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2008 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Thursday, March 27, 2008

Keegan

Keegan: Guessing really is the best

By Tom Keegan

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Full video coverage of the Kansas Jayhawks in the 2008 NCAA Tournament

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2008 NCAA Tournament

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Detroit — The crystal ball has no answers when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. It's no different from the rest of us. We're all guessing. After all, who knows more about college basketball than recently retired coach Bob Knight? He picked Pittsburgh to win it all, and the Panthers didn't make it out of the first weekend.

Next time you hear someone start a sentence with "In order to win the NCAA Tournament, a team needs to ... " hit the mute button. Or walk away.

That sentence used to be finished "have a dominant, go-to scorer."

Florida debunked that theory by winning the past two national titles. Taurean Green led the Gators in scoring last season with 17 percent of the team's points. The year before that, Joakim Noah led the Gators with 18 percent of their points. The year before that, Sean May led North Carolina to the national title scoring 20 percent of its points. In 2004, UConn guard Ben Gordon did 24 percent of the Huskies' scoring. Carmelo Anthony was responsible for 28 percent of Syracuse's offensive output. In 2002, Juan Dixon had 24 percent of Maryland's points.

Kansas could cut down the nets in San Antonio. Leading scorer Darrell Arthur has done 16 percent of the Jayhawks' scoring. Davidson has won 24 in a row. Extending the streak four more games is neither likely nor impossible. Sophomore Stephen Curry, who has scored 55 second-half points in two tournament games, has done 33 percent of Davidson's scoring.

The nice thing about scoring balance is that teams can survive when a key player has an off night. The nice thing about having a dominant scorer is that indecisiveness doesn't creep in on a make-or-break play.

One player is considered the most clutch scorer on the Jayhawks, as was reiterated by KU senior Jeremy Case when he and Matt Kleinmann were watching a down-to-the-wire tourney game in the locker room last week in Omaha.

Kleinmann to Case: "All right, coach Case, what you gonna do here?"

Case: "I give the ball to Mario Chalmers and tell him to go get me a score."

Earlier in the game, KU doesn't have to hesitate. The goal always is to get the ball to Arthur.

"We're pretty much a balanced team, but we're always trying to play inside-out," Arthur said. "We've got eight starters. Anybody can get hot any day, and whoever is hot is who we try to keep going to."

It's a versatile roster packed with players who can score in multiple ways. When Arthur looks under the hood of his offensive game, here's what he sees: "I can play inside and out. I like to face up a lot. I like my turnaround game, my jumper, and I like my left-shoulder hook shot."

Those methods of scoring don't work when Arthur's on the bench, nursing foul trouble.

"When I think about fouls," Arthur said, "that's when I usually get a foul. I keep my mind on playing with my head and my feet and sliding. I think I'm doing a better job of it."

If Arthur (nine personals in past four games) can stay out of foul trouble at Ford Field, the guess here is KU will advance to the Final Four, but it's just a guess.

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Comments

kushaw (anonymous) says...

So far I've done 100 percent of the posts! I bet whomever posts second will have done 50 percent of the posts! Hmmmmmmmmmm!

March 27, 2008 at 6:18 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

easyfive (anonymous) says...

I wish the writers of LJW sports would go away. Then get some KU people to write for us.
These guys suck big time...

March 27, 2008 at 6:52 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

NH_JHawk (anonymous) says...

Huh? Mello wasn't a "dominant go-to scorer?"

March 27, 2008 at 7:02 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

mvjayhawk (anonymous) says...

Danny Manning averaged 25 a game in '88....i would reckon that was in the 30s, as far as a percentage of team points. Is that a dominant scorer?
Arthur is at 16%, but that better hold this weekend. He wasn't in it vs. UNLV....let's hope it's just one bad game.
Just play pressure D, rebound and handle the ball.....it's a very simple formula for KU. Go Jayhawks!

March 27, 2008 at 7:39 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

PittsburghJayhawk (anonymous) says...

Someone pointed out an interesting observation to me today. In every year that ends with 8 (with the exception of 1968), the NCAA tournament has been won by a team starting with the letter K and by a coach with a one-syllable last name.

