KeeganAdvertisement
Advertisement
The substance behind the salvo Kansas University athletic director Lew Perkins fired Tuesday when he called the threat of conference realignment “serious, serious, serious stuff,” took shape Thursday, and it’s not a pretty shape for Kansas.
Unlike fears the Big Ten would raid the Big 12 for Missouri and Nebraska, a Rivals.com report Thursday that said the Pac-10 has plans to invite half the Big 12 schools to join them in a super conference had a feel of authenticity to it.
Under the possible scenario, the Pac-10 poaches Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech to form a 16-team conference and wipes the Big 12 off the planet.
That leaves Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri and Nebraska looking for a conference, in the event the six other schools receive and accept the invitations from the Pac-10.
Fear mongers would have you believe that Missouri and Nebraska can be crossed off that list, leaving Kansas only with Kansas State, Iowa State and Baylor, hardly a trio of heavyweight revenue generators, but that scenario has a major road block. If Notre Dame joins the Big Ten, making it a 12-team conference, where is the incentive to expand from there? Any additional member, short of a mega-power such as Texas, would dilute the caliber of the conference, the size of the pie, the money going to each member.
Even if Missouri and Nebraska seek a home with Kansas and the others left behind, the Pac-10-poaching scenario leaves KU no potential conference home nearly as attractive as the one it has now.
Perkins, under a chancellor-ordered ethics investigation, wasn’t employing diversionary tactics to take attention away from his own situation when he spoke to the gravity of conference-realignment talks.
Television dollars drive the realignments, and households drive television dollars. The very things that make Kansas such a pleasant place to live — lack of congestion, beautiful, open landscape, personal space — make KU and K-State less attractive to conference raiders.
Colorado brings the Denver market, Texas A&M brings Houston, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State bring the entire state and one major national football power. Texas Tech makes more geographic sense than the Kansas schools.
Still, only interest on the part of Texas, mighty Texas, makes the whole thing fly. Texas and only Texas can save the Big 12 by staying put. That would be the same Texas that inspired jealousy from other Big 12 members for earning a bigger TV revenue share than the other schools.
It’s funny how quickly one potential move from another conference can or at least should make all the Big 12 schools rethink the need for equal revenue sharing.
The story breaking right before the conclusion of the Big 12 meetings and the beginning of the Pac-10 meetings certainly didn’t do anything to damage UT’s already massive bargaining power.
Even skewing TV revenues more heavily in the direction of Texas might not make a difference. The cash stack from a conference that stretches from Texas to California could be too rich to refuse.
Comments
oxcaljayhawk (anonymous) says…
Congrats on falling hook, line, and sinker for this obvious UT ploy. Some UT sock puppet posts some unsourced rumor on a blog and everyone gets the vapors. Stanford, the UC schools and SC will never want the TX and OK schools in the P10. If you had ever seen a P10 commercial during one of their FB games, you'd know what I mean. Schools near lush forests, beautiful beaches and even majestic deserts don't want to have include Stillwater and Houston. Plus, the hardcore P10 fans would be sickened by the thought of OU representing the "P16" in the Rose Bowl.
Now is the time to get tough with UT. Tell them we will reform the B8, grab Boise State and Arkansas and they can go form a conference with Houston which nobody outside of TX will watch. UT is not going to the SEC b/c LSU and Ala don't want to have to play thru them just to get to the SEC championship game.
You were right, however, that all of this speculation is caused by the ND/B10 dance, which is the only deal that makes sense.
carterpatterson (anonymous) says…
Tom, what I would love to know is how does KU TV ratings rank compared to these other schools? It seems to me that size of the school and its Alumni base drive the TV ratings. Perhaps I'm totally off base, but I can't imagine that ESPN puts us on TV solely because we are Kansas. I think they put us on TV because people watch us and the ratings are up.
When TV stations sell advertising, is it not based off of how many people are expected to watch as opposed to how many people live in the area?
