Opinion: Time to throw out theories for tournament success

A local salesman I bumped into while I was shopping for sweets, I mean groceries, looked up the aisle, then over his right shoulder, then over his left and only then, when he knew the coast was clear, he whispered an opinion with as much conviction as a whisper can carry.

“They need to lose in the conference tournament,” he said.

Huh?

“KU needs to lose in the conference tournament,” he repeated. “You win that thing and you’re too tired to do anything in the tournament. They need to lose.”

I headed up the aisle and he left the store, perhaps heading to confession to beg forgiveness for his sacrilegious tongue.

It’s the time of year when minds begin searching for March Madness patterns. I never really thought much of that theory. After all, to win a Big 12 conference tournament requires a team to be playing good enough basketball to win three games in three days, an indication of peaking at the right time. But the whisperer seemed so convinced of the importance of KU losing in the Sprint Center that I decided to see if numbers back him up.

Well, as it turns out, it doesn’t make much of a difference, but the slight variation in numbers actually indicates winning the conference tournament is a better predictor of success the rest of the way.

Under coach Bill Self, Kansas is 13-4 with a national title in the five seasons it won the conference tourney. It is 10-4 with a national runner-up finish in the other four years.

Self alluded to one common denominator shared by most teams that win it all: They go through a rough stretch during the regular season.

“It seems like it’s always that way and it toughens them and it hardens them and that kind of stuff,” Self said. “Nobody likes going through the stuff, but there’s only a certain point in time in a season when you become a team and we’ve just become a team here in the last three or four weeks.”

KU’s 1988 underdogs that won the national title lost four in a row to fall to 12-8. Self’s 2008 national champs went 37-3. The losses came in a seven-game stretch, including 2 of 3 at the end. Breaking from a three-game losing streak midway through the Big 12 season, Kansas seeks its eighth consecutive victory today at 5 p.m. against Baylor in Waco. Interesting. Very interesting.

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utahjayhawk 2 months, 2 weeks ago

I completely agree with the grocery store guy. I think losing in the conference tournament, especially anywhere except the final, makes the team dissatisfied and hungry going into the only tournament that matters.

Your data aren't really convincing -- a better analysis would have been to assess how far each of those teams progressed, outside of the '08 and '12 teams, and weight the results accordingly.

dylans 2 months, 2 weeks ago

7-4 vs 5-4

Why throw out 2008? That's an actual win. It seems that studying what was done that year could be enlightening, being as almost every other year ended in a loss.

Dogbert579 2 months, 2 weeks ago

7-4 v. 5-3... check your math

nostradavid 2 months, 2 weeks ago

It sounds like you were listening to the Devil. I would have thrown salt over my shoulder after I put him behind me.

The Jayhawks need to let it all hang out, just like ...

Cab Calloway. by nostradavid

BringBackMark 2 months, 2 weeks ago

Many years, especially with young teams, I might agree a loss would make them hungry. This is a mature group with their eye on the prize. Momentum will benefit this team more than a loss.

personman 2 months, 2 weeks ago

There's no way to gauge this stuff unless the gauger is smarter than humanly possible. I just can't help but think about how much momentum Sherron and everyone had in 2010 going into the NCAA tournament, after such an outstanding Big 12 tournament (and regular season). That was a fairly veteran team, too. And then there was last year's team that had a sub-par game in the conference tourney and then found ways to win in the NCAAs. I'm with you though in that I feel like this year's team would benefit best from a strong conference tourney run (and I just happen to enjoy watching the Jayhawks win no matter what, anyway!).

klineisanazi 2 months, 2 weeks ago

1988 is not very useful for comparison to anything except it is good to have a lot of upsets in your bracket so you can get momentum and it is always nice to have the best player in the country on the floor and one of the best coaches ever on your bench. Perfect storm!

leonard 2 months, 2 weeks ago

It was a wild ride for Danny and the Miracles. They finished out the regular season with a 9-8 record over the last 17 games. Starting with the loss to ISU they lost 5 games in a row...followed by 5 straight wins...then 2 losses...then 4 wins...and then a loss in the second round of the conference tourney.

And then the miracle started to take shape.

Coming in as a 6 seed they took care of business in the 1st round by beating (11) Xavier, OH. In the second round it was a squeaker over (14) Murray State...who were there by virtue of upsetting (3) NC State. The third round produced a victory over (7) Vanderbilt...who had upset (2) Pittsburgh.

Then the real fun started. They thumped (4) K-State in the regional finals. Then they avenged an earlier loss to (2) Duke in the semi's...and finally the magical win over (1) OU for the miracle finish and national championship.

LTCUSARet 2 months, 2 weeks ago

Let's reframe what happened back then. It didn't begin to gel for the team in 1988 until Larry Brown moved Danny to center to replace academically ineligible Marvin Branch, starting Milt Newton in Danny's place at forward. Then -- after going through Lincoln Minor, Otis Livingston and Scooter Barry -- Brown moved Kevin Pritchard from SG to PG starting with the January 30 game against KState. KU lost that game, and the next game against OU. The last move Larry made was to begin starting sophomore Jeff Gueldner at SG (he ended up starting 16 games that year) after moving Pritchard to the point.

KU finished 9-3 in their last 12 games before the NCAAs, with the three losses being to eventual Final Four participants Duke (in OT in a midseason non-con game) and Oklahoma and eventual Regional Championship game opponent Kansas State. That stretch of games made that team into the never say die contenders who believed they could beat anyone, and did when it mattered most.

JJHAWK 2 months, 2 weeks ago

LTC - wonderful post. My jaded (possibly faded) memories from that era (besides Danny) was Jeff Gueldner's wondrous 3 inch vertical leap ability (please forgive me Jeff I was always a fan). Gueldner did more with less than any player I can remember. I think his true ability was magic because he was always in the right spot.

I carry memories of that championship game with me - probably forever. The big ones for me, in that unbelievable first half, one of the deadly Oklahoma 3-point sharpshooters was totally covered up in the right hand corner of the court, and with time expiring while falling out of bounds backwards lofted a 3-point shot and swished it. And who could forget one of the greatest of all hardcourt thieves - Oklahoma's Mookie Blaylock - who picked Scooter Berrys pocket at midcourt so cleanly that Berry's uniform looked freshly washed afterwards. And then there was that KU fast break where Danny's finish got stuffed by the very athletic Oklahoma big man. On our side, Who can forget Milt Newton going five for five, and our walk-on football player (Noramore I believe) draining that three from the top of the key. And after the championship game he never played another minute of KU BB. And then in the second half when Oklahoma started pulling away (their patented pattern for NCAA games that year), somehow, someway we found a way to get back in the game. And at the end, everyone remembers Danny's two huge clutch free throws to seal it. Another very fond memory of that game was the KU band. They played great. What a game - what a memory.

TheSychophant 2 months, 2 weeks ago

I was at the game. The turning point came in the second half with the OU up 65-60 and Pritchard bring the ball up court. At around half court, Mookie Blaylock embarrassingly picked Kevin's pocket--a point guard he was not--drove to the left wing, and launched an uncontested three which appeared to be 3/4 through the hoop before miraculously spinning out. An eight point lead would have been the biggest margin of the game, and may have sunk the Hawks. Instead, the near-miss energized the Hawks, and they stormed back, eventually maintaining the lead until Danny sealed it with his four free throws.

What a game.

icthawkfan316 2 months, 2 weeks ago

Remember that UConn team that won it a couple of years ago? Had to play in 4 straight games in their conference tournament, and had played an insane amount of games in a short period of time. Yeah...I bet they were tired ;)

LTCUSARet 2 months, 2 weeks ago

And they were led by a PG who suddenly began paying the best of his career.

JayDogger 2 months, 2 weeks ago

They played five Big East Tourney games. There's a double-bye and they had to play in all of them. Also, they won the Maui Tournement at the beginning of the season (over KenSucky in the final game). So they went undefeated in three tough tournements, 14-0.

Kemba Walker was awesome to watch that year. The championship game against Butler was pretty much the worst ever. Man, I wish we could have beat VCU and played in that game against UConn.

icthawkfan316 2 months, 2 weeks ago

I rethought the 4 games comment I made a few times, but I had convinced myself there weren't THAT many teams in the Big East that they'd be required to play 5 games.

Thanks for the correction.

LAJayhawk 2 months, 2 weeks ago

JayDogger is correct, they did win 5 games in 5 days, but what's even more crazy is that they lost 4 of their last 5 regular season games, including losing the last 2 to an unranked West Virginia team, and 7th ranked Notre Dame at home.

Then they won 11 straight. Go figure.

stm62 2 months, 2 weeks ago

The Big 12 conference tournament rewards conference losers and punishes the winner of the regular season. It is very difficult to win the regular season, then win the Big Twelve tournament, and finally win a national title.

LSHawk 2 months, 2 weeks ago

Losing is never a good idea, period. Besides they get a week off before they play a game in the NCAA so no way would winning the Big 12 make them any more tired, the only concern about playing 3 straight days is injuries.

LSHawk 2 months, 2 weeks ago

sorry forgot to add.....knock on wood.....

JayhawkRock78 2 months, 2 weeks ago

Born, I see it differently. The end of year conference tourneys offer more of a downside to the regular season champs as they look bad if they don't win out. Meanwhile alsorans and bottom feeders can redeem themselves by putting together a few wins. The bottom team in a conference can punch a ticket to the dance by winning its tourney. Same thing can happen in football with conference playoffs. Many a time a football team has been in line for the title game, only to be knocked out by an end of year conference playoff. It doesn't help the conference leader, just helps the others and brings money to the conference. Since ku is normally on top, I'd rather skip the conference tourney but that's not an option.

Anyway, GO KU, beat the bears!!!

mikehawk 2 months, 2 weeks ago

I, too, tend to emotionally agree with the "grocery store guy," On the other hand, losing is never good. I'm going with the "one game at a time" approach. Let's take care of business tonight, and go from there. The big thing about the conference tournament, it is good to play under the pressure of win or you are out, which is a different set of dynamics from anything else you face during the season. The good thing is...the Seniors. They have seen a lot and been in all sorts of situations, and that helps. Also, it seems to me Coach gets more of the other players off of the bench in the games for longer stretches during the conference tournament. If that happens, it sets the stage for having them help out in dire situations in the Big Dance, and by the way, defaults for getting them ready for offseason and next year.

Got my KU garb on down here in Oklahoma. I would never wear any OSU stuff, but I'm a big Cowboys fan today. If KSU can beat OSU at G-I today, they deserve to share the crown with us despite our beating them both times. But, I think OSU will take them. The Big 12 player of the year will be decided today. The player with the biggest game between Smart, Ben, and Jeff, who leads his team to victory, will probably win the honor. Personally, I think the Player of the Year in the Big 12, all considered, and no matter what happens today, is Jeff Withey. Game in, game out, from tip to buzzer, home or road, what player has been a bigger factor affecting not only his guy, but everyone else, and contributes on both ends of the court?

JayDogger 2 months, 2 weeks ago

Agree...Jeff Withey for POY. I think McGruder should be in the conversation, along with Osby from OU (those five would be pretty good 1st Team All Big 12).

JayDogger 2 months, 2 weeks ago

Add Pierre Jackson to that list. Not sure which won't make the cut for top five.

milehighhawk 2 months, 2 weeks ago

Cool article, Keegs

Table_Rock_Jayhawk 2 months, 2 weeks ago

I just keep going back to 2008 when we won both the league and the conference tourney.

Whatever the venue is...we need to win all games from here on out.

hawklahoma 2 months, 2 weeks ago

Hey Mikehawk I'm with you I was thinking about trying to get tickets to the osu ksu game go in cheer on the cowboys in full KU attire.Butt than I thought about not getting home intime to watch our game. As for losing the big Xll tourney I've considered the early exit rest idea myself. But only if we win the regular season outright if not go in and show who's boss. Besides that's a few extra games to catch up to kensucky RCJH!!!!!

jhox 2 months, 2 weeks ago

At the end of the day, success really comes down to how talented and focused your team is. This team is capable of winning it all. My biggest fear is that we've not always been focused in the first 3 rounds of the NCAA tourney, and that's when our talented teams have tended to lose. If we get by the first weekend we'll probably get to the Final 4.

Personally, I think Indiana has the most talented roster, but I doubt they win it all. Duke will be tough with a healthy team once again. Michigan State and Duke are two teams I'd be inclined to pick to win it all. Both are talented and have coaches with a knack for getting their teams ready to play every tournament game. We're talented and well enough coached to beat any school in the country, but we need to "bring it" from the first round game on. We can't afford to have a lapse of focus (as the TCU game proved.)

jgkojak 2 months, 2 weeks ago

I think losing is always bad.

You have a team this year that seems to have a fragile confidence. Not every player responds to failure by manning up and feeling the need to prove themselves - sometimes, they see it as vindication of all the negative things they believe about themselves. I would suggest that EJ and Withey fall into that category (though Withey is playing at such a high level it may not be apparent).

The more games these guys win and the further they go, including not displaying any weaknesses in the B12 tournament, the better these guys future is - BMac is for sure a Top 5, but KU gets to the final four, he's #1 for sure Withey is a lottery pick if he leads KU to a national title Travis and EJ probably get some looks for a late 2nd round, especially if they have big games on the big stage KY is polishing his resume for Europe, where he'll probably make better money than a lot of NBA back-benchers

An early B12 Tourney exit, and the shine is off. I'd argue the best outcome for the individuals and for this team is to win out.

JayDogger 2 months, 2 weeks ago

I wonder how much tourney success adds to a player's draft stock? My feeling is that NBA scouts and GMs don't give it much. If they were mediocre before the tourney and do well then it's a fluke in the college game. If they're great and do great in the tourney then they were already ranked high in draft stock.

