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April 14, 2009
With the announcement that Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich will return to Kansas University next season, the Jayhawks could have two first-team All-Americans in their 2009-2010 starting lineup.
As a result, Kansas should be a top-three preseason squad next season. Maybe even No. 1, should the Jayhawks land Xavier Henry, Lance Stephenson, Daniel Orton or John Wall.
ESPN college hoops writer Andy Katz ranked the Jayhawks No. 1 in his preseason Top 25 for 2009-2010.
What's not to like about KU next season? The Jayhawks don't lose any valuable court minutes from last year's team. How about this for depth:
Guards: Collins, Tyshawn Taylor, Elijah Johnson, Tyrel Reed, Travis Releford.
Guard/forwards: Brady Morningstar, Mario Little.
Forwards: Marcus Morris, Markieff Morris, Thomas Robinson.
Centers: Aldrich, Jeff Withey.
And of course ... potentially Henry (6-6 shooting guard), Stephenson (6-6 shooting guard), Orton (6-10 center) or Wall (6-3 point guard).
Even without the recruits, KU has the same starting lineup as last year with Collins, Taylor, Morningstar, Marcus Morris and Aldrich.
... Yikes.
Nick Krug/Journal-World file photo
It's a foregone conclusion the Jayhawks will be favored to win the Big 12 next season. But what about the rest of the conference? Here's how I would rank the next 11 teams for 2009-2010 (it's pretty early, so this is subject to change):
2. Texas
Sure, departed senior A.J. Abrams left, but coach Rick Barnes boasts the highest-ranked 2009 recruiting class (No. 3 overall on Rivals) in the Big 12 with small forward Jordan Hamilton (No. 5 overall Rivals recruit) and shooting guard Avery Bradley (No. 8 overall).
I’m just spitballing here, but this starting lineup would be stacked:
- 1. Dogus Balbay
- 2. Avery Bradley
- 3. Damion James
- 4. Gary Johnson
- 5. Dexter Pittman
Bench: Jordan Hamilton, Justin Mason, Varez Ward, Clint Chapman. I haven’t seen Hamilton play, but he appears to be talented enough to start immediately. Maybe Barnes bumps Johnson from the starting lineup. Either way, Texas should challenge Kansas for the Big 12 title next season. Katz ranked UT No. 4 overall in his preseason rankings.
Editor's note: I forgot to initially mention Jai Lucas, but the Florida transfer point guard is expected to challenge Balbay for a starting spot at Texas next season. Either way, he'll play a significant role and he's clearly more of a scoring threat than Balbay. UT needs to replace Abrams with as much scoring as possible from both guard positions. Just more depth on an already loaded UT squad.
3. Kansas State
I’m very high on the ‘Cats next season. I think they have the potential to challenge Kansas and Texas for the Big 12 title. Power forward Wally Judge (Rivals No. 23) and shooting guard Rodney McGruder (No. 91) should make immediate contributions. A potential starting five:
- 1. Denis Clemente
- 2. Jacob Pullen
- 3. Dominique Sutton
- 4. Wally Judge
- 5. Jamar Samuels
Samuels, at 6-7 and 215 pounds, could be a bit undersized for a 5, but this unit is flat-out scary. Coming off the bench: Fred Brown, McGruder, Luis Colon and Ron Anderson.
4. Oklahoma
Obviously, the Sooners offense will have a new look without the services of Blake Griffin. Taylor Griffin and Austin Johnson are also gone.
If Willie Warren comes back for his sophomore season, this will be a nice team with fringe Top 25 potential to start the season. Rivals ranked the Sooners’ 2009 recruiting class No. 12 overall. The class features center Keith Gallon (No. 31 player overall) and point guard Tommy Mason-Griffin (No. 66). Here’s my guess on OU’s starting five:
- 1. Tommy Mason-Griffin
- 2. Willie Warren
- 3. Tony Crocker
- 4. Juan Pattillo
- 5. Keith Gallon
In this scenario, shooting guard Cade Davis and center Ryan Wright would provide decent depth off the bench.
The rest of the field, in one sentence apiece:
5. Oklahoma State: Coach Travis Ford has a trio of four-star recruits for 2009, along with the experience of James Anderson, Keiton Page, Obi Muonelo and Marshall Moses (dangerous team, but will miss the clutch Byron Eaton).
6. Missouri: Notable losses with DeMarre Carroll, Leo Lyons and Matt Lawrence, but everyone else returns, including arguably the most important piece: coach Mike Anderson and his new and improved seven-year contract.
7. Texas A&M: Josh Carter is finally out after what seemed like a 10-year stint in College Station, but the Aggies have several key parts (Donald Sloan, Derrick Roland, B.J. Holmes, Chinemelu Elonu and Bryan Davis) returning.
8. Baylor: Adios to Curtis Jerrells, Henry Dugat and Kevin Rogers, but the Bears have some experience (LaceDarius Dunn, Tweety Carter, Quincy Acy, Josh Lomers) to build on their unexpected Big 12 tournament runner-up and NIT runner-up finishes.
9. Iowa State: If Craig Brackins doesn't bolt for the NBA, the Cyclones could surprise people.
10. Texas Tech: No more Alan Voskuil, but juniors Mike Singletary and John Roberson should make the Red Raiders somewhat decent.
11. Nebraska: Not a whole lot to love right now with the departure of senior Ade Dagunduro and the transfer of Cookie Miller.
12. Colorado: Jermyl Jackson-Wilson was Colorado's lone senior last year.
As always, discuss.
Comments
Brock (anonymous) says...
No sure that Damion James can hack it at the 3. I think that he is just an under-sized 4. Look for Jordan Hamilton to start at the 3 for the Cows.
April 14, 2009 at 6:16 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
zissou (anonymous) says...
Eric, if Willie Warren leaves, how far do you see OU dropping?
April 14, 2009 at 7:58 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
patton6 (anonymous) says...
I'd agree with Brock that Texas will probably look at having two freshman starting with Bradley at the 2 and Hamilton at the 3 - moving James to the 4 (if he returns).
What I'll be much more interested in is to see if the Kansas starting lineup stays the same and if not, which pieces are moved.
April 14, 2009 at 8:15 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
georgeJhawk (anonymous) says...
Willie Warren is gone - he's quit going to classes (a friend of mine has him in class) and is just waiting to announce his intentions to bolt for the NBA. OU will still be pretty good at guard with Tommy Mason-Griffin.
April 14, 2009 at 9:01 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
justanotherfan (anonymous) says...
I think KU's lineup changes significantly, especially if we land either Henry or Stephenson. We aren't recruiting those guys to come in and play 15 mpg. If either one signs, they will start and play a lot, likely either at the expense of Morningstar or Taylor. I see Tyrel Reed's minutes getting cut if we sign Henry or Stephenson.
If we sign Henry or Stephenson, the lineup will probably look like this:
PG - Collins
G - Taylor or Johnson
G/F - Henry or Stephenson
F - Thomas or Mc. Morris
C - Aldrich
Off the bench we'd have Morningstar, Mk. Morris, the Johnson/Taylor non-starter and the Thomas/Mc. Morris non-starter, along with Reed, Releford and Little fighting for the last spot in the rotation. Once second semester rolled around, we'd have Withey, too.
If we don't add anyone else, I think we have this:
PG - Collins
G - Taylor, Morningstar or Johnson
G - Taylor, Morningstar or Johnson
F - Thomas or Mc. Morris
C - Aldrich
Two of the three between Taylor, Morningstar and Johnson start. The other is the first perimeter guy off the bench. Mk. Morris and the non-starter at the 4 are the bigs, along with Withey when he's eligible. Once again, Reed, Releford and Little are fighting for the last spot or two in the rotation.
There is also a very real possibility that Reed or Releford (or both) ends up with a redshirt next year.
Lastly, don't sleep on Missouri and Oklahoma State. Yeah, they both lost some people, but with the way Missouri wants to defend (and can defend), they will give people problems. Oklahoma State returns practically everyone but Eaton, so they will be a handful if they get solid PG play. They also have a strong recruiting class.
April 14, 2009 at 9:01 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
vmwskywalk (anonymous) says...
Eric,
Regarding Texas... You missed a significant transfer in one of last year's 5 star point guards Jai Lucas from Florida. He will be elgible come second semester. If they can replace Balbay with someone who is more of a danger from outside, that will go a long way.
April 14, 2009 at 10:25 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
jhawk613 (anonymous) says...
Texas would be dangerous if Balbay were actually a scoring threat.
I've never seen a guard have more open looks and continually pass on them. UT should have beat Duke in the tourney but Balbay and Mason were afraid to shoot.
If that doesn't change for UT then expect James to get double teams and the defense to sink into the middle and clog the lanes. Remember, UT needs to find another shooter now that Abrams is gone.
I like K-State too. Missouri can finish higher because Mike Anderson recruits workers, not pure talent. He finds guys willing to put the time in to learn the system and by December they will be improved.
It is KU's to lose. Rock Chalk!
April 14, 2009 at 10:47 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
KUPROUD (anonymous) says...
This all sounds good at this point, but I like to keep it real. No one wins anything before the season starts, and then we'll see what we really have. But it's fun to speculate about the possibilities. Just a word of caution: Don't count out Tyrell Reed and Brady Morningstar again playing important roles. Agreed, there's a good chance neither will start or play 20 minutes per game, but their intelligence, experience, and shooting ability will be important to the success of next year's team.
April 14, 2009 at 11:13 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
esorrentino (Eric Sorrentino) says...
Hey zissou, very tough to say. If Warren leaves, you're relying on a ton of inexperience if you're OU. Missouri and Oklahoma State would definitely be more experienced, and without Warren, I'd argue OSU would even be more talented. I'd probably drop OU in between OSU and MU if Warren leaves.
vmw, fantastic point on Jai Lucas. He'll have immediate impact for the 'Horns next season. Fixed.
April 14, 2009 at 11:52 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Jhawk0 (anonymous) says...
Will Curtis Kelly (UConn transfer) be eligible to play for KSU next season? If so, he could provide more offense and start over Sutton. KSU will struggle though since they have to replace Darren Kent's awesome skills.
April 14, 2009 at 12:32 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
esorrentino (Eric Sorrentino) says...
jhawk, nice point on the UConn transfer Kelly. I just read a K-State news release that said Kelly will be eligible to play next season after sitting out last season under the normal rule for transfers. The kid's 6-9 and 235, but I've never seen him play. I think you're right on Sutton being the odd man out if Kelly makes a push to start. There's no way you bump Judge out of the starting 5, and Samuels hasn't reached his ceiling yet, which could be scary next season. I think everyone around here expects K-State to be good next year, but in the national sense, this is a definite sleeper pick for a deep tournament run next season, IMO.
April 14, 2009 at 1:02 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
esj2003 (anonymous) says...
ESorr,
I agree with Kansas at the top, but without landing one of the one-in-done studs in recruiting, it could be a lot closer with Texas. Avery Bradley will probably wind up at the point, and I don't know if you've seen him play much, but YIKES. He and Derrick Favors were the two standouts at the McDonald's All-American game, and he pretty much single-handedly beat Oak Hill in the ESPN Rise National Championship game, winning tourney MVP. Scouts or Rivals just bumped him to the number one recruit in the country, to boot. Watching him, he reminds me a lot of T.J. Ford, but bigger and a hair (HAIR) slower. He'll beat Denis Clemente as the fastest person in the Big 12 with the ball this season. And consider what happens when Texas gets a good point guard (Ford, Gibson, Augustin).
Oklahoma will be a notch below Texas, but still has that potential to be unexpectedly good. Mason-Griffin is the next bulldog-style point guard and Keith Gallon will fill one of Blake Griffin's shoes, though keep an oxygen tank near by for him.
April 14, 2009 at 3:14 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
truehawk93 (anonymous) says...
kuproud (anonymous) says...
This all sounds good at this point, but I like to keep it real. No one wins anything before the season starts, and then we'll see what we really have. But it's fun to speculate about the possibilities. Just a word of caution: Don't count out Tyrell Reed and Brady Morningstar again playing important roles. Agreed, there's a good chance neither will start or play 20 minutes per game, but their intelligence, experience, and shooting ability will be important to the success of next year's team.
kuproud:
i'm real disappointed with both Brady and Reed. I had huge hopes for them as Sophs. They just didn't achieve that consistency needed down the stretch. They've got the ability, but the consistency is lacking! Also, I've seen clips of Releford and he can shoot the three. But, he looked shaky in some of the games. He's great going to the hoop, but even that lacked much needed confidence. I say he redshirts and perfects his shot. He comes back and picks up for season 2010-2011. He'll be a Jr and ready to take names with Collins going to the NBA.
April 14, 2009 at 4:03 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
jayhawkfan96 (anonymous) says...
Texas A&M will be much higher than 7th.
As for the 'Hawks, here are my bold predictions for 2009-2010:
1. Either Tyrell Reed or Travis Releford redshirt. I still don't understand why everyone is so high on Releford. Yes, he is a tremendous athlete. But he has very few actual basketball skills.
2. Walk-on Brady Morningstar is actually more effective playing only 10-15 miutes a game. He'll provide defensive intensity and outside shooting. And yes I said walk-on. I just get the feeling we're going to land two of the four recruits. And Roger Morningstar already said he would pay Brady's tuition if it would help the team.
3. Marcus Morris will see some time at the 3 as KU goes big on occasion. His ball handling ability just make this a no brainer.
4. Mario Little will average in double figures now that he is healthy and back at his natural position. Even if he comes off the bench.
5. Cole Aldrich will be conference POY and 1st Team All-American. He will also be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2010 NBA draft.
6. 30+ wins, 15-1 in conference, Big XII Tournament Champs, and ....
7. Cole, Sherron, and Tyrell if he doesn't redshirt, become the first Jayhawks since the players from the '22 and '23 teams to win multiple National Championships. And I'll be in Lucas Oil Stadium to see it.
April 15, 2009 at 12:57 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
mjp2805 (anonymous) says...
Not sure why people always sleep on A&M. They have been to the tourney 4 years in a row, and have won at least one game each year. They'll be starting 4 seniors with a great recruiting class. I expect them to finish top-4 in conference.
As for KU, I am really excited for next year. I just wish I didn't have to wait 7 months until Late Night.
April 15, 2009 at 9:48 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
coloradojayhawk (anonymous) says...
Anybody else sorry that Cookie fled Nebraska? Thought not.
April 16, 2009 at 12:01 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
esorrentino (Eric Sorrentino) says...
George:
http://www.newsok.com/ous-willie-warr...
April 16, 2009 at 2:47 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
KansaKid (anonymous) says...
Hey tools. You can count on Tyrel Reed playing quite a bit next year. He is way more athletic than most give him credit for. You are being foolish if you think all these newcomer guards are going to give him less minutes than last year per game. He will have 2 years experience playing against and with some of the best D1 players in the USA. He is only going to get better plus we will have him as a Senior after this year. Mary
June 17, 2009 at 7:14 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )