Woodling: Mario goes out on top

Posted Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Something unique appears about to happen … something that hasn’t occurred in the storied history of Kansas University’s men’s basketball program.

Now that Mario Chalmers has pulled the ripcord and confirmed he won’t be returning for his senior year, KU appears likely to produce its first hat trick. Never before have three Jayhawks been selected in the first round of the NBA Draft.

Thrice a pair of Jayhawks have been taken in the first round, starting with Scot Pollard and Jacque Vaughn in 1997. Two more — Raef LaFrentz and Paul Pierce — went the next year. And Kirk Hinrich and Nick Collison were first-rounders in 2003.

It’s been pretty much a given that Darrell Arthur and Brandon Rush would go in next week’s first round. Neither is projected as a lottery pick, but both are first-round locks.

Chalmers always has been the question mark and, with his announcement Sunday, it’s seems evident the multi-talented guard has gleaned enough from pre-draft camps to believe he’ll be tapped in the first round.

Maybe he will and maybe he won’t. Who knows when it comes to professional meat markets? I’ve never seen a mock draft yet that struck every nail with precision.

Nevertheless, I do know that Chalmers’ pro stock will never be higher than it is right now. In fact, I doubt he could improve his inherent skills with another college season, and I don’t think he can possibly enhance the perception of his ability that grew out of his performance in the NCAA championship game.

When it comes to analyzing Chalmers, the first thing you have to consider is his height. He’s listed at 6-foot-1, and guards that size are a dime a dozen. The NBADL is full of them.

If you stand 6-1 and want to play in the NBA, you must possess extraordinary skills, and Chalmers does have his strong points.

On the plus side, his wide wing span enables him to play taller than his listed height. Those long arms plus a quick first step enabled him to lead the Big 12 in steals last season. He can also shoot the rock. Chalmers hitting the most famous three-point goal in school history against Memphis wasn’t a fluke.

So what’s not to like? Not much, really. There is a problem, though. The pros like to categorize players, pigeon-hole them into roles, and Chalmers isn’t a clearly defined fit into a five-man jigsaw puzzle.

Even though he plays above his size, Chalmers would be destroyed by NBA shooting guards, most of whom stand 6-5 or taller. That means he has to play point guard and, to be honest, Chalmers doesn’t really possess the natural instincts for that position.

Chalmers is what they call a “tweener.” He’s a backcourt player who possesses off-guard and point-guard skills, but doesn’t squeeze comfortably into either cubby-hole.

I sure hope, for his sake, that Chalmers goes in the first round and earns a guaranteed contract. If he winds up as a second-rounder, he may be playing somewhere in the NBADL next season.

Regardless of where Chalmers performs on a basketball court next year, he had absolutely nothing left to prove as a collegian. And, of course, he always will have the personal satisfaction of knowing he went out on top.

Comments

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Posted by TheTruth08 (anonymous) on June 18, 2008 at 2:20 a.m. (Suggest removal)

This is BS! I'm thinking I'm going to read a column on how Mario is going out on top and Chuck spends most of it tearing him down. There's good 6-1 point guards up and down the rosters of the NBA. Mario's going to have a great career. That stellar defense and money jumper will make sure of that. I just hate this. I really, really hate this. This is BS! Mario will never see the NBADL.

Posted by TheTruth08 (anonymous) on June 18, 2008 at 2:29 a.m. (Suggest removal)

I mean, really. Have we not been watching the same guard for the last three years? I'd take Mario in a second and wouldnt' be mad if my Indiana Pacers selected him in the first or second round. I'd be overcome with joy! He's already a better point guard than Jamal Tinsley and the BS a coach has to put up with, dealing with him. Did Mario not show he can play against pro-level point guards? Did he not win most of those battles? Check the tape. NBADL? REALLY?! Come on!

Posted by melrank (anonymous) on June 18, 2008 at 7:50 a.m. (Suggest removal)

The Celtics Defense last night reminded me of the kind of defense that won us a championship.

While watching it, I honestly was thinking that Mario could do anything that Rajon Rondo was doing and have a similar impact on a team committed to that syle of play.

Good luck, Mario.

Posted by ChicagoJHawk (anonymous) on June 18, 2008 at 8:16 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Chalmers will do fine in the NBA. Best of luck to you Mario!

Posted by patton6 (anonymous) on June 18, 2008 at 8:24 a.m. (Suggest removal)

I love how Woodling points out that Chalmers has no point guard instincts. However, that "insight" loses a bit of credibility when you consider that even though he was playing shooting guard he still led the team (and nearly the league) with a 2.3 assist:turnover ratio.

http://statsheet.com...

Oh, and who is that behind him? Why, it's the shorter, yet lottery-projected point guard, DJ Augustin.

Posted by Hawklin (anonymous) on June 18, 2008 at 9 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Lotto is 14. Rush is projected at 13. Article says none of them have been projected in the lotto.

Posted by nameer (anonymous) on June 18, 2008 at 10:32 a.m. (Suggest removal)

I think the thing about Chalmers' high APG and A/TO ratio that cheapens it in the eyes of scouts is how many alley-oops KU did (I'm sure Chalmers averaged around 1 alley-oop assist per game) and how talented the rest of the players around him were. Its kind of how his steal number is slightly inflated because he plays the lanes alot. Thats not to say he isn't the most talented defender we had, I'd just say that Rush and Robinson were both better on-ball defenders, which makes Robinson's steal total more impressive.
Regardless, all this is nitpicking after the season is done. Anyone that had a scout at a majority of our games this season knows that Chalmers in a steal in the late first, especially going to a winning team already.

Posted by justanotherfan (anonymous) on June 18, 2008 at 10:54 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Chalmers is the type of guy that can really help a good team, but may be asked to do too much on a bad team.

On a team like Boston, Detroit, San Antonio, Phoenix, Dallas, New Orleans, Cleveland or elsewhere, I think Mario thrives. He wouldn't have to be "the man" or some sort of savior. He could just come in and play his game, be the third or fourth option on the floor and grow into a role.

On the other hand, playing for a bad team, like Charlotte, Seattle, the Clippers, New Jersey or New York, would expose Mario to teams with bad habits and put more pressure on him to get outside his game and try to average 20 ppg as the first or second option on the floor.

I think if Mario has a year or two as a back up, he will evolve into a starting point guard soon. However, if he is rushed and pushed into a bad situation, he may regress. That is why I am hoping that he goes towards the end of the first round, when teams that can let him develop behind high caliber guards (Billups in Detroit, Paul in New Orleans, Nash in Phoenix, Kidd and Terry in Dallas, Parker in San Antonio) are making their picks.

Rush and Arthur are much more NBA starting line up ready, which is where you want a potential lottery pick to be. Julian was fortunate to slip into a situation in New Orleans that was perfect for him from a development standpoint. He backs up a potential all-star, but still fits into a role for his team.

After all, Kwame Brown is a bust only because he was the #1 overall pick. Same with Michael Olowakandi. If those guys were picked in the low to mid twenties, they wouldn't get nearly as much grief, and consequently may have developed much better. Not comparing Mario to them, because he is much more developed than they were, but saying simply that he's a steal at 27, but probably not a good pick at 5, because at 5 you want someone that can turn your franchise around by himself, and Mario isn't that guy. He's a guy to put with a guy that can turn your team around, so that you can get to that next level.

Posted by lrahardja (anonymous) on June 18, 2008 at 1:30 p.m. (Suggest removal)

I agree that Mario may have a year or two as back-up point-guard. But I don't believe we have seen Mario's true potential, his ceiling is higher than what he showed during his college career. Remember that Self has always positioned him in between shooting guard and point guard. What matter most was when things matter, he was the one who created or took important shots. His court vision clearly fit NBA style and will allow him to develop as a true point guard in the NBA. He can identify plays before they happen. His shooting ability makes him a complete point guard.

He does need to develop his lower body strength and toughness while penetrating the lane, ability to absorb impact in the air and still make the basket is another trademark of NBA starting point guard that Mario yet possesses.

Posted by Strikewso (anonymous) on June 18, 2008 at 2:46 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Mario will be solid in the NBA. There will always be a market for a smooth, ice-water blooded sharp shooter like him.

Posted by actorman (anonymous) on June 18, 2008 at 3:11 p.m. (Suggest removal)

"Chalmers hitting the most famous three-point goal in school history against Memphis wasn’t a fluke."

Not to quibble or anything, but that's a ridiculous comment. The most famous "three-point goal" in school history??? Really??? That's all??? CW, can you name any other BASKET in KU history that's more famous? Calling it the most famous "three-point goal" is like saying it was the most famous "second-half basket" in KU history.

Good analysis, justanotherfan. I tend to agree with everything you said, and you're right on the mark that he could evolve into a starting role. I mean look at his unbelievable improvement from his freshman to his junior year. I see no reason to believe he couldn't continue to improve, as he seems to have the right mindset. Another factor that shouldn't be overlooked is the character factor. NBA teams have to love knowing that there's very little chance there will be any off-the-court problems associated with Mario.

Not one of CW's better articles. I can't imagine someone who's as great a defensive player and shooter as Mario being stuck in the NBDL.

Posted by Lebowski (anonymous) on June 18, 2008 at 4:34 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Not one of his better articles? Has to be the worst I've read on kusports.com. Easily.

