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Previous articles in this series
Each week in this space, KUSports.com online editor Jesse Newell will take a statistical look at one of the 10 teams that has the best chance of taking this year’s NCAA title.
Team: Duke
Record: 26-5
AP/Coaches Ranking: 4th/4th
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 1st
Strengths
There are a lot of them. In fact, with Duke, it’s tough to know where to start.
The Blue Devils are No. 1 in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Only one team in the last six seasons has ended the season in the top three in both categories. Any guesses? Actually, it was the 2007-08 Kansas Jayhawks, and we all know how that season turned out.
Offensively, Duke’s greatest strength is getting lots of shots toward the rim. The Blue Devils turn it over on just 16.2 percent of their possessions (10th nationally) and also rebound their own misses 40.6 percent of the time (seventh nationally). It doesn’t hurt that Duke is deadly from both the free-throw line (76.2 percent, eighth nationally) and three-point range (38.9 percent, 19th nationally).
Defensively, Duke doesn’t allow opponents to shoot it well. The Blue Devils are especially stingy from the three-point line, as opponents are making just 27.2 percent of their long-range shots (second nationally). A lot of times teams have a hard time even getting three-pointers up, as the opposition is averaging just 13.6 three-point attempts per game against Duke.
Weaknesses
Duke isn’t a great two-point shooting team, making 47 percent of its shots inside the arc (national average is 47.7 percent). The Blue Devils also don’t have the luxury of a deep bench, as reserves play just 24.9 percent of the team’s total minutes (307th nationally). Duke also is extremely dependent on its backcourt for scoring, as 48.4 percent of its points comes from the point-guard and shooting-guard positions.
Players to watch
Jon Scheyer is Duke’s best player, and it isn’t really close. The 6-foot-5 senior guard gives positive contributions in nearly every statistical category, posting 18.9 points, 5.2 assists and 3.5 rebounds per game. He also picks up steals on 2.7 percent of the defensive possessions he’s in (395th nationally) and is accurate from both three-point range (40.9 percent) and the free-throw line (88.7 percent). Scheyer plays in 91.1 percent of Duke’s minutes (18th nationally) and averages just 1.4 fouls every 40 minutes (17th-lowest nationally), making him one of the most dependable players in college basketball this year.
Though 6-foot-8 junior Kyle Singler also is highly respected (17.2 ppg), perhaps overlooked is the significant contributions Duke gets from its other post players. Seven-foot-1 senior center Brian Zoubek is statistically the best offensive rebounder in the nation, pulling down 22.2 percent of his team’s missed shots. He’s also strong on the defensive boards, grabbing 23.6 percent of the opposition’s missed shots (60th nationally).
Six-foot-10 sophomore forward Miles Plumlee also has been a presence inside, snatching 22.7 percent of the potential defensive rebounds (85th nationally) and 11.9 percent of the potential offensive rebounds (147th nationally). Individually, both Plumlee and Zoubek play less than 43 percent of Duke’s total minutes.
Bottom line
A lot of times, because of a perceived East Coast bias, Duke is believed to have a team that is a bit overrated. This isn’t one of those years. Though the Blue Devils have five losses, they are still impressive because of their difficult schedule (fourth toughest according to KenPom) and also their ability to blow people out. Just four of Duke’s 28 victories this year have been by single digits, and the easiest way to be successful in close games is to not play them at all.
Duke’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies are off the charts, and the last team with such high marks (2008 Kansas) won a national title. The Blue Devils should be considered one of the few heavy favorites to win it all when the brackets are released next week.
More like this
- 10 teams that can win it all: No. 1, Kansas 26 comments / March 17, 2010
- 10 teams that can win it all: No. 3, Syracuse 6 comments / March 3, 2010
- 10 teams that can win it all: No. 4, Kentucky 71 comments / February 24, 2010
- 10 teams that can win it all: No. 5, Purdue 1 comment / February 17, 2010
- Duke, UConn 1-2 in poll; Kansas tumbles to No. 18 February 28, 2006
Sports figures gather for charity golf event July 23, 2010
Oread holds pre-tournament mixer July 22, 2010
Series scheduled against Ohio State July 22, 2010
KU basketball nabs Monday night spots July 19, 2010
6Sports Challenge: Ballin' with Brady July 16, 2010
Comments
rockbrooklynchalk (anonymous) says…
I live on the East Coast and watch Duke play more than I would like to. I just don't buy that they are a National Championship contender. They live and die by the '3' when the tourney requires more inside play, rugged defense, and winning ugly to advance. Duke doesn't win ugly. They are a well-oiled machine, but they are also a soft team that has benefitted from playing in a highly overrated conference (the ACC). An athletic, defensive-minded elite team like Kansas State would eat them up in the NCAA tournament.
