, 2009 at 9:39 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
kjhkcapn (anonymous) says...
I think you're majorly low-balling Pierce's 'potential.' You act like the best player in the league (arguably) is over the hill. He has the potential to LEAD teams to titles, yet he's at the same level as a number of players who will never even lead a team to mediocrity.
In any case, I think the 'potential' category is a mistake. First, you really have little to no idea how they'll do in the future. Second, the other rankings have to do with past/current statistics. Third, your scope of potential varies from player to player. If you're thinking about 'valuable,' you have to think of the Most Valuable Player award. It all comes down to current performance, not guessing at what someone might do in the future.
-Capn
October 14, 2009 at 9:48 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
d_prowess (anonymous) says...
OK, I am blown away that there was not a special blog solely dedicated to get the Jayhawk faithful involved in the poll on Cleveland's web page!!! I hope everyone clicks on the link and votes for him. He has a really nice lead already, but more votes wouldn't hurt. Come on Jayhawk Nation!!
October 14, 2009 at 9:49 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
suttonku (anonymous) says...
I seriously disagree with Rush's ratings, that's just awful. Probably the worst rating I have ever seen. Chalmers experience should be a 3 and Rush's potential should be a 5...Rush had the most potential out of all of the players in that class and he will show you this season when he starts next to Danny Granger. I am shocked by Rush's ranking and I think you should go back redo that one.
October 14, 2009 at 10:25 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
tennesseest (anonymous) says...
I know that I could probably look this up, but does anyone know how many guys Bill has put into the NBA? Including illinois...?
October 14, 2009 at 10:50 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
d_prowess (anonymous) says...
I think Mario's experience rating of 2 is OK. He has only played one year and while he started every game, he sill was just his first year. So a 2 is good there. As for Rush, I would definitely bump his potential up to a 4, not a 5 though. And I say that because it looks like he is getting his chance to start this year, but hasn't started consistently in the past. That is keeping him from a 5 in my mind. I would also say this is appropriate since you have Arthur at a 4.
I would also question giving Jackson a 2 in potential. I know we all love the guy, but he is clearly a bench guy and I don't think has shown us enough to have a potential other than a 1. Not saying it can't happen that he becomes a very solid role guy, but so far, I don't think the evidence points to that.
And finally, I would have Paul ahead of Mario only because I would bump his ability rating up from a 4 to a 5. He is getting old, but he still can carry a team when he needs to. That combined with the fact everyone would say he is more productive than Mario, who is listed at a 4, means he gets a 5 and thus barely takes the top spot.
Love this blog, really interesting rating formula!
October 14, 2009 at 11:28 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
OakvilleJHawk (anonymous) says...
Pardon my outrageous response but if he turns out to be everything we think he can be, Xavier Henry might have the biggest upside of all.
I know, I know....this is about NBA Hawks but supposing X comes out next year as a frosh lottery pick. Would that not be the first player in KU history to get off to such an auspicious start???
Any NBA GM could see his star potential at such a young age. It's a huge assumption, of course, but no other Hawk that I can remember has this big a shot to do this. Pearce, 3 yrs, Rush 3 yrs, Wright 2 yrs, Arthur 2 yrs all brfore going to "The Show"
We'll all get to see it pretty soon!!!!
October 14, 2009 at 12:42 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Asher87 (Asher Fusco) says...
kjhkcapn:
I'd argue potential is a vital part of a player's value. After all, teams aren't signing these guys because of what they did last year ... teams are looking to find players who can contribute in the future.
tennesseest:
Self's Illinois teams had some pretty decent NBA talent. I think this is a complete list:
• Deron Williams
• Luther Head
• Dee Brown
• James Augustine
• Roger Powell Jr.
• Brian Cook
• Frank Williams
• Robert Archibald
Not bad for three seasons.
October 14, 2009 at 4:24 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
suttonku (anonymous) says...
OK but Mario's experience is a 2 and he started every game...Julian Wright's experience is a 2 because........
October 14, 2009 at 8:55 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
matt_tait (Matt Tait) says...
Throughout the course of his two seasons in the NBA, Wright has started a handful of games, played in dozens more and experienced big-time playoff basketball.
He might not have been the focal point in any of that but just being around it lends a certain amount of experience.
Don't you agree?
October 14, 2009 at 9:08 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
suttonku (anonymous) says...
Well if Chalmers is a 2 in experience for starting 89 games including 7 playoff games then Wright's experience is 1 not 2...
October 14, 2009 at 10:43 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
suttonku (anonymous) says...
How many playoff games has Wright started? zero...Wright has started just 20 games in his entire career and in the 111 games he has played in he averaged around 11 minutes a game...Chalmers has started 89 games and averaged 32 minutes a game...Wright has virtually no experience compared to Chalmers...Wright is a classic case of a guy that needed one more year in college and the same goes for shady.
October 14, 2009 at 10:53 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
LAJayhawk (anonymous) says...
"It’s clear by now that Miami got a steal with this guy."
Yeah. That was clear the day of the draft.
