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Thursday, June 23, 2011

Keegan

Guess on Josh Selby’s draft position: No. 42

Kansas guard Josh Selby licks his chops after hitting a second three-pointer against USC during the first half, Saturday, Dec. 18, 2010 at Allen Fieldhouse.

Kansas guard Josh Selby licks his chops after hitting a second three-pointer against USC during the first half, Saturday, Dec. 18, 2010 at Allen Fieldhouse.

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Keegan's picks

Marcus Morris: 9th, Charlotte Bobcats

Markieff Morris: 11th, Golden State Warriors

Josh Selby: 42th, Indiana Pacers

Let’s pretend that a day after Josh Selby executed that oh-so smooth pass-fake to the right corner and then buried the beautiful three-pointer to defeat USC in December the NCAA stepped in and decided it wanted to suspend Selby for the rest of the season.

Where would you have picked him in today’s NBA Draft?

Lottery pick. But it didn’t happen that way, so where do you pick him now if you’re an NBA general manager?

Second round, but since I’m not an NBA general manager and neither are you, it’s still possible he could go as early as the middle of the first round. He’s one of the toughest calls on the board because he came out of high school with so much hype, and after getting a late start and suffering an injury, he fell so far behind he never could catch up. His confidence was shot, which in turn meant his shot was shot too.

Since we get just one shot at guessing right in the KUsports.com NBA draft contest for a chance to win $100 in KU gear, I’m going to assume Selby really has dropped in the draft and it’s not just the result of a team that wants him spreading that rumor so that other teams can feel safe passing on him early and getting him later. Since I really want to win the contest even though I’m not eligible for the gift certificate because I’m an employee, I figure the best strategy is to make one of the three picks an extreme one. That way, if the long-shot comes in, you’re in good shape. With that in mind, I guessed Selby would go with the 42nd pick to the Indiana Pacers.

The contest, by the way, ends at noon today, so log on and fill out the form.

Now that one of my picks was extreme, I can play it safe with the other two. I had Marcus Morris going ninth to the Charlotte Bobcats, his twin, Markieff, getting snagged two picks later by the Golden State Warriors.

Why Charlotte for Marcus? The Bobcats need to beef up their scoring and rebounding and they can do that in one pick by taking the most versatile forward in the draft.

Picking Markieff to go to the Detroit Pistons at No. 8 would be a nice extreme pick and the Pistons reportedly are high on him, but with post defense ranking as their No. 1 need, Tristan Thompson would seem like a good way for them to go. So I went with Golden State, picking 11th. The Warriors — wisely, they didn’t change their nickname to Golden Eagles — need to get tougher inside and Markieff developed into a tough rebounder at Kansas to go with his shooting and passing skills.

The KUsports.com NBA draft contest offers a particularly interesting challenge this year because of the wild swing of opinions on the three Jayhawks. For example, David Aldridge has Markieff Morris going 17th to the New York Knicks, Marcus Morris 26th to the Dallas Mavericks and Selby 28th to the Chicago Bulls. If Marcus goes only two picks ahead of Selby, I’ll write a column advocating the Warriors change their nickname to Golden Eagles.

NBADraft.net has Marcus going ninth, Markieff 13th to the Phoenix Suns and Selby 36th to the New Jersey Nets.

At 6:30 p.m., mock drafts become irrelevant and mocking the draft picks begins. Shortly after that, someone will pull a Darko Milicic.

Comments

jayhawker_97 8 years, 9 months ago

from the title i already knew it must be written by TK. sigh.. i really do hope Selby made it to the first round, but it's ok if he's got drafted the 2nd round. no matter what, he was a KU player and he'll always be labelled as part of the Jayhawk's men bball team. i wish him the best, and only the best. and i'm proud that i cheer for the twins and Selby tomorrow!

rock chalk!

ClydeTurnbuckle 8 years, 9 months ago

You can't criticize Selby for taking his payday, but he was never a Jayhawk. You're a fool if you think Josh Selby ever gave two sh*ts about KU. He'd check in, try some showboat drive through a crowded lane, turn the ball over, then shrug and smile like "whoops, what are you gonna do". Then he puts Lawrence in his rearview mirror the second the season ends. He's going to make money playing basketball, but I don't really care how much. I have no vested interest in his pro career. He is not a KU alum.

Sam Constance 8 years, 9 months ago

"He is not a KU alum."


Neither is Paul Pierce.

Neither is Wilt Chamberlain

Not sure why all of a sudden that's a qualifying factor for KU fans to have interest in a former player.

Jhawk59 8 years, 9 months ago

Say what you want but Darko is starting to come on at age 26, he averaged 9ppg/5rpg/2bpg last season.

ahpersecoachingexperience 8 years, 9 months ago

I say he goes #1 in next Tuesdays D-league draft!!! ;)

Calm down, it's just a joke. I dont even know if the d-league has a draft. I along with everyone eles in this world other than Josh and his mom think he would of benefited from one more year. It's not getting to the NBA, it's staying in the NBA.

jaybate 8 years, 9 months ago

Chad Ford just predicted that Merv Lindsay was going to be a surprise pick.

jaybate 8 years, 9 months ago

Josh to the Knicks, either by a #17 pick , or by pick-and-trade in a package of Josh and another player.

Knicks lack a second round pick. Knicks need more than one player. Knicks may trade down to get Josh and another pick, or playuh tuh be named latuh.

Rumors persist that Isaiah is involved behind the scenes with the Knicks.

Josh is Isaiah's kinda playuh.

jaybate 8 years, 9 months ago

No, of course not, there is big money to be made by a buddy team based on mentoring. Melo's biz manager could be orchestrating it. And they need a PG. Advertising spokesman team is what Melo and Josh could be. "Melo and Josh." The old gangstah who has wised up with the precocious young street kid and PG. You could sell anything with this kind of a buddy team. Melo and Josh would grab an advertiser two youth market segments they need and do it out of the NYC media market that would easily generalize nationally. Capice?

jaybate 8 years, 9 months ago

Will Enes Kanter be the first graduate assistant ever drafted in the first round?

Robert Brock 8 years, 9 months ago

Well, he already has professional playing experience.

JayHawkFanToo 8 years, 9 months ago

To be a "graduate assistant," Kanter would have to be, well... a graduate student! Kanter is in fact a "student asistant coach."

Curtis Lange 8 years, 9 months ago

Should we really be surprised at him going potentially at the #42 spot? No. It really was a dumb decision on his part to declare for the draft this year...

Going a year early is going to cost him millions upon millions of dollars. Oh well, his mistake.

jaybate 8 years, 9 months ago

NBA Player Importing Continues:

The following off-shore hoopahs, all 6'10", or taller, are projected by one mock draft to be first rounders:

Jonas Valanciunas Lithuania Jan Vesely Czech Republic Bismack Biombo Congo Donatas Motiejunas Nikola Mirotic Montenegro Davis Bertans Latvia

What's with China? Yao Ming and then nothing?

From a billion people?

Surely some of those 650,000 person modular cities China drops in on the perimeter of growing million persons towns we never hear about, can afford to add some basketball courts.

A mutual intereset in basketball may be the only hope for averting an eventual, extended hostility involving USA, China and the EU--one with intermittent war over ultimate control of the Eurasian land mass and its pivot points--central Asia and the Middle East.

A silk road strategy will never deliver anyone to peace just stalemates and war.

It is going to take the trade, the internet, movies and basketball to bring these three political-economic-military playuhs togethuh.

jaybate 8 years, 9 months ago

Maybe the LJW writers could ask Coach Self?

John Randall 8 years, 9 months ago

Youth basketball in Europe is our AAU circuit multiplied by ten. It sweeps up thousands of tall, skinny twelve year olds, stuffs them into a pressure cooker for five years, strains out twelve or fifteen keepers and throws the rest on the compost pile.

FoCoCoHawk 8 years, 9 months ago

When I woke up this morning, worrying about who will control the Eurasian land mass for the next several generations was way down on my list of concerns. Now I find myself obsessing over the metaphor of XTreme Muscle Ball as it applies to high tech militarism.

To say nothing of wondering what "Okie Ball" sounds like in Mandarin.

JuanValdez 8 years, 9 months ago

I wish him the best, but I am afraid he will go undrafted.

John Randall 8 years, 9 months ago

He probably would be better off undrafted – going in the second round simply means one team can keep him out of the free market for another year or so. The NBA has rules to keep down the risk for GMs, not to improve the 'labor pool'. Similar to the NCAA trying to save ADs and boosters from devouring each other, not to assist young men making life-determining decisions.

Ludwig Supraphonic 8 years, 9 months ago

I heard Jay Bilas on the Mike&Mike Show this AM make an interesting point. He asked if they could recall an NFL or NBA player whose career was hurt by staying in school another year. Matt Leinart was referenced and the question was reframed. He was drafted lower and got less money up front but his career was unchanged because he was vastly overrated. Duke's Singler was mentioned with the same conclusion. Yes, his draft status was inflated following the NC season and his bonus would have been higher. However, great players remain great and will complete outstanding careers when they prove it on the court. I am in rare agreement with Bilas. If Josh Selby is a great player he will have an opportunity to prove it on the court. Another year at KU may not have helped him to a higher draft status. It would not have hurt his career.

Jeff Coffman 8 years, 9 months ago

It is interesting because they were saying it never hurts a player to stay in school longer if you look at the career. You turned it around and basically said it shouldn't hurt their career if they leave early....Kudos for taking their statement and showing how they just proved the otherside as well.

Jeff Coffman 8 years, 9 months ago

I've heard OKC is going to lock him up in the first round. Should be a good fit as well for him. You never know, if point guards start dropping, everyone wants to get the potential steal of the draft. I think at worse he'll go late first round. Too many clubs have expressed some interest in the KU OAD Guard.

cg1029 8 years, 9 months ago

College hurt Selby's draft stock in that he would have been a higher draft pick out of highschool... Had he never set foot on the campus at KU he would have more then likely been a lock for the first round out of highschool... So in that sense College did hurt him... Could he have bennifited from playing longer at KU? Yes but if he is as good as he is ever going to be his draft stock would never have been higher then right out of highschool.

Scott Smetana 8 years, 9 months ago

Nothing against Selby, but I hope he bombs and becomes the poster boy of why they need to raise the NBA age limit to 21.

Tony Bandle 8 years, 9 months ago

A Selby Haiku:

Josh's star is hung

by thread above the abyss

will it rise or fall?

dynamitehawk 8 years, 9 months ago

That's freaking awesome Oakville: Haikus; lists; insight You said Josh is hung

Steve Gantz 8 years, 9 months ago

Will he even get drafted? The fact he's even in the discussion of being late 1st round, sliding down to the mid 2nd round shows how little I (and a lot of other people here) know about basketball. To my very layman's opinions he has shown very little reason to be drafted. Individual workouts? That to me shows he's athletic. Even if he does get drafted he could go the route of Sherron and end up being sent down. I really hope I'm wrong. I don't wish any misfortune to anyone who's worn the KU uniform. I just don't see why he's even in the discussion.

squawkhawk 8 years, 9 months ago

Who cares? He certainly didn't care much about his time at KU.

Sam Constance 8 years, 9 months ago

Love how everyone continues to talk about Selby's lack of basketball IQ because he "didn't play well with others".

Something to think about--MOST one-and-done types that come to a school aren't forced to play in a system as rigid as Self requires here at KU. For example, Calipari basically does the whole "hand the keys to the uber-talented freshman and see what happens" routine. Because he's a mediocre COACH (but a stellar recruiter). In other words, guys like Knight (or Wall or Rose) don't HAVE to learn to play as a cog in a team machine--at least not the same way Selby did. Or Xavier did.

That being said, I'd say Selby did pretty well, considering that he was a freshman (funny how everyone seems to forget this, because of his hyped-up, one-and-done status). He struggled, but I'd think it's silly to say that it was because he lacks basketball IQ. Given that he missed critical team-development time in missing the first 9 games (all of which would have been cake as compared with opponents like USC and Big 12 teams) and then had to struggle with an injury for a good portion of the time he was playing, I'd say he integrated pretty damn well.

KU fans continue to express bewilderment at Selby's status as even draftable, which I think is beyond insane. Were his performances against teams like USC, Colorado, K-State, were just complete outliers and no indication of his ability? Those are teams that, while not "elite", are quality, major conference teams. All three were NCAA tournament caliber.

(to be continued...)

Sam Constance 8 years, 9 months ago

(...continued)

Just for argument's sake, let's compare Selby's 13 non-injured games to Xavier Henry, a fellow one-and-done who I think most KU fans would agree was not stupid in leaving for the NBA after one year. Bear with me, as this really belongs in a spreadsheet... I also calculated their respective per 40 minute rates, but since (as you'll see) they played about the same number of minutes per game, those numbers aren't much more revealing.

A few things to keep in mind:

1) Henry had the benefit of working with the team through those early 'cupcake' opponents.

2) Henry also had the opportunity to improve over 36 games, rather than having the best measure of his ability be the first 13 games he played as a collegian.

3) Henry was a SF who spent some time at SG while Selby was a PG who spent some time as SG.

MINUTES Selby - 26.6 Henry - 27.5

POINTS Selby - 12.0 Henry - 13.4

ASSISTS Selby - 3.1 Henry - 1.5

REBOUNDS Selby - 2.9 (everyone overlooks this stat, which is EXCELLENT for a 1/2 combo guard) Henry - 4.4

STEALS Selby - 1.2 Henry - 1.5

TURNOVERS Selby - 2.9 (bad, but remember--he is a FRESHMAN point guard) Henry - 1.9

ASSIST/TO ratio Selby - 1.1 (his TOs don't look so bad in this context...still a freshman) Henry - 0.8

BLOCKS Selby - 0.1 Henry - 0.1

I don't know about anyone else, but Selby's healthy stretch compares pretty favorably to a guy who is in the League and looks to be sticking (for the time being). But the level of demonization and downright ill-wishing upon Selby is exponentially greater than anything Henry received.

To me, that shows a lot of KU fans to be petty and vindictive. Fans who allow their displeasure at a player's departure (or how they left) to heavily influence their opinion of said player. I still contend that Selby will be drafted (I personally think it will be in the 1st round) and that if he isn't, some team will snatch him up faster than you can say "he should've stayed one more year". He has an NBA body (which can't be taught) and has shown as much promise of being a future NBA contributor as at least HALF of the players in this draft.

Best of luck to you Selby. Your year at KU didn't turn out the way anyone (yourself included) had hoped, but you still have a lot of talent and you deserve to get a chance to shine in the League. If you aren't drafted, it will mean this year's draft will have been conducted in a manner completely contrary to the way the last 10 NBA Drafts have been conducted (draft on potential).

JayHawkFanToo 8 years, 9 months ago

You are unfairly judging Selby. A good comparison would be the one and only Mario Chalmers.

In his first year, and having had the advantage of playing a lot more preparatory/easy games (and no play-preventing injuries) than Selby, Mario averaged 2.8 TO per game for the season and 3.1 TO during conference play. The more competitive conference play normally results in a drop in stats for most players, not just Selby.

Also, don’t forget that Mario played major minutes because other than Robinson and Hawkins, the other guards were Case and Vinson, In fact. the majority of PG duty, during Mario’s freshman season, was indeed carried out by Russ Rob and Jeff Hawkins. Selby, on the other hand had to compete against veterans and/or returning player, including starters Taylor, Reed and Morningstar as well as EJ.

When you put compare stats for similar players, Selby’s don’t look too bad.. Had Selby stayed one extra year or more, I am sure his stats would have improved, just like Mario’s did…look at how well it turned out for him

JayHawkFanToo 8 years, 9 months ago

I believe we agree that Selby and Chalmers had similar first year stats. The question is: Is Selby going to get better by playing part-time against college or full-time against NBA competition? I am going to guess that, provided he is not thrrown to the wolves to soon, he will develop faster in the NBA.

Jeffery Barrett 8 years, 9 months ago

So......Josh.....you didn't get taken in the 1st round........pack your bags. Its a long flight to Europe.

Jeff Coffman 8 years, 9 months ago

Wouldn't it be great to have 3 first round draft picks.

And is there any other people that have an outside chance of being drafted late second round...Mario, Brady or Tyrel? I was guessing that they didn't have that opportunity, but just curious if they have tried out or done any workouts for teams or...?

dynamitehawk 8 years, 9 months ago

Two thoughts:

1) Josh is selected 25th to Boston. Rember they took a stab at JR Giddens in the first round (pun certainly intended).

2) I was terribly disappointed to find out that Enes does not rhyme with "penis".

nuleafjhawk 8 years, 9 months ago

Random thought from nowhere:

Maybe we should only recruit people named Mario from now on! I believe this is correct - that every single person we've ever had on the roster named Mario has gone on to a productive NBA career. Mario Little has a good shot at it as well. Something to think about Coach.....

Selbyville 8 years, 9 months ago

didnt bother reading the article or any posters, if you think josh is going 42 than that only further cements your idiocy

VaJay 8 years, 9 months ago

Hey "Selbyville" as of pick number 41, Selby remains undrafted. Care to apologize to anyone??? So much for your expertise...

Sam Constance 8 years, 9 months ago

No one is an expert at predicting NBA GM fickleness. Guys just like Josh Selby have been lottery picks in many of the last several drafts.

Before, NBA GMs only cared about talent, athleticism and potential.

Now, apparently they only care about statistics, no matter who those statistics came against.

Honestly... Charles Jenkins from Hofstra? Does anyone seriously believe a kid with Selby's talent couldn't have put together the same kind of numbers as Jenkins in the quality of league in which Hofstra plays, on a team where he was The Man and the offense ran directly through him (as opposed to Selby having to fit into the puzzle of talent that is KU).

Or Norris Cole from Cleveland State? Good lord.

Neither of those guys will become NBA players. And maybe Selby won't either. But at least Selby has a good chance to make it.

The fact that a guy who was as highly touted as Selby can't get drafted in the poop sandwich that is the 2011 class shows just how insane NBA GMs really are.

No wonder there's going to be a lockout. Someone needs to save NBA GMs from themselves.

And as I type this, Josh Harrelson just got drafted. Unbelievable.

nuleafjhawk 8 years, 9 months ago

Lol - you waited 8 hours and 23 minutes for that post ! No one can ever call you impatient !

JRandall 8 years, 9 months ago

Glad I'm not an idiot. I had Selby going 45th of higher.

jgkojak 8 years, 9 months ago

Selby better get his passport ready, because he'll be in Europe by two years from now.

Robert Brock 8 years, 9 months ago

Selby may be playing in Libya or Yemen. If he steps it up, he could play in Qatar.

Benjamin Piehler 8 years, 9 months ago

hmmm #9? #25? #42? I really have no idea. He's a gamble in the early rounds, IMO... but he could be a steal in the late rounds... assuming he makes progress.

dynamitehawk 8 years, 9 months ago

Note to recruits: Freshman Big XII Player of the Year goes 4th.

Lance Hobson 8 years, 9 months ago

China calls Japan "The land of midgets." They haven't been living up to their self-proclaimed tallness of late, though.

Jeffery Barrett 8 years, 9 months ago

46 players taken so far...... 263 people were wrong about Selby being taken in the 1st round...... And a few people.....marchphog88, called all the rest of us "fools".

Sam Constance 8 years, 9 months ago

I clearly underestimated the capacity for foolishness in the NBA.

Selby is an NBA-caliber player. Memphis got a helluva bargain getting a guy like him for the 49th pick in the draft.

I do find it interesting how proud of themselves so many KU fans are that Selby fell so far. It's quite pathetic.

In 2008, I thought that people who were projecting Chalmers as a second-round pick were foolish then as well. He did end up falling to the second round, but people who projected him there (including the NBA GMs) were indeed foolish, as he has shown more talent and ability to stick in the NBA than many guys drafted ahead of him.

Jerryd Bayless, JR Giddens, Alexis Ajinca, Ryan Anderson, Kosta Koufos, Donte Green, Joe Alexander...

Jeffery Barrett 8 years, 9 months ago

So, it's the NBA that are fools, huh? You are the only smart one???

No, I think its you that is the fool. You are so arrogant, its amazing!

Selby will be in the D-league by January, if not the start of the season.

Sam Constance 8 years, 9 months ago

Yeah, NBA GMs never screw up picks, do they? They never let more talented picks fall to the second round and choose projects that never turn into anything of value in the first round, right?

I'm not the only smart one, but I do have an opinion, and occasionally, it is correct (see: Chalmers in 2008). In this case it is my OPINION that it was foolish for Selby to go behind guys like Iman Shumpert, Corey Joseph, Reggie Jackson, Norris Cole, Darius Morris, Malcolm Lee, Charles Jenkins, Travis Leslie, and so on, to name a few.

I do find it hilarious that, after you finish ridiculing my "arrogance" for having an opinion, you express an opinion of your own. How is it any less arrogant to declare that Selby will be in the D-League than it is to declare that he will be a success in the NBA?

Get lost.

Jeffery Barrett 8 years, 9 months ago

Wow! the 1st player EVER to be drafted from Oakland went before Selby??? Hmmmmm........Memphis????

e93bigd 8 years, 9 months ago

42 not far off. Now two disappointing one and done guards from Kansas get to fight for minutes! If Josh even makes the roster. Might be bound for the D-league. He should be working out and preparing for his sophomore season.

hawksince51 8 years, 9 months ago

I figure it won't be minutes they're fighting over but rather a spot on the bench.

Sam Constance 8 years, 9 months ago

Petty, vindictive KU fans. I still don't think I was that far off with some people, regardless of where Selby ended up going.

I also fully expect Selby to prove his draft position and all the immature BS he has received from so many KU fans wrong in time.

This draft was almost a complete 180 from the apparent NBA drafting philosophy of the last several years, where potential and athleticism ruled over 3 and 4 year college guys. I still think it's insane that some of the guys from smaller schools, who were the only viable option on their team and competed against much lower levels of competition, went ahead of a guy who--in spite of a difficult freshman year, had demonstrated enough skill and talent to be rated the overall #1 player in the 2010 incoming class.

Josh Selby isn't a poster child for staying in school. He's a poster child for the fickle nature of NBA personnel philosophy.

Kevin Heath 8 years, 9 months ago

Just a few questions/comments:

This article has initiated arguments between amateur talent evaluators as to whether Selby will be a success in the NBA. Truth is, nobody knows this stuff. Even when it seems to be clear cut...well...it isn't. Just ask Portland if they would rather have Greg Oden or Kevin Durant if they had the draft to do over again. They both projected well, one has been a success and one has been injured most of his career. One could also ask Milwaukee fans what they think of the trade they made for Robert "Tractor" Traylor oh so many years ago.

Point is this, those of you guaranteeing he will be successful in the NBA don't know Jack, and those guaranteeing failure don't know Jack. Only time will tell. I wish him the best.

There are many of us, myself included, who have been somewhat bitter toward Josh. Now I'm not going to make a statement as to what Josh knows and what Josh doesn't know, but I can state as to how he projected himself to a fan like myself. He came off as though he thought himself bigger than Kansas Basketball. He talked the talk coming in, and had a bad year. Fine, it happens. I can live with that. What causes me more difficulty is when he skips the post season banquet (now I know he isn't the first). Then he is working for the scouts who say they saw an explosiveness he never demonstrated at Kansas. Then it comes out that maybe he wasn't playing as hard at KU to save himself for the pre-draft workouts.

This is really all about PR. Josh hasn't always said the right thing, done the right thing, or had those representing him say the right things when it comes to Kansas Basketball. Whether or not he played his hardest at KU is beside the point. It has been at least suggested that maybe he didn't. It is undeniable that he bailed on his team and the university as soon as basketball was over for the season. That was handled poorly. This was all in a negative light.

I don't know Josh, you probably don't know Josh. He may be the best kid ever. All I do know is he came in and didn't walk the walk, then bailed on KU as quickly as he could. As far as I could read, he demonstrated very little respect for the tradition of Kansas Basketball, his team mates, or the fans. It appears KU was a means to an end for Josh. Without knowing him personally that "appearance" is all we have.

That is why I have bitterness toward Josh Selby.

That is also why, after all the drama involved, I wanted nothing to do with DeAndre Daniels.

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