Advertisement

Advertisement

Monday, October 29, 2012

Keegan

Opinion: Jayhawks’ next top scorer tough to predict

Kansas guard Elijah Johnson looks to push the ball up the court as he is defended by Long Beach State forward James Ennis during the first half on Tuesday, Dec. 6, 2011 at Allen Fieldhouse.

Kansas guard Elijah Johnson looks to push the ball up the court as he is defended by Long Beach State forward James Ennis during the first half on Tuesday, Dec. 6, 2011 at Allen Fieldhouse.

Advertisement

Kansas University basketball coach Bill Self called Elijah Johnson, Jeff Withey and Travis Releford “without question our best scorers on the team,” Monday and added “that’s not good because they were the third, fourth and fifth scorers last year.”

In other words, it’s business as usual for Self’s powerhouse basketball program. The top scorers are gone and his team is a bona fide threat to make it to the Final Four.

Self lost Sherron Collins and Xavier Henry, the two leading scorers (28.9 combined points per game) from the 2009-2010 team that went 33-3 and was upset by Northern Iowa in the round of 32, and had no problem rebounding from that.

He lost Marcus and Markieff Morris (combined 30.8) from a 35-3 team that lost an Elite Eight game to Virginia Commonwealth and promoted a pair of complementary starters to primary scoring roles.

Now, Self must replace the 34.3 points Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor combined to score and it’s not quite as easy this season guessing which players will develop into the leading scorers.

For now, Self said it’s the three returning starters, but with a deep freshman class with their hands out for shots, it will be interesting to see how the points are distributed.

“We’ve got more guys who can get the ball in the basket, but more guys doesn’t necessarily equate to 35 a game,” Self said of replacing Robinson and Taylor’s points. “Maybe more balance than last year, but I don’t know if we have more scoring punch than last year. We might before it’s all said and done.”

Perry Ellis arrives at Kansas as a more natural scorer than Robinson did, and Robinson grew into a 17.7-ppg scorer by his junior season.

“Perry could be a natural scorer and get six if he doesn’t put himself in position to score,” Self said. “Thomas could play bad and get you 15.”

A look at the leading candidates to lead Self’s 10th Kansas team in scoring, with odds in parentheses:

Johnson (3-2): With the ball in his hands, he’ll drive to the hoop more often than a year ago when that was Tyshawn Taylor’s role. More drives means more trips to the foul line.

Plus, it’s easy to picture Johnson improving his .338 three-point accuracy rate from a year ago, when he averaged 10.2 points.

His savvy and the strong probability he will lead the team in minutes make him the safest bet.

Ben McLemore (4-1): A 6-foot-5 red-shirt freshman Self has compared to three-time KU leading scorer Brandon Rush, McLemore has the capability of scoring points in bunches via the three-point shot and on put-backs, his top two offensive skills.

Ellis (5-1): He will need to play a more physical brand of basketball and have a consistently hot motor in daily practice before Self rewards him with the starting position his talent merits. Once he gets there, his smooth moves close to the basket and soft touch from the perimeter make him a legitimate candidate to lead the team in scoring every year he plays at Kansas.

Withey (8-1): His moves aren’t smooth enough for him to become this team’s top scorer, and the easy buckets that came when defenses loaded up on Robinson won’t be there. He could become the team’s MVP, but the leading scorer? That’s a stretch.

Releford (10-1): Led the team in scoring in last season’s first two Big 12 games with 16 points against Kansas State and 28 at Oklahoma, but never before and never after. He’s a versatile contributor who does just about everything well, but does not have a pure enough shot to be this team’s go-to scorer.

The Field (100-1): It always pays to include the field, just in case a player now considered raw blossoms way sooner than expected and becomes a phenomenal player.

Freshman guard Rio Adams, an explosive, long-armed, 6-3 combo guard from Seattle three times led the state of Washington in scoring and had a 54-point game as a sophomore.

Comments

JayhawkRock 2 years ago

Am I the only one that thinks this benefits KU? I wouldn't dare compare this team to the 2008 team but that team was hard to predict who would be the top scorers too.

I guess my point is that any one that was in the rotation in 2008 could score in bunches, even Kaun had a big game against Davidson in the tournament and we wouldn't have won without him.

Hard for other teams to prepare for KU if they don't know who is going to step up and score.

KansasComet 2 years ago

McLemore, Ellis, and AW3. They should be good for over 30.

jaybate 2 years ago

Elijah is it.

He's going to get 15 FGAs/game for a few games to see if he can get to the hole consistently and make his treys at 38-40%. If he can, then he could become the guard under Self to average 17 ppg.

BenMac is going to be the designated stretcher and back door alley oop guy. 12-4

Travis is going to be the guy who operates wing point about a third of the time. 12-4.

Ellis will average 10-5 first half season, then 15-10 in conference.

Withey will be 10-10.

Jeremy Bolinger 2 years ago

Yessir. I dont know know how there can even be a debate about this. He will play minutes than any freshman, and he will have the ball in his hands on every possession. This isn't even debatable.

Dirk Medema 2 years ago

Jay - It appears that nota was agreeing with Jaybate tht EJ will have more minutes than any Frosh and be the leading scorer.

KGphoto 2 years ago

Withey wil be 12-10... and 5!

Scott MacWilliams 2 years ago

Correct me if I'm wrong, but seems that the 2008 team had something like 8 different guys take turns as top scorer, 5 averaged 10-13 ppg, and none of them made the Big 12 first team!! BALANCED ! ! ! This team might be headed in that direction....

Rock Chalk!!

Jeremy Bolinger 2 years ago

That team was very balanced, and I dont think this team is even close to that team. So much youth at all positions. That team had something like 7 NBA players on it, as well as the fact that it was dominated by juniors and seniors. While I think this team has at least that many future stars, I think its a little premature to assume it.

David Leathers 2 years ago

You want a repeat of the '08 team? Wait for the 2014-15 season....

1 - Tharpe (Sr) / Rio (Jr) / Mason (So) / Frankamp (So)

2 - Seldon (So) / Manning (Jr) -- Yes I think he'll be that good.

3 - McLemore (Jr)? / AWIII (Jr)? / Greene (So)

4/5 - P.Ellis (Jr)? / Traylor (Jr)? / Peters (Jr) / Lucas (Jr)

? - indicates possible jump to the league (given Self's track record with player development)

Forgive me if I have missed anybody. Obviously if Embiid or any of the other high profile players that we're after commit they would also be included in this amazingly deep roster of players. In this type of situation though, I wouldn't be surprised to see transfers/resdhirts.

RJ King 2 years ago

First Team Big 12 2008: Michael Beasley (F) and D.J. Augustine (G) - unanimous Curtis Jarells, Baylor (G) Brandon Rush (G) Darrell Arthur (F) Blake Griffin (F)

Chalmers 2nd team, Jackson 3rd team

All defense: Chalmers, Robinson 6th Man: Collins

Eliott Reeder 2 years ago

Tom is silly not to mention AWIII in this article!!!

David Leathers 2 years ago

For me it's tough to mention any of the freshmen. Given the expectations of Xavier Henry and Josh Selby, I think it's a fair assumption that Self prefers experience over talent (though he prefers a combination of the two). I think AW3 will be an amazing player and a gifted scorer. I just don't think he has better than 20-1 odds to lead years team in scoring.

texashawk10 2 years ago

White is part of the field. I don't see any reason to have him as a serious contender to lead the team in scoring. White simply won't play the minutes to have a chance to do that. If a freshman is going to lead this team in scoring, it will be McLemore. Ellis will have a chance, but it doesn't sound like he's aggressive enough yet to do that this year.

Jeffrey Nichols 2 years ago

White is going to be the 1st guy off the bench on the perimeter. He has a pure stroke, and could easily slide into a a Tyrel Reed type of player - catch and pop from the open spaces created by good ball movement. Plus, he is smooth to the glass. Probably won't lead the team in scoring, but he's better than 100-1 odds to be the high scorer. Certainly a greater chance of him leading than Rio Adams.

texashawk10 2 years ago

That's for tonight, we'll see what the rotation is when KY comes back. I agree with individual odds that White should be higher than Adams but neither one is going to come close to leading the team in scoring. If his role is as a sniper, then he'll have no chance to the team in scoring for a year. Reed's best year was 9.7 his senior year and that was playing starters minutes. White has to earn minutes from Releford which means White will be playing under 15 minutes per game. White could lead the team in scoring for an individual game if he gets hot from 3 in a game and nails 4 or 5 of them.

Dirk Medema 2 years ago

White deserves at least as much mention as Rio, but I'm guessing he is the understudy to Travis and BMac. A great understudy, but 2nd fiddle none the less.

Eliott Reeder 2 years ago

Sure, but at least mention him as part of 'the field'. I would wager a bundle that he will lead the team in scoring at least a couple times this year.

Steve Gantz 2 years ago

My first thought when I saw the headline was Elijah. Always go with your first thoughts. The way he was playing at the end of the year was encouraging to say the least.

It's always fun though to see a team with a bunch of new faces to see who will become a reliable scorer and rebounder. Seems like we've been reading about McLemore and Traylor for about 3 years. Lets see them play!

Brendan Connolly 2 years ago

The right answer is Conner Frankamp. He is going to score so many points in the Wichita league he will be able to lend 19 per night to KU. In all seriousness I can't wait for him to get here, just to have a guy that can hit a freaking free throw consistently.

David Leathers 2 years ago

Want to see some records broken? Wait for that kid to arrive. I see a more athletic J.J. Reddick.

Curtis Stutz 2 years ago

why would you even mention a guy like that on this website? get it together calihawk

David Leathers 2 years ago

Hmm, maybe because he was one of the best collegiate 3-point shooters of all time? Besides, it's not like Duke is Missouri. If I were to mention.... nevermind, those inbreds never had anyone of that caliber.

Curtis Stutz 2 years ago

Knock it off RCCH, he only earned about 1/10th of his trips to the FT line, which is what enabled him to get into a shooting rhythm most nights. Frankamp can actually drive and draw legitimate FT's.

David Leathers 2 years ago

LOL, I never said anything about free throws. Are you alright man?

Curtis Stutz 2 years ago

RCCH - I'm saying Reddick usually got 5-10 unearned FT's to help him get his stroke going in college. Pays to get all that Duke hype like J Williams and Dunleavy did before him.

Dirk Medema 2 years ago

I'd say a better, more athletic Jeff Boschee

Jack Wilson 2 years ago

Wow. jb is an Ellis optimist. 15-10 in conference. Sold. But only two guys I can recall averaging a double-double were Collison and TRob (for the season - not sure about just conference play). As a note, Marcus was appx. 7.5 and 4.5 his freshman season as a starter. And I'm curious as to how Withey gets to 10 boards a game? Sold. Not to slight the guy, but I have always viewed Withey as a exceptionally poor rebounder for a 7 footer. Perhaps simply filling the void left by TRob maybe?

KansasComet adds that McLemore, White, and Ellis are good for 30 per night. Again, Sold.

And Keegan finds time to mention Adams out of left field. "Explosive." Sold.

Ah, it is the time for optimism.

Then there is reality. But forget that for now.

I hope everyone is right.

How about this .. most points per minutes played this season: Andrew White

Curtis Stutz 2 years ago

HEM, I think it's easy to underestimate Withey as a rebounder because he played alongside TRob most of the time. Usually other people defer to the 7 footer to control a defensive rebound, but in this case everyone very much deferred to TRob in the event they both had a bead on the defensive board. Also blocking/attempting to block shots can take a player out of position for the defensive board. It's possible that Withey disappointed a little on the offensive end of rebounding last year, hard to say, but it's also pretty easy for a 7 footer to get whistled for over-the-back in cbb, so it's best for W to play it safe down there. In summation, I suspect Withey will average a lot more defensive boards this season without TRob gobbling them up.

dylans 2 years ago

EJ is gonna be the man! Funny to leave aw3 out of the conversation since he led the team in scoring in Europe.

johninkc1 2 years ago

Why don't we watch a few games and then guess? Seems like trying to guess before any games are played is crazy.

RJ King 2 years ago

Roberson cuts list to 3:

"After taking my visit to Villanova this weekend I’ve decided to no longer postpone cutting my list to three schools.

I won’t be taking my visit to Kentucky and will most likely be making my final decision on where I’ll be playing collegiate ball within the next few weeks. I appreciate all six of the schools on my list but the three schools I’ve decided to keep on my list are Kansas, Syracuse and Villanova.

Kansas - When I visited Kansas I got a better feel for the school and got to see exactly what they would expect from me in their system. I also got to see the campus and got a chance to watch the team practice. Coach [Bill] Self was honest with me and answered my questions. I got to talk to the players in the team and hang out with them while on my visit.