October 14, 2009 at 11:15 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
trich424 (anonymous) says...
suttonku,
Wright has been around longer, been in more big games, etc. Chalmers has had 1 full season in the league, but his role on the Heat wasn't exactly the main focus. The two are about equal in experience. You are lending too much credence to the # of games started.
October 15, 2009 at 1:34 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
suttonku (anonymous) says...
Big games? how many big games has Wright been in? Chalmers has started more than 4 times the amount of games that Wright has and he has started 7 playoff games...If playoff games aren't big games then I dont know what is...The experience is not even close...Darnell Jackson started as many games as Wright did last season, one. Chalmers has way more experience starting and I think that is where experience is earned, not by how many years you sat on the bench. And Chalmers wasn't the focus of the team because of one Dwayne Wade...And by the way, Chalmers holds the record for most steals in one game for the Heat, not bad for a first year player.
October 15, 2009 at 10:54 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
matt_tait (Matt Tait) says...
Nobody's knocking Chalmers here.... Not in the least.
I think the thing some of us are trying to get across is that there's more to NBA experience than just starting games.
Starting is huge. And Mario has a ton of experience there already. But Julian has another year on him in terms of things like: The grind of an NBA travel schedule, scouting opponents, playing (and practicing) the NBA game, which is vastly different from college basketball.
Anyway, that's the point, not that Chalmers doesn't have great experience. He does. About as much as a one-year veteran can. But Julian has some experience that Mario doesn't... For now.
I guess we can agree to disagree.
October 15, 2009 at 11:11 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
100 (anonymous) says...
If the question is "which one has the most NBA value", without a doubt, right now it is Paul Pierce.
Yes, he might only have 2 or 3 seasons left.
But right now, he's already won an NBA championship & been crowned NBA finals MVP over Kobe Bryant (a couple years ago).
Why does that matter now? Because that Paul Pierce/ Boston name sells jerseys. And tons of them. You wanna make a retro Boston jersey? Better put PP's name on the back.
Those 2008 Boston champion logo t-shirt. Who won that for you again? Oh, that's right -- The one legged limper, Rocky Marciano, dressed as #34...
Those 18 banners, to which Paul is now helping to add to, sells tickets. That excites advertisers, which throw down lucrative deals, to put big $$$ games on TV.
Lastly put in the most important part of the equation -- that he is one of two key pieces (along with Garnett) on undeniably the most loaded team in the NBA -- and now your case is closed on how the Boston management is going loco over the mere formality, that with King Paul, they shall win another or two before he leaves the NBA for the greener pastures of Lawrence.
It's like the current Yankees, except now they've added Babe Ruth back to the lineup....
You're now gonna win a couple more of those nice shiny banners in the next three years on name alone -- and not the Memphis kind that get taken away -- paying people in this league is completely legal -- and heck even if Boston doesn't even win one, it's all about the revenue generated in huge east coast metropoli (plural) during the playoffs, watching Babe Ruth swing for the fences in game 7, picking himself up off the canvas, limping back onto the marquee floor, staggering to get back to the 3 point arc to hit a three before crawling back to the dugout crying like a baby, sipping more gatorade, getting ready to go do it all again in Kobe's face...
PP's stock is huge, his name is so much bigger & his current, his past, & future $$$ potential for a huge market team like Boston -- it is absolutely unmatched on this Jayhawk list.
Go to Boston & walk around for 5 minutes. Count how many $75 Paul Pierce jerseys you see. Now ask these '5'7" drunks who will win it all this year.
It's all about the economy baby. More Paul Pierce = Lots more money for Boston = lots more money for the NBA.
The kid is a flat out scorer, tough as nails defender, great passer, and plays smarter basketball by the day, even at 33. He is a 6'7" walking rusty iron barrel who can dribble a basketball & somehow legally bump & nudge backwards through 5 guys to score like no one else -- or waddle backwards like a duck & launch a rainbow three over Kobe's knee. The kid is absolute money. Absolute purist shot in basketball from 3 point range.
Unless your 6 year old granddaughter can beat you in a game of one on one, this is no contest, Jayhawk Nation -- it's Paul Pierce.
October 15, 2009 at 4:10 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
LAJayhawk (anonymous) says...
sutton is absolutely right.
The key here is playing time (and sutton, I'm taking your stats as accurate, I have not looked them up myself), not necessarily starts. Everyone who has ever played sports -- especially basketball -- knows that you can not have anymore valuable experience than playing in a game. Yes, being around the NBA atmosphere has some weight to it, but not that much if you are not actually wearing yourself out each night on the floor. I mean, by that logical, the towel boy who's been there for 15 years has a 5 in NBA experience.
Mario has played a ton of minutes, and in big games. Because he has one less year, he should be at least equal to Julian in experience for right now.
October 15, 2009 at 4:18 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
100 (anonymous) says...
Postscript: Yes, I know the author of this article claimed Paul Pierce as a given, but I've met too many KU fans who don't get what Paul really is, perhaps thinking he's about to die from a dislocated ankle/and or being 70 years old, so given the above "no mention of Paul" responses, I thought I'd reconfirm the obvious.
In short, I thought it was a good time to step in with....
"The Truth"
Rock Chalk
October 15, 2009 at 4:18 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )