Big 12 tournament predictions


I'm glad the Big 12 men's basketball tournament returned to its rightful place in Kansas City, Mo. this season.

The Sprint Center will be the site of this year's tournament and next year's tournament in 2011. The ideal next step? 2012, 2013, 2014, etc.
Orlin Wagner/AP Photo: A view inside Sprint Center

The postseason basketball tournament belongs in Kansas City, just as the Big 12 football championship belongs in Arlington, Texas.

With two exceptionally dynamic and beautiful facilities in Big 12 territories — Sprint Center and Cowboys Stadium — why even think of holding the postseason championships anywhere else?

To get ready for the Big 12 hoops tournament, which begins Wednesday at 11:30 a.m., I've prepared five questions. We won't know the answers until after Saturday's 5 p.m. championship game, so feel free to offer your answers in the comments section below.

Here's the tournament bracket:

1. Aside from the top four seeds with first-round byes (No. 1 Kansas, No. 2 Kansas State, No. 3 Baylor and No. 4 Texas A&M), what team would you not want to face?

Answer: Oklahoma State. No thanks. The Cowboys should beat Oklahoma and then have a legitimate chance of upsetting Kansas State.

The Cowboys, behind Big 12 player of the year James Anderson, were the only team to knock off Kansas and Kansas State this season.
Nick Krug/Journal-World Photo

In fact, I'd rather be No. 3 Baylor than No. 2 Kansas State in the tournament. Baylor's likely second-round game would be against a reeling No. 6 Texas squad. K-State's likely second-round draw would be against surging No. 7 Okie State.

2. Which player will score the most total points in the tournament?
Nick Krug/Journal-World Photo

Answer: LaceDarius Dunn. Lace lit up Texas for 30 points in the Bears' 92-77 regular-season finale. I foresee Baylor making a deep run, with the the Big 12's three-point leader and second-leading scorer being the catalyst.

3. What's your Oscar selection for movie of the year?

Answer: OK, so a little off topic, but here at Conference Chatter, that happens every now and then with TV shows and movies. Admittedly, I have not seen Avatar or Crazy Heart. I have seen Hurt Locker, Up in the Air and Inglourious Basterds. Was I the only one not blown away by Hurt Locker? My vote goes to George Clooney and Co., with a slight edge over Quentin Tarantino's gem. Up in the Air.

4A. How many Big 12 teams will reach the NCAA Tournament?

Answer: Seven.

And they're all pretty sure locks: Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma State.

The seven teams in the tournament would be a conference record. The Big 12 has put six teams in the tourney the past two years, and in 2005, 2003, 2002, 2001 and 2000.

4B: Is the Big 12 the best conference in the country?

Answer: Yes. This is probably the best the Big 12's ever been. If Kansas and K-State make deep NCAA runs (don't count out Baylor and A&M doing the same), it would really drive the point home.

5. What is your Big 12 tournament finals matchup, and who wins?

Answer: Kansas vs. Baylor; Champion: Kansas.

Ah, wouldn't that be interesting? A rematch of the second-round shocker from last season, when the No. 9 Bears defeated the No. 1 Jayhawks, 71-64, in Oklahoma City.
Nick Krug/Journal-World Photo

Kansas should make it to the finals. The Jayhawks will have more fans at Sprint Center than any other team, so it should feel like home games, taken down several notches.

Texas A&M presents a possible obstacle for KU in the semifinals, but the Aggies would have to hold off Missouri before that game happens. A&M coach Mark Turgeon is also 0-4 against his alma mater, KU.

Kansas has looked unstoppable the past week against its two biggest rivals, K-State and Missouri, winning by an average of 18 points in the two contests.

Baylor would have to hold off Texas and the Kansas State/Oklahoma State winner to make the finals. The Bears have won four straight games and seven of eight. Why they're not ranked higher than No. 21 in the Associated Press poll is beyond me.

