Tuesday, December 12, 2006

Keegan

Keegan: KU overrated after shaky start

By Tom Keegan

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Obviously, it's not where a team is ranked during the season that matters, it's where it's seeded come tournament time. Still, as long as a Top 25 is released on a weekly basis, it would be nice for teams to earn their rankings by performance on the court, rather than on reputation.

In a couple of cases in the Associated Press poll released Monday, that wasn't the case.

Defending national champion Florida has destroyed a number of so-so teams, but has lost twice - to Kansas University and to Florida State - and based on its performance this season, doesn't deserve to be ranked No. 5 in the nation.

The next most overrated team, so far? Kansas.

The Jayhawks looked like a Final Four contender in defeating Florida in overtime in Las Vegas, but what else have they done to merit being ranked No. 11 in the country?

Not much. Their second-best victory came in Allen Fieldhouse against a solid USC team. That was a good ugly victory, as opposed to the bad ugly one against undersized Toledo in Kemper Arena.

KU's two losses, at home to Oral Roberts and on the road against DePaul, should have done more damage than they did. Wichita State coach Mark Turgeon was right in surmising that if his team had lost to those two schools, it wouldn't be in the top 50.

DePaul wins at home, but is 0-5 in road games, losing to Bradley by 20 points and Northwestern by 10 points at the start of the season and also losing on the homecourts of Kentucky, Purdue and Alabama-Birmingham.

Oral Roberts has lost to Loyola Marymount, Tulsa, Akron and Georgetown.

A look at four teams ranked behind Florida and KU that deserve to be ranked ahead of them, based on what they've done on the court this season, regardless of how they finished last season or how much was written about them in the preseason magazines:

15. Oklahoma State (11-0): Skilled wide-body Mario Boggan is averaging 20.5 points per game, and JamesOn Curry, looking much better than during his sophomore-slump season, is scoring 17.7 a game. The Cowboys have three quality road victories (Auburn, Missouri State, Syracuse) and have shown they know how to get it done in close games.

As is the case with Texas A&M and Texas, the two other strong teams from the Big 12 South, the Cowboys play Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse, which bodes well for the Jayhawks' chances of finishing with the best record in the Big 12, provided they can dial up their defensive intensity to the level it was at during Big 12 play last season.

16. Gonzaga (9-2): The Bulldogs drilled Washington by 20 points, Texas by 10 points and North Carolina by eight. And their only losses were to once-beaten Washington State and once-beaten Butler.

18. Butler (10-1): These Bulldogs have an even stronger case for moving up the rankings, despite a recent loss at Indiana State. Butler was the hottest team in the nation early, defeating Notre Dame, Indiana, Tennessee and Gonzaga.

21. Notre Dame (7-1): The lone loss for the Fighting Irish was to Butler, which has been more than offset with victories over Maryland and Alabama.

Chances are KU will be better than each of those four teams in March, but so far they should be ranked behind them.

Comments

cafranci (anonymous) says...

Butler didn't beat Illinois; they beat Illinois-Springfield (and just barely).

December 12, 2006 at 8:30 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

JayCeph (anonymous) says...

A 'W' is a 'W' and it was probably against a team they were supposed to beat.

Don't poo-poo the little teams if you can't beat 'em.

December 12, 2006 at 9:15 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

lalawguy (anonymous) says...

I admit that I am putting a lot of stock in the outcome of the BC game a week from Saturday. BC just happens to be a top-25 caliber team that is overshadowed by a half dozen other teams in its conference that are actually ranked. If KU can pull out a win against the Eagles (even if it's an ugly win), I will have a lot more confidence in this team going into the conference schedule.

December 12, 2006 at 10:49 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

rhagg (anonymous) says...

Mark Turgeon is right...if his team didn't beat both of those teams his tema wouldn't be in the top 50. But you have to play and beat teams like FL to offset those types of losses. I am getting sick of these mid-major teams complaining all the time about the respect they don't receive. get over it.

December 12, 2006 at 11:19 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

Hawk007 (anonymous) says...

I believe Depaul lost to Kentucky and Purdue in the Maui Invitational, not on their homecourt.

December 12, 2006 at 12:09 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

tomike (anonymous) says...

The dangerous thing is a reporter thought he is an expert.

December 12, 2006 at 12:53 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

cobweb (anonymous) says...

Sounds like Turgeon is campaigning for Self's job.

December 12, 2006 at 2:08 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

RonBurgandy (anonymous) says...

Keegan is right.

December 12, 2006 at 2:26 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

klineisanazi (anonymous) says...

KU is overrated, for what it is worth this time of year. As for Turgeon, he is probably right. The voters are obviously giving KU a lot credit for the Florida win. I dont think Turgeon is campaigning for Self's job. He is only sticking up for his team. He knows that Billy Packer and the rest of the ACC mafia are ready to pounce come selection Sunday. I for one have enjoyed watching WSU play. They set screens, switch on defense, rebound, and are patient on offense. If they land a good seed, which the will barring a collapse in the MVC, they have as good a chance as anyone at the Final Four.

December 12, 2006 at 2:40 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

hoops101 (anonymous) says...

KU is very overrated and has done nothing to deserve their ranking except have the letters Kansas on the front of their jersey

December 12, 2006 at 3:17 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

webprince (anonymous) says...

If you look at Pomeroy's ratings, which only use this season's data (i.e., accomplishments, not preseason accolades), you'll see that KU is rated #12. I find those ratings to be more valid than any other quantitative rating system. So, I disagree with this article (Florida is #1 in those ratings). Losses are of course bad, but a team's strength is what's important in ratings. If you want a ratings system that's like a resume, ok then, look at Sagarin's ratings but focus on the "elo_chess" column. That's the one where all that matters is wins and losses. Based on that, KU is #75 ... and that's also fine if all you care about are wins and losses and not trying to assess team strength.

December 12, 2006 at 8:10 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

turdferguson (anonymous) says...

Can we just schedule WSU to a home and home and get it over with? They have earned it and I'm tired of hearing about how much money we would lose by doing that. That excuse pisses me off and makes KU look greedy and gutless. I really think Self is worried that WSU would win, and that would make Turgeon look really good in front of a lot of KU boosters.

December 12, 2006 at 8:17 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

ibrown3 (anonymous) says...

Honestly, with the way KU has played this entire season, with the exception of the blowout games over unknown teams and the win over Florida (that was a fluke,) I don't think KU should even be ranked in the top 20 and they should be lucky to get a spot between 21 and 25.. I'm actually going to have to agree with Keegan on this one. All of his facts may not be straight, but he is right about one thing, KU is extremely overrated.

December 12, 2006 at 8:26 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

jimjones (anonymous) says...

We need to quit dancing around the obvious. We don't lack for talent. Fire Self and move on.

December 12, 2006 at 8:29 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

RaefLafrentz45 (anonymous) says...

Seriously, KU is fine in the polls. They did beat Florida, who are the defending National Champs. I do believe that they are returning most of their starters...if not all of them. The only true test of ranking will come in March.

December 12, 2006 at 9:36 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

jaybate (anonymous) says...

Well, at least Tom Keegan didn't suggest KU needs to get "nasty" about being overrated.

Now regarding what Keegan did say: KU at 11 is probably not overrated. KU at 2-3? Vastly overrated. KU lacks depth and has only one gimpy center. KU's trey shooting percentage is way below last year. KU between 11 and 15 is about right until they put it together...if they do.

Next, Notre Dame should not be ranked ahead of KU. Notre Dame would not even be ranked if it were called Butler.

And this is one of Tom Keegan's better efforts this basketball season.

Perhaps Tom is going through something like Brandon Rush is going through. Maybe he's in a tough patch and he will have to write his way out of it the way Brandon will have to shoot his way out.

December 12, 2006 at 10:39 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

cafranci (anonymous) says...

"Posted by JayCeph (anonymous) on December 12, 2006 at 9:15 a.m. (Suggest removal)

A 'W' is a 'W' and it was probably against a team they were supposed to beat.

Don't poo-poo the little teams if you can't beat 'em."

I was simply correcting Keegan, who made the mistake in the article and thus misrepresented the strength of Butler's schedule. Illinois-Springfield is not a good basketball team. Illinois is pretty good.

December 13, 2006 at 8:41 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

KanKu (anonymous) says...

It would cost a lot to fire Self now. I've been a Self-advocate since that coach left. After next season I will definately be questioning Self if he doesn't produce more than he has the last couple of years.....But, Kansas will hit their stride this year and they'll have a decent tourney run.

December 13, 2006 at 10:14 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

kubasketballnut (anonymous) says...

It is early and sometimes it takes time for a team with "too much talent" a little longer to figure it all out. I don't think Bill Self would have gotten to where he is at if he couldn't handle the job. His recruiting has been fantastic. Sure he has lost some players but those that are gone we will be better off without. All the people that were after Roy Williams head are now singing his praises...especially since he finally won a national title.
Lighten up people let's give these kids a chance to grow up and the coaches a chance to bring them up to championship level. We have a great program and I think at the end of the year everyone will be singing Bill Self's praises and saying Roy Who?

December 18, 2006 at 11:17 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

remlap101 (anonymous) says...

Well said kubasketballnut. Self definitely needs to stay. He is among the best of the best in NCAA BB coaches and we should remember that. His players on the other hand seem to have moved on to the next level mentally. This has to be a major problem for any coach these days. How do you keep your players head in college ball when they are continually bombarded with pro ball scatter. The NBA is managing to lower it's standards right before our eyes and zoning in on ticket sellers who have not developed at the college level because they don't have too. Self has got my vote to keep on keepin on. By the way, I am and always will be a Roy W. fan.

December 19, 2006 at 7:45 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

EternalHawk (anonymous) says...

Why can't we just watch these guys play and enjoy it. Who cares about rankings and hype and all that crap. I get sick of all the over-analyzing that goes on. Just enjoy the talented players we have and get over it. There is way too much paridy in college basketball these days to worry about this nonsense. Write something positive about our Jayhawks for once. Rock Chalk!!

December 19, 2006 at 8:37 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

chase353 (anonymous) says...

Why don't KU fans just come out and really say what upsets them. It's has more to do with Roy then Bill. Roy left and gave UNC what we wanted (be mad at Roy not Bill). I don't like the way the season ended the last couple of years, but it happens. I love KU basketball and the players, I like Bill, and I like being Big 12 Champs. There is nothing better then beating up on Missouri, K-State, and Texas, and Bill puts a lot into the Big 12 season.
So come on guys stop sounding like K-State fans wanting respect. We have respect everytime KU walks onto a court they have the bullseye on them it makes others guys season to beat ku. go hawks.

December 19, 2006 at 9:30 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

jhawksteve (anonymous) says...

EternalHawk, you are dead on!!! All of the ranking don't mean a thing. Perhaps the selection committee uses these when setting the torunament seeds. Otherwise the ranking are just a source of hype and something upon which sport writers comment. Like you said who cares?

December 19, 2006 at 10:07 a.m. ( | suggest removal )

BABBOY (anonymous) says...

Eternalhawk is basically right. We should write positive things and further it is the players not what we write that will decide the outcome. But, if one is looking for positive outcomes, then you are not going to find many on posting which people use basically to vent their opinions. Incidentally, there is nothing wrong with venting opinions in that is freedom is all about. The people attacking Bill Self or mad about the terrible play are not saying these things because they do not care. In fact, the problem is that they care too much and their perspective is a little out of whack. I fall victim to this and have suggested that we should hire Turgeon because Bill Self has not shown that he can motivate anybody. He is nice guy -- but has no passion.

I cannot remember the name of the assistant coach who left Self's staff and went to be head coach at St. Johns (I think) but the team has not been the same since he left with two first round exits from the tournament. I do not have any other explanation for losing to DePaul and Oral Roberts other then not being prepared. I do think beating Florida off sets not showing up for two others games and losing for those two teams. Frankly, I think Dartmouth was our best game because Self actually had them prepared for a game they could have taken for granted. Keegan is completely right and the team has proven they deserve to be ranked as high as they were at the start of the season or now.

The fact is that they have lost two games and have likely ruined their chances for a number one seed which could hurt them in tournament. The best solution is simple. Bill Self can shut everyone up including me by starting a winning streak and having team ready to play every game. If they lose, but clearly gave their best effort I fine with it. Sorry, enternalhawk, I wish I had your perspective on this issue but that is a positive as I can get from I have seen so far this year.

December 19, 2006 at 6:47 p.m. ( | suggest removal )