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Texas Tech doesn't have the shooters to bomb away against KU

Kansas center Jeff Withey gets up to block a shot by Texas Tech forward Jaye Crockett during the first half Wednesday, Jan. 11, 2012, at United Spirit Arena.

Kansas center Jeff Withey gets up to block a shot by Texas Tech forward Jaye Crockett during the first half Wednesday, Jan. 11, 2012, at United Spirit Arena. by Nick Krug

Team: Texas Tech
Record: 8-5
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 253

3 Strengths

• Forcing turnovers: Texas Tech has done a great job of pressuring defensively, creating turnovers on 24.1 percent of opponents' possessions (31st nationally). The Red Raiders get most of those turnovers off steals, as 13.1 percent of their defensive possessions end in steals (26th nationally). Josh Gray (No. 5) and Daylen Robinson (No. 10) are the two best swipers, as both rank in the top 65 nationally in steal percentage. Kansas has done a good job of avoiding turnovers this year (89th nationally), but it is of note that the Jayhawks' worst turnover contest came in its only true road game of the year against Ohio State.

Offensive rebounding: Like Iowa State, Texas Tech has excelled on the offensive glass this season, grabbing 38 percent of its missed shots (32 percent). Some of that strength has fallen off in Big 12 play, where the Red Raiders are pulling down just 31 percent of their misses. This strength matches up with another KU strength, as the Jayhawks rank 53rd nationally in defensive rebounding percentage.

Interior scoring: Tech has shot a great percentage from two-point range, making 52.4 percent of its inside shots (33rd nationally). Nine of the Red Raiders' 11 rotation players are shooting 50 percent or better from two-point range, including Jaye Crockett (No. 30), who has made 65 of 105 twos (61.9 percent). Once again, though, this lines up directly with a KU strength, as the Jayhawks lead the nation in two-point percentage defense (37.3 percent).

3 Weaknesses

Three-point shooting: The Red Raiders have been dreadful from long range, making just 67 of 247 threes (331st nationally). Only one player — reserve Dusty Hannahs (No. 2) — has made more than 32 percent of his three-point tries this year. Texas Tech doesn't shoot a lot of threes, but it doesn't avoid them, either; thirty-two percent of the Red Raiders' field-goal attempts have been threes (217th-highest split nationally).

• Turning it over: While playing at a fast tempo, Texas Tech has a tendency to be careless, giving it away on 21.4 percent of its possessions (217th nationally). Tech averages 15.3 turnovers per game, with the highest turnover rates coming from guards Gray and Robinson. KU's guards haven't shown much ability to turn people over in the last few games (Fun stat: In the last five games, Jeff Withey, Kevin Young and Jamari Traylor [nine] have more combined steals than Elijah Johnson, Naadir Tharpe and Travis Releford [eight]), but they should be able to pick up at least a few Saturday afternoon.

Competition: Texas Tech has faced one of the worst schedules in the nation so far, with its slate ranking 346th (out of 347 teams) according to KenPom.com. The Red Raiders have only played one road game (at TCU) and have taken on five teams ranked 313th or worst in KenPom's standings. Tech hasn't played well when it has faced top competition at home, losing by 28 to Arizona and 34 to Baylor.

3 Players to Watch

• As mentioned earlier, 6-foot-1 guard Josh Gray (No. 5) has been great on the defensive end, coming away with steals on 4.8 percent of opponents' possessions (32nd nationally). Offensively, though, he's been a huge liability, taking on a lot of offensive responsibility while producing an inefficient line. The freshman is extremely turnover-prone, giving it away on 28.6 percent of the possessions he ends. He's also a miserable three-point shooter, going 9-for-41 (22 percent). Gray takes a team-high 25.9 percent of his team's shots when he's in the game, but KU shouldn't be too worried when he has the ball in his hands.

• Six-foot-7 forward Jaye Crockett (No. 30) is Tech's best scoring option, but for some reason, he doesn't start. He's a great finisher at the rim and also can get to the free throw line, drawing five fouls per game while shooting a team-high 53 free throws. The junior also is a gifted rebounder, bringing down 23.9 percent of the available defensive rebounds (67th nationally) and 13 percent of the available offensive rebounds (95th nationally). Crockett takes 24.4 percent of Tech's shots when he's in, and he's the main guy that the Jayhawks should key on defensively.

Six-foot-11 forward Dejan Kravic (No. 11) has performed well when he's out there, though he's played less than half of Tech's minutes. The junior has three main strengths: inside shooting, where he's made 56 of 98 shots (57.1 percent); offensive rebounding, where he's grabbed 11.9 percent of his team's misses when he's in (156th nationally); and shot-blocking, as he's swatted 8.8 percent of opponent twos (56th nationally).

Prediction

The biggest challenge for KU in Lubbock usually is bringing its own energy. Typically, United Spirit Arena is the emptiest gym that the Jayhawks play in front of all year.

Other than that, there's really not many reasons to think KU will struggle. Tech's strength offensively is inside, and KU has center Jeff Withey to clean that up. Another strength for Tech is offensive rebounding, and the Jayhawks do a nice job on the defensive glass.

If KU can somehow find a way to get turnovers, this one could get ugly quickly. Even if the Jayhawks don't, though, I still don't think they'll be challenged against one of the Big 12's two worst teams.

Kansas 86, Texas Tech 56

Hawk to Rock

After his 33-point game against Iowa State, guard Ben McLemore said KU coach Bill Self talked to him about working harder without the ball while also looking for his shot more. This game should be the perfect test run to see if McLemore can start to be more aggressive.

I think he will be. Put me down for 20-plus points with at least four three-pointers from the talented freshman.

Predictions tally
13-1 record, 180 points off (12.9 points off/game)

Hawk to Rock
SE Missouri: Perry Ellis (2nd in KUsports.com ratings)
Michigan State: Jeff Withey (4th)
Chattanooga: Andrew White III (10th)
Washington State: Ben McLemore (4th)
Saint Louis: Perry Ellis (7th)
San Jose State: Travis Releford (2nd)
Oregon State: Jeff Withey (2nd)
Colorado: Elijah Johnson (4th)
Belmont: Kevin Young (6th)
Richmond: Jeff Withey (1st)
Ohio State: Ben McLemore (1st)
American: Jeff Withey (5th)
Temple: Kevin Young (2nd)
Iowa State: Travis Releford (4th)
Average: 3.9th in KUsports.com ratings

Comments

akgjenkintown 4 months, 1 week ago

I am ready for a blowout after the last two nail bitters. Plus 30 point advantage would be nice and give Self a chance to rest some players for the Monday night game. Lets just hope KU comes ready to play and does not play down to their competition.

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srj 4 months, 1 week ago

Would not be surprised if KU sleep walks thru this game, looking ahead to next week. Just saying that big point spread (up to 18 1/2 points) on the road is scary.

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srj 4 months, 1 week ago

Half looks exactly like the Michigan-Nebraska game this week. 25-20, a top team looking ahead, against a bad team looking to slow down the game.

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Boouk 4 months, 1 week ago

Remember when Teahan got punched last year in this game?

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Boouk 4 months, 1 week ago

KU's struggled historically in Lubbock under Self, but there's no way we lose to TTU or TCU this season. TCU's even lower than TTU is in the KenPom rankings.

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chuckberry32 4 months, 1 week ago

jesse, i already picked KU to win by 30 in another thread... copycat. :)

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drgnslayr 4 months, 1 week ago

Thanks for another great scouting report, Jesse!

I'm anxious to see what CS can do to start exploiting more opportunities for Ben.

Ben is built to be the biggest threat to any defense. He's long, fast and can leap. He isn't limited by being too big or too small.... He can operate anywhere on the floor, so CS can tailor plays specific to scouting reports. And... he can shoot from anywhere.

Something different:

What if we game coached using more of a football coaching structure. Have an assistant watching live stream video to see the game better and then have a headset on a floor coach to run plays and adjust spacing. The game looks different when you get off the floor and with multiple camera angles more of the game is exposed. Is there a rule preventing teams operate like football? What if we had an offensive and defensive coordinator working on the sides and adjusting strategy all through the game. Of course, basketball isn't as complicated as football, since there are few players playing... but I still think the game could improve with a different game structure.

Maybe we just take advantage of technology. All our games have video production... can we have a mini flat screen on the bench? An iPad would be the perfect size. In fact.. why aren't iPads used on the bench anyways? Coaches can show play schemes more effectively from an iPad.

I've always thought basketball has been "under coached" during the games. You see coaches sitting and watching most of the time, from their limited view, and typically the head coach may or may not communicate constantly throughout the game with a player or two on the floor. Why not break the coaching down into defense and offense? The strategies for both sides are totally different and should be treated on their own. So you develop better sideline communications and you have a coordinator for both sides of the ball, who is the only one standing during their communication moments... for example, right after a score the defensive coordinator jumps up and gives both hand gestures (for the entire team) while yelling specific instructions to the defensive floor captain. I'd have a post player be defensive captain. In our case it is easy to pick that one... Jeff. He's playing big time minutes and he is floor leader on defense. Since the post plays with the game in front of them, they can easily see positioning issues, etc. On the offensive end, EJ, obviously our PG.

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chuckberry32 4 months, 1 week ago

I like your foward thinking in this matter. I think the game moves a little too fast for constant commuciating between a coordinator and the floor. generally there is a lot of communication between coaches and players but it's often more general. switch to zone, box and 1, press, etc. on the offensive end they do usually call a play everytime they set up their half court O but this is generally called by the point guard and may or not be called from the bench.

as to the ipad, i think it would be great to be able to visually show a player what just happened during a timeout but this would take some seriously quick production and the low tech X and O drawings on a white board tend to work just fine. sometimes technology overcomplicates things. One of my favorite anecdotes is how nasa spent millions of dollars researching a pen that could write in zero gravity, meanwhile, russia just used a pencil.

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BeachHawk 4 months, 1 week ago

Agree; and like the example about the pencil. We have a tendency to want to make things more difficult than looking for the simple.

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drgnslayr 4 months, 1 week ago

Thanks for not blasting me on this post. Sometimes I just like to throw ideas out there and get some feedback. This site is a pretty good source for ideas.

I've been using an iPad recently and amazed at what is possible. Software engineers will surely develop something for this purpose. Right off the bat, I can think of some benefits... even on your Xs and Os... just being able to click and have everything there so you don't need to waste time with a pencil. You can then drag Xs and Os to show movement. In a couple of seconds you have a quick visual with timeline to show a play. Just a thought...

On the sideline coaching... I'm thinking of ways to tweak by developing more hand signals. You are right... the game is fast and you can't do something that draws too much attention away from the game or confuse players. I'm always screaming instructions to our guys now, but I'm not quite loud enough to reach them through my tv. I'd like to see a low hand swipe signal telling our perimeter players to tighten up on the perimeter and have their hands out wide. It seems like constant game tweaking would help them stay focused.

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JayDogger 4 months, 1 week ago

"Fun stat: In the last five games, Jeff Withey, Kevin Young and Jamari Traylor [nine] have more combined steals than Elijah Johnson, Naadir Tharpe and Travis Releford [eight]"

Fun yet pathetic. But I'm sure our guards will turn that around.

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JayDogger 4 months, 1 week ago

It's a shame they don't get better crowds. I looked up the arena up in Wiki and it seems pretty cool. I was surprised it was named for a supermarket chain; I thought it was for United Airlines (though they have no natural connection to Lubbock, Texas.)

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Brock 4 months, 1 week ago

Whatever happened to that Ellis kid? Is he going to play?

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KGphoto 4 months, 1 week ago

This might be a good opportunity for him to cut his teeth in the Big 12.

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Brock 4 months, 1 week ago

He needs a couple of years working with Andrea Hudy. Someday we will need him to play.

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jhawkgal4 4 months, 1 week ago

Looks like your scouting report was spot on. Not the greatest game we've played, but Self clearly lit a fire under them in the locker room at half time. I'm just hoping we can show up to play Monday night.

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