Fun fact: Baylor forward/sixth man Quincy Acy threw down 10 dunks against Texas on Saturday. By himself. Yikes. I like Baylor to reach the finals again.

What are your answers? That should be all for now. As always, discuss.


JayhawkRock 11 years, 3 months ago

I respect your prediction of KU versus Baylor in the finals but I really hope OK State can make it to the championship. I know for a fact that Sherron wants to play OK State again in this tournament and that is a game I would love to watch.

Jesse Newell 11 years, 3 months ago

  1. Missouri. It takes more than a few hours to prepare for the Tigers' unique style. KU might have an advantage, though, because the Jayhawks just played the Tigers and could face them in the semis.

  2. Jacob Pullen. Best scorer on a team that I think will make the finals.

4A. Seven. Unless one of the bottom five teams wins four straight, which would make it eight Big 12 teams in (yikes).

4B. No. I'll go with the Big East, though I think the ACC should be in the discussion as well, as it doesn't have any horrible teams top to bottom.

  1. Kansas vs. Kansas State. Yeah, it's not a risky pick, but it's the matchup I honestly think is going to happen.

Queen_Krenda 11 years, 3 months ago

Screw this, I want Syracuse. We owe them big time for 2003. And last year!

Marshall Ballard 11 years, 3 months ago

Championship is on Saturday at 5:00pm this year, correct, not Sunday?

How about early upset of the tourney? ISU over Texas? Nebraska over Missouri?

Marshall Ballard 11 years, 3 months ago

  1. Rallying Texas team
  2. Damien James- would have four games worth of points 4a. 7 4b. Big 12
  3. Kansas and Texas- fortunately for the Hawks, the rallying Longhorns will be dead tired and have no legs left after their furious attempts to regain some respect in the basketball world!

Kettlesworth 11 years, 3 months ago

I'd like to see KU and Mizzou in the final game since its at the Sprint Center. Bball!

d_prowess 11 years, 3 months ago

Quick edit if you are interested: "We won't know the answers until after Sunday's 5 p.m. championship game" It should say Saturday instead of Sunday. Nitpicky, i know.

  1. I agree with OSU. MU just doesn't shoot the ball well enough to maximize their advantageous playing style.

  2. James Anderson for OSU. This question is obviously weighted towards who you think makes the finals. I think it will be OSU and KU, which gives it to Anderson. And then I think it is X. Henry next on that list. The kid just always seems to score even though not many people notice it until they hear the final number.

  3. Oscars? Didn't see enough to offer an answer.

4A. Seven. Dare I say our conference is boring this year from a bubble standpoint?

4B. Big East. I just think they are slightly better than the Big 12, but maybe not by much. And Jesse, the ACC... really? They aren't close...

  1. As I alluded to above, I think it is KU versus OSU and KU gets the win. This team would want to win this matchup more than any other.

Eric Sorrentino 11 years, 3 months ago

buck, nice call, the Big 12 title game will indeed be Saturday at 5 p.m. on ESPN. I was so used to it being on Sunday.

Interesting call on Texas. I just don't see them being consistent enough to beat Baylor and K-State/Okie State to get to the title. There's no denying the pieces are there, though, for a run. You never know.

Jesse Newell 11 years, 3 months ago

prowess — KenPom has the ACC ranked as the top conference. And you know how I love KenPom ...

JayhawkRock 11 years, 3 months ago

I saw in one of Lunardi's latest bracketology things that OK state would be a 8 or 9 seed...I gotta say, I would be tempted to take OK state over Duke if that were the format because of their quickness and ability to shoot the deep ball.

Studogg 11 years, 3 months ago

  1. Don't want to face Texas.
  2. Marcus Morris will score the most points in the tournament.
  3. Only movie I saw nominated for BP was Up. I liked it. 4a. 7 teams 4b. Big East. We have the RPI edge, but I think the Big East has fewer bad teams.

  4. I also have KU vs TX for the title with KU winning. I think Texas will beat ISU in the first round, exact revenge for last week over Baylor in the quarters, get more revenge over a reeling KSU team (that will eek out a 2 or 3 pt win over OSU the previous night) in the semis, and then run out of gas against our Jayhawks.

JayhawkRock 11 years, 3 months ago

Of course after I post I went and checked to see the very latest bracketology and see that OK state is a 7 seed and WVU is the 2 seed...I still would be tempted to take OS state over WVU in the second round.

JayhawkRock 11 years, 3 months ago

In this Bracketology

I would also be tempted to take UT over Perdue in the second round because of no Robbie Hummel for Purdue...Of course this all depends on how UT plays this week. And obviously I dont think Lunardi will get everything correct this year because there arent a lot of lock positions.

Queen_Krenda 11 years, 3 months ago

I agree Jawhawk Rock. OSU very dangerous. Don't even think Missouri will make the NCAA tourney this year. Surprised we didn't play Baylor this year.

JayhawkRock 11 years, 3 months ago


You love KenPom but I dont understand why...This is the same system that thinks Duke is the #1 team when they are limping in to that 4th 1 seed...Give me a break. The ACC the best conference? Jay Williams, Jay Bilas, or Hubert Davis wouldn't even agree with that. The ACC is 3rd and the Big East and the Big 12 are clearly the best two conferences in the country. And on top of that the system has Wisconsin at #3? That has to be a joke.

Matt Tait 11 years, 3 months ago

Nice blog, Tino.... Here goes.

  1. Missouri - in that building, with that style of play. The Tigers aren't a great team but they can be in spurts. And you know they'll be jacked up for the tourney. If they hit shots, they're very dangerous.

  2. Sherron Collins. In my opinion, no team will play more than three games in this tourney, so let's go with the best offensive player on the best team that will play three games. I think Sherron finds his stroke and gets rolling.

  3. Only saw three of the nominees, but I loved Inglourious Basterds. Really clever.

4a. Seven is the answer. Even if someone outside of the mix gets hot and wins this thing, say Iowa State, all that would do is bump some other Big 12 team out. Seven it is. And what a great year for the Big 12.

4b. Big East. I think the Big 12's a real close second. It's just tough to argue with the top three or four in the Big East.

  1. Kansas vs. Kansas State, the banner year for the Sunflower State continues. I think KU wins it, but I think it'll be somewhere between the 2-point win in Manhattan and the 17-point win in the Fieldhouse. I'll go KU 74, KSU 67.

Gonna be fun!!!

Matt Tait 11 years, 3 months ago

If I could add a No. 6, it would be this: Potential match-up you're most looking forward to?

For me, it's K-State vs. Oklahoma State in the second round. Tough draw for both teams. That'll be a doosie.

Jesse Newell 11 years, 3 months ago

JayhawkRock — Just because your eyes don't believe it doesn't necessarily mean that it's not true.

Ken Pomeroy has admitted his system isn't perfect. But if you look at his projections and the Las Vegas lines for games, you'll notice there's rarely more than a two-point difference.

KenPom's main focus is on adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies. Duke is in the top three in both categories. That's only happened once in the last six years.

. . . . . .

Yep, that's right. The only team in the last six years to finish in the top three both statistics in the last six years was the 2007-08 Kansas Jayhawks. KenPom knew what he was talking about then, right?

Kettlesworth 11 years, 3 months ago

What if they made a movie about KU bball and called it "Self Control" and it was about how HCBS couldn't stop winning titles? Best Picture! LOL!!

lv_jhwk 11 years, 3 months ago

Going to save my comments on the basketball and instead start my focus on point 3:

I too was underwhelmed by The Hurt Locker, at least in a Best Picture sense. Saw it a week ago since it was on of few nominees I hadn't seen. Seemed incomplete...I kept thinking that there was going to be more to the story. Needless to say I wondered afterward what was the actual reason for all the hoopla.

Okay, that said, here's the rest of my "insight":

1) None of the above...I just think the separation between those teams is that great. Missouri might be able to use the backyard venue to its benefit like KU, but Texas hasn't shown any signs of putting things back together and O-State isn't the same outside of G-I.

2) Whichever guard (Dunn or Pullen) leads his team into the championship game.

4a) Seven. 4b) Very slight edge to Big East over the Big 12. Top four probably favors the BEast, the middle even, bottom four (13-16 of the Big East) favoring the Big 12.

5) Kansas versus Baylor. KU wins.

LSlater 11 years, 3 months ago

Have to join in the fun with the sports boys.

  1. Oklahoma St. They've been great lately. I'd be good not having to play them again.
  2. Denis Clemente. Due to a recent teensy slump, he will be back with a vengeance. He's a shooter.
  3. I will admit I only say 5 of the 10 movies -- and I must see "Up In the Air" since Tino loves it so much -- but of the 5, I enjoyed "Inglourious Basterds" the most. Bonjourno. 4a. 7. 4b. Definitely. And as say that as a Big 10 alumni (but they're obviously not great, not helped by my Northwestern Wildcats).
  4. Kansas vs. Kansas State. Boring, typical, sure. However, I will agree with great man Gary Bedore's logic on this one -- after many conversations, it would be best for KU to lose to K-State in the Big 12 tourney instead of potentially seeing them again in the NCAAs. You cannot beat a team 4 times in one season. K-State wins this one -- for the sake of a KU National Championship.

@jnewell -- still waiting for my invite to spodcast. Can't you see I'm insightful? :)

Alec White 11 years, 3 months ago

Why all the love for OSU lately? I understand they beat us and K-State, but saying they're scorching hot is a bit of an overstatement. They got pasted by A&M the game after beating us, so you could make an argument that after securing an NCAA bid their motivation is questionable. Then they beat Nebraska and Oklahoma (who they are playing in the first round game), not exactly two teams that are going to prepare you for the beast that is the Big XII tournament. But I can assure you K-State is going to be ready to play after an embarrasing home loss to Iowa State. I'm looking for K-State to beat Oklahoma State handily on Thursday and then squeak by Baylor for an all-Kansas final on Saturday (if we get by A&M---I still think we have our eyes on the bigger prize and could slip up against the Aggies).

As for who is going to score the most points, I'd put my money on Sherron. His two threes against Missouri suggest that he's out of his shooting slump. Also, I think Tyshawn's dazzling second half against Mizzou will put pressure on Bill to let him control the offense more. This will let Sherron do what he does best---put the ball in the hole without worrying about showing NBA scouts he can run a team. I think if Sherron moved off the ball for the rest of the year it would greatly increase our chances of winning the title.

JayhawkRock 11 years, 3 months ago

If Duke wins the national championship then I will say that KenPom is legit...Pretty safe bet since I know that they wont. For that matter if an ACC team wins the title then I will say that KenPom is legit.

Come on Jesse even you cant say that Wisconsin is #3 in the country. And for that matter BYU #5? I think BYU is good but not #5 until they beat someone. Cal at #16? They play in the worst conference in the country!

Code_2008 11 years, 3 months ago

Women's: Kansas already has to face Okie State on the Women's side... give them a little support... the girls need it.

Men's: I want it to be Kansas vs. Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game. Round 3! With Kansas winning in OT again. Seriously, that was a fun game to watch.

Also, for the Movie, I feel it should of been Avatar.

Chris1955 11 years, 3 months ago

  1. Colorado
  2. Baylor's Tweety bird
  3. Up in the Air 4A. 7 teams 4B. Yes
  4. KU vs. Baylor, KU wins

Outrageous Big 12 tournament predictions

  1. KU in OT vs. CU. Burkes go wild!
  2. Dexter Pittman ends up getting suspended during the tournament by Barnes after an excessive UT victory night celebration over ISU
  3. DeLoss Dodds starts making new HC inquiries during the tournament (secretly), and fires Barnes after they flame out in the 1st round of March Madness. Dodds hires UNM's Steve Alford.