One other point, is there a place to review the conference charter? I know there are penalties for leaving the conference but if 8 teams leave, I can't imagine the other 4 get to split the penalty dollars. I would have to think that the TV contract currently in place would dissolve if a certain number of schools leave.
oxcaljayhawk (anonymous) replies…
You're right. KU is a nat'l draw. Plus ESPN needs a good basketball game in the Central Time Zone for Big Monday. If we were forced to join CUSA, they would still put KU on b/c games like KU/Memphis would still attactive to a large audience.
approx (anonymous) says…
Keegan: Had to do a doubletake when reading the words "Lew" and "fired" next to each other in a sentence!
brauny1280 (anonymous) says…
I find it hard to believe that no one has mentioned the added cost that it would take for these conference realignments. The biggest added cost would be for travel expenses. Instead of hoping on a bus to go from Lincoln to... Lawrence, Manhattan, Ames etc. you would have to hop on a plane to go to Bloomington, Champagne, etc. Sure the football and basketball teams could afford to do that but sports such as tennis, volleyball, baseball and softball couldn't.
Can you imagine the strain it would put on fans trying to attend away games? Or how about the added time lost by student-athletes from the classroom? I know they all have tutors but tutors were not meant to replace professors.
Funhawk (anonymous) replies…
It is surprising that no one brings up the added traveling costs for the schools. Then again, traveling costs are probably a drop in the bucket compared to added TV revenues. TV controls so much of our lives nowadays. We Jayhawk fans are now getting a dose of reality. Kansas does not have enough people for the big TV advertisers. Perhaps the Big 8/Big XII was a good, long run for KU. Can you see KU being an independent in no conference? KU and K-State could always join a mid-major conference, like the Missouri Valley. Heck, a mid-major school always upsets us in the NCAA Basketball Tournament. I think KU's first sports conference was called the Missouri Valley, come to think of it. What will be really odd is having no more Mizzou rivalry games. College football and basketball is big, big business and colleges are primarily in business to maximize profits, hence colleges are in the sports business, and the dumming down of america continues.
DevilHawk (anonymous) says…
The Pac-10 doesn't want anything from the Big-12 except the TV markets that UT provides. They would only bring in the other five schools in order to recreate the Pac-8 in the form of the P16-West by shifting Arizona and ASU to the P16-East. CU is a natural fit in the conference, but the Pac-10 will only add two teams or six teams - not any other number.
raprichard (anonymous) says…
My question is this: What does the Pac 10 have that the Big XII doesn't? I know the obvious answer is California and the major TV markets there, but is there really that much interest in LA, SD and SF for college athletics? Other than USC, the Pac 10 has seemed to be a relatively weak conference for the past several years.
Why doesn't the Big XII issue a statement saying we are going to keep our current 12 teams and offer ASU and UofA from the west and Memphis and Louisville (or Cincinatti) from the east and expand to 16 teams, adding the markets of Phoenix, Tuscon, Cincinatti, Memphis, and/or Louisville. We could also be agressive and go after Arkansas, although I think it is doubtful they would leave the SEC. Then we could have a 16 team power conference with a much larger geographical footprint with larger TV markets.
Why does the Big XII always react instead of being proactive!!
FreddyinLA (anonymous) says…
FunHawk, my exact thought. Us, as Williams Funds doners will be expected to now fly every minor sport athlete to Washington, Oregon, No and So Cal, and Zona multiple times each year to do what, get our a$$es handed to us.
Travel costs will kill the athletic department. Think a minute people.
No way I'm I paying for this.
Go to the Missouri Valley Conference and Independent in Men's Basketball.
oxcaljayhawk (anonymous) replies…
What about KU and KSU going to the Mountain West? That gives KU BB a recruiting toe hold in dfw(tcu), Vegas and SoCal (SDSU). The league could then adjust the start times of their BB games so they can be on Big Monday. If the B12 goes bye-bye there will be an open slot at the Fiesta Bowl. The revised MW would be in a strong position to argue that it should be in the BCS because it would be competitive in both FB and BB.
jhokfan (anonymous) says…
Seems like adding OSU and a third Texas school is overkill for the Texas and Oklahoma markets. KU may not be a draw for football but adding KU along with Arizona and UCLA would make for some exciting basketball.
oxcaljayhawk (anonymous) says…
@Rap-the answer to your question is that with the exception of USC football (and we'll see what happens in the post-Carroll era) there is very little interest in college sports in SF and LA and virtually none in SD. Washington State v. Texas Tech FB is not going to turn on one single more tv in CA, in fact it will cause many to turn off. The UC schools, like the entire state, are hurting for money and the least thing they want to do is spend money flying their tennis teams to Noman.
