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March 10, 2009
You asked for it.... And by you I mean the fans at Allen Fieldhouse last Saturday when Kansas University held off Texas, 83-73, to win its fifth-straight Big 12 regular season championship.
There he stood at the free throw line, late in the game, with the voltage of 16,000 smiles slapped across his face.
As KU junior Sherron Collins calmly sank a pair of free throws, the Fieldhouse faithful serenaded him with that famous chant: "One more year. One more year."
It was not a declaration of how many seasons of eligibility he has remaining, rather a plea for the bowling ball point guard that Jayhawk fans have grown to love to stick around for one more season.
If he does — and if sophomore center Cole Aldrich stays with him — whoa, what a team the Jayhawks would have next year.
But that's for a different blog. This one, as the title and logo suggest, is about the NBA. So instead of verbalizing just how unbelievable a lineup made up of all of this year's key players plus Thomas Robinson, Elijah Johnson and perhaps John Wall or Lance Stephenson would be, we'll briefly analyze the decision that Collins will have on his plate after his junior season.
Should he stay or should he go?
Unlike many who have come before him in the past few years, such a decision might not actually be up to Collins. Sure, he's the guy with the final say, but it's amazing how a few words from NBA scouts can sway the opinion of even the most confident basketball players.
The way I see it, Collins will — and should — get a shot in the NBA. At 5-foot-11, 200 pounds, he's not the ideal size for an NBA point guard. His history of injuries doesn't help either. But the guy can play. He's tough, smart and gifted and, having grown up in the Windy City, knows how to play the game even against guys who are bigger and better than he is.
Getting a shot won't be the problem. After all, guys like UConn's Khalid El-Amin (34th pick by Chicago in 2000), Michigan State's Mateen Cleaves (14th pick by Detroit in 2000) and Jameer Nelson (20th pick by Denver in 2004) all got chances and they're all about the same size as Collins.
For my money, Nelson is the only one of that group on par with Collins in the talent department. He's also the only one of the three still playing in the league. The other two were more floor generals than scorers, more directors than stars.
Getting a chance shouldn't be a problem. But when that chance comes might be. According to the NBA Draft web site draftexpress.com, which constantly monitors player movement and mock drafts, Collins isn't even on the board for the 2009 Draft. That's a good sign for KU fans. An even better sign is that, according to draftexpress.com, he's not even a first-rounder after his senior year.
As of March 9, 2008, draftexpress.com had Collins being selected with the seventh pick of the second round (No. 37 overall) in the 2010 NBA Draft.
With that positioning on the NBA radar screen, Collins would be crazy to even think about leaving after this season.
Of course, because of NCAA rules being what they are, he'd actually be crazy to not think about it.
Underclassmen are given two chances to throw their names into the NBA draft pool. Players are allowed to attend the summer camps and pre-draft workouts, talk with scouts and executives about where they stand and gather information about their stock. As long as they pull their name out of the draft by the deadline, they're allowed to return to school to play out their remaining eligibility. Because Collins has not done this yet, he might as well do it after this season. It can't hurt him to find out where he's at and what he needs to work on.
Armed with that kind of knowledge, but also forced to face the reality that is life as a 5-11, 200-pound aspiring NBA point guard, Collins likely would return to KU for his senior season a better player. How is beyond me? But something tells me he'd find a way.
The real question I'm dying to find out the answer to is this: Why is North Carolina's Ty Lawson — 6-foot, 195 pounds — considered far and away to be a better pro prospect than Collins?
Lawson is good. Real good. He's great with the ball, faster than all get-out and has an incredible feel for the game. But he's not near the scorer or shooter that Collins is and I'm not sure he's as tough.
Somehow, though, he's considered a lottery pick in this year's draft.
Until the picks are made, it's all speculation. But sometimes it just doesn't make sense.
Comments
TtownHawk (anonymous) says...
Someone will get Collins as a steal just like Chalmers if indeed Collins doesn't go in the first round, whether that be after this year or his senior season.
March 10, 2009 at 8:19 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
zissou (anonymous) says...
Lawson may be faster than all get-out, but he's not faster than Sherron. Roy's system just allows Ty to get out and run more than Bill's allows Collins. I'd love to see Sherron come back, but you also must consider that it's going to be a fight to get into the league one way or another. It seems to me that it's going to come down to Sherron's decision to take up that fight now or later.
March 10, 2009 at 8:48 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
mcorti (anonymous) says...
Chalmers is a very different player then Collins. Someone DID get a steal in Chalmers b/c he can run the point well, plays good defense, and makes clutch shots. Collins is a different player. To be honest, im not sure how he would stack up in the NBA. Im sure someone will take a chance on him, and I think someone should. But I dont think we need to think Collins is a first round pick or even an early second round pick at this point. He is a dynamite ncaa athlete, but that doesnt translate into a good NBA player all the time.
March 10, 2009 at 9:36 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
d_prowess (anonymous) says...
Zissou, I disagree that it will be a fight either now or later for Collins to get in the league. As Tait points out, he would not even be drafted this year if he was to come out (according to the projections). So there is no fight if there is no opponent! Now if he stays and gets drafted after his senior year, then the fight to "stay" in the league will begin.
And I agree that Chalmers and Collins are vastly different players. I am not sure about Collins defense and I definitely wonder about his IQ at times on the court (none of which concerned me in Chalmers). However, I think some of those questions are coming up simply because of the team he is playing on right now. If you surround Collins with the players from last year (or maybe next year?) he would probably be able to take some more chances on defense and hopefully feel less pressure to force things overall.
Saying all that though, he does have to "test the waters" this year because, as Tait mentions, there is absolutely zero downside to it. Honestly, since you can do this once without penalty for returning to school, there shouldn't be a junior out there that doesn't do this unless they have used up their chance a previous year.
I still would bet that he stays for senior year (do they have this on CentSports.com?!)
March 10, 2009 at 10:05 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
johnzo223 (anonymous) says...
Hypothetically, let's say Collins tests the waters and enters the draft, either Wall or Stephenson commits to KU, and Collins decides he's not ready for the draft. We would be over the scholarship limit by one, wouldn't we? Even if Morningstar switches to be a walk-on, we would be over the limit. What then? Any ideas as to what Self has up his sleeve?
March 10, 2009 at 10:09 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
stupidmichael (anonymous) says...
Bill Self will find a way...
March 10, 2009 at 10:37 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
rockchalkin54 (anonymous) says...
I think we are already one over the limit if both Cole and Sherron stay. Even without Wall or Stephenson committing.
March 10, 2009 at 11:05 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
soswalt4 (anonymous) says...
I don't think so 54.
March 10, 2009 at 11:16 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
burntpuma (anonymous) says...
I didn't see Collins or Aldrich on the draft express site. Whats the deal?
March 10, 2009 at 11:25 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
jnewell (Jesse Newell) says...
soswalt4 — Correct me if I'm wrong. KU has two scholarships available. Robinson, Johnson, Withey + Wall/Stephenson= 4 scholarships. If Cole and Sherron stay, KU would be two over the limit. That's why Wall/Stephenson probably won't come if Collins and Aldrich stay.
March 10, 2009 at 11:31 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
BleedCandB (anonymous) says...
"There he stood at the free throw line, late in the game, with the voltage of 16,000 smiles slapped across his face."
I believe there were (at a minimum) 16,300 smiles in AFH on this day. Come on Tait, get it straight.
March 10, 2009 at 11:46 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
whitechocolate (anonymous) says...
Matt or Jesse,
Do you remember what Chalmers stock was before the NCAA tourney last year? I think he was either late 2nd round or unlisted on many mock-ups.
Hitting the shot not only put him on the draft map, but in the first round on everyone's list. Unfortunately, he ended up going later but it has seemed to work out well for him.
Collins has been playing well this past few weeks and I wonder if leading KU to the B12 Tourney Championship plus a big performance in the NCAAs might do the same for him. I'm not talking about a NC, but a few big games and slipping KU into the elite eight might be enough to get him noticed.
March 10, 2009 at 11:48 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
cklarock (anonymous) says...