Moreover, I don't want to say that Duke is unathletic (Singler, Scheyer, and Smith are elite players), but they don't have the depth or athleticism to take out KU, Kentucky, Syracuse, or Villanova. Duke has also struggled on the road against ranked teams (loss to Georgia Tech, loss to Wisconsin, loss to Maryland, loss to Georgetown). If Duke does indeed win the ACC they will likely be the 4th number one seed and playing in a regional far from home. I am willing to bet everything that a strong 2 seed like K-State or West Virginia would destroy them in a regional final played outside of the East Coast, and Duke will suffer a signifiant chance of losing in the Sweet 16 to a strong 3-4 like Tennessee, Baylor or Wisconsin. Hell, I would even go farther and say that Duke could bow out in the second round to an athletic 7-8-9 team such as Oklahoma State, Texas, or Louisville.
Bottom line - Duke has a very slim chance of making the Final 4, and I will bet all I have that Duke does not win the national championship.
lighthawk (anonymous) says…
dreaded Duke.
The Blue Devils are No. 1 in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
smokedturkey (anonymous) says…
I think Duke's offensive and defensive efficiences are overstated considering the ACC this year. It would appear that many still rank the ACC tops or near the top though as Duke's RPI is just below KU and Duke's SOS is ranked higher than KU).
Code_2008 (anonymous) says…
Duke winning the tournament? Hahahahahaha... sorry, that was a good one. Kansas State has a better shot at winning the tournament than Duke.
KU (anonymous) says…
Over the past 6 years or so, Duke has consistently drawn my criticism because of their pathetic post play. Who was the last game changer they had down low? Sheldon Williams?
While this team appears to be the same, Zoubek has really come on strong the second half of the season as a rebounding and defensive force. Still, Duke would appear to be vulnerable inside against a team with athletic, physical bigs. (See: Georgetown, which destroyed Duke) Zoubek's numbers benefit from playing a relatively weak ACC schedule that doesn't have powerful post play.
But Duke is very good at playing to their strengths (perimeter). They are a very intelligent group. We think of Duke as relying on the 3-ball, but as a percentage of their offense, they are only 103rd in the nation in 3 point scoring Plus, if you consider they are the #19 best shooting 3 point field goal percentage team, the conventional wisdom that says "the live and die by the 3" hasn't really hurt them much this season. The only loss that you could pin on bad 3 point shooting was Georgia Tech, where Duke shot 21% and lost by 4.
Duke generally loses when their opponent shoots well from the field. That may sound like a moronic statement, but specifically, they lose when their opponent shoots well INSIDE the 3 point line. Duke isn't a particularly good defensive team inside the 3 point line, but if you shoot over 50% from 2-point range, you have a very good chance against Duke.
Curiously, Duke is very good at defending the 3-point line. My guess is that most teams consider Duke's post play to be their weakness so they take more 2-point shots. And why not? If Zoubek is your best post player and the other two are twin freshmen, I would take my chances pounding Duke down low just like Georgetown did--to the tune of about 70% shooting from the field.
Bottom line: a big, rugged, physical, athletic front line will be the Kryptonite that takes out Duke in this tournament. Still, I don't want to play them.
KUGuyInTarheelLand (anonymous) says…
i think DUKEs stats are heavily inflated. He said there was no "east coast bias" this year with duke, and that duke was not high up just because of where they are. I disagree. There is that bias, and it is with the ACC. People think the ACC is stronger than what it is, inflating dukes SOS. Also, because the ACC is so weak this year, no wonder Duke is able to rout teams the way they have. This is one of the worst years the ACC has had in recent memory, and Duke had trouble winning the conference. I think Duke is a solid team, but NO where close to #2. I see them going to the sweet 16 and that's it.
irondukey (anonymous) says…
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Everyone loves to hate on Duke. It's so passe.
Anyway, I've bookmarked this page so I can come back and gloat when Coach K makes you farm boys squeeeeeeal like a piggy! See ya in April!
TarzanKUfan (anonymous) says…
Puke really? I would have had them #10 on the list #2 this is a reach Jesse.
justanotherfan (anonymous) says…
The stats do say that Duke could win it all, but when I watch them play I don't think - Wow, national title contender there. I think, this looks like the Duke teams that have lost to LSU (Sweet 16), VCU (first round) Texas, (second round), etc.
