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Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Bubble trouble?

Which teams are in and which are out from the Big 12 Conference

By Eric Sorrentino

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Photo by Karl Gehring

Big 12 Tournament changing championship game-night

After this week's festivities in Kansas City, say goodbye to Sunday championship games in the Big 12 Tournament.

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Big 12 Spotlight 03-12-08

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Big 12 history

Here's a list of how many teams the Big 12 Conference has put in the tournament in its 11-year history:

1996-97: 5 (CU, ISU, KU, OU, UT)

1997-98: 4 (KU, NU, OU, OSU)

1998-99: 5 (KU, MU, OSU, OU, UT)

1999-00: 6 (ISU, KU, MU, OU, OSU, UT)

2000-01: 6 (ISU, KU, MU, OU, OSU, UT)

2001-02: 6 (KU, MU, OU, OSU, UT, TTU)

2002-03: 6 (CU, KU, MU, OU, OSU, UT)

2003-04: 4 (OSU, KU, UT, TTU)

2004-05: 6 (ISU, KU, OU, OSU, UT, TTU)

2005-06: 4 (KU, OU, UT, A&M)

2006-07: 4 (KU, UT, A&M, TTU)

Big 12 Spotlight

Big 12 Conference basketball fans have two ways of looking at their teams' chances of competing in the big dance, which begins March 20.

Situation No. 1: Glass half full.

Optimistically, the Big 12 has a chance to land as many as six bids to the tournament.

The conference hasn't had six teams participate since the 2004-2005 season. This year, however, five teams have conference records above .500. Six teams also have won at least 20 games.

Another factor working in the conference's favor is the fact that the Big 12 is the second-ranked conference in the nation in the RPI. Six Big 12 teams are in the Top 50 of the index.

Then, there's situation No. 2: Glass half empty.

Pessimistically, the conference has only had two consistent teams - Kansas and Texas. The other teams have failed to play well away from home.

Selection Sunday is four days away. Who's in and who's out from the Big 12?

Here's a glimpse into the Journal-World's crystal ball:

Locks

1. Kansas (28-3 overall, 13-3 Big 12)

Quick hits: The Jayhawks are playing their best basketball at the proper time of year. Since losing to Oklahoma State, KU's four wins have been by an average of 25 points. That, of course, included the 58-point drubbing of Texas Tech.

Why they could go far: Depth and experience. KU coach Bill Self has one of the deepest benches in the nation. Furthermore, everyone who logs regular minutes, with the exception of Cole Aldrich, has played in the NCAA Tournament already. The chance of another Bucknell or Bradley episode is as likely as snow falling in Lawrence in July.

Predicted seed: 2

2. Texas (26-5, 13-3)

Quick hits: The co-Big 12 champions enter this weekend's conference tournament with a Big 12-best fifth-ranked RPI in the nation.

Why they could go far: D.J. Augustin.

Championship-caliber teams typically have great point guards. Florida draped two consecutive national title banners in Gainesville with Taurean Green as its floor general. North Carolina won the year before that with Raymond Felton as its point guard.

Augustin averages 19.8 points and 5.7 assists per game, and has UT playing at a higher level than when Kevin Durant was around last season. For some perspective, Augustin's point and assist numbers are better than UCLA's Darren Collison (14.6, 4.1), Memphis' Derrick Rose (14.1, 4.5) and North Carolina's Ty Lawson (12.9, 5.5).

Predicted seed: 2

Semi-automatic locks

3. Kansas State (20-10, 10-6)

Quick hits: The Wildcats' 44th-rated RPI is slightly unimpressive. In fact, Oklahoma (No. 25 in RPI) and Baylor (No. 34) rank better in the index.

With that said, if Kansas State wins once in Kansas City, there's no way it doesn't make the NCAA's. The Wildcats haven't made the NCAA Tournament since 1996.

Argument for: Surely, the nominating committee will consider 10 Big 12 victories in the second-toughest conference in the nation. Oklahoma may have a better RPI, but K-State won the head-to-head battle this season in Norman, Okla.