Sherron is going to play for money, whether it's in the NBA or overseas. If I were in his shoes, the questions would be, "how bad does my family need that money right now?" and "Could I make a lot more money if I wait a year?"
Sherron, we'd all love you to play for KU another year, but most importantly, we want you to do what's right for yourself and your family. We wish you success for your whole life. You're a Jayhawk for life.
March 10, 2009 at 11:58 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
caddie733 (anonymous) says...
I love Sherron Collins, but if you need help as to why Lawson is being dubbed a better draft prospect, you really shouldn't be writing articles on the draft to begin with.
1. Lawson is a proven commodity. This is not Sherron's fault, but this is only his first year starting. Lawson has been the starting PG since day one. Sherron, even now, is not really a traditional PG. He and Taylor play more dual roles as combo guards (the type of guys that Self likes). Therefore, Collins' ability to be an effective PG in the NBA is more of an unknown than it is with Lawson.
2. Assist/TO ratio. I've been harping on this since day one. This might be one of the most important stats when evaluating a PG. Collins: 1.52 (his lowest ever), Lawson: 3.32 (his highest ever). Those numbers don't lie, that is a substantial difference when evaluating a PG.
3. Lawson is not near the scorer that Collins is - this is false. Collins: 18.3 ppg, Lawson: 15.9 ppg. However, this is a little misleading since Collins plays more minutes. Look at points scored per minute - Collins: 0.524, Lawson: 0.541, this means, Lawson would actually score more if playing the same minutes as Collins. Also, it needs to be considered that Lawson is playing on a team that features 5 double-digit scorers - he is having to share the scoring load, whereas, Collins is being asked to carry it - that's a big difference.
4. Lawson is not near the shooter that Collins is - this is also false. Let's look at the 3 main percentages - fg, ft, 3pt. Collins - 42.4, 80.0, 38.2. Lawson - 53.8, 80.9, 46.7...am I missing something?
Seriously, I am not trying to come across as a UNC fan. But, I have said since day one that Sherron will not be a first rounder. I don't know if there is a big enough difference between him and Lawson to make Lawson a lottery pick, however, it is foolish to say you can't understand why Lawson is the better NBA prospect right now.
Collins can improve his PG stock by staying another year and showing he can run a team under control.
He is not going to hurt his stock by staying (barring injury), so he might as well stay and try to improve, while winning another championship.
March 10, 2009 at 12:09 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
matt_tait (Matt Tait) says...
Didn't know we had a draft guru of our own in the house.
That's good analysis, caddie73...
I'll ask you this, though, numbers and stats and all of that are great for arguments, but, if it came down to it, which guy -- Lawson or Collins -- would you want to take the big shot in college, NBA or on the dang playground?
That's what I mean by Collins being a better scorer/shooter.
Lawson might very well be the better option with the ball in his hands because of what he could/would create for others, but if it comes down to picking a guy to take the shot, Collins is a far better prospect than Lawson.
Lawson's percentages might be higher but that could be because he hasn't taken nearly the number of shots as Collins:
Sherron Collins --- FGs: 188-443; Three-pointers: 68-178
Ty Lawson --- FGs: 154-286; Three-pointers: 42-90
Tomato-Tomahto, I guess. Both are great college players, I just don't see that much of a difference between them when it comes to projecting their pro careers. Lawson might be the better option but is the difference between the two really summed up by saying one is lottery guy this year and the other is a second-rounder next year?
March 10, 2009 at 12:24 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
caddie733 (anonymous) says...
I believe being a better shooter/scorer is not the same as being the better "clutch" player - which is probably the word you were looking for.
And basically, my main point was that you made a bold statement without anything to back it up, factually.
Your shooting percentage analysis doesn't hold much weight either...both have shot enough for their percentages to reflect their shooting ability - should we say one is worse, simply because they are more efficient? That is like saying the guy that takes 10 hours to do something at work as opposed to the guy that takes 5 hours is working twice as hard because he worked twice as long. Efficiency should count for something.
