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Updated odds to win 2018 national championship, per


Matthew Coleman 10 months ago

Odds provide a perspective no doubt, but luck is huge in this single elimination tourney; luck regarding how you are seeded; luck regarding who you actually face; luck regarding how your team will play; how your opponent will play; what refs you get and how they choose to call the game; injuries, sicknesses, off the court distractions and more.

To be sure, its not all luck either. We have a strong and experienced team - among the best in the country - and we have among the very best coaches in the business.

Luck has bitten us before, it might favor us this year...

Matthew Coleman 10 months ago

Shouldn't these odds add up to 100%? But the sum of the the top six teams' odds add up to more than 100%. Odds of 4 in 13 (Duke) = a championship likelihood of over 30%. This means that Duke has an 75% likelihood of winning each of the next 4 games on average. Now Duke is good, but I'd give Kansas, Villanova and Kentucky or Gonzaga a better shot than a 25% chance to beat Duke.

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