Argument against: The only way the Wildcats miss the tournament is with a second-round loss in the conference tournament and a bizarre scene, such as Texas A&M or Oklahoma State making a run for the Big 12 tournament title.

Predicted seed: 8

4. Oklahoma (21-10, 9-7)

Quick hits: The Sooners have won their final three games to finish 9-7 in the Big 12.

Argument for: If the Top 25 relied solely upon RPI, OU (No. 25) would be ranked. The impressive schedule has included non-conference games against then-No. 3 Memphis, No. 24 USC, No. 20 Gonzaga, No. 23 West Virginia.

Argument against: OU is 2-6 against ranked teams this year.

Predicted seed: 8

Bubble teams

5. Baylor (21-9, 9-7)

Quick hits: The Bears have won four of their last five games. If Baylor defeats Colorado, it would set up Baylor-Oklahoma, Part III. OU defeated Baylor twice already, including once in overtime.

Baylor hasn't participated in the NCAA Tournament since 1988.

Argument for: Baylor has the 34th-ranked RPI in the nation. Quality wins include Notre Dame, then-No. 16 Texas A&M and then-No. 25 Kansas State.

Argument against: Is there a signature win on the schedule? If it's Notre Dame, that game took place Nov. 18.

Predicted seed: 10

6. Texas A&M (22-9, 8-8)

Quick hits: The departure of Acie Law IV has left the Aggies without a go-to scorer in the clutch. A&M's record is a perfect indicator of its roller-coaster season.

The Big 12 tournament is arguably more important for the Aggies' NCAA Tournament status than any other conference team.

Argument for: Texas A&M has a signature win against Texas. The Aggies started the season 20-4, and 22 (victories) is typically a number the committee likes.

Argument against: The Aggies finished the season 2-5. If A&M loses against Iowa State in the first round of the Big 12 tournament, the committee could deem A&M too inconsistent for an NCAA ticket.

Predicted seed: 12

NIT-bound

7. Oklahoma State (7-9, 16-14)

Briefly: Cowboys are likely only team not a lock or a bubble team that has an outside chance of winning Big 12 tournament. Obviously, that's their only shot.

8. Nebraska (18-11, 7-9)

Briefly: Huskers haven't had 20-win season since 1998-99.

9. Texas Tech (16-14, 7-9)

Briefly: Coach Pat Knight was realistic in saying he'd be content with NIT this year.

Better luck next year

10. Missouri (16-15, 6-10)

Very briefly: Too many off-the-court distractions to be competitive this season.

11. Iowa State (14-17, 4-12)

Very briefly: 14-6 at home, 1-10 on road.

12. Colorado (11-19, 3-13)

Very briefly: Give CU coach Jeff Bzdelik time to recruit.

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Comments

NH_JHawk (anonymous) says...

Totally amusing to see Mizzou at the bottom of the list. Kinda like Mizzou's appearance in a BCS Bowl game: "Better luck next year" lol....

I'm not sure the B12 will get 6 teams in despite having the 2nd best conference RPI. Perhaps not even 5.

Unfortunately when teams like San Diego win their conference tourney they force out other bubble teams like Baylor. Hard to imagine the WCC getting 3 teams in, but that's what's going to happen this year, even though there are other midmajors with higher conference RPIs (see Mo. Valley). Guess that's why they call it March Madness.

March 12, 2008 at 7:28 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

hobrauer (anonymous) says...

NH_JHawk, while I hope that you are wrong and we get six in the tourney, what you said is right on. One thing that I think should be added to your assessment is to mention the east coast bias that, year after year, discounts the strength of the Big XII.

March 12, 2008 at 12:18 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

jhwkfan162515 (anonymous) says...

Although obviously a die-hard Jayhawk fan, I thought our cousins down the road at K-State got totally screwed last year. If this year's bunch from Manhattan doesn't get in again, somebody's paid somebody else. Maybe that was why Duke, Virginia Tech, or Stanford got in last year's tourney; it's all about dollar signs...

March 12, 2008 at 1:48 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

jross1972 (Joe Ross) says...

jhawkfan1625...