Also, if you read my post completely, you would see that I said there probably shouldn't be that big of a difference between the two ("I don't know if there is a big enough difference between him and Lawson to make Lawson a lottery pick"), but I do believe Lawson is rightfully being scouted as the better nba point guard prospect (i emphasize point guard because we are not talking about the guy who will make the shot on the playground, we are talking about the guy better prepared to run your team).
I never claimed to be a draft guru, however, it just shocked me that someone who writes about sports can be so uninformed. I believe when trying to decide on an NBA prospect, impartiality is the way to go. If scouts and teams weren't impartial, maybe Portland would draft Collins with their 1st round pick...but I bet they won't.
March 10, 2009 at 12:41 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
caddie733 (anonymous) says...
One other thing, if a draft prospect was judged based on this question:
"Who would you want to take the big shot in college, NBA or on the dang playground?"
I don't think Mario Chalmers would have slipped to the 2nd round, in fact, he should have be scouted as the better prospect than Rose. Mario proved time and time again his ability to hit the big shot (and hit the biggest of all shots)...but this goes to my point that draft prospects are based on more than their ability to be "clutch."
March 10, 2009 at 12:50 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
matt_tait (Matt Tait) says...
I completely understand where you're coming from and meant nothing but good things by the draft guru comment... You've obviously done your homework.
Remember, though, this isn't an article as it would appear in the paper, it's a blog on the internet. And blogs, by nature, are born from opinions, thoughts and perceptions of the writer. The facts are this: Lawson does some things better than Collins and Collins does other things better than Lawson. Because of that, I believe Collins is on par with Lawson. That does not make me uniformed. Sorry.
Efficiency should count for something but it shouldn't be used to build a case against someone. Lawson is "more efficient" because his team and the talent around him allows him to be. Same as it was when Kirk Hinrich shot 50 percent from three-point land one year at KU. Was Hinrich a 50 percent three-point shooter? Absolutely not. But he only took 90 shots or something and usually took them when he was wide open and in the best position to make them. Those factors directly influenced his final percentage, just the way Lawson's have influenced his.
March 10, 2009 at 12:53 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
matt_tait (Matt Tait) says...
The "big shot" element was only one part of the equation. One area --- of many up for debate --- where I feel Collins is far and away better than Lawson.
March 10, 2009 at 12:55 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
caddie733 (anonymous) says...
In trying to understand the shooting percentage theory, do you not believe that someone who has taken 90 shots and has made 45 is not a 50% shooter (maybe not for their career, but for that time and sample size)? When has one taken enough shots to make their shooting percentage "real"? Are we to say that shooting percentage needs to be adjusted because Player A was in a better position to make a shot than Player B? Or can we turn it around the other way and say that Player B is prone to taking more "bad" shots than Player A, which is why Player A seems to only shoot when they are "open"?
It's not like Lawson is 5 for 10 on the year from 3-point land, while he has shot about half as much as Collins, he still shoots enough for his percentage to reflect who he is (this year). He played on talented teams his first 2 years, and his 3-point % was not as good, so it is not simply the talent around him allowing him to shoot better.
I don't mean to say you can not express an opinion, but I was simply replying to why Lawson is a better prospect than Collins, right now. I believe that I have provided many more arguments in my favor and that fans of a certain team or player can have their opinions clouded, which makes them come across as uninformed.
I hope Collins has a great career in the NBA, but if I were picking a PG right now, I would have to go with Lawson. The biggest difference for me is the ability to run a team and the assist:to ratio. Lawson gives you 2 to 3 extra possessions a game, which is enough to not need someone to hit the "big" shot.
March 10, 2009 at 1:06 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
matt_tait (Matt Tait) says...
I'd take Lawson, too.
I only threw the last part on there to illustrate that I don't think Collins is as far behind Lawson --- in overall talent --- as the draft projections seem to indicate.
I could be wrong.
March 10, 2009 at 1:13 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
caddie733 (anonymous) says...
It's nice to have lively sports debate on here...I'm shocked that I wasn't vilified for saying Lawson is a better prospect than Collins.
Normally, any criticism of the team/coach/player is cause for an uproar on here, as if KU never does anything wrong. I think you can support a team while being critical of them.
March 10, 2009 at 1:19 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
tulsahawkfan (anonymous) says...
caddie, I think he's saying when you take far less shots (on a well-balanced scoring team), those shots are usually great ones. Wide open three attempts will raise your average more than say guarded ones eight feet behind the line a la the ou game. Carrying a team and being "the man" does affect the percentage a bit. All said, I do agree that Lawson will be the better pro mostly due to the already brought up assist to turnover ratio. Collins needs to improve that drastically before he can dream of being a first rounder. I think another year with a much improved team next year will be the ticket.
March 10, 2009 at 1:28 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Yahweh (anonymous) says...
Much like if Brady Morningstar had to actually create his own shots and was shooting twice as much. His mind-boggling 3% would drop rapidly without other options like Collins and Tyshawn and Reed around.
March 10, 2009 at 1:38 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
tulsahawkfan (anonymous) says...
Read my mind Yahweh. Exactly what I was thinking after I posted.
March 10, 2009 at 1:39 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
matt_tait (Matt Tait) says...
That's a much better example than Hinrich because it's current.
But I agree, caddie733, the lively debate was fun. That's the entire point of these blogs -- to get people talking.
Carry on....
March 10, 2009 at 2 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
jayhawktownie (anonymous) says...
lawson scoring more points per minute is not exactly a great comparison considering north carolina plays at a significantly faster pace than we do.
the majority of lawson's three's come in transition or off kick-outs. he's not doing a lot of shooting off the dribble with hands in his face. that's a testament to unc's balance.
they are both great players but i look at it this way. put collins in lawson's place on unc's roster and they don't miss a beat. you probably couldn't even tell a difference because he would do the exact same things that lawson does in their system. however, put lawson on our roster and i don't think he is the type of player that can be option #1. no way he takes or makes those shots at the end of the OU game.
March 10, 2009 at 2:26 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
matt_tait (Matt Tait) says...
jayhawktownie...
That take is still subjective and up for debate, but I think it illustrates my point better than anything I've said before.
I agree.
March 10, 2009 at 2:28 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
pmohr13 (anonymous) says...
Here's a question, how does Tyler Hansbrough win the national player of the year last year over Beasley, but then Blake Griffin is considered the outright favorite this year?
2008 stats
Hansbrough - 22.6 points 10.2 rebounds
Beasley - 26.2 points, 12.4 rebounds
difference - 3.6 points, 2.2 rebounds
2009 stats
Hansbrough - 21.1 points, 8.1 rebounds
Griffin - 22.1 points, 14.2 rebounds
Difference - 1.0 point, 6.1 rebounds
I just don't understand how Hansbrough can win last year but Griffin is pretty much the outright favorite this year when the difference in stats are basically the same for both years.
March 10, 2009 at 2:31 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
LAJayhawk (anonymous) says...
caddie733,
Very good use of the statistics to make your point (I'm a bit of a statistics nerd myself), and I do actually agree that Lawson is a better NBA prospect right now. However, you need to remember that statistics can be misleading.
First, as to the asist to turnover ratio in your number 2: there is a big difference between the Collins and Lawson's #s and it's easy to say Lawson far exceeds Collins (and, for the record, I do believe he's a more proficient passer), but that number doesn't really reflect what occurs on the floor. Lawson is surrounded by top scoring, experienced talent who finish well. Collins is not. Collins played with very inexperienced players all year who, while certainly improving leaps and bounds, have not been great at finishing plays. Assists require teammates who can score, and score well. And you actually pointed out in number 3 why the two numbers are a bit misleading:
"...it needs to be considered that Lawson is playing on a team that features 5 double-digit scorers - he is having to share the scoring load, whereas, Collins is being asked to carry it - that's a big difference."
It does make a huge difference, especially in assists. A large portion of Collins turnover numbers came when he was trying to score, not to pass, as is required of him on this team. Also, because he is being asked to carry the load, opposing defenses can apply much more pressure on him than they perhaps would on Lawson. This is because KU has less scoring threats than UNC. And, again, since UNC has 5 double-digit scorers, that means they have guys who can score proficiently. Put Collins on UNC and his A/T ratio easily passes 2 to 1 and probably comes closer to 3 to 1.
As to the shooting percentages, several people have already touched on this, but it does make a difference how the shots come out of the offense. Again, if we look at your #3 and point out that Collins is required to carry the load, the we, therefore, have to remember he has defenses keying on him to a far greater degree than Lawson. I don't have time to look it up, but I'm guessing Michael Jordan's shooting percentages increased when he got more help (i.e. the year they went 70-12). Open shots will go in much more often than defended shots. And, no, shooting percentages don't need to reflect this. That's why we watch games.
Finally, you said the following: "That is like saying the guy that takes 10 hours to do something at work as opposed to the guy that takes 5 hours is working twice as hard because he worked twice as long."
This is a false analogy. Collins did work twice as hard because he took and made twice as many shots (not quite 2x, but you get the point). Your point was that Lawson has taken enough to prove his effeciency, but this analogy doesn't work.
Ultimately, though, I agree that Lawson is a better prospect, but I also think Collins is underrated.
March 10, 2009 at 2:53 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
LAJayhawk (anonymous) says...
Great posts, though, caddie733. You know your stuff, and this is a very interesting discussion.
And, thanks to Matt Tait. You and Jesse Newell have great blogs.
March 10, 2009 at 2:55 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
d_prowess (anonymous) says...
I think Yahweh's post does a better job of what I was trying to say really early on in this blog as to why I think it would be better for Collins to stay another year. Despite this teams improvement, Collins is still working with a young supporting cast which causes him to force things more than Lawson probably has to with the experienced group at UNC. Therefore, I think Collins might be seen, analytically, as a better player next year when his supporting cast is a bit better.
Also, I think it is crazy to think Collins would ever decide to leave early and play overseas, instead of staying at KU another year. Obviously he would want to take care of his family, but playing overseas will never get him to the NBA in the way that getting drafted out of KU as a senior would. If this was to happen, it would only be because he had bad draft info and thought he would be drafted!
March 10, 2009 at 2:58 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
d_prowess (anonymous) says...
oh yeah and... Isn't this the best time of year!!!!!!!
March 10, 2009 at 3:07 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
KULightsOut (anonymous) says...
By far.. Late Feb- NBA Draft best time of year, can't argue against that to a sports fan!
March 10, 2009 at 3:36 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
d_prowess (anonymous) says...
And to add more to the debate, Lawson was named the ACC Player of the Year...
March 10, 2009 at 4:25 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
justinump20 (anonymous) says...
Unfortunatly I think we will gain a scholarship when Quintrell Thomas transfers
March 10, 2009 at 4:48 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
LAJayhawk (anonymous) says...
I can't believe I misstated the Bulls record from that 95-96 team. They were 72-10 not 70-12. Shame on me.
By the way, I looked up Jordan's stats, and it appears his FG% pretty much stayed constant through the seasons -- generally in the area of 50%. His 3 point numbers, on the other hand, changed dramatically when he got talent around him. In his first 4 seasons, the highest he shot was 18% and only 27% his fifth year. In that 95-96 season, however, he shot 43%, and in that season he took the second most attempts of his career (260, the most came the following year when he took 297 and made 38%).
http://www.basketball-reference.com/p...
The point is when you have talent around you, the defense must respect that and you will undoubtedly get better, less-guarded attempts. And better attempts leads to more makes and a better percentage.
March 10, 2009 at 5:02 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
LAJayhawk (anonymous) says...
On more thing on Jordan,
At the time when Jordan's 3 point numbers started to get better coincides directly with when the Bulls drafted Scottie Pippen (87-88). Jordan's 3-point-shooting numbers increased remarkably at that point, and generally improved by large margins every year after.
I don't think that's a coincidence.
March 10, 2009 at 5:07 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
BannerforKirk (anonymous) says...
Out of curiosity, does someone have answers to the scholarship questions? I believe we get one back next year, right? From the probation? Is that what gets us 2 available or does that make 3 available? I"m sure this is all up somewhere for me, but I hoped one or two experts (like the people working for the paper) would have that information available.