Woodling officially made himself look like a donkey.... or a Tiger or a Wildcat. I can respect "keeping it real", but Chuckie... you've lost your mind in this article. You've had to have been watching someone else.

I've made so many comparisons of Chalmers to other guards today, I'm not about to get into them again. One thing I've said before and will say again... People didn't think of Hinrich as a PG in college because he shot it so well.. and KU had some other guards that didn't, so they were the "PG" by default. KU had that last year, too... but Mario STILL put up as good or better PG numbers than Robinson or any other "PG" in the big 12. Chalmers will be a PG, and a damn good one... right away.

Chalmers entire season last year, in my opinion, was the most consistent performance by a Jayhawk since Paul Pierce. I'm 100% confident Woodling will come out looking stupid on this one.

Posted by lee3022 (anonymous) on June 18, 2008 at 9:34 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Sorry Nameer - this comment:

"I think the thing about Chalmers' high APG and A/TO ratio that cheapens it in the eyes of scouts is how many alley-oops KU did (I'm sure Chalmers averaged around 1 alley-oop assist per game) and how talented the rest of the players around him were."

demonstrates a lack of understanding of the game. To assist you I offer you the New Orleans Hornets. Nearly everyone in the league agrees that Chris Paul was the best point guard in the NBA last year. How did he get his assists? Many were lobs to Chandler and West. How does that cheapen his achievement? The art of the lob is timing and as you might have noticed is not a skill the average college or pro point guard has these days. The object is to put the ball through the hoop and the player that facilitates that is never cheapened by his success.

Ok - rant over. Mario is a fine point guard. We all know he was the top ranked point guard nationally in his class coming to KU. That he played mostly combo guard at KU has done nothing but enhance his skills and value. No other point guard in this draft possesses the offensive efficiency and defensive dominance brought by Mario. No point guard is immediately successful in the NBA. Even Chris Paul and New Orleans needed two years to emerge. Mario (as well as his teammates) has been taught fundamental basketball, both offensively and defensively, at KU and is ready to now adjust to the bigger, stronger, faster and more experienced players in the NBA. In a few years he will emerge as a strong piece with a contender.

If you want to look up a former NBA player that is similar to Mario, google Terry Porter. He was simply excellent in all areas and Mario seems to be as well.

I do want to thank Mario for three terrific years at KU. It has been a joy to watch you play. I remember when you signed you said Aaron Miles was your role model. You certainly lived up to that vision. Future great guards will come to KU to be like Mario!

Thanks Mr. Woodling for the very strong endorsement of my favorite player. Your encouragement is noted and your judgment is noted as well. Perhaps you can get your headline writers to be a bit more honest in the future?

Posted by garybedore (Gary Bedore) on June 18, 2008 at 11:35 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Don't undertstand those who have fire in their eyes about Chuck's take.
If Mario does play point in the NBA, there is no guarantee he's going to be a star. He might need some seasoning in the NBADL.
I do have a hunch he's going to be picked between 15 and 20, however, and that will guarantee he's an important part of a team right off the bat.
It's no secret 6-1 guards are "a dime a dozen." That's been a fact in years past. I think Chalmers is going to be drafted higher than expected, but it's fair to question whether he'll make it or not at point guard, don't you think?

Posted by frisbeenation (anonymous) on June 19, 2008 at 12:39 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Gonna be a great draft this year.

Posted by ralsterKUMed95 (anonymous) on June 19, 2008 at 9:46 a.m. (Suggest removal)

I will reinforce I think one of the BEST comparisons, just for the sake of discussion: Mario may explode like Kirk Hinrich did in the NBA. Granted he may be an inch or so shorter, but the amount of aggression with which he attacked the rim surpassed Rush until late in the season when Rush caught up (knee). Equal aggression to Langford, but much better shooting and defense, and assists. And WHO would have thought Rondo would be thriving in the League. Cant we all surely see Mario doing whatever Rondo does. I admit this is a superficial comparison as finding the "right fit" and team with a agreeable offensive/defensive philosophy is key to getting your star to shine. I think Mario will shine. Look at his assist/TO ratio, AND he was a scorer, AND a defensive artist. Robinson's stats are equally impressive, except for scoring, and that is hurting Russ's chances right now. But I think Mario (or Russell) would be equally adept at getting any team's superstars the ball/scoring opportunities--the same thing Mario and Russ did at KU.

Posted by actorman (anonymous) on June 19, 2008 at 2:50 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Isn't Kirk 6'5", or am I wrong? If that's the case then he's four inches taller than Mario, not just one.

That being said, I'm still quite confident that Mario will do very well in the NBA. I think most KU fans would agree that he was consistently the best player on the team this year and didn't get nearly the credit he deserved from the national media, partly because he doesn't make a lot of noise about himself.

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