Jesse Newell 11 years, 3 months ago

JayhawkRock — Here are the current odds to win the national title from a sportsbook:

Kansas is first at 2/1. Kentucky and Syracuse are tied at second at 3/1. Duke is fourth at 7/1.

Duke is probably going to be the fourth No. 1 seed. I would say that any No. 1 seed has a legitimate chance of winning it all.

For me personally, I'm not going to discount statistics because they don't jive with the public opinions of teams. Wisconsin plays slow, so people think that the Badgers are no good. Can slow teams play well? I think so. BYU hasn't played anyone, but could the Cougars beat tougher teams? I don't see why not.

It's all a piece of the puzzle. KenPom isn't perfect, but neither are the human rankings. I choose to look at KenPom to learn more about the tendencies of teams. I know that's not for everyone, and it shouldn't be. I guess to each their own.

JayhawkRock 11 years, 3 months ago

Most years I would agree that any #1 seed has a chance to win the National Title but Duke is a team that I think is least prepared to win the title because of the amount of scoring they leave to only three players. If one is off then Duke could lose to anyone. And when you have to win 6 straight games it is very rare that three guys can stay hot throughout a grooling tournament. Duke does not have a ton of depth to rely on.

Look, I understand Jesse that you like these ratings and you have your ratings but computers dont see what teams rely on and they dont see variable change like injuries.

Yes human rankings have their problems and bias' and I understand that but when you look at a team like Duke do you really think thats a team that can win a title? I dont. They have a good record from a crappy conference. The ACC is down and I dont care what KenPom has to say about the ACC. There is one good team, Duke, and several average to below average teams. This KenPom guys is nuts if he thinks the ACC is the best conference.

Im guessing you're a numbers guy and you hate when human rankings come out without any numbers to back their cases as to why their rankings are the way they are.

Duke is a good team but they are not a team that can win a title because there comes a time in every tournament for every team where they lose their legs and they have to rely on their bench or other role players to make plays. The Davidson game comes to mind where we struggled as a team from the floor and it was clear that we were tired in that game but we made enough plays to advance. Duke will get to that point at least once and I for one dont think they will be able to make plays to get buy. The reason why KU was able to advance was because of their depth and the reason they won the title was because of their depth and when I look at Duke they dont have the depth needed to win.

If Duke wins the Title I will personally apologize and believe KenPom is the greatest thing ever invented.

Alec White 11 years, 3 months ago

  1. Nebraska
  2. Josh Lomers
  3. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 4a. 11 4b. Pac-10
  4. Oklahoma vs. Nebraska. Huskers take a nail-biter 37-36 in double OT. Anderson paces Nebraska with 8 pts, 3 rbs, and 6 TO. Jeff Capel also quotes it as "the biggest victory of my career." When asked to elaborate, he simply explained a victory would've sent the Sooners into the Big Dance and required him to cancel his two-week long vacation...a vacation that Capel booked in December when doctors discovered a black hole in Willie Warren's head that consumed his basketball IQ along with any hopes of postseason play (in fact, doctors are researching if that added airspace in his noggin contributes to his 40-inch vertical).

Robert Brock 11 years, 3 months ago

Please don't review films.

Just kidding.

AsherFusco 11 years, 3 months ago

  1. Oklahoma State — Missouri is dangerous because of its athleticism, defense and streaky style of play, but Oklahoma State offers great overall team athleticism along with strong shooting and several top-notch players in James Anderson and Obi Muonelo.

  2. LaceDarius Dunn — The Baylor wing has a good chance to stick around late into the tournament. He's only the Big 12's fifth-best per-minute scorer, but, in my opinion, will play more games than anyone above him on the list.

