Chuck

Good article, in my opinion, but he makes one error. While there is still a trend towards picking based on "upside" and "potential", I think starting with this draft and moving towards future drafts, that trend will die out a bit. I think there has been enough failed "potential" for GMs to realize picking proven players is a better idea...

had to break it to Woodling, but if Rose goes #1, Mayo could go #2 because the heat have made it pretty clear they don't want Beasley.

I think even more important than this draft this year is how well Greg Oden plays (if he plays) for Portland this year. Watch out for that team this year if he's healthy and plays.

As for this draft......the KU players are finding out that teamwork as opposed to individual play are still getting their names high up in the dfaft. If you perform well in your workouts, you will be noticed and you will get picked high.

Mark my words.....Chalmers might start his career on the bench, but before long, he WILL be starting for an NBA franchise. He's too good a player (shooting, defending, court vision, etc.....) to be left on the bench.

K-State does NOT have a "resurgent basketball program"! They "surged" all the way to the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament. Now, they are receeding back into the depths of the ocean. They won't break .500 next year.

Timmay: Good point about Chalmers! I think most GM's are finding out how long Chalmers really is. That is what they always say about the big guys. He might be 6'9", but his wing span makes him play a lot bigger than he. Travis Outlaw and Tayshaun Prince come to mind. Chalmers plays more like he's 6'3" or 6'4". I also think most GM's thought Chalmers was 6'1", which means he is probably 6'0" or less because colleges stretch their heights just a tad and when Chalmers came in a little bigger than advertised; I think that changed the mindset of a lot of teams. Chad Ford has him going #12 to Sacremento? Wow! How awesome would that be? Chalmers for most of the year was always overshadowed and he has the opportunity (Even thought I still think it's unlikely) to be drafted ahead of both Arthur and Rush. It's good to see Rush and Chalmers really take advantage of these individual workouts and try to make themselves more money and in Chalmers case get a sure fire guranteed contract.

Depending on what happens with Arthur and if he slides down the board he has only himself to blame. Arthur always played more on the softer side and his deameanor always looked like he wasn't playing with any attention. I am not saying that he wasn't, but GM's could misconstrue the same thinking about Arthur in his workouts. Either way it looks like 5 Jayhawks will be drafted and that is great for the jayhawks.

Yes, I did say 5 jayhawks because I am still 98 percent positive Kaun will still be drafted and that team will have the rights to him. I think it would be a smart move by a veteran team to take a guy like Kaun because in hindset whatever team drafts him isn't going to need his services right away anyway. Let him go get some experience, plus he'll get better coaching on that Russia team then say a guy like Phil Jackson. I do think if the celtics drafted Kaun, Doc Rivers would spend the time necessary to teach him some fundamentals. Kaun will be drafted, Kaun will play in Russia for 3 years, and Kaun will be in the NBA after his 3 year contract ready for NBA basketball.

kushaw,

I think you are right on the money about Kaun being drafted by a team willing to be patient and let him develop in Russia while holding on to his rights. Smart teams like San Antonio, Detroit, Phoenix, Dallas and others would fit that bill. Plus, his rights give whoever drafts him a tradeable piece in future negotiations with other teams.

Darrell is an interesting case. When draft talk started, he was a top 10 pick. Now he's all over the place. Some have him at 10, others slide him all the way down into the 20s. I think he goes sooner rather than later simply because he is athletic, with some go to offensive moves. Maybe not as polished defensively as you would like in the NBA to go against guys like Carmelo Anthony and Tim Duncan, but more than capable of holding his own off the bench until his defense develops. There are several teams picking in the middle of the first round - Cleveland, Washington, Orlando, Phoenix - that could use a scoring inside presence, especially because Darrell can run the floor.

Rush may sneak into the lottery, but more than likely he will be at 15, though even if he slides, he will be gone by the early 20s at the latest. Just too many teams that will be enchanted by an NBA ready defender with a sweet jumper.

Mario is tough to figure. I'm not sure that he benefits if he goes at 12, because the expectation of going that high means that he will probably be expected to start (especially on a weaker team like the Kings) right away. If he lands somewhere where he isn't expected to come right in, take over, and right the ship, I think he has a better chance of being successful long term. Mario is good for 12 pts and 6 assts, but if he ends up on a squad looking for him to go for 18 and 8 every night, he may stretch himself too far and become more inefficient with the basketball.

Darnell is the most intriguing, because he could go anywhere in the second round. Adding another banger who won't demand shots is always a nice luxury. My guess is that Darnell goes to Vegas this year, gets some exposure and experience in the summer league, then gets PT in the D-League before sticking with a team full time next year. Getting regular gametime run will help him more since he has only been playing ball since his freshman year in high school.

I'd feel much more confident with Danny coming out of college following his stellar 4 year career than any of the top potential picks this Thursday. Don't get me wrong Rose and Beasley will be solid picks but Danny did it all. Knee injuries before all the great rehab progress slowed him down in the NBA but he was a tremendous talent, a tremendous winner, tremendous teammate, and he loved the game.

Not 100% sold you can say that yet about these guys. I'd still take a "senior" experienced Danny over todays top dogs.

Rock Chalk Championship!

Kaun will not be drafted. He wont be for a combination of two reasons that, when put together, will eliminate him from the draft. His draft stock was already low but when you mix in the fact that he's earmarked to play overseas for 3 years (and perhaps longer because he wont get paid here what he does there), teams will not want to give a draft pick away for a player who wont pay dividends for that long.

"In 1988, Manning was the clear-cut No. 1, and it took the Clippers a mere 28 seconds of their allotted five minutes to choose him."

28 seconds?? if you have the #1 pick, you have several weeks to make that decision. stupid statement.

Experience is part of the equation. Luck is another. If Danny doesn't get hurt... what type of career might he have had. Same thing with Jay Williams with the Bulls a few years back. If he doesn't get on that motorcycle, what kind of ceiling does he have.

My thing is, people talk about the draft busts that were younger players (high schoolers, freshmen, etc) as if there were never any busts prior to that. Whether you draft a four year college player or a one year college player, the draft is a risk. Its a risk because you never know how a player will transition to the pros. You never know how they will handle the increased scrutiny, the increased criticism, the expectations, the athleticism, the travel, etc. Will they land in a good situation? Will they stay healthy? Will they be surrounded by the right pieces?

Although Manning had the talent, those other questions were answered in the negative. He landed in a lousy situation with the Clippers, didn't stay healthy and never got surrounded by the right pieces to help him succeed.

Is Michael Jordan's career looked at differently if the Bulls never surround him with the pieces to get him past the second round of the playoffs? Before Scottie Pippen and Horace Grant, the Bulls were a one man show, similar to the Cavs of today.

If Magic Johnson ends up in Phoenix, with a far less stellar supporting cast, does his career arc change? No showtime Lakers, etc.

If Malone and Stockton are never paired up, do their hall of fame careers lose luster?

If Larry Bird ends up a Seattle Supersonic, never teams with Parrish and McHale, never wins a ring, and wears something other than Celtic Green, does that change his place in the sport?

It's not just about drafting the right guy. It's about getting the right guy into the right situation, surrounded by the right people. Many players don't get that until later in their careers (see this year's Celtics). Some never do.

Jross, I respectfully disagree about a team not wanting to waste a pick. Generally, a 2nd round pick (especially at the bottom of the round) is not going to be someone they plan on carrying on their roster anyway... it may be more beneficial to draft a guy whom you KNOW what level of work he's going to get in. And I'd also venture to say Sasha's stock is higher than a lot of people think... but I won't say I disagree with the possibility that he might not get drafted.

I just look at the role guys like Pollard play. They don't remotely care what he brings to the table scoring-wise. He's got some skills on O, but that's not why he's employed. They look at what the guy can bring on defense and can he move. I'm pretty sure that NBA teams grade Sasha very highly in both of those regards. He just has extra bonuses in that he's a team-oriented guy and does the dirty work on both ends of the court.

Yes his rebounding might be a little bit of a red flag for them, but seriously... what NBA doesn't think they can teach a guy with Kaun's size and ability to do a better job of that? That, to me, is the ONLY thing that might turn a team away from him. But Sasha has the potential to be a lot more effective defensive sub that lots of big guys I see in the NBA. I think he gets drafted late in the second round by a smart team that has a history of making smart decisions. Taking a guy like Sasha would be another one.

I'd be more suprised to see Darnell get drafted, and as Self has stated, it would probably be best for him if he doesn't.