Syracuse – While I was at Syracuse I had a chance to watch the football game which was a lot of fun. I hung around the team, and talked to them about the program. I also saw the campus and where the team practices. The fans take pride in the program and seemed like they make their players seem appreciated.

Villanova – I visited Villanova this past weekend and attended their Midnight Madness. I had fun and really enjoyed it. Although I was only at Villanova for a day I felt at home and knew after the visit that I didn’t need to take my last visit."

Uh oh. Kinda sounds like a Nova lean.

Chris Shaw 2 years ago

Nice, I haven't seen this information yet! Thanks for posting!

What Roberson meant to say:

"Syracuse: Man, I sure am glad I didn't go to their Orange Madness because I could have been seriously hurt by the stabbing and brawl that occurred. I just kept Villanova on my list simply because I was thanking my lucky stars that I was at their Madness and not Syracuse's".

Note: As Jaybate always says............All Fiction and No Malice in regards to Syracuse!

RJ King 2 years ago

Syracuse is a beautiful campus - seven months of the year. Good college atmosphere, but Carrier Dome is just . . . well, odd. It has the personality of a giant inflatable Astro jump. Not sure if I would want to play zone as an NBA hopeful, but Carmello's presence at practice facility looms large.

'Nova also a beautiful campus, but small and in a very upscale township / train stop. Not much to do there without a set of golf clubs, but you can ride 30 minutes into Philly. Love Philly for its history, walk-ability, restaurants, music, but it doesn't have any kind of college vibe.

Roberson sounds like he wants to stay close to home. He might choose KU if he sees the family atmosphere and the opportunity to develop and play himself into the League.

Jonathan Allison 2 years ago

though, Jaybate usually refers to them as "Syrexcuse".

Chris Shaw 2 years ago

From Roberson: "Coach [Bill] Self was honest with me and answered my questions. I got to talk to the players in the team and hang out with them while on my visit."

He basically said that Dominic Cheek was in a similar position 4 years ago, left Villanova a year early, didn't get drafted, and is looking for work somewhere in Iceland.

David Leathers 2 years ago

With those odds, I'll put $1,000 on McLemore. I feel that while Elijah has the three ball and ability to score, he will put more emphasis on proving that he can be an elite PG. I have no doubts that he can be the top scorer, but honestly, I see a more all-around game this year from Elijah. His basketball IQ is through the roof, and the kid is simply a winner.

As for McLemore, I can't wait to see his athletic ability. The only question mark I have with him is if he can be aggressive. As HCBS said the other day, he reminds a lot of us of BRush, which if you remember wasn't very aggressive. If the answer is yes, look for some amazing highlight dunks, a lot of free throws, and a lot of points.

My odds would look more like this:

McLemore (2-1)

EJ (3-1)

Withey (5-1)

Ellis/Releford (8-1)

Curtis Stutz 2 years ago

Tend to agree with your premise, I figure EJ might be a little busy leading the team and running the point. I probably wouldn't separate the odds on everyone else quite as much though. 5-1 on BMac, EJ, W, TRel / 7-1 on Ellis / 18 to 1 on the field. The big thing that EJ, TRel and W have going for them is we know Self is going to want to get about as many minutes as possible from those guys. Hard to give BMac better odds before he's even played a college game. The fact that Rush did lead the team shows how a guy that isn't the focal point of the offense necessarily can still quietly produce points, which could be Releford this year. EJ, though burdened by many responsibilities, isn't afraid to create his own shot. W should get plenty of touches in the post. I'll be surprised if any of those 4 doesn't put up 11+/game, and I'll be surprised if any of them puts up more than 16/gm.

BROJAYHAWK 2 years ago

COACH KNOW WHAT TO GET OUT OF HIS SR THIS YEAR

Jeff Suther 2 years ago

What about throwing some odds at the guy who has currently led the team in scoring during live action Andrew White?

David Leathers 2 years ago

Considering they were exhibition games, I wouldn't look too far into that one. Last year, in the two exhibitions, Connor Tehan was the leading scorer (17.5).

Also, if you remember, in the last game vs. the French pro team, Self mainly let the young freshman play.

jaydoc06 2 years ago

Odds on Ditka... 1-100. Ditka!