March 10, 2009 at 6:03 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
kushaw (anonymous) says...
Caddie: I guess "All GM's" are the mastermind's of perfect NBA analysis. History tells us something and I've seen your your statistical analysis, but statistical analysis doesn't always relate to playing well in the league. Let's look at Roy Williams point guards during his tenure.
Adonis Jordan
Calvin Rayford
Jacque Vaughn
Ryan Robertson (Brief Tenure)
Boschee
Hinrich
Aaron Miles
Raymond Felton
Ty Lawson
The only legitimate NBA player out of the bunch is Hinrich. Vaughn is good back-up, but should have never been taken with the 16th pick. Felton is a "NBA Bust" that will soon be reserved to a back-up role and IMHO Ty Lawson is a poor version of Raymond Felton. When I watched that KU/UNC game last year I watched a completely frustrated TY Lawson vs both Chalmers and Collins. Yes, I do think they are similar point guards, but Ty Lawson has never had to take a team completely on his shoulders like Sherron Collins has during this season. Yes, Ty Lawson is shooting 49 percent from the 3 pt range. It's a great stat, but how many teams are actually developing a "Game Plan" to stop Ty Lawson from behind the arc? The answer is nobody. Ty Lawson is getting his points and creating his plays much the same way Raymond Felton did before him, but that doesn't translate to NBA. Just ask Raymond Felton and pretty much everybody from the list above. Penetrating and making plays is his trademark and it's a great trademark to have. I agree with you Caddie on your analysis and it makes sense, but is Lawson far and above Collins? No. Is Collins far and above Lawson? No. If I was a GM, would I take either Lawson or Collins in the first round? It's debateable, but I would draft Collins any day of the week over Lawson.
Agree to disagree, but I've seen every UNC game this year and I've seen every game KU has played and I'll take Collins. If you develop a game plan like KU had last year, and play defense the "Self Way" then you can shut a guy like Lawson down. If you take away his driving ability then you are eliminating his entire game. Lawson has no mid-range game and I believe Collins has a better overall game. Collins has actually proved he can play a number of different ways. He can come off the bench, he can start, be a role player, be a distributor (his first two years), and he can be the "Go-To" guy on a team. I know you mentioned the A/TO ratio, but that is misleading stat. Yes, Collins has shown to be out of control at times, but for two years he showed about much poise and control a point guard should have. Now that his role has changed, the one stat he is measured in terms of being a good point guard is A/TO ratio. I would gurantee that if Collins A/TO ratio was the same or better than Lawson's that KU has 3 more losses on their schedule then what they do. Statistics are great, but they don't always tell the whole story.
March 10, 2009 at 6:04 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Hawksboy88 (anonymous) says...
Jonzo,
First off, Bill is smarter then that he wouldnt go over scholarship limit.
Secondly, Bill would not sign Wall and Stephenson until he knows for sure if Sherron is leaving.
Thirdly, Im guessing Wall or Stephenson will not have chosen a school by the timethe draft comes around.
No worries.
Andhonestly you arent looking at Sherrons other important role.
Fatherhood
I bet the main reason he would enter the draft is because he might want to get money for his family.
Anyways all in all Sherron is going to stay.
No worries. Again.
Rock Chalk Jayhawk
March 10, 2009 at 6:05 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
yovoy (anonymous) says...
i love numbers and stats. they make the game more than "just" a game. there's no stat for "tough", and i think lawson IS faster than sherron, but i'd rather (try to) defend lawson than sherron. sherron's toughness would have to be measured on the mohs scale of (mineral) hardness. sure you can measure and quantify the 2 all you want, but sherron has the stuff that doesn't show up in the stats. not that it makes him more pro-ready, it just makes him preferable to me on this level.
the kid scores tough baskets, plays defense (like his coach asks/demands), and i'm not sure lawson can do the same. besides the asists:turnover ratio, the most telling stat between the two is:
Sherron Collins --- FGs: 188-443; Three-pointers: 68-178
Ty Lawson --- FGs: 154-286; Three-pointers: 42-90
if lawson can keep his percentages where they are when his attempts are up, then he's a more proven commodity, but i'd have to see it.