I'll say it until someone puts up a good argument otherwise-Stanford, the UC schools, and SC don't want the TX and OK schools b/c it will destroy their brand. The blog is hoax designed to scare other members of the B12 to run to UT for protection at the expense of more money for UT.
raprichard (anonymous) replies…
I tend to agree with you to an extent. However, the simple fact remains that the Big XII is the subject of all sorts of expansion rumors with teams leaving to who knows what conference. Why is the Big XII not actively seeking to add members, or at least put that thought in people's minds? I hate the reactive position we are always in. It allows others to (at least apparently) dictate our fate.
I would think Louisville, Cincinatti and Memphis would love to be a part of the Big XII. It would give them instant credibility and it would expand the Big XII into three more significant media markets. In addition, while there would be some increased travel, all three of those schools are relatively close (no farther than CU or Texas). Throw in TCU or even New Mexico and you would have a 16 team power conference. I can't stand Keitzman, but he proposed something similar and I love this idea.
Forget about getting raided. Lets raid someone else.
lighthawk (anonymous) says…
the sky is falling the sky is falling, Mr. Longhorn will you save us,
I would rather be at round table of equals, with NE MU Wisc. Iowa, Northwestern, Illinoise, Minn Gophers in the wetern Big 10 than in the conf. dominated by Texas. Anyone recall couple years ago, when Texas won a co/share B12 Basketball title and was crowned with the trophy by the B12 comissioner?
To survive the musical conference chair dance we may be forced to cut loose of Manhattan, if board of regents have the political will.
With all Lew's warts, this should be one area he would shine, get a new KUAD if we must, for violation of state ethics rules, yet appoint him KU Ambassodor of conf. alignment as a consultant. Pay him 10% of the 300 million we would gain over the next ten years jumping ships.
jhokfan (anonymous) says…
Rap:
I grew up in Washington State and in spite of the down years for the Huskies, there is a lot of interest in football. Since Don James left the UW, the football program has declined and the basketball program has improved dramatically but they still consider themselves a football school. Lots of interest in Oregon as well. I lived in the Bay Area for about 6 years and except for the Cal-Stanford game they’re not that fanatic about college sports. From what I’ve heard about southern California, USC would generate more interest than an NFL team. What the Pac 10 does have is markets. There are lots of TVs in Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Oakland, Los Angeles and Phoenix.
Krohnutz (anonymous) says…
If it comes down to selling our soul to Texas for the Big 12 to survive, R.I.P. Big 12.
No other team in college sports history has received so much favoritism from a conference office.
So assuming this goes through, what move can KU make to improve their situation?
First off, this won't affect basketball, which is a comparatively cheap sport to fund. For the most part, this is driven by, and mainly affects, football dollars.
I think Lew is insane if the Big 10 EVER called and he didn't attempt to work a deal. I doubt they called, actually, but who knows. I would like to see KU end up in the Big 10, but I am not sure how that would come about. Perhaps if Notre Dame, for whatever reason, cannot see the writing on the wall, it would entice the Big 10 to open up that slot.
lighthawk (anonymous) replies…
agreed. min. opinion yet. agreed
why did you keep marrying abusing husbands, because Longhorn loved me.
kuhwks (anonymous) says…
The Big 12 is in a far more powerful position than anyone thinks when it comes to the Pac 10. The Pac 10 television deal is the worst of all the BCS conferences. That won't change without adding the Texas schools or working collectively with the Big 12 on their next TV contract.
Texas does, unfortunately, hold almost all the cards. If they stay, then the Big 12 can play hard ball with or without MU and/or NU.
Maybe this was a ploy by UT to make the rest of the Big 12 sit back in their chairs and shut up about revenue sharing equality, or maybe the Pac 10 realized who was in control and decided to make a strike before the Big 12 did.
Now, if the South leaves, KU would be smart to try and persuade the Big 10 to change their thought to adding the North 5 of nu, mu, ku, ksu, and ISU assuming that Notre Dame doesn't join the Big 10. Otherwise, the remaining 6 or 4 in the Big 12 have one thing that is in their favor, a automatic BCS bowl birth. That gives them leverage to add teams from the MWC, Conf USA, or WAC of their chosing. If KU is one of 4 remaining teams in the Big 12, it puts KU in the drivers seat if it choses to take the Big 12 and reform it as the "big dog" of the conference.
Keep this in mind also, if any of the 6 teams supposedly invited to the Pac 10 decline, KU is likely to be the next invitee, although joining up with what appears to be one of the weak sisters of the BCS doesn't make a lot of sense to me. The only league worse than the Pac 10 currently is the Big Least when you look at automatic BCS leagues. Big 12 and SEC are 1a and 1b, Big 10 is 3rd, ACC 4a, Pac 10 4b, and Big East is last for sure.
justanotherfan (anonymous) says…
This whole realignment thing has always been about two things - football and television. In this discussion, basketball is irrelevant. The two things driving this expansion train are football and television.
Ignoring the realignment talk is foolish. Something is going to happen.
I'm guessing that when the dust settles, there may be five 12-16 team "power conferences." If one conference expands, expect them all to try and expand.
If you have been watching carefully, you will realize that its a very real possibility that the NCAA will not be overseeing college football for very much longer. They already do not oversee the D-1 championship system. What's to stop the "power" conferences from completely breaking away from the NCAA in football and regulating themselves - i.e. the BCS conferences being completely separate from NCAA rules, Clearinghouse, etc and thereby regulating themselves. They have separate meetings already. They have separate television deals (the NCAA does not have a D-1 television contract in football). And if it happens in football, can basketball be far behind? After all, the NCAA is hemorraging money. Everything they make on basketball (their cash cow) is spent regulating the minor sports, or the lower divisions. Remember, the only sports that consistently break even in college sports are D-1 football and D-1 mens basketball. Some D-2 football and basketball teams break even, but few turn more than a very modest profit.
The plus side for all of this is that if the BCS conferences break off, there is a real possibility that in the next television deal, there is a playoff between the BCS champions. However, it would only be between the top 4 (or 8) teams in BCS conferences - sorry BYU, Boise, Utah, TCU, etc.
jaybate (anonymous) says…
jaf,
If you are right, downstream is the permanent divorce of basketball from football in college athletics, which I think would be wonderful. I hate football and anything to do with it. :-)
Basketball programs would organize into basketball conferences and football programs would organize into football conferences, which would make a lot of sense.Too much sense, I fear.
So: I suspect you have a piece of the puzzle right, but may be overlooking other factors.
Nevertheless, you added a lot of insight for me.
Krohnutz (anonymous) says…
Nobody is going to add Iowa State to a power conference. So when the discussion comes about the Big 10 adding six more programs, it won't be Iowa State.
Right now, Cyclone fans have to be thinking of the Missouri Valley or something similar.
I have always hated Texas. In fifteen years of the Big 12 kissing their ass they have developed next to zero loyalty for the conference as a whole. Let them go to the Pac 10, let them be another conferences brat.
All I want is to get into the Big 10. I want basketball games against Michigant State, Illinois, and Ohio State every season. I want in a conference for football that doesn't "almost" change fair rules because "OMG" the team left out is Texas.
If Lew gets us into the Big 10, he can give tickets to whomever he so decides.
bb73 (anonymous) replies…
You're right about UT & loyalty toward the Big 12. All you have to do is spend a week in the Texas media sports markets to believe it.
lighthawk (anonymous) replies…
I agree. it's musical chairs and the music will stop soon and we aren't in reach of a chair, with small kansas markets and distant geography.
If Lew can squeak us into the Western Big 10 he can give away tix and keep the rehab equipment.
everyone is real nice when there is plenty of food and water. college sports is about to get a little tense and the TV executives will control the re/districting.
jaybate (anonymous) says…
"Understanding the Pac 10 Move, If Its Not Just UT Psy-Ops"
The long term goal of any super conference has to be to span 4 time zones. The first conference to span 4 time zones wins. Period. Winning means it becomes the undisputed master of its television destiny, because it can entirely by itself supply content for every TV time slot in every time zone that a network would require to cut a deal with a single conference. The NCAA used to have that whammy and that was why the TV contracts used to be with the NCAA. But the networks long ago decided to cut out the middle man, and so did the major football schools; that much the schools and the networks could agree on. NCAA exit stage right. A cobbled together intermediate college football television contract followed. Now, because of terrible economic times forecast to continue for a decade or more, universities and their football programs, especially, have to gamble big on forcing realignment in hopes of making more money, much more.
The Pac 10 is odd man out unless it can break up the Big12. They are useless except for filling out the butt end of a 4 time zone TV schedule. If they want to matter long term, whether in football, or basketball, they have to break out of their Pacific Time Zone ghetto and in a big way.
What the Pac 10 is fantasizing about is this: cherry pick the B12 schools mentioned in this story, then merge with the SEC into the nation's first 4 time zone super conference. The Texas and Oklahoma schools would create the Central Time Zone presense. Colorado and the Arizona schools would create the Mountain Time Zone presense, though they would probably be smart to add New Mexico, if it were willing to get serious about football, and one of the Utah schools. Add a solid south from the SEC and you have all the content required. The ACC would even be a good fit though not necessary.
Of course, I don't think there is an armadillo's chance in Houston rush hour of the Pac Ten pulling this off. Conferences will more likely cherry pick the Pac 10, because it is bargaining from weakness to begin with.
jaybate (anonymous) says…
Last Reposting...
Dear Tom,
Please ask former KU Chancellor Robert Hemenway what, if anything, he knows about all this ticket diverting and scalping, and the related investigations. He appears to be the highest ranking KU official that was on duty from when the ticket diversions started apparently under AD Bohl's watch (note: Hemenway appeared to be instrumental in attracting and shortly dismissing AD Bohl) and then continued on AD Perkins' watch. Mr. Hemenway was Chancellor of the University of Kentucky from 1989-1995 before coming to KU, and at University of Oklahoma before that. Those schools have had significant sports scandals and significant clean ups. He ought to have considerable expertise to share and he is apparently on the KU faculty. A brief online search suggests Mr. Hemenway may be officed at the Hall Center for the Humanities, though I have no idea what he may do there. A phone number and an email can probably be gotten at KU's Online Faculty web page. The same brief online search suggests former Chancellor Hemenway may even be writing a book about college athletics. He seems a natural to interview on the subject. At least give him a chance to say, "I don't know diddledy squat about it," or "no comment," or "Glad you asked, here's what I know..." It seems the right thing to do.
Rock Chalk!
bb73 (anonymous) says…
Not sure it's about TV markets alone. According to Nielsen Media Research, Tulsa 528,000 TV households (ranked 61st) and OKC 694,000 (45th) is less than the KC's 941,000 (32nd) and Witchita-Hutch 452,000 (69th). Nebraska is even worse, Omaha has 410,000 (76th) and Lincoln-Hastings 281,000 (105th).
http://www.tvb.org/rcentral/markettra...
Lubbock is at a paltry 148th out of 210 markets. Don't try selling me that Tech is a higher profile athletic school than KU with a tiny regional TV market?
It's apparent that the Big 12 ADs are more apprehensive and confused now than they were last week.
Keegan is right about UT controlling the game here. However, UT is not totally able to go solo in the state of Texas. When the Big 12 was formed big-time politicians (Baylor alums) insisted, as the story goes, that Baylor be included along with the other swc state schools (Tech, A&M, UT). All the other SWC schools were & are private. So TCU, Rice, Houston, SMU were frozen out. I think the same dynamic is at work with the PAC 10 rumors, except those Baylor alums are no longer in as powerful political position as before. This may also explain the OSU & OU pairing.
All that may be needed to keep the BIG 12 intact is to keep OSU & OU. I believe UT wields great power and can indeed keep the Big 12 together. However, I don't think you'll see them make a unilateral move without the cover of other schools.
jph09 (anonymous) replies…
Baylor is actually private also, which makes it even more galling that Houston (an actually fairly large public university) was left out of the Big 12 in favor of a tiny Baptist (Methodist?) school. Baylor belongs in Conference USA with Tulsa (a school of similar size).
Anyway, I'm not a KU or KSU fan so I don't know what the deal is going to be, but will the Kansas legislature allow KU to go to the Big 10 without K-State? I would figure no. Anyone know?
njjayhawk (anonymous) says…
Forget Hemenway writing a book: we KU diehard faithfull should be the ones writing a book; one that chronicles the circus that has been Mr. Oread for over a decade, encompassing Hemenway, Al Bohl, the Roy Williams resignation, Terry Allen, Mark Mangino, Lew Perkins, ticket scandals, fights between football and basketball teams, on and on. We would have to legally battle The National Enquirer for the copyright to the KU story.
By the way, I understand Lew was not in KC this week because he was reclining on Dr. Phil's couch in LA, downloading to Dr. Phil that BGL is turning up the heat to white-hot levels. Just like Dan Beebe from the Big 12 meetings, no word from Dr. Phil on Lew's sessions.
Lastly, is BGL still in London visiting the Queen? Word has it her next stops may include Moscow with Putin and a dead Lenin, then Tehran with Mamoud Ahmadinejad and KU alums there for an "enriched uranium mixer and fund raiser", and a final stop at the North Pole to call on Santa Claus and KU donors at a festive "pre-Holiday gift exchange". True?