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June 3, 2009
Well, that’s it.
Thanks to the complete meltdown of the supporting cast around King James, we now know that a former Jayhawk will not be winning an NBA title this season, therein ending the Jayhawks’ streak at two in a row.
I can’t say this is all that surprising. As soon as Round 1 came and went, it became quite apparent that Cleveland's Darnell Jackson probably represented the Jayhawks' best hope of winning a title this season.
What is surprising is the play of LeBron James’ teammates in that series against Orlando. Props to the Magic for taking care of business in that one. They clearly were the better team. The way the rest of the Cavs performed — save for sporadic shining moments from Delonte West, Mo Williams and Daniel Gibson — would they have been that much worse off giving Jackson some minutes? Sure doesn’t seem like it.
Anyway, what’s done is done. That loss is in the past and there’s no time like the present to start thinking about the future.
With that in mind, here’s a handicapper’s hunch at the chances each former Jayhawk has of winning it all heading into the 2009-2010 season.
Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics
I don’t see any way you could rank someone ahead of Pierce when talking about former Jayhawks with the best chance to win it all next season. Sure the Celtics were bounced in the second round this year and, yes, they will have to compete with LeBron and whoever the Cavs decide to add in the offseason (they have to add someone, don’t they?), but Pierce and Co. will be getting Kevin Garnett back next season and there’s still a big part of me that believes we might be looking at a Lakers-Celtics rematch in the Finals if KG didn’t go down this year. Odds: 4-1
Mario Chalmers, Miami Heat
Here’s the deal... I’m calling this the year of the Heat. That roster is loaded with talent and has a perfect combination of youth and experience without being too young or too old. Dwyane Wade is as good as it gets and Jermaine O’Neal, Udonis Haslem and the rest of the crew all have been there and done that. The thing that will take this team to the next level is the fact that budding superstars Chalmers and Michael Beasley will enter the season with a year of experience under their belts. That bodes well for Miami, as does the direction of the legendary Pat Riley. Odds: 6-1
Darnell Jackson, Cleveland Cavaliers
Whether he plays or not, Darnell figures to be in good position to challenge for the title again next season. There’s also an outside shot that his minutes will increase — second year in the league, more familiar with the system, a year bigger, faster and stronger. But don’t expect him to play a lot. He’ll be lucky to be sit on the bench, push the starters in practice and pick up spot duty from time to time. If the Cavs add someone in the offseason to complement LeBron, the odds will go up. Right now, though, the Cavs are too incomplete for me to see them winning it all. Odds: 7-1
Drew Gooden, Jacque Vaughn, San Antonio Spurs
There’s no part of me that thinks the Spurs will be as “off” next year as they were for most of this season. The biggest reason for that is I just can’t see this team being hit by so many injuries for a second straight season. They’ll get Manu Ginobli back, and he’s really the key to this team. Tony Parker’s still young, Tim Duncan’s still Tim Duncan and, if they want him to, Drew Gooden can become a force. Of course, there’s probably just as much of a chance that Gooden will be in a different uniform next season (same goes for the aging Vaughn, really) but, right now, the Spurs should figure into the mix in the ultra-competitive West. Odds: 9-1
Kirk Hinrich, Chicago Bulls
The Bulls were the feel-good story of the playoffs in the early going this season. If they want to get back there, they’re going to need a much stronger start than they got this season. I’m a believer in the Bulls’ ability. Young guns Derrick Rose and Ben Gordon are incredible talents and the athletic front line of Tyrus Thomas, Joakim Noah and Luol Deng is as active and impressive as any its age. The big questions here are: What does this team do with trade-deadline addition Brad Miller and where does Hinrich fit into their plans? He proved his value in the playoffs by being the kind of guard who could spell either Rose or Gordon off the bench. But will they be willing to pay all three guys? That’s the only thing keeping this team from jumping the Spurs. Odds: 10-1
Julian Wright, New Orleans Hornets
I refuse to believe that a team led by Chris Paul is not a contender. That guy simply is too talented and has too much drive and desire to not be a factor. That said, Paul needs a little more help than he had this season to make it happen. It starts with a healthy Tyson Chandler and ends with the NBA Draft. The Hornets have to add an impact player — preferably a scoring guard — if they want to take that next step. David West’s a nice player, Peja Stojakovic is solid and Chandler, when healthy, can be terrific. That’s a pretty good nucleus but the Hornets need more. According to Wright’s Twitter page the day after the team lost Game 5 to the Nuggets in the first round, the former KU standout is prepared to go into “beast-mode” this summer. We’ll see if that equates to more playing time for the former lottery pick. Odds: 13-1
Brandon Rush, Indiana Pacers
As our own Gary Bedore wrote last week, Brandon Rush is ready for a prime-time role. Question is.... Are the Pacers? This team was as hot as any down the stretch, but they still lack a proven inside game and remain young and unproven on the wing. Danny Granger and Rush could be a potent one-two scoring punch, but does this team have enough — in all areas — to be a real contender? Odds: 22-1
Nick Collison, Oklahoma City Thunder
The No. 3 pick in this month’s draft (whoever it is) certainly will help the cause and the Thunder have a few other nice, young pieces — most notably Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook — but, realistically, this team is still a long way from challenging for an NBA title. If this nucleus stays together and develops and if they can find a way to add a veteran presence somewhere down the road, this team could be one of the hotter clubs in 3-5 years. But for now the thought that Collison and Co. have a shot at winning it all just seems ridiculous. Odds: 35-1
Darrell Arthur, Memphis Grizzlies
The facts are this.... Memphis won one more game than OKC during the 2008-09 season, but I just don’t like what I see out of Memphis the way I do in Oklahoma. Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo are pieces to be proud of, but I’d rather have Westbrook and Durant every day of the week. This isn’t about Memphis vs. OKC, nothing probably ever will be, but I had to have a reason to put one ahead of the other and I like the Thunder’s direction a little more. Odds: 41-1
Raef LaFrentz, Portland Trailblazers
Because he’s listed as the team’s third-string center, behind Joel Pryzbilla and Greg Oden, and because he’s already logged 11 seasons during his career, it’s hard to know if LaFrentz will even be playing in the NBA — or at least with Portland — next season. His contract, which made him the 36th highest paid player in the league last season has expired and Portland is free to release him. Does someone else take a chance on the journeyman center who can stretch opposing defenses or has Raef reached the end of the road? I’m guessing he’s done. If he is back with Portland, though, his odds shoot up significantly, as the Blazers are one of the league’s most impressive up-and-coming teams. Right now, though, the future is just too uncertain. Odds: 50-1
The Field (Billy Thomas, Keith Langford, Aaron Miles, Sasha Kaun, etc.)
None of these players have NBA roster spots for next season, but all of them — and perhaps a few others — are still out there fighting, hoping to get another shot at the NBA. Thomas, because of his history, and Kaun, because of his size, figure to have the best chance of landing on a roster, but both are longshots for next season. Langford, because of a great season in Italy, will get a shot on an NBA summer squad and he could parlay that into a roster spot when the regular season begins. Like with LaFrentz, though, it’s just too early to tell on these guys. Even if any of them do make a team, what are the odds that that team will win it all? Not good. Still, they’ve gotta be in the conversation. Odds: 100-1
Comments
d_prowess (anonymous) says...
Interesting stuff... First, you may have spent too much time out in the sun recently to think that Miami has better odds at winning a Championship than Cleveland. Seriously... you're better than that.
Second, I think the debate between Boston and Cleveland is very close. Obviously the Cavs struggled and lost to the Magic, but would they have lost if they played Boston? I am not sure. However, since this is about next year and we assume that KG will be back, I will agree that Boston should be the odds favorite. But next is Cleveland... your Miami pick still has me rattled...
June 3, 2009 at 10:47 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
matt_tait (Matt Tait) says...
I completely understand... Hear me out, though.
Why did the Cavs lose to Orlando? Because Orlando was the better TEAM. They had more than one guy, they had inside and outside game and they were incredibly well coached.
I think Miami has all of those next year.... Inside and outside threats, good team players and one of the better up-and-coming coaches in the game. Plus, Riley's still running the show from the front office.
Remember, this is as things stand right now. I'm sure we're all expecting Cleveland to do something to help their cause next year. And when they do, they might even jump the Celtics, depending, of course, on what the move is.
But I like Miami. I don't blame you for calling me crazy, but Miami - as it stands right now - is the better TEAM...
June 3, 2009 at 10:58 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
CreightonBlujayhawk (anonymous) says...
Your point about Orlando is correct. The Cavs lost to a better TEAM. However, how could you possibly say that Miami, as it stands right now, has a better team than Cleveland? Are you kidding me?
Miami isn't like Orlando. Orlando has three big time players right now (four with Jameer Nelson). Dwight Howard is All NBA. Rashard Lewis is overpaid with his 110 million dollar contract, but he is an all-star caliber player who can shoot from outside or score in the post. Turgolu is a versatile small forward with a penchant for playing big in the fourth quarter. Jameer Nelson is another all star, though he is injured.
You say that the Cavs are a one player team (or imply that). Then you claim the Heat has a better team. However, the problem is that for some reason you don't think Delonte West, Mo Williams, Big Z, and Varajao are a good team... yet you think Jermaine "The Drain" O'Neal, Jamario Moon, Udonis Haslem, Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers are better? I agree Chalmers and Beasley will get better. I don't know if Chalmers will ever be an NBA all-star, though.. and I am pretty sure he won't be next year. To me, his upside potential will be similar to Kirk Hinrich (which is definitely not a bad thing).
Only a strong KU bias could lead a person to say that Mario Chalmers will be better next year than Mo Williams.
The x-factor is Beasley. The question is whether or not he can be a legit second-all star to this team. I'm not sure if that will be even enough for them to win a title. The Cavs actually have a really strong team. They matched up badly against Orlando, but if you look at how they dismantled the Hawks (the team that beat the Heat..), then I think you will have to admit that they will at least be better than Miami for one more year.
June 3, 2009 at 12:34 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
d_prowess (anonymous) says...
I understand your logic, but just think you are giving Miami too much credit and Cleveland not enough.
History indicates that Cleveland (as it stands now) is better than Miami to the tune of winning 3 out of 4 games. Miami will get better as they young players develop, but still won't hit the overall skill level that the Cavs have.
You mention Miami has good team players, but Cleveland had one of the best team-first attitudes this year. And really for both teams, the team togetherness is only good when they are winning. In crunch time the ball goes to either D-Wade or LeBron and everyone else gets out of the way. In that situation, I would take LeBron any day.
Also, while Spo is an up-and-coming coach, he is still going to be young and learning next year, so I am not sure how much of an advantage this is to them.
The inside out game is probably the best argument that would give Miami an advantage, but O'Neal is no Dwight Howard, so even there the advantage might not be as big as you think.
I won't call you crazy for thinking the way you do, and I hope we get to see a Miami/Cleveland series next year in the playoffs, but the Cavs will win!
June 3, 2009 at 12:43 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
matt_tait (Matt Tait) says...
I'm just playing a hunch... If I would've told you before this year began that Denver would be the 2 seed in the West and would play in the Western Conference finals, you probably would've had a similar reaction as the one above, right?
After all, they lost Najera and Camby, still had Iverson and Melo had shown nothing in terms of being mature enough to do what he did in the playoffs. But the Nuggets made it.
I'm thinking the Heat can do the same thing. Could be wrong. Might be right.
June 3, 2009 at 12:44 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
d_prowess (anonymous) says...
The Heat can do it, but only if they make a trade for Chauncey!
And that example violates the premise of your article because as Denver stood in the offseason (aka pre-personnel moves), they probably wouldn't have made it where they did. My feelings are only based on the way each teams' rosters are at this point in time.
(maybe a follow-up blog before the season begins???)
June 3, 2009 at 12:48 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
matt_tait (Matt Tait) says...
Good points, d_prowess...
I looked up the season series, too. Decided not to use it in my argument, although I will point out that the Heat were 1-3 but all four games were decided by 10 pts or less....
(anyone think it's crazy that they only played each other 4 times)
If you're me, that shows the Heat are right there.... If you're you, that shows Cleveland is superior. Gotta love when you can spin things both ways.
Lastly, I wasn't necessarily comparing J O'Neal to Howard, I'm more thinking that the combo of Beasley and JO plus Haslem gives them a really nice interior game.
I know he went to K-State, but I still think Beasley is going to be an unbelievable NBA player someday soon....
June 3, 2009 at 12:48 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
d_prowess (anonymous) says...
What I don't understand is how this blog isn't being blown up by more than me! Beasley will be a beast. We can agree on that.
June 3, 2009 at 12:50 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
d_prowess (anonymous) says...
Sorry Creighton... I missed your post in there!
June 3, 2009 at 12:54 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
crock1701 (anonymous) says...
Two in a row? It's actually three:
2006: Wayne Simien, Miami Heat
2007: Jacque Vaughn, San Antonio Spurs
2008: Scott Pollard, Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics
and it was five straight with a Kansas connection, as Larry Brown took the Pistons to the '04 and '05 Finals.
June 4, 2009 at 11:09 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
matt_tait (Matt Tait) says...
I gotcha... Forgot about the Heat. Probably because Simien didn't actually play. But he did get a ring.
As for Larry Brown, the streak I was talking about was former Jayhawks winning it all. Larry didn't win with Detroit in 2005, just 2004...
June 5, 2009 at 1:02 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
crock1701 (anonymous) says...
Yeah, I missed a word in there; should've said "five straight Finals with a Kansas connection." My bad.
June 5, 2009 at 2:12 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )