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Opinion: Kansas, No Margin for Error in Quest for Number 1

Here is a look at my top 25 for the week of 1/21:

  1. Duke (3) 16-1 Beat Georgia Tech
  2. Kansas (4) 16-1 Beat Texas
  3. Syracuse (6) 17-1 Beat Louisville
  4. Louisville (1) 16-2 Lost to Syracuse
  5. Michigan (5) 17-1 Beat Minnesota
  6. Indiana (2) 15-2 Lost to Wisconsin
  7. Arizona (7) 16-1 Beat Arizona State
  8. Florida (10) 14-2 Beat Missouri
  9. Butler (13) 16-2 Beat Gonzaga
  10. Gonzaga (8) 17-2 Lost to Butler
  11. Minnesota (9) 15-3 Lost to Michigan
  12. KState (16) 15-2 Beat Oklahoma
  13. Mich St (18) 16-3 Beat Ohio State
  14. Ohio State (11) 13-4 Lost to Michigan State
  15. NC State (14) 14-3 Beat Duke, Lost to Maryland
  16. Creighton (12) 17-2 Lost to Wichita State
  17. NMex (19) 16-2 Beat Boise State
  18. Oregon (21) 16-2 Beat UCLA
  19. VCU (22) 16-3 Beat Duquesne
  20. SDSU (15) 14-4 Lost to Wyoming
  21. N Dame (20) 15-3 Lost to StJohns, Beat Rutgers
  22. Cinci (unranked) 15-3 Beat Marquette
  23. Mizzou (17) 13-4 Lost to Florida
  24. Wichita St (unranked) 17-2 Beat Creighton
  25. Pittsburgh (unranked) 14-4 Beat Connecticut

The AP and coaches polls are due out today and tomorrow, yet they should not be drastically different. At least, notably, in one respect: the Big 12 is a weak basketball conference in '12-'13. I look for Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Baylor, and Oklahoma State to all make the tournament, but the latter half of those teams, respectively, are not really resume builders. The Big 12 has just 2 teams in the top 25 and that really shouldn't change all the much during the course of the rest of the season. Yet conference foes are all Kansas has on its slate prior to Selection Sunday.

Basically, then, Kansas can't drop two or more games to its opponents if it hopes to retain a number one seed for the tournament. The counter-logic to this is that several other conferences are better represented among the top teams in the country, and they will be passing losses back and forth to each other, which is true to a certain extent. In a numbers game, Kansas seems to have the upper hand. The problem is that in the event of a Kansas loss in the Big 12, it is a worse loss than in, for example, the Big East or the Big 10. Kansas has the personnel to make the run to another conference title, but positioning itself for a number one seed means few hiccups between now and early March. Defeating Kansas State on 1/22 at Bramlage would bode very well.

Other big tests are at Iowa on February 25, and at Baylor on March 9.

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