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March 19, 2018
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Updated odds to win 2018 national championship, per Bovada.lv
Odds provide a perspective no doubt, but luck is huge in this single elimination tourney; luck regarding how you are seeded; luck regarding who you actually face; luck regarding how your team will play; how your opponent will play; what refs you get and how they choose to call the game; injuries, sicknesses, off the court distractions and more.
To be sure, its not all luck either. We have a strong and experienced team - among the best in the country - and we have among the very best coaches in the business.
Luck has bitten us before, it might favor us this year...
Shouldn't these odds add up to 100%? But the sum of the the top six teams' odds add up to more than 100%. Odds of 4 in 13 (Duke) = a championship likelihood of over 30%. This means that Duke has an 75% likelihood of winning each of the next 4 games on average. Now Duke is good, but I'd give Kansas, Villanova and Kentucky or Gonzaga a better shot than a 25% chance to beat Duke.
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