You refer to KState as "cousins"???? You're joking right? And what do you care if they get screwed or not? Do you have KSU sympathies?

March 12, 2008 at 2:13 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

soapboxstew (anonymous) says...

I've been paying close attention to the brackets (on all sites) since Monday. Here's how I see it:
1. I do not want to play UNC in NC to go to the F4. They don't leave their home state; and they are getting healthy and better every game. The selection crew would be jobbing us if we ended up in the East (against the overall #1 seed). We are at worst the #2 2 seed, most likely the #1 2 seed if not a #1 seed (with me so far?).
2. Most people on this site don't want to see UCLA. I say bring them on! Even if it is in the West. Those 2 gifts by the zebras is the only reason that UCLA is still a #1 seed. Besides, We beat us last year with 32 missed dunks and lay-ups. And Affalo had the best game of anybody last year. They are a second half team that scores around 68 pts. a game. We would beat them.
3. Bring on Memphis or Tennessee in the Midwest or the South. The most common bracket on most sites has us playing Tennessee in the South or Midwest bracket. I say send us to the South bracket (#2 seed plays in Omaha) so that we are used to Texas for the F4.

The teams I want to see the least this year: UNC & Duke. Duke because of their 3's, UNC because Roy has a team that hits FT's now (could you imagine if his other teams could hit FT's @ KU?). I also don't want to see UNC in the East, at their place, far from here, against a now healthy team, playing HOT.
Everybody else is fair game. We must avoid those two.

March 12, 2008 at 2:34 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

bmcmich1 (anonymous) says...

JRoss,

For what it's worth, I refer to ksu as our red-headed stepbrother.

March 12, 2008 at 3:02 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

mtjayhawk (anonymous) says...

That should be purple-headed stepbrother!

March 12, 2008 at 4:18 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

bmcmich1 (anonymous) says...

touche, mtjay, too-shay!

March 12, 2008 at 6:41 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

jross1972 (Joe Ross) says...

I am no relation to anything having to do with that institution.

March 12, 2008 at 9:20 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

bmcmich1 (anonymous) says...

'institution' might be a stretch...

March 12, 2008 at 9:42 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

jhwkfan162515 (anonymous) says...

Whatever the Cats may be, they are fellow Kansans. I'm willing to stick up for them as long as they are not playing Kansas or North Carolina.

March 12, 2008 at 9:47 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

ralsterKUMed95 (anonymous) says...

Yes, just speaking as someone who grew up in the state of KS, nice to see the excitement "over there" in Manhattan--hey, Beasley is a phenomenal talent to watch, just from a bball fan's standpoint.
Now someone mentioned they were AFRAID of Duke (???). They beat UNC at UNCs house by hitting 3s, but could NOT hit the 3 in their own gym, and thus lost. Duke is a "midmajor" this year--2 6'8" guys. Gee, what would happen if they played KU? Do you really think that white point guard for Duke (cant even think of his name...) that shoots all the 3s can even keep up with Mario and Sherron. If we overplay the perimeter on defense, you think Duke is going to win an inside battle against 4 taller KU bigmen with their 2 6ft8in guys??
I would love to paste Duke and Coach K to the floor of whatever arena we would play them in, even at Duke Univ...

March 12, 2008 at 11:35 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

melrank (anonymous) says...

Too funny - I hate Duke.

I agree on North Carolina - they are a monster when they decide to play some defense. A lot of talent on that team.

But I'd be happy to take on Duke.

I can't fathom relating myself to someone from K-State, sorry. I have to admit that I would like to see Beasley get a shot in the tournament, though, so the rest of the Nation can see his talent and showcase what the Big XII has to offer.

March 13, 2008 at 2:25 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

kstatetraiter (anonymous) says...

We had a number one seed last year and got spanked. Doesn't matter 1 or 2 freakin get past the elite 8!!!!!!!!

Plus, i would love to play duke. KU would beat them by 20.

March 13, 2008 at 11:04 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

Jhawkerman (anonymous) says...

Scratch Baylor unless they make a huge comeback in the second half against colorado .. down big ..

March 13, 2008 at 2:58 p.m. ( | suggest removal )