Joe Baker 2 years ago

Self is also really big on passing and lobs. We are going to see a lot of lobs from the high post. The bigs have got to pass well for this play to be productive. Withey wasn't the best passer, Wesley didn't play enough to pass, and not sure if BMac will post high. The high post passes seem be leaning toward Ellis and Traylor. Unless Withey improved his passing, which would be ideal, I see EJ, Rio, BMac, and maybe Rel (if not lobbing passes) damaging the rim on that little backdoor cut slip screen from the baseline.

Game On!

Brandon Pope 2 years ago

Love the way Self is handling this new team so far. We havent seem him coach them live, but you can tell he is hard at work getting these talented bunch of kids in the right mindset to be good down the stretch. As usual.

jaybate 2 years ago

"What Will It Take for the Less Testeds and the Newbies, to Sustain PT"

First, every new player will get a look for a month, or so, except for anyone that is going to get thrown a red tank top.

Second, here are a few things the less-testeds and newbies must show to sustain PT player by player starting on the perimeter.

Peeeeerimeter:

Naadir--no blow bys in the exhibition games like last year; increased turn and burn speed in pre conference; and an obsessive protector; else no PT.

BenMac--Self's already green-lighted BM's defense and shooting, and he's going to be an offense stretcher for EJ and the Bigs; therefore, he has to protect and feed the post; else limited PT.

AWIII--it is very rare when a freshman perimeter guy of his height can defend at D1 speeds out of the blocks; defense must be sound; else limited PT.

Rio--Rio has the athleticism to look very good for a few games early and then when things speed up and get rough to look as EJ did his freshman year; Rio has to protect and defend, protect and defend; else pine time instead of play time.

Deeeeeerimeter (aka Inside):

JamTray--Self says he can board and hustle loose balls; therefore, his tests are can he guard his position (especially can he hedge defend on the perimeter), can be set the screens, and can he catch the ball when fed to him? If yes to these, he could play as much as 20 mpg giving Jeff and Perry 5 minute blows each half. If not, then its wait till next year.

Kevin Young--KY was going to be the starter until the hand went FX; this much we know. KY can guard inside, and he can chase outside, but last year, when he had to guard a big that set up out on the perimeter to start, it was blow-by-city. KY must have fixed the blow-by-itis, or Self would not have been going to start him. So the key for KY is to be able to get up on the glass with the heavy weights shoving him. If he can do that and score a little, then he's prime time. If not, or if he gets pop tart-itis, then Self could start looking to the younger bodies for PT.

Justin Wesley--Justin could guard the post last season, but he could not do it without fouling. It appears that he is still iffy in that department, or Self would be going to him now. Justin has to be patient, because Self may not give Justin a lot of looks the first month of the season, because he's trying to get Jam Tray as far along as he can as quick as he can. But I still think we are going to see some of Justin down stream.

Landen Lucas--he needs to do one thing--guard the post. Scoring, rebounding, passing, none of that matters for Landon this season. If he can guard the post, Self will use him to give Withey some blows. If he can't, then Landen may not see daylight after the exhibition games.

Zach Peters--Zach was going to be in the rotation. Now he is not. Nothing matters for Zach except the rotator cuff. If it heals, he plays and plays a lot. If not, red shirt time, not pine time, or prime time.

HawkKlaw 2 years ago

EJ will most likely lead the team in scoring. I think he'll have around 14 ppg with all those minutes he'll get.

I think the next tier will be BMac (12ppg), Withey (10ppg), and Ellis (8-10ppg once he breaks the starting lineup).

And let's not forget that there will be some games where Releford, White and Young make big contributions in the scoring department. (And if Releford comes on strong, there's a great chance he'll break the 10ppg threshold.)

This is a very balanced team, both in talent and experience (I know, lots of Freshman. But also 3 senior starters). It may not be quite as highly-touted as that 2008 National Championship team, but this squad is very capable of winning it all.

I'm ready!

nostradavid 2 years ago

Watch out for Perry Ellis. He tore it up in Wichita. He will get a lot of shots off rebounds.

mikehawk 2 years ago

The 08 team had balanced scoring and the high scorer changed from game to game. While I don't think we will have the game to game balanced scoring with five in double figures, I do think it likely high point game will move around with the frosh getting in the act from time to time.

Commenting has been disabled for this item.