Advertisement

Monday, April 9, 2007

Keegan

Keegan: Wright not KU’s key cog

By Tom Keegan

Advertisement

The first domino is on its way to the ground. If that's where the tumbling stops, the Kansas University basketball team still shapes up as Final Four-caliber next season. That's a pretty big "if," since it was Julian Wright, not Brandon Rush, who was the first to decide he is leaving for the NBA.

As talented and enthusiastic as he is, Wright was not the most indispensable player on the Jayhawks. Rush, largely because of his shut-down defensive abilities against anybody from a shooting guard to a finesse power forward, would be the most difficult player to replace. Even if Wright had come back, there would be no easy answer to the question of where KU would turn to replace Rush. Answering how to replace Wright is easier. Darrell Arthur is not the passer Wright is and not yet the rebounder, but he is a better shooter and similarly gifted athlete.

Wright, who averaged 7.5 points and 4.5 rebounds in the two West regional games in San Jose, Calif., repeatedly said after the loss to UCLA that he was "100 percent" certain he would return for his junior season. He changed his mind, as is his right. Assuming he doesn't change it back, and assuming no shockers (Arthur, Mario Chalmers) follow him out the door, Rush's decision becomes the X factor that defines Kansas as either a top-five team or a top-20 one.

Of course, that reality can't factor in Rush's decision because his financial future could depend on him making the right call.

First, consider what KU's lineup would look like with Rush back for his junior season. He would join two of the three star guards (Chalmers, Russell Robinson, Sherron Collins), plus Darrell Arthur and either Darnell Jackson or Sasha Kaun in the starting lineup. Cole Aldrich, ready or not, lends help up front. Brady Morningstar, Rod Stewart, Jeremy Case, Tyrel Reed and walk-on Conner Teahan compete for the final spot in the rotation.

That's the best-case scenario, and not a bad one. It's not the most likely one. It appears Rush is in a spot where he will need to hear a compelling reason to return to school, rather than needing to be talked into seeking an NBA career.

Rush shut down USC's Nick Young, slowed Texas freshman Kevin Durant and took Florida's Joakim Noah out of the game for a long stretch. All three of them are lottery possibilities. Nobody left on the Kansas roster matches Rush's defensive presence. Morningstar is the closest among replacement candidates to being an offensive play-alike. Even so, not too many teams could boast a starting five as fast as Collins, Robinson, Chalmers, Arthur and Jackson. It would have an undersized underdog quality to it. It wouldn't win 33 games, but it wouldn't be boring.

High turnover is the cost of doing business at the elite level and a big factor in the increase of parity in college basketball. Losing players early to the NBA makes a school all the more appealing to high school stars, and the cycle repeats. Land a class of big-time recruits. Break them of bad habits the first year. Sweat out the next season, knowing it's the best shot at the Final Four with that group. Retool for a year. Land another huge class. Rinse and repeat.

Expect a monster recruiting haul for Kansas next November, then relax and watch a smallish, quick team contend for a Big 12 title.

More like this

Comments

frompekka2sasha (anonymous) says...

Julian must have someone in his ear telling him what to do. I am guessing it might be his father since we know his mother has been firmly in favor of him graduating from college first.

I don't fault Julian for his decision. I question whether it was HIS decision.

April 9, 2007 at 8:25 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

hawkitup (anonymous) says...

I actually agree with Keegan on this one. Wright can be replaced but it would be a lot harder of a blow to lose Rush. i really hope he stays.

April 9, 2007 at 8:44 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

jpstrayer (anonymous) says...

I agree with Keegan...if Rush leaves along with Wright, then expect a monster 2008 class. The blue chip recruits want playing time above all else...losing Rush and Wright along with the Seniors graduating next year will allow KU to offer oddles and oddles of playing time and opportunity.

April 9, 2007 at 8:57 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

emeryhawk (anonymous) says...

I agree Wright is more dispensible than Rush given our current personnel. Still, I think he's the most exciting player to watch on this team when his game is on. I'll be really disappointed to see him go, as he's a high character guy in addition to being an elite player.

April 9, 2007 at 10:23 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

KU (anonymous) says...

Wright would be wrong to stay.

1. He can always finish up the 2 semesters of work he needs to get his degree during the next few summers. He's a bright kid.
2. If he has another "subpar" year at KU next year, he could play his way out of the lottery for 2008. He's never been consistent enough at this level, despite his sparkling "potential". I think this is his biggest fear. I can't blame him. Who among us would not jump at the chance for a guaranteed 3 year contract making millions of dollars?!
3. The prospect for injury.

It's a no-lose proposition for him to go now. Thanks for a couple of good years and a few games where we saw the "beast" in you come out.

April 9, 2007 at 11:11 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

truefan (anonymous) says...

I agree with both emery and KU. I would hate to see him go because he is an all around good guy, but at the same time I can completely understand why he would consider the draft. I hope he just tests the waters without hiring an agent and then comes back to KU with something to prove. That's just selfish talk though, I wish him the best no matter how it plays out.

April 9, 2007 at 12:07 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

DCHawk (anonymous) says...

I totally disagree with Keegan. Rush is awesome but there are almost no other players like Wright in the college game. When he is on, he is the toughest match-up for any team to defend. We have to assume he would get better over the off-season and would become more consistent, making him even more difficult to defend. Think of him during the Florida game. Our thoughts of UCLA are clouding our judgment too much..

Rush is unbelievable defensively but Wright changes the entire offense, he busts zones, and changes the other team's defensive strategies. Rush has similar qualities to a number of guys out there - he is just a bit better than most at those qualities.

April 9, 2007 at 12:20 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

martyks (anonymous) says...

Huh? If he has another sub par year? Hey, if he has a sub par year in the pros, he'll be sitting the bench there for a long, long time. We need Rush more than Wright, but Wright's departure increases the likelihood Rush leaves too. So, it isn't something to compare. He's not gone until he's gone. People do hold press conferences for no reason sometimes, don't they? uh yeah, right.

April 9, 2007 at 12:51 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

KU (anonymous) says...

Marty......I'd be glad to sit on the bench in the League for a long time IF I got there as a Lottery Pick. Wouldn't you? You could pay your personal physician to pick a lot of splinters out of your back-end for $3,000,000/yr. It would sure beat going to the office every day and pounding out $200,000/yr.

April 9, 2007 at 1:22 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

jehillia (anonymous) says...

Well said DC Hawk...has anyone else seen what our zone offense looks like when Julian is not in the game...it suffers dramatically. I will definitely miss Rush's defense...there are not too many 6'6 forward/gaurds like Rush that come around often...but Wright will be missed more than people realize. "Replacing" one or the other I can live with...but replacing both.....OUCH

April 9, 2007 at 1:49 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

JayCeph (anonymous) says...

$200,000 a year? I'll take it...

April 9, 2007 at 2:09 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

blogthis (anonymous) says...

Our three best NBA prospects are Chalmers, Collins and
Arthur.

Wright & Rush lack the basic ball handling skills needed to get to the next level. Rush probably has a better chance because of his defensive skills but has to be "reminded" to play well way too much! Rush needs learn to create his own shot which is a must in the NBA.

Julian better take his "beast" game to the show every night or it will be "pine time"

April 9, 2007 at 3:57 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

johnballa (anonymous) says...

I think that Julian is a worse loss than Brandon. It seems that the last time I saw BRush with the killer instinct in him was vs. Kentucky... last year. Julian always seemed to love to be at KU. He acted like it was an honor to put that jersey on. I'm just pretty disapointed because, I really thought he was going to be one special player. And lead KU back to where we haven't been since '88.

And there is no way that Collins is one of our best NBA prospects, he needs at least 2 years of college, which truly showed in the tournament.

April 9, 2007 at 8:03 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

KU (anonymous) says...

blogthis......I think you're on track wtih your assessment of the NBA potential of KU's players.

Wright and Rush don't really have a position at the next level where you can see them plugging in--even 4 yrs down the road--and starting in an NBA system.

Having said that, you still can't blame them for going for the cash!

April 10, 2007 at 9:09 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

Rock_Chalk_25 (anonymous) says...

I will miss Julian and agree it will be very tough to replace, but on the other hand Rush would be nearly impossible to replace. If Arthur can step in and play like he did the first half of the season then we won't lose a thing. If Rush leaves, we will replace him with no one taller than 6-2 (Collins, Chalmers, or Robinson). With three guards under 6-2 I don't see how we could pull off a run at the championship.

April 14, 2007 at 9:25 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

JayhawkLite (anonymous) says...

Too many people look at the offensive capabilities of Rush, overlooking his defensive abilities. Good article.

April 14, 2007 at 11:47 a.m. ( | suggest removal )