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The dance is all that is the case

Regional final: KU-UCLA

By Patrick Quinn
March 23, 2007 | 2 comments

Last night Southern Illinois succeeded in imposing their tempo on the Jayhawks, just as they have imposed their tempo on opponents all season long. At 62 possessions, the game was played substantially slower than KU would've preferred. In fact, most of the relevant metrics last night went the way the Salukis wanted them to go. SIU's spectacular defense held KU to an offensive efficiency of 97.5 (more than 20 points below the Jayhawks' season average), forced 19 turnovers and, most strikingly, outrebounded Kansas 28-22.

Big ups to the Salukis for playing an attacking, frenetic defensive game that looked enough to beat almost anyone. The whole team played well, and the Salukis were well-coached.

All of which is to say that KU played SIU's game--and won. It wasn't pretty, but last night's win might be my favorite of the season.

Ken Pomeroy's snazzy High-Definition Box Score includes a "plus/minus" metric that reveals how the score margin changed during each player's minutes on the floor. Last night's data indicates that Darnell Jackson, Darrell Arthur and Mario Chalmers played big. Russell Robinson's plus/minus of +1 doesn't encompass his critical on-court leadership, which was on display over and over last night. (Never argue w/ a win, but I was puzzled by Sasha Kaun's limited minutes.) I think Bill Self coached a fantastic game in dismissing the class of the Valley.

The recap at Phog Blog is here. There are concerns. "That makes it three out of the last four games in which Kansas has failed to grab even 60% of possible offensive rebounds. It wasn’t huge factor in either the Big 12 Championship game against Texas or against Kentucky as Kansas outshot both of those teams while also turning the ball over less often. Against a good defensive team, it almost proved costly."

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Kansas-UCLA in the regional final is Hoops Heaven. It's only natural to exhale after last night's slugfest, but that wouldn't be wise: UCLA's defensive efficiency of 84.4 makes the Bruins the number 2 defense in Division I, just a smidgen behind KU's 82.0. (SIU's season-average DE of 86.5 was good for number 10 in D-I.) Although the Bruins play at a slightly faster pace than the glacial Salukis, they're still slower than the Jayhawks--UCLA averages 64.1 possessions per game, which puts them in the slowest 20 percent of D-I. This will be another hard-nosed defensive contest.

On the offensive end KU possesses a slightly larger statistical advantage, but it's still vy close. Kansas is playing at a season-average OE of 118.8--that's 12th best in D-I. UCLA has registered an OE of 116.7--number 22 in D-I. KU's preference for a faster tempo aside, these two teams look so much alike it's scary.

I think this game gets into the 70s, and I think Kansas wins in the paint.

KU 77, UCLA 71

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Jayhawk fans looking for a little something to get their motor running are encouraged to check out Dennis Dodd's sophomoric (and not entirely coherent) screed at Sportsline.com. Dodd, a Mizzou alum, makes Dick Vitale look like Edward R. Murrow.

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Rebounds rebounds rebounds. Free throws free throws free throws. Rebounds rebounds rebounds. Free throws free throws free throws.... and so on and so on and so on.

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