They have great numbers, but there is just something about them that doesn't make them a title contender. It's not the athleticism thing. I think they are okay athletically. Not elite, mind you, but okay. But this Duke team can't just go and get an easy basket when they want. They can't just crank up the defense on you. They are very good at a lot of things, but not truly great at any one thing, except perhaps three point shooting.
If they are still dancing after the Sweet 16 I will be absolutely shocked.
Hallacek (anonymous) says…
Games are played on the court and not on stat sheets. Having seen Duke play, they are a paper tiger if there ever was one. Their only threat to go deep in the tourney is to shoot well over 50% from three and get a draw of teams with weak post play. It would have to be a "perfect storm" scenario for them to see a game past the sweet 16.
BeakofLight (anonymous) says…
iron puke,
arent you just the most clever little guy with your 'deliverance' reference...so witty
and im curious, how exactly does it feel being a second-tier program in the modern-era of cbball???
Rock_Chalk_25 (anonymous) says…
I'm with the majority of you guys---I just don't think Duke has enough to pull it off. Not saying it's impossible, just highly improbable in my opinion. I do think they will advance to the Elite 8 and possibly the Final Four, but I don't see them doing any damage once they get there.
Duke's strengths: great help defense (as always with Coach K), tough post D, and incredibly smart players
Weaknesses: quickness on D, no lockdown defender, absence of skilled post players
I just can't picture Duke hanging with the big boys if they get into April. I would see Aldrich, Marcus, Rick Jackson (Syracuse), Onawaku (Syracuse), Cousins, and Patterson all dominating against the Duke bigs. Zoubek, the Plumlees, and Lance Thomas are all good at one thing---tough post D. But Marcus and Patterson would go nuts in my opinion, no one on the Duke roster could match-up with their ability to put in the floor and post-up skills. Just my two cents...
Darsves (anonymous) says…
Yeah, Duke is a good team, but I'm not entirely sure that they should be #2. My dad is an avid Duke fan, so I've grown up having watched them along with Kansas, and this year they are better than the previous few, but I'm still not really seeing them as a top elite team like KU yet for the reason of depth. Their starters are all pretty good especially with Zoubek coming on now, but their bench play doesn't seem to impress me or my dad. My dad really can't stand the Plumlee's because they turn the ball over way too often. To me, they remind me of the Morris' freshman year and I wasn't impressed with them either at the time.
Also Andre Dawkins doesn't seem to be as hot as he was earlier in the season coming off the bench. But their big 3 (Scheyer, Singler, Smith) do always give them a chance to win ballgames with their ability to shoot the three and drive to the basket. One other thing makes me question their inside game and that is with Zoubek. He has been coming on lately, but something my dad and I have noticed is that he never wants to dunk the ball. He's 7'1", but whenever he gets it under the basket, he seems to want to put the ball back on the court and then try to lay it in instead of just slamming it home. I just don't get it, take the sure basket and slam it down.
But I won't completely count them out at making a run for the title. They have talent, a coach that can motivate, they can play defense, and they can score the ball, so I do think they can hang in there with the best, but their 3 point shooting probably needs to be on.
TarzanKUfan (anonymous) says…
Jesse,
If Puke is your #2 team then Kansas might just have the easiest route to the championship ever in modern 64 team tournament.
wissoxfan83 (anonymous) says…
I've seen them once against my 2nd favorite team Wisconsin. The Badgers exposed them as slow on defense. On the other hand those statistics about the best in terms of offensive production and defensive efficiency indicate they are a very solid team.
drgnslayr (anonymous) says…
I like rockbrooklynchalk's post... and agree.. I think Duke would have a hard time with a team like KSU, because they would get manhandled. Obviously it would depend on the refs and if they let the game be played without all the whistles.
I've seen plenty of Duke games this year and they are a very well oiled machine. They play extremely clean ball. I just don't think that will get it done in March. I don't see how Duke can answer an offensive attack by the twins and Cole. I don't see a guard they have that can hang with Sherron's drives or TT's... I just don't see any upside left for a team like Duke. They've overplayed all year.
Still.... it's March, and in March you take every team as a threat, or you go home early because you didn't prepare for a team that has proven to be a winner all year long.
The big threat to KU against Duke would be our bigs getting in foul trouble. Beyond that I'd be happy to have Duke in our bracket!
DWManion99 (anonymous) says…
Rockbrooklynchalk is right on the money here. I live on the East Coast also and have watched Duke many times this year. They lack quickness and have benefited from playing in the weakest ACC in many years. I see the same weakness and overconfidence in them that I saw in UNC in 2008 (although admittedly they haven't gotten quite the gushing UNC did that year). Put them up against a tough well balanced team (and there are several in the Big 12) and they will be going home. Soft, soft, soft.....
jaybate (anonymous) says…
"Tuesday Morning Thinking of Duke, B12 vs. ACC, and the Inevitability of the Most Violent NCAA Tournament in History:"
Whether or not one is concerned about Duke depends on two things:
1. Was KU's loss to Okie State driven more by OSU, or more by KU's lead legs?
2. Is the ACC as good as kenpom.com thinks it is?
Regarding the first, it seems almost certain KU lost to OSU because of lead legs and not coming to play mentally.
Regarding the ACC, I watch the games and the good ACC teams--Maryland, Clemson, Duke, and Florida State--are all like Baylor, Texas, KSU, Texas A&M and Missouri. They are mostly big, athletic teams that are missing key pieces--most often the key piece missing being trey shooting, or starting post men who can play 30-35 minutes per game.
No team in the ACC has all the pieces.
Duke comes closest, but its inside punch is lacking, even as Zoubeck has developed.
Duke has KU grade trifectation, but even Duke doesn't go as deep as KU in outside shooters.
Duke has lost 5 games--that's three more than KU--playing in a conference that is rated slightly higher than the B12, but which has only 1 team in the kenpom.com top 15, compared to 5 from the B12.
Even in the kenpom.com Top 20, the B12 has 5 teams compared to the ACC's 4.
The key inference here is that the ACC is not nearly as good as the B12 at the top of the conference. It just has better teams in the bottom half of its conference.
kenpom.com ratings are good in many ways, but they are heavily skewed toward teams with high offensive and defensive efficiency that play teams with high offensive and defensive efficiency.
kenpom.com ratings are, thus, basically an echo chamber of offensive and defensive efficiency.
I'm a big believer in efficiency as a contributor to teams being good.
But efficiency is not everything, any more than trey shooting is everything, or bigs are everything.
A team must be efficient, but the truth is that efficiency is a symptom of a cause, not vice versa.
A team is efficient because of how often and well it holds match up advantages, while winning at disruption (steals, recovered blocks and TOs caused by defensive pressure).
A team is not efficient, because it plays efficiently; that is a circular reasoning. Efficiency is a measure of actual functioning aspects of play.
As Bill Self continually remarks, once the seeding done, all that matters is match ups.
It does not matter if you are from a slightly statistically tougher conference with better bottom half teams.
It does not matter that you are incredibly efficient playing against competition that lacks missing pieces just like you do and you are better at masking your missing piece than your competition has been.
jaybate (anonymous) says…
What matters is how one team matches up with another.
On the perimeter, Duke can't guard Sherron, or X.
On the inside, Duke can't guard both Cole and Marcus; they will have to pick which one.
Duke is not a threat to KU unless KU shoots 25% from trey.
KU would have much more trouble matching up with Contucky, but even there, as I have said repeatedly, while the match-ups would be close, even there KU would hold an edge.
Syracuse, Wisconsin and Michigan State are the toughest match ups for KU. Why?
Syracuse because of its zone, which KU has shown a tendency to struggle against as it did frequently versus KSU, which is not nearly as competant at zoning as Cuse. Syracuse also because Withey has not developed into a significant low post threat capable of letting Self go twin towers against Cuse's zone--the single best strategy for beating Cuse's zone.
Wisconsin and Michigan State and WVU (and typically Maryland, Texas, and maybe Texas A&M) are ultimately the teams that will be every other team's toughest match-ups in each region. And they are each essentially interchangeable in toughness of match-up. Why? Because the referees will not call fouls starting in the Sweet 16, and so these teams, which all are very physical, will, if they survive to the 16, have a great edge in mugging their ways to the Finals.
Self was right to prepare this KU team to play muscle ball.
Starting with the Sweet 16, the team that can play and win four straight bruising, violent games of thug ball will win the National Championship.
It will play out this way almost as certainly as the sun will come up.
jaybate (anonymous) says…
Once thug ball starts, it is the team that can shoot the highest percentage being fouled that will win.
Even being the team with all the pieces will not in the final analysis be decisive this year.
This year, there are more thug and muscle ball teams than ever before.
KU is one.
The only question is: is it the toughest one that can avoid injuries in this kind of play and keep hitting the trey.
KU must not bring a knife to a gun fight this post season.
I believe Self has understood this inevitability all season long and this is why, ultimately, he has picked the players he has picked as his best 7-8--they are guys who can do what they do, whatever their roles may be, even when being butchered.
He is a great coach at foreseeing how things will play out.
I believe he has finally decided that Thomas Robinson is more likely to be able to give him 5-10 minutes in a crisis back-up situation of injury, or early foul trouble, than Withey. I believe he has decided that TRob can handle the violence better than Withey can at this point in both their careers.
The conference tourney will be a war game with three objectives:
1) Win two of three games to ensure the seed you had going into the conference tourney;
2) Get accustomed to the next step up in violence that will occur in the Madness; and
3) Avoid injuries at all costs even as the risk of injury escalates dramatically.
It is a terrible way to have to win a title. It is a terrible way to have to play the game to be a champion. But champions always have to play it as it lays.
All roads lead to mayhem this time.
The defense never rests.
Rock Chalk!
trueblue9 (anonymous) says…
and jaybate kills another discussion.
no ohio st.? interesting when they have the likely POY and will be either a #1 or #2 seed.
jaybate (anonymous) says…
trueblue9,
If your post counts for discussion, consider my post a mercy killing. :-)
jaybate (anonymous) says…
trueblue9 post script:
The Suckeyes should be included in the mix of thug ballers capable of winning it all with violence, if they reach the 16. Their star got game.
trueblue9 (anonymous) says…
thats pretty clever stuff jaybate. clever and racist.
Tuskin (anonymous) says…
It has been a couple of weeks since I updated my computerized ratings, but as of February 27, I had Duke at #1, slightly better than KU at #2.
Duke has been doing very nicely this season. I think their 76-41 against Gonzaga is more impressive than our 84-52 at Temple.
Sure, they've lost more games, but we've had our share of games that shouldn't have been as close as they were. And sure, their 74-88 loss at NC State is more embarrassing than our 77-85 loss at Oklahoma State, but their average performance seems a little better than our average performance to date.
KUhawks77 (anonymous) says…
Sorry Dude, you're missing one important stat in your analysis of Duke...
They can't win anywhere but Cameron. Look at their road record inside a "mediocre" ACC.
I'll bet you they don't even get out of Salt Lake City, in fact I'll bet you they never even get as far as SLC, losing early.
Just because ESPN, Packer and Dickie V are all in love with the Rat at least you could be objective about a very, very average Duke team.
But I'll be happy to gloat in like a week from this Saturday or so....
jaybate (anonymous) says…
trueblue9,
I'm not sure what you meant by suggesting that my remarks, which had no racial content at all, had any racist overtones.
Are you trying to say trueblue9 is a racist?
Or are you trying to say trueblue9 might be a racist?
Or are you trying to say trueblue9 was born a racist?
Or are you trying to say trueblue9 became a racist?
Or are you trying to say trueblue9 likes being a racist?
Or are you trying to say trueblue9 likes projecting about being a racist?
Keep me informed. I want to help you stop being a racist, if you are one.
Racism is bad. It is cruel. It is not worthy of a KU basketball fan, a board rat, or of a human being.
Rock chalk!
KUhawks77 (anonymous) says…
Here's a little more data that seems to be missing in your review of Duke, Jesse:
Duke is 5-4 against teams that WERE ranked when they played.
Duke is 1-3 against teams that ARE ranked today (none in the top 10)
And a real significant stat:
Duke is 1-4 against ranked teams on the road!
At least so far, the NCAA has not added Cameron In Door as a Regional site. Because, brother, that's the only way Duke is going anywhere in this Tourney!
trueblue9 (anonymous) says…
none of the above my friend. just a person who is offended that you portray yourself as a ku fan and at the same time like to throw racial stereotypes of thuggery and violence at a group of young black men who i believe have no such record.
Tuskin (anonymous) says…
Trueblue9, the word "thug" means brute or ruffian. I imagine there are some folks who throw that word around to mean people of one race or another, which would be racist. Did you really take jaybate's post in that vein? His post wouldn't even make sense that way.
I take his posts to mean that, in order to go far in the tourney, you need to be able to play well against teams that play rough. That much is probably true, no?
A finesse team that doesn't play well in games that are heavily physical would have a hard time winning the tourney. However, jaybate probably overstated his case. The team that wins is usually not the roughest team out there.
trueblue9 (anonymous) says…
my bad, i now see that your webster's dictionary has the correct usage of the term. in fact, i found a pic proving your point, although i suspect that you and jaybate posed for it just to show me up. http://dext3rity.files.wordpress.com/...
Tuskin (anonymous) says…
LOL Yeah, that's me, saying "I love you" in sign language. I was trying for E-HUG, but there was a typo somewhere down the line... =)
jaybate (anonymous) says…
trueblue9,
Well, now we are getting somewhere.
I am so color blind I do not see why anyone would associate thug with African Americans. Huggin's African American dominated teams play thug ball. Wisconsin's sometimes Caucasian American dominated teams play thug ball.
Any of god's children can be (and are) taught to play thug ball.
There is Thug Ball Dark Amber Ale more or less invented and brewed by Bob Huggins, This brew is based on his dad's East Ohio high school butcher ball philosophy. Whether Huggo-Muggo is at UCinn, KSU, or WVU, his players exude the same dynamic: few can shoot but all can muscle and intimidate. It is one of the true wellspring tributaries of contemporary thug ball. Frank Martin descends from this virulent strain of basketball, though Martin seems to have toned it down somewhat, in his rise from Huggo-Muggo assistant to K-state head coach. Huggins prowls the sidelines in satanic black. Martin dresses and looks more like a mafia hit man wearing a Bert mask. Both men eat, drink and sleep intimidation both in appearance and in action. Their teams appear coached to emulate them.
There is also Thug Ball Big Ten Octoberfest Bok that has been being played in the B10 since at least the 50s, but probably dates all the way back to Ward "Piggy" Lambert's innovation of finding the biggest, roughest, toughest body checking-est center and two forwards he could find to control the boards with shoving and blocking and so allow rebounds an quick releases to firefly fast guards like the Indiana Rubber Man himself, John Wooden. Thug Ball Big Ten Bok matured into a full bodied and body checking brand of football in sneakers by the 1960s. Bob Knight sort of took the high road a bit by fusing quite a bit of Hank Iba philosophy with Fred Taylor and Clair Bee, but whenever a Knight team got down by 10-15, Knight brought out the body checking, tackling, shoving into the cheap seats and mugging until he got back into the game.
jaybate (anonymous) says…
But during the 70s, while Knight was trying to bring a slightly better brand of ball to the B10, the perfectly named Bill Mussleman was inaugurating the true modern day roots of B10 thug ball at Minnesota; this strain quickly erupted into the infamous Ron Behagen/Corky Taylor et al assault on Ohio State's Luke Witte. While Ohio State's famed Fred Taylor (Knights old coach) called the attack on Witte "one of the sorriest things I've ever seen in intercollegiate athletics," many other Big Ten schools were watching and learning from Bill Mussleman impressive new level of physical aggressiveness not just during group attacks on other players, but during play itself. Chigan State's Jud Heathcote in time became one of the pioneers of playing today's contemporary B10 form of muscle ball. Muscle ball is playing physically rougher than everyone else one, while trying hard not to appear as a thug, or outlaw. And Jud Heathcote, whom Knight reputedly referred to, along with Lou Henson, as among of the cheaters in the Big Ten, finally gave thug ball some respectability, when Heathcote found one of the game's greatest players of all time, Earvin "Magic" Johnson in his backyard, and by combining Earvin's magic with a supporting cast of muscle ballers, won a national championship.
But Jud Heathcote was really a piker of muscle ball in comparison to someone like John Thompson Version 1.0 at Georgetown. Thompson's teams took physical roughness and Hoya Paranoia to almost comic book levels that would have been hilarious had not young men on opposing teams not been being strong armed and bludgeoned and shoved off the court whenever they took the ball to the rim.
And it was Jud Heathecote's pitbull assistant, Tom "Ratso" Izzo, that determined not to be outdone by anyone including John Thompson Version 1.0.
When Ratso Izzo took over MSU from Jud, Ratso dispensed with all pretense of clean and lean basketball simply played rough. With a few talented exceptions, Ratso Izzo recruited muscle bodies and taught them to play the game later. He put his teams on the weight machines and had them wear helmets and shoulder pads in practice and scrimmage without fouls being called. He believed (and believes) toughness, not basketball skill wins games.
jaybate (anonymous) says…
Dick Bennett, a coach of Heathcote's generation, but a late arrival to the B10 wasted not a second at turning his Wisconsin Badgers into the brawniest, roughest, foulingest bunch of cheeseheads ever to bounce balls for Bucky the Badger at around the time Ratso Izzo's enforcers were reaching their stride.
To date the all time low point of NCAA Division 1 basketball was reached when Izzo's Mateen "The Meat Cleaver" Cleves-lead thug ballers faced off in the NCAA championship game against Bennett's Wisconsin maulers. There were literally long stretches where neither team could score because the uncalled fouling and body checking prevented shots from landing anywhere near the rims. Since that game, Ratso Izzo has been the Prince of Basketball Darkness in the B10. If teams cannot survive a mugging by Michigan State, they cannot win the B10. Bennett mercifully retired but a near clone of Bennett, Bo Ryan, took over at Wisconsin.
There is another brand of thug ball that might be called Maryland Mugball coached by Gary Williams. Rick Butcher Barnes descends from this style of play and brought it to Providence and Texas.
Then there is Thug Ball Lite, aka Hack'n'Slap, invented by Ben Howland in the WAC, then brought to a major at Pitt, then show cased at UCLA. Thug Ball Lite/Hack'n'Slap is just every player fouling all the time on every possesion from the first buzzer. It forces refs to quickly swallow their whistles, because games would never end if all the fouls were called.
jaybate (anonymous) says…
Then there is this Bill Self's Eddie Sutton descended 70-Point-Take-What-They-Give-Us Thug Ball that Bill has hybridized with Howland Hack'n'slap and Ratso Izzo Thug Ball Big Ten Octoberfest Bok. Bill learned to play Izzo ball, when coaching against Izzo, when Self was with the Illini. He learned the Hack'n'Slap when Howland's Aaron Afflalo-lead foul artists took KU to the cleaners with the Hack'n'slap. Self adopted it the following season and won a national championship with it in 2008. Bill Ball differs from conventional thug ball in that it has a philsophy that dictates it will play you anyway you want. It will play clean, if you play clean. It will play thug ball, if you play thug ball. When drawn into a thug ball contest, what Coach Self euphemizes as a "grind it out" game, KU's thug ball is indistinguishable from its opponent's thug ball. It is remarkable to watch. If a Self team confronts Michigan State, it attempts to do pretty much what MSU does, with in the limits of what Self's players can do. Against Huggo-Muggo and Frank Martin, KU plays almost indistinguishable from them, sometimes even rougher if talent permits. If he plays UCLA, the heavy body checking disappears, but the constant hack'n'slap rises to the top.
I repeat there is not race issue here.
We are describing a strategic phenomen that has emerged from an increasing tendency of referees not to call fouls in March Madness. Over time this forces conferences and individual teams to follow suit.
This season there are probably more thug ball teams in the Top 20 than ever before.
To reiterate, these thug ball legacies referred to above have nothing whatsoever to do with skin color of anyone. These legacies are simply persistent patterns of play using roughness vastly beyond what the written rules technically permit to achieve an unfair advantage in winning.
Thug ball is the unfair advantage of being able to foul someone in the act of shooting, of being able to push someone out of position while rebounding, of being able to punish successful players with elbows and fouling, of literally shoving them out of their cuts, and generally getting away with tripping, and kicking and kidney punching and body checking.
Thug ball has triumphed in contemporary basketball.
The king is dead. Long live the king.
ralster (anonymous) says…
Regarding the all-important "matchups"--what in tarnation is Puke going to do with Tyshawn Taylor? Dookies are slow. He is fast. Marcus is fast. TRob is damn quick, if given a chance and if he doesnt travel...And Sherron is the polar-opposite of a Coach K-type of playing style...Duke has no answer for Sherron+Tyshawn. You bring in Brady + Tyrel and they do exactly what Duke players are known for: conservative, reduced-error ball, with >40% 3pt ability. Bill Self gotta be salivating like most KU fans at the chance to play Dook and remind them they are 2nd-tier. Your welcome! RCJH, baby!
waywardJay (anonymous) says…
I agree.... thug ball is different than someone using the terminology Thuggish behavior....
Thuggish behavior as I ahve seen it used on this site.... refers traditionally to someone's skin color and is largely offensive..... I take great umbrage at this....
Thuggish basketball.... well that can be all sorts of Colors.... WHen I think Thuggish basketball, I think Jason Sutherland slapping at Jerod Haase's broken wrist... Last i checked.... Sutherland was a white dude.
All time big 12 Thug team
Cookie Miller, Nebraska.
jason Sutherland, Missouri.
Curtis Stinson, Iowa State
Eduardo Najera, Oklahoma
David harrison, Colorado
at least in my humble opinion.... Team Captain, SUtherland. He was hands down the dirtiest player of the bunch.
scootja32 (anonymous) says…
Horrible pick with Najera. Not thug at all.
