Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Sunflower Showdown analysis

By Tom Keegan

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Reader poll

Who's under the most pressure to win tonight in Bramlage?

  • Kansas 20% 378 votes
  • K-State 37% 680 votes
  • Mike Beasley 31% 575 votes
  • No one really 3% 56 votes
  • It's all equal 7% 145 votes

1834 total votes.

KU, KSU to battle it out at Bramlage

Two undefeateds remain in Big 12 play, and both call the state of Kansas home. Tomorrow the KU men make the drive west to Manhattan to battle with Kansas State at Bramlage Coliseum.

Beasley the one to beat

If Kansas wants to win #25 in a row in Manhattan, the Jayhawks will have to find a way to stop or at least contain Wildcats freshman phenom Michael Beasley.

So much of the Sunflower Showdown pre-game chatter has focused on which Kansas University player will guard Kansas State's Michael Beasley, the nation's leading Player of the Year candidate.

In truth, the most meaningful defense played by Kansas tonight will take place elsewhere, before Beasley gets his hands on the ball. As versatile, powerful, and skilled as Beasley is, even he can't score without first putting his hands on the basketball.

Mario Chalmers and Russell Robinson rank first and second in the Big 12 in steals, averaging a combined 5.1 per game. Those numbers just hint at their combined defensive value. Just as a shot-blocker alters shots by planting fear that never vanishes, ball-hawking guards sap opposing playmakers of their aggressiveness.

In more ghoulish terms, cut off the head and the body will die.

Beasley's season-low, five-point output was the story line in Kansas State's last loss, 103-77, at Xavier on New Year's Eve, but the problems started in the backcourt, where the Wildcats' guards couldn't contain Xavier's. In 59 minutes, Xavier starters Drew Lavender and C.J. Anderson combined for 35 points.

It sounds so simple. KU's guards will suffocate K-State's guards and the Jayhawks will roll to another easy victory.

Not so fast.

It's extremely difficult to limit Beasley's touches because he's a threat from so many different areas on the floor. It's not as if he just sets up on the block and either is fed the ball or isn't involved in the play. He's a threat to score no matter where he gets the ball because he's so skilled at driving to the hoop, has an accurate pull-back jumper, and hits the offensive boards hard.

Freshman point guard Jacob Pullen, who played just 12 minutes against Xavier, plays a bigger role now. During the current five-game winning streak, Pullen has 20 assists and five turnovers. He knows how to get the ball to Beasley, though doing so with Robinson in his face will be the stiffest challenge he's faced.

The Wildcats have some factors working in their favor as well. Despite a 24-game Manhattan losing streak in the series, K-State does have a homecourt advantage. It was a factor last season, when KU had trouble putting a less-talented Wildcats team away, eventually winning, 71-62. The Jayhawks won the game in Lawrence by 27 points.

What does it all mean?

The streets of Lawrence and Manhattan will be empty tonight, nearly everybody in both towns not holding a ticket making a date with their television sets.

Point guard

Russell Robinson, KU, vs. Clent Stewart, K-State

Stewart, a 6-foot-4 senior, couldn't hit the side of an on-campus barn at the beginning of the season, but has really heated up lately from long range. He has made 15 of 29 three-pointers in the past nine games.

Game after game throughout the past three seasons, Robinson, a 6-1 senior, has taken opposing point guards out of their games and frustrated them into panicking.

Advantage: Kansas

l Journal-World sports editor Tom Keegan breaks down the other matchups in tonight's Sunflower Showdown on page 3B.

Shooting guard

Mario Chalmers, KU, vs. Blake Young, K-State

Young, a quick 6-foot-2 senior, is a solid defender but hasn't been the anticipated scoring threat in two seasons at K-State after a strong junior college career.

Chalmers, a 6-1 junior, is above average in every single aspect of the game and leads the team in steals and assists. With the game on the line, there is nobody coach Bill Self would rather have take the big shot.

Advantage: Kansas

Small forward

Brandon Rush, KU, vs. Andrew Gilbert, K-State

Gilbert, a 6-7 junior, is an effective defender and does a decent job on the offensive boards, but has scored in double figures just twice, combining for 38 points in back-to-back games against Rider and Oregon.

In five games since coach Bill Self called him out for not being aggressive enough, 6-6 junior Rush has averaged 15.2 points and 7.4 rebounds. Has made 17 of 30 three-point shots during that stretch.

Advantage: Kansas

Power forward

Darrell Arthur, KU, vs. Bill Walker, K-State

Walker, a 6-foot-6 freshman, has hit half of his three-point shots in the last 10 games, nine of them victories. He's just as big a threat down low, where he uses his bulk and explosiveness. Averaging 15.8 points and 6.6 rebounds.

A major talent, 6-9 sophomore Arthur has a chance to measure himself against a big-time front line. Given a similar opportunity last season against Florida, Arthur responded with 19 points and nine rebounds.

Advantage: Kansas State

Center

Darnell Jackson, KU, vs. Michael Beasley, K-State

Leading candidate for national Player of the Year honors, 6-foot-10 freshman Beasley is an extraordinary rebounder and natural scorer. Ultra-strong lefty shoots well with both hands near the hoop and does a terrific job of drawing fouls.

Jackson, a 6-9 senior, averages 12.8 points and 7.4 rebounds in 24.3 minutes. A year ago, Julian Wright averaged 12 points and 7.8 rebounds in 27.6 minutes. Staying out of foul trouble against Beasley won't be easy.

Advantage: Kansas State

Bench

During K-State's current five-game winning streak, freshman point guard Jacob Pullen has 20 assists and four turnovers. Freshman small forward Dominique Sutton, a major talent, doesn't know the offense yet and is scoreless in the past three games. Darren Kent, a 6-10 junior, made 3 of 3 three-pointers in last game.

Sherron Collins had 20 points in last season's KU nine-point victory at Bramlage, but has reached double figures in scoring just twice in the past nine games. Sasha Kaun gives Beasley one more big body in his way on his path to the hoop. Cole Aldrich's playing time could depend on the foul trouble in front of him.

Advantage: Kansas

Comments

bykcin (anonymous) says...

I think the bench section is messed up

January 30, 2008 at 4:07 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

mojayhawk (anonymous) says...

BENCH

Kaun, Collins, Stewart

Advantage: Kansas

January 30, 2008 at 4:22 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

klineisanazi (anonymous) says...

Yeah, that can't be right. KU has fouls to give in my opinion, and Beasley has been prone to foul trouble himself. KSU is improved on its bench with Sutton, who is athletic, but the nod has to go to KU and its not even close.

January 30, 2008 at 4:48 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

stevemize (anonymous) says...

Kansas definitely has the advantage in bench play.

January 30, 2008 at 5:03 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

Nutflush21 (anonymous) says...

You guys are all wrong. Beasley is so freaking good that he comes off the bench too. Therefore advantage K-Suck.

January 30, 2008 at 5:19 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

slantrox (anonymous) says...

Yea, this ones messed up, read the Cap Journal breakdown!

January 30, 2008 at 6:59 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

blk99stang (anonymous) says...

lol nutflush, that comment made me chuckle

January 30, 2008 at 7:01 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

slantrox (anonymous) says...

I think the Bench analysis is messed up in the Star also!

I think KSU has some decent bench help, but who's bench are you really going to take if you got to choose?!

Come on pencil heads!!

January 30, 2008 at 7:04 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

yates33333 (anonymous) says...

I think the entire article is messed up.

January 30, 2008 at 7:11 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

Timmay97 (anonymous) says...

You know, the one comment I don't see anyone making is the fact that Beasley has to defend too. KU has 4 guys that he'll have to go up against, which means 20 fouls to give. Beasley only has 5 fouls himself. Don't be surprised if Beasley gets into foul trouble in the first half. It would be a good scenario for KU as K-State's offense runs through Beasley.

KU is so active and moving on offense that's it's not hard for players to pick up fouls. KU is more versatile at EVERY position while K-State has one player that's versatile.

Game Advantage - KU

January 30, 2008 at 7:21 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

TaCityHawkFan (anonymous) says...

It is my estimation that we'll see Rush locking down on Bill Walker! Then Jackson and Arthur rotating on Beasley (with some Kaun minutes thrown in). The other big will probably rotate over to Andrew Gilbert.

January 30, 2008 at 7:56 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

jayhawkinatl (anonymous) says...

After reading the CapJournal, the above my be correct as printed. I mean after all, the traitor (Keegan) is listed as picking KSU to win. Maybe he's just trying to get our guys riled up.

January 30, 2008 at 7:59 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

jayhawkinatl (anonymous) says...

Right on, Timmay97!!!!

January 30, 2008 at 8 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

Lebowski (anonymous) says...

And the last time I checked, they don't pull the other 8 guys off the floor and let each position square off in a game of one-on-one. This isn't the pre-zone era NBA, either. There are going to be zero technical fouls called for "illegal defense".... just a wild guess, there!!

I think it makes absolutely no sense to evaluate college basketball teams this way.

KU has more capable scorers, more outside shooters, just as good or better post offense, better perimeter defenders, better post defenders and a deeper bench. And oh yeah... far, far more experience.

KSU needs to hit a lot of threes and beg for a lot of calls. There's my expert analysis!!

January 30, 2008 at 9:35 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

KUbsee69 (anonymous) says...

As my ol' pappy used to say (not really):

"Age and treachery beats youth and exuberance every time".

I think KU's experience will be the difference. The young kitten's exuberance, as indicated by their boasts, will succumb to the Hawk's Senior leadership and TEAM experience. If Self can just throw in some treachery, like maybe the red uniforms, we'll have the complete formula.

Go Hawks, punish the purple!!!

January 30, 2008 at 9:42 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

ChicagoJHawk (anonymous) says...

Timmay97, you are exactly right. I've been saying the same thing all along too, Beasley is good but we have 4 bigs that he'll have to go against. It will be a good game but we're just a more talented, much deeper & more experienced team than they are. Advantage: KU. Rock Chalk!

January 30, 2008 at 9:54 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

KUMatt2001 (anonymous) says...

COACH

Bill Self vs. Frank Martin

Blah blah blah, National Coach of the Year, blah blah blah, Big 12 Coach of the Year, blah blah 125 wins in under five seasons, blah blah

High school coach, blah blah, terminated amid controversy, blah blah blah, first season, blah blah

Advantage: Kansas

January 30, 2008 at 10:28 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

jtb (anonymous) says...

Isn't there a KC radio station that broadcasts the game over the internet? I can't get anything in Birmingham, and don't have espn+.
Thanks

January 30, 2008 at 11:17 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

kcwizard71 (anonymous) says...

I just got off the phone with Bill Self. He told me his game plan against K-State tonight. He's going to start Kleinmann. Before the game starts, Kleinmann has been told to stare down Beasley while laughing and pointing at him. Then, when the game starts and Beasley jumps up for the ball...Kleinmann is going to jump for Beasley's balls! It should be quite a sight!

January 30, 2008 at 11:27 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

halogenlamps (anonymous) says...

go here for a list of all radio stations carrying the game, and then google each station and find their live webcast:

http://www.kusports.com/basketball/ra...

go here to sign up for a live webcast from kuathletics for 9.95 per month

http://kuathletics.cstv.com/allaccess/

If you choose to go to a free webcast, you will need to do so at least an hour before the game because all the space will be filled up and you will be stuck reloading adn reloading until you manage to find a second when someone leaves and before someone else comes in. I know from lot of experience!!

January 30, 2008 at 11:46 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

rgreene (Ryan Greene) says...

I fixed the bench part. Sorry for the mistake.

January 30, 2008 at 11:59 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

jayhawkinatl (anonymous) says...

Speaking of getting a couple of calls to go their way, PLEASE, PLEASE do not allow this game to be reffed by Hightower!!!!

January 30, 2008 at 12:08 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

Strikewso (anonymous) says...

Hightower is still around? People were complaining about him when I went to KU in the 80s. Geez, some things never change. Arthur has the advantage over Walker, and good point about the coach matchup. I also would not be a bit surprised if Jackson eats Beasely's lunch tonight.

January 30, 2008 at 12:16 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

Yahweh (anonymous) says...

I know I'm late on this one, but the Mizzou stuff is hilarious. The ESPN article (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/st...), if you're behind the times like me, makes Columbia out to be Dodge City circa 1865. I wonder if there is a single person in that town who isn't a criminal.

I can't even ramble on about it this time, the article says it all.

January 30, 2008 at 12:29 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

Yahweh (anonymous) says...

Stop it, Keegan! You actually backed your opinions up with some facts in the second half of this article. I don't ever want to see you doing this sort of thing again. It throws off my whole universe!

January 30, 2008 at 12:35 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

Lebowski (anonymous) says...

LOL What a great day to be a Missouri fan. I can't believe they even acknowledge themselves as such when commenting on that article. What on earth do you root for? Boot them from the Big 12! There has to be better team than Mizzou that we can beat up on every year.

January 30, 2008 at 12:53 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

dagger108 (anonymous) says...

TaCityHawkFan - It is my estimation that we'll see Rush locking down on Bill Walker! Then Jackson and Arthur rotating on Beasley (with some Kaun minutes thrown in). The other big will probably rotate over to Andrew Gilbert.

I think you hit it on the nose with that one. We need Arthur's minutes/fouls defending Beasley, and BRush is more capable of defending Billy. I'd say Advantage KU in both SF and PF.

January 30, 2008 at 12:54 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

Studogg (anonymous) says...

jtb,
if you have espn360.com, I think it will be on there. If not, try 610sports.com

Good luck!

January 30, 2008 at 1:33 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

Yahweh (anonymous) says...

Yeah, Mizzou is total clown shoes.

January 30, 2008 at 2:13 p.m. ( | suggest removal )