the more you have the ball, the more opportunities you're going to turn it over. sherron plays in a system that can score in the half court, lawson plays in a north-and-south system - easier to assist a scorer when it's 3 on 1 than it is when it's 5-on-5. i'd like to see a stat on both of them in the half court and both in transition.
sherron plays w/ younger guys, with guys that can score (which leads to/allows for better shot selection), for a coach that knows how to change and prepare his game plan on-the-fly (the other coach not so much), and in a system that values defense FIRST. sure a kid that can score, can score in a system that it designed to win mostly by scoring more. a kid that can score in a variety of ways, is tough, and can play defense is a more "complete" player. i know that "completeness" doesn't matter in the league. if i was an exec, i would take sherron before ty, but i wouldn't turn either away if i had a chance at either.
i honestly don't know if either of them has much of a chance at the next level in this country. i wouldn't mind if they both got a shot at it though.
March 10, 2009 at 6:18 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
kushaw (anonymous) says...
LA Jayhawk also makes a great point. There is no denying that UNC is a good team, much the way KU was last year. They have talent at every spot. When Hansbrough is getting double teamed and he kicks it out to Ellington, who swings to Green with a pump fake 3 and then swings to Lawson for an open 3 pointer then he better damn well knock down 44 or 45 out of 90 3's. I think La Jayhawk makes a great point and I didn't get a chance to read those comments before I posted.
Let's compare 4 point guards
Jameer Nelson Sr. Year- 32 min pg, 20 ppg, 47.5 FG%, 39.5 3pt%, 80%FT, 5.3 Ast
Sherron Collins 34 min pg,18.3 ppg, 43 FG%, 38 3pt%, 80%FT, 5.0 Ast
Ty Lawson 29 min pg, 15.9 ppg, 54 FG%, 47 3pt%, 81%FT, 6.5 Ast
Raymond Felton 32 min pg, 12.1 ppg, 46 FG%, 45 3 pt%, 70%FT, 6.9 Ast
Again Statistics don't tell the whole story, but I would have never back in 2005 taken Raymond Felton with the 5th and the same can be true about Ty Lawson as a mid-First Rounder. As some other posters stated above, I would also compare Collins to more of a Jameer Nelson than to someone like Ty Lawson. I guess if we're going to compare numbers, I like to compare the numbers of two solidified professionals and their college numbers to two potential NBA players who are playing in college. Like I said, I understand what you're saying Caddie, but I just don't see it with Lawson. I agree I don't think there is much difference NOW between Collison and Lawson, but I think the upside is a lot more vast with Collins. Also, I don't get the injury thing. Both have had their share of injuries and if Lawson misses the ACC tournament then they will have missed about the same amount of games in their college careers. Just a side note.
March 10, 2009 at 6:29 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Sparko (anonymous) says...
Collins has the "it" factor. He has two of the greatest hustle plays I have ever seen, is much quicker than he appears, does not get star treatment by the refs, and has taken a team short of talent to the league championship. He is one of the greatest Jayhawks to my mind--and that is a pretty lofty perch. He is tough and has the greatest competitor's heart I have ever seen. He willed Kansas to the Big XII Tourney Championship and to the national title. The man would chew off his leg to win. He took over the Oklahoma game like no Jayhawk since Manning or maybe Stallworth. Lawson? Not even a serious comparison. One runs Roy's secondary break offense. The other punches through triple teams for Self.
March 10, 2009 at 7:33 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
chanutejayhawk (anonymous) says...
Realistically, I'd say Sherron is gone after this year. If we could get everyone back for next year, though, watch out! We wouldn't sneak up on anyone!
March 10, 2009 at 9:12 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
chalmers4thetie (anonymous) says...
i talked to sherron and he said he is staying one more year
March 10, 2009 at 10:12 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
cap10d (anonymous) says...
Like Ive been saying all along , Sherron will be back. He will improve his stock and be a late 1st round pick after next season.
March 10, 2009 at 10:15 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )