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The dance is all that is the case

Up next: Kentucky

By Patrick Quinn
March 17, 2007

Lots to like yesterday, lots of encouraging performances, I loved the long-range gunnery. I loved the fast break. (We played very fast, more on this below.) The Purple Eagles impressed me w/ their persistent intensity in the face of an insurmountable lead, but they were gassed midway through the second period--who wouldn't have been? KU was relentless.

I liked what I saw from the reserves in the last five minutes.

The Jayhawks flew like fighter planes. Pomeroy's rule of thumb holds that a typical DI game includes about 70 possessions per team; a "slow" game features about 60 possessions per team, a "fast" game features about 80 possessions per team. Pomeroy has also developed a handy little formula (scroll down to the bottom of the stats page) that offers a good approximation using box score data:

Possessions = FGA - OR + TO + .475*FTA

Running the formula on yesterday's numbers for both teams and averaging the results leads to an estimated possession number (assuming my math is correct) of 86+ -- and boy howdy that's a fast fast basketball game. Coach Self recently told reporters that he wished the team was playing a little faster, and yesterday he got his wish.

Kansas shot well yesterday. The box score showed the 'Hawks shooting 40-74, or 54 percent from the floor. Even more impressive was KU's effective field goal percentage--a metric that incorporates the added value of three-point shots. KU shot 13-22 from downtown, which makes for an EFG of almost 64 percent. (Some of this must be attributed to indifferent defense. Niagara, as noted yesterday, was in the bottom third of DI this season in defensive efficiency. Tennessee put up even better numbers yesterday, dropping 121 points on a Long Beach State team that, like Niagara, doesn't play much defense.)

Sunday the Jayhawks face the Kentucky Wildcats, a much more formidable challenge. The Wildcats (21-11) feature a top-20 offense (OE 117.8) and a top-30 defense (DE 90.6) and are 5-9 this season against the top 50. Pomeroy has them at number 16.

Last night's win over Villanova (Pomeroy #20) was probably their best of the season, given the curious remarks recently emnating from the office of the Kentucky AD, but they also beat Louisville (#13) and Indiana (#17) in December. Kentucky played four top-10 teams this season and lost five times: to UCLA, Memphis, North Carolina and Florida (twice). Last week they fell to Mississippi State in the SEC title game by two points in overtime.

PJ says:

OK, we beat the living crap out of Niagara.

Now, I want Kentucky...want 'em bad. Why?

The ghost of Kyle Macy still haunts me from three decades ago. Perfect hair, perfect free throw form to convert a stupid technical foul into a win, perfectly childish illusions about the invincibility of the 1978 Jayhawks crushed in 30 seconds. Must...exorcise...ghost.

Hope Kyle's in the crowd on Sunday to witness what I suspect will be a methodical dissection of the 'Cats. Also hope his 48-year-old hair really sucks.

The defensive goal has to be controlling Randolph Morris, and we have the bodies to do so. This looks like the best game in the second round.

KU 74, UK 65

I don't understand the free throw thing, never have, never will.