Have you never heard of Ricky Clemons?
scootja32 (anonymous) says…
In 2000, Najera received the Chip Hilton Player of the Year Award from the Basketball Hall of Fame, an award given to a player who has demonstrated personal character both on and off the court.[3]
In 2001, Najera served as the United Nations Drug Control Programme Goodwill Ambassador for Sports Against Drugs. In 2004, he established the Eduardo Najera Foundation for Latino Achievement, which provides college scholarships for outstanding Latino students facing barriers to their educations, and in 2006, he received the Chopper Travaglini Award for demonstrating outstanding charity work in the Denver community.[8]
link - wiki
skwahjayog (anonymous) says…
I haven't been keeping up with Jesse's list of the 10 teams that can win it all. I'm curious who the previous 8 were (and order) and I'm assuming KU is still to come...?
jnewell (Jesse Newell) says…
skwah — The previous eight are shown in a box on the left side of the story above in case you want to click on them.
KANSTUCKY (anonymous) says…
When commenting on a article of this subject and nature please refrain from calling anyone but Krzyzewski "Rat". It fits him way too well. Also, if we could spell the school name correctly for gosh sakes. The name is DOOK.
jaybate (anonymous) says…
ralster,
xclnt pt re TT. 2 fst 4 dook.
Note: Just practicing my texting style to get better on the cell! :-)
wissoxfan83 (anonymous) says…
Jaybate, you suckered me into it here. I'm a KU grad, but lived in Wisconsin for 14 years and became a Badger fan. I follow them avidly, KU's still #1 for me though.
Wisconsin = thug just doesn't sit right with me, particularly in the Bo Ryan era.
Wisconsin reminds me of Kansas defense with Bill Self. The Jayhawks are hard to score against just like Wisconsin. The overall lower scoring games are a result of UW being more patient offensively than KU.
The basketball lovers at KU if they had a chance would really appreciate Bo Ryan and Wisconsin basketball.
I checked a few of their recent box scores. They held MSU to 49 points and only fouled 15 times.
They held Iowa to 40 and fouled 14 times.
One game a few weeks ago, can't remember which, the Badgers had 2 fouls at the half.
They don't go out and hack the opponents into submission.
The thug basketball thing is way more in the big east I believe. Why do you think we're waiting til 8:20 every Monday to see the Hawks? It's foulfoulfoul, heck they foul free throw shooters!
gongs4ku (anonymous) says…
Duke has a weak frontcourt and they aren't particularly athletic, compared to the other 1 seeds. Those two factors generally doom teams to an early exit.
If they do end up making the final game, then props to you, Newell. I think you're the only one who believed it could happen. Well, other than deluded Duke fans, of course...
moosetundafloo (anonymous) says…
All you Duke haters must be feeling pretty silly by now.
jnewell (Jesse Newell) says…
Bump.
Sweet_Sandbags (anonymous) says…
A little vindication Jesse for those of us who believe more than others in the strong relevance of team hoops statistics. KenPom must have a smile on his face today.
With Duke’s win last night, some additional statistical trends remained in tact for the recent national champions. It is almost bizarre how all of these continue to pan out each year. Just shows that the overall tournament is for the Cinderellas and underdogs, but the championship is truly reserved for the super-elite programs during any given season.
Each national champion except for one (21 out of 22) after KU won it in '88 has now had the following three characteristics:
1. At least a 10 game winning streak at some point during the season. Though in Duke’s case they did not reach this plateau until last night’s win. A nine game run through the conference and NCAA tournaments is as good as any winning streak however. Just ask Butler if they would give up their long streak before last night's game today in exchange for a shorter one and a win over Duke.
2. An average margin of victory of at least 10 pts. (usually much higher in the 14+ range). My quick math tells me that Duke’s was 16 for the season.
3. At least one future NBA player on the roster (yes subjective, but should be relatively easy to determine when looking at rosters of the contenders). Duke – check.
You can combine these facts/trends with the KenPom offensive and defensive efficiency characteristics of the past six champs (only as far back as he displays), which are basically always top 15 and typically top five on both. Duke ended this season offensive #1 and defensive #4 so that trend is now extended to seven years.
Finally, the past 11 national champions now including Duke have had at least three losses, while every national champion since Indiana went undefeated in 1976 has had at least two losses. The days of going undefeated or losing only once before the tournament are likely past us. I say this of course remembering that we were only a clutch 3-point shot or a made free throw away from Memphis ending 2008 with one loss. But they went winless that year anyway, so it wouldn't have mattered.
Put it all together and make of it what you will. The trend is your friend, however, when it comes to picking the short list of national championship candidates at tournament time each year.
KU was certainly on that short list this year. Sigh, what could have been.
RCJGKU