1948 - Kentucky (Adolph Rupp)
1958 - Kentucky (Rupp)
1968 - UCLA (John Wooden) [The exception that proves the rule?]
1978 - Kentucky (Joe B. Hall)
1988 - Kansas (Larry Brown)
1998 - Kentucky (Tubby Smith)
2008 - Kansas (Bill Self)????????

This could be our year. Just food for thought for you superstitious types.

March 27, 2008 at 8:05 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

Studogg (anonymous) says...

PittJay,
That is eerie. I love little stuff like that. Nice catch. Usually I'd brush it off as coincidence, but six straight decades is hard to ignore. Let's hope it holds true to form.

March 27, 2008 at 8:29 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

Lebowski (anonymous) says...

Lol.. interesting find Pitts. I like it.

NHJHawk... I don't believe that's what Keegan is saying. I think he means that each year since, the nat'l champs have relied less and less on someone to shoulder that much of the scoring load.

March 27, 2008 at 8:32 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

tashe2 (anonymous) says...

Pittsburgh Jayhawk.. Thats a pretty awesome observations... lets hope it turns out like that huh?

Rock Chalk Jayhawk

National Champions 2008

March 27, 2008 at 8:59 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

straight (anonymous) says...

Those few of you who constantly post derogatory comments about the LJW and its sportswriters should wake up to how pathetic you appear to the rest of us. First, it's transparent that you are losers who need to tear down others in a desperate attempt to elevate yourselves. Second, how sad that you would come back day after day after day to read and comment on stories that you think are beneath you. The rest of us notice the occasional mistakes and we do not agree with everything that is written, but we appreciate and enjoy the work these sportswriters do.

March 27, 2008 at 10:11 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

63Jayhawk (anonymous) says...

Well said Straight! I can't imagine trying to write something new, original and interesting every day about the same subject (the Jayhawks). As far as I know, it is not required reading. If one doesn't enjoy reading the LJW artlicles, there are other newspapers and web sites. Personally, I really appreciate the LJW staff. Not living nearby KU, the LJW staff members keep me informed and increase my enjoyment of the games that I never miss on TV. Thank you LJW staff. Rock Chalk Jayhawk!

March 27, 2008 at 10:54 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

skwahjayog (anonymous) says...

AMEN, Straight and 63 Jayhawk! I live in Michigan, and I can't wait for my daily dose of the LJW basketball and/or football articles. I enjoy reading the blogs as well, sometimes just to chuckle at how stupid some of the comments truly are. Even as a public school teacher and former copywriter, I can't imagine the pressure of having to come up with different angles on the same team day after day after day.

Awesome job, LJW writers--and ignore the ignorant, self-inflating comments. You have many more fans than critics! rcjh!

p.s. Can't wait for the game tomorrow night--I'm taking our 11-year-old son to his second Jayhawk game. Hope we have better results than two years ago! :-)

March 27, 2008 at 11:14 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

jross1972 (Joe Ross) says...

djkc28....

As a KU fan, I certainly hope we win the title the year. It has been awfully embarrassing to not have won it all in 20 years with the teams we've had come through here and to be the storied program we are.

There is nothing wrong with obsessing about anything having to do with bringing a championship home.

March 27, 2008 at 11:39 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

extremewagoneer (anonymous) says...

Not that Kansas needs the starts to align to win it all this year, we are good enough to win it on our own, there are a lot of coincidences that tend to by pointing that this is the year,
the stat from pittsburg jayhawk
"Someone pointed out an interesting observation to me today. In every year that ends with 8 (with the exception of 1968), the NCAA tournament has been won by a team starting with the letter K and by a coach with a one-syllable last name."

"1948 - Kentucky (Adolph Rupp)
1958 - Kentucky (Rupp)
1968 - UCLA (John Wooden) [The exception that proves the rule?]
1978 - Kentucky (Joe B. Hall)
1988 - Kansas (Larry Brown)
1998 - Kentucky (Tubby Smith)
2008 - Kansas (Bill Self)????????

Not to mention Kansas state is in our region for first time since 1988, this year is the 20 year reunion. We are following a similar path as in '88, Omaha-Detroit-not Kansas city though, the year North Carolina won it all, they played villanova then wisconsin, Kansas most likely will play villanova then wisconsin. in 88 kansas state beat Ku regular season, there are surely a lot more statistics that i am not remembering but this year is the year, Rock CHalk Jayhawk

March 27, 2008 at 2:04 p.m. ( | suggest removal )