  3. Inglourious Basterds — Definitely close between this film and Up In the Air. I just felt Tarantino's film offered brilliant writing and great performances from Christoph Waltz and Brad Pitt. Up, Precious and Hurt Locker were also solid.

4A. Seven — Hard to put Oklahoma State on the bubble when it has the same conference record as Texas. OSU is a lock, in my eyes.

4B. Yes — It's not a runaway victory, but the Big 12 edges the ACC and the Big East. The ACC is the most solid top-to-bottom, with no teams outside of KenPom's top 80. The Big 12, however, boasts Kansas (the nation's best team, by a long way) and Kansas State (a solid top 10 group). The ACC's two best, Duke and Maryland, are elite, but not as much so as KU and K-State. After Duke and Maryland, there's a huge drop-off to the ACC's next best teams. In the Big 12, Baylor is hovering right there as one of the most underrated teams in the country (better in-conference efficiency margin than K-State!). The Big East isn't in the conversation because of the terrible teams near its bottom. DePaul and Rutgers belong in the Atlantic 10, not the same conference as Syracuse and West Virginia.

  1. Kansas vs. Baylor (KU wins) — The Bears' surging offense should push them past all comers until the finals, where KU's conference-best offense AND defense end things with a tidy 15-point victory.

Drew Alan 11 years, 3 months ago

  1. Texas - only team with enough depth (albeit shrinking depth as point guard after point guard keeps going down) to stay rested enough to play well 4 days in a row.

  2. James Anderson, and I don't think they need to make the finals for him to do it. 3 games is enough for Anderson to score in the 80 point range and I don't see any players (save for maybe Dunn) doing that much damage over 3 games. Baylor can lean on guys like Carter, Acy, and Udoh for scoring, but OSU really depends on Anderson for its offense to run. (on days when they aren't shooting 60% as a team)

  3. I didn't see most of the nominees, but I can tell you, as a complete MOVIE, Inglorious Basterds was a lot better than Avatar.

  4. The Big XII gets 7, even if OSU gets upset today, they are safe. The Big East gets a lot of attention, but they have 16 teams! If you added 4 good regional schools to the Big XII (Northern Iowa, Tulsa, Houston, TCU, Missouri State, etc) we'd be just as good as the Big East, if not better. I'd take the bottom 4 from the big 12 over the bottom 4 from the big east anyday.

  5. KU vs. Baylor, and I think KU will win. This is a GREAT conference, but KU proved through the conference season that they are EASILY the best team in that conference.

Steve Corder 11 years, 3 months ago

Sorry, no OSU and IF they do face KU in the finals then the outcome won't be a 60% OSU FG game. The little guard won't replicate his performance in a rematch and Anderson isn't Danny Manning.

But, outside the top 4???? Irrelevant

Here's a question: If you're one of the other NCAA projected tourny Big 12 teams who do you not want to face in The Sprint Center this weekend?

Michael Leiker 11 years, 3 months ago

Repeat of 2008 - aTm in the semis and UT in the final. KS Champs.

shinguard 11 years, 3 months ago

Prediction of the Day: Today is Chuck Norris's Birthday and as a result all Texas teams will be victorious. As a tribute I expect to see multiple roundhouse kicks to the face ;-)

AsherFusco 11 years, 3 months ago

Not sure I understand where the widespread underrating of Duke is coming from here. The Blue Devils posted a +.18 points per possession margin against ACC opponents. KU posted a +.18 points per possession margin against Big 12 teams. You might think the Big 12 is better than the ACC, but you can't make a logical assertion that the Big 12 is far superior to the ACC. In that case, it's fine to argue KU is better than Duke. But to say Duke is overrated or weak is just silly. No matter how much of a hoops savant or basketball expert you are, you haven't seen every possession by every team this season. The computers have.

Scott Smetana 11 years, 3 months ago

Thanks for the link above to the ESPN predicted NCAA bracket. I'm very interested in our 4 seed. According to this bracket, we draw Tennessee.. ouch. I'd much rather have Vanderbilt or Wisconsin.

Baylor is the second best team in the big 12. Dunn is going to light it up in both tourneys.

The Big 12 is leaps above the stupid Big East. Nebraska and CU would finish in their top half. Besides Syracuse, they have nothing.

Final Big 12 matchup: who cares, it's just practice. I'm hoping a loss by KU doesn't cost us St. Louis to Kensucky.

Best Picture 2009: Star Trek.

Mike Kendall 11 years, 3 months ago

Like some above, I would love a rematch of O-State VS Kansas. It might not happen. The lower bracket is much tougher. Baylor is a team that might be in the Final for the second year in a row. They are playing really well right now. I don't see K-State being in the Final. They are a team that is spiraling downward. Some have said Texas will be there. Texas has to play that extra day and it is much tougher to get to the Final when you play an extra--not always the case--look at Baylor last year. KU can work on their consistency during this Tourney and play others if their games are blowouts. Other than those two, the Big 12 Tourney is just extra games for the Jayhawks. One thing they can't do is to lose on Thursday, like they did last year. Rock Chalk!

Michael Leiker 11 years, 3 months ago

Asher - in my book Duke is the second toughest matchup for KU in the tourney after Syracuse. I think the hawks would roll UK. Duke plays long and KU does not seem to play well against athletic teams that play long. Add the outside shooting and it's a recipe for disaster. Depending on the brackets I may put a little money down on Duke to win it all. They will probably be the best value bet out there.

Michael Leiker 11 years, 3 months ago

Eric - completely agree on hurt locker, I don't know why but I was easily distracted throughout the entire movie.

Michael Leiker 11 years, 3 months ago

Anybody else have thoughts on how good Baylor would be if Josh Lomers never saw the floor? It always amazes me watching Baylor how you have 4 guys flying around doing one thing and one dude the just seems to be off by himself pounding natty light and grabbing the occassional rebound.

Ron Prichard 11 years, 3 months ago

Jesse, I'm coming late to the party but want to join in on the debate with JayhawkRock. If you are going to rely on KenPom, are you picking Duke to win the NC with Wisconsin making the Final Four and BYU the Sweet Sixteen? Just curious.

I'm an admitted KU homer, but I just don't see Duke doing much outside of Cameron Indoor. They have been beaten by teams that get physical with them and have an inside presence. Yes, anything can happen, but if you had to use your best educated guess, would you pick Duke to win it all?

As for the ACC being the best conference and not having any bad teams, UNC is horrible this year. Flat horrible. They were 5-11 in the conference and had to "unexpectedly" beat an even worse Miami (4-12 in conf) team to get there. Six teams in the ACC had losing conference records while only five Big XII teams had losing records in the conference. Maryland, a team that tied Duke for the ACC regular season championship is ranked 19 in the latest AP poll, and is the only other ranked ACC team. Four Big XII teams are ranked in the latest poll, with two in the top 10, including the #1 team in the country. Florida St., tied for third in the ACC at 10-6, didn't even receive an, "Others receiving votes" nod (Texas, Big XII #6 received 10 votes).

I know there are arguments in favor of the ACC and Duke. I'd just like to hear them instead of hearing, "See KenPom."

Alec White 11 years, 3 months ago

leikness, your natty light comment was one of the best I've seen. priceless

ParisHawk 11 years, 3 months ago

Lots of pros and cons today. Some opinions:

  • How can you talk about bias? It's all math. You can argue with the method or use other criteria to judge, but Pomeroy is not making up numbers to nudge Duke to the top.

  • Pomeroy's approach seems to favor teams like Duke that win by big margins and lose by small ones. That was the case with our NC team, not so much with this year's team. By the way, others have pointed out to Pomeroy that Duke usually does much better in his stats than in the NCAA Tournament!

  • I like the site for the detailed breakdowns of teams and players. One tidbit I like: TRob fouls the most as we all know, but apparently he is also the KU player the most likely to be fouled.

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