As much as I would love for Withey to be a lottery pick I don't think he will be anymore likely even if (when) we get a NC (though there's a decent chance that he could be even if we don't make the Final Four). But, of course, this is just my opionion and that's not saying much.

wissoxfan83 2 months, 2 weeks ago

That last paragraph will not win Tom this years Pulitzer prize. I'm still trying to figure out what it's saying and how it relates to conference tourneys.

HighEliteMajor 2 months, 2 weeks ago

Tournament success? What's that?

Try winning a title for success.

1] Be a 1 seed .. #1 seeds have won 18 of the last 25 tournaments.

2] Don't be below a 4 seed .. only one team below a 4 seed has won in the last 25 years (KU in 1988 as a 6 seed).

3] But 2 seeds have only won 2 times in the last 25 years; 3 seeds 4 times; 4 seeds just once.

Being a number one seed is the most important factor in winning the tournament. No doubt.

If you want to get to a Final Four, 42 of the last 100 Final Four teams have been #1 seeds.

Conference tournament, win, lose, momentum, rest, rough stretch, etc. --- the most common denominator for teams winning it all is being a #1 seed.

We are on the cusp of being a #1 seed .. keep winning.

wissoxfan83 2 months, 2 weeks ago

Don't let the facts get in the way of a stupid column HEM.

JayDogger 2 months, 2 weeks ago

I totally agree with you but I think it's worth pointing out that the reason #1 seeds win is because they are one of the top-four teams to begin with. Of course, the seeding helps, too. It's always interesting to look at the difference between causation and correlation, which I'm sure you understand well.

Bottom line, winning in the past is a predicter of winning in the future, so let's keep winning.

Brunswickboy63 2 months, 2 weeks ago

Let's just win the rest of the games!!!! Work's for me. Rock Chalk!

JayDogger 2 months, 2 weeks ago

I think some years it matters more than others, though it can never be proven. Last year I didn't think it mattered much and I was kind of hoping for a bit of rest for what seemed like a tired team. This year I would just like to keep momentum and keep winning, which would all but guarentee a #1 seed (which is huge, as per HEM).

Because last year's team was a bit under the radar I think the Big 12 tourney mattered less. Also, I could be wrong, but I felt like the team didn't want to risk losing to Mizzery after winning the season. It was sort of fun denying them the rematch. Maybe I'm way off base on that.

raprichard 2 months, 2 weeks ago

I agree with HEM above. I want to be a number 1 seed. I know people have different opinions, but I would much rather be a 1 than a 2.

Also, with this team, I think the biggest factor for them is confidence. When they went through the losing stretch, their confidence was shot. As a result, they lacked energy and they clearly were not having fun. When this team plays with confidence, they play loose and they have fun. Good things almost always happen. Win the Big 12 title, have some confidence, get a #1 seed, don't underestimate anyone in the Big Dance, and I like our chances.

DanR 2 months, 2 weeks ago

Is anyone else sort of annoyed that the Big 12 calls the conference tournament the "Big 12 Championship"? If not, allow me to present Exhibit A: (2012 Big 12 Champions Mizzou Tigers T-shirt)

drgnslayr 2 months, 2 weeks ago

For us (a regular pick to make the NCAA tourney), our league tourney doesn't appear to mean much.

But it does mean more than it appears.

The ability to win out a tourney that is meaningless says something. It says we don't overlook anyone at anytime.

Something to think about through the early rounds of the big dance... not to overlook anyone.

We should come hungry regardless the situation... pride should always be in place!

So if KSU falls on their faces today, we should still put a slug in Baylor. Leave no doubt about who deserves our league trophy. Same goes with the league tourney. And we know what we have to do after that...

Rock Relentless Chalk!

LAJayhawk 2 months, 2 weeks ago

How the last 10 National Champions fared in their respective conference tournaments:

2012 - Kentucky -- Lost in the championship to Vandy

2011 - Connecticut -- Won 5 games in 5 days after losing 4 of their last 5 regular season games

2010 - Duke -- Won

2009 - UNC -- Lost in the Semi's to FSU

2008 - KU -- Won

2007 - Florida -- Won

2006 - Florida -- Won

2005 - UNC -- Lost in the Semi's to Georgia Tech

2004 - Connecticut -- Won

2003 - Syracuse -- Lost in the 2nd round to UConn

So what does all of that tell me? Abso-freaking-lutely nothing. So just go play and try to win every game you are in.

TheSychophant 2 months, 2 weeks ago

You are spot on. It means nothing. But you go out there and win, win, win.

globaljaybird 2 months, 2 weeks ago

At the half from Gallagher Iba Arena...

Tweety bird 36-Sylvester 30...

One's as good as a hundred, but I'd rather see a beatdown.

Men's Basketball

Keegan

Opinion: Time to